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Are we alone in our galaxy? Are we alone in our universe? Not a 'chance'?



 
 
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  #1  
Old May 26th 11, 05:43 AM posted to sci.astro,talk.philosophy.misc,alt.atheism,alt.talk.creationism,alt.alien.research
Carl Sagan's billions
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Posts: 10
Default Are we alone in our galaxy? Are we alone in our universe? Not a 'chance'?

'Statistically impossible' is incorrect.
'Statistically highly unlikely' is better phrasing.

The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. Of course these numbers are wild guesses.


With 200 billion galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars, there
are roughly 20,000 billion billion stars in our visible universe.
That is 20,000 - 000,000,000 - 000,000,000 stars.

Of course, it could be 2,000 or even 200,000 billion billion stars.
These numbers are rough extrapolations only as billions of stars
and billions of galaxies are not visible.

Let's assume there are 20,000 billion billion stars.
Also assume each galaxy has at least one planet with intelligent life
on it (at our level or better) (this is a very very conservative
guess) then there are 200, 000,000,000 civilizations in the visible
universe.

How many of these would be 1 million or 10 million or 100 million
years ahead of us, assuming the universe is approximately 15 billion
years old and 100 million years is only 0.66% of this total time
span?

100 million years is only 0.66% of the total time span!

So it is easy to contemplate that there can be millions of those
civilizations 1% or 1 or 10 million years or more ahead of us. Of
course, out of the 200 billion civilizations 99% or more may have
been destroyed or have become extinct.

So if we assume that only 1% avoided destruction, that still
leaves 2 billion civilizations that survived, colonized other
galaxies and/or are still traveling through space for millions
of years.

Assuming some are in galaxies over 1 billion light years away from
our Milky Way galaxy, then if they traveled e.g. in cryogenic
state for over 500 million years at the speed of light, they still
would not have reached us. This assumes that speed of light is the
upper limit.

Traveling in cryogenic state would also not age the travelers.
In addition, these travelers would basically be immortal,
being able to grow organs, limbs, etc., whenever needed. In addition,
they could return to their home galaxy after millions of years (if
they wanted) and still find the beings/friends they left behind as
those would not have aged either. Mind boggling.

In a nutshell, the numbers are so huge, even if you multiply a very
low probability factor times a very large number you will get a
sizable number. And I think that that probability factor is not that
small but much higher than one advanced planet per galaxy of
100 billion stars.

That means we are not alone in our own galaxy with its 200-500
billion stars. If I assume one 'more-advanced' civilization per 10
million stars, there would be 20,000 - 50,000 of such
'more-advanced' civilizations in our own galaxy.

Of course, all these numbers are wild guesses/speculations but
it's an illustration of the fact that when we talk about our galaxy
and our visible universe the numbers are 'astronomically' huge.

As the numbers are so huge = Carl Sagan's billions and billions,
or better billions TIMES billions, I believe that most galaxies
have many millions of habitable planets with life.

Many people don't understand very large numbers and
are not trained in statistics, and would immediately reject such
ideas. They cannot understand what billions TIMES billions
really represents. Even with low probabilities and massive
destruction of civilizations, the remaining numbers most
likely are still huge.

If you asked me to guess how many 'more-advanced' civilizations
there are in our own Milky Way, I would say many more than 20,000.

If you asked me why 'they' have not contacted us, I would say I don't
know, maybe we are not advanced enough - yet.

I find it a very exciting and intriguing idea that we most likely
have tens of thousands of advanced civilizations right in our
own galaxy.

I also realize the vastness of the universe and even the vastness
of our own galaxy. Our own galaxy's rough diameter is estimated
at over 100,000 light years! That means it takes light 100,000
years to travel from one side to the other side. Mind boggling.

And it takes a multiple of 100,000 years to travel to the nearest
large galaxy Andromeda. Even several million years - just to the
nearest large galaxy! And billions of years to travel
to the other side/'far side' (if there is one) of our universe.

Many people think we are alone in our galaxy, even in our universe.
However I am convinced that life (biological reproduction)
was created via and in material processes, probably via
intermediate stages of self-reproducing and interlinking molecules
to self-reproducing organisms and then to more complex
organisms, etc. Nowhere is a unique all-powerful creator
needed. Given billions of material processes over billions
of years, statistically some arising molecular structures will by
chance have self-reproducing properties, which get propagated.
Via those properties these structures over time will
mushroom into billions of structures, etc., etc..

Wherever there is matter and the right environment and
millions or billions of years, life will evolve from matter.
That means we are not unique, not uniquely created by a single
all-powerful God: We are here by chance. With 20,000
billion billion stars and with the age of our universe
approximately 15 billion years, life evolved billions of times.

Why we are here by chance, why matter exists, why we made
from matter exist, cannot be answered. However, although
we cannot answer that question, we do not need to
invent a powerful creator to explain it. Not being able
to answer a mystery is no argument for the
existence of a single powerful creator.

As I am convinced life can evolve from material processes,
life is abundant in our galaxy and abundant in our universe.
Even intelligent life. As primitive life competes for
resources, the more primitive civilizations likely will be
violent. Many advanced civilizations that have reached
biological immortality may not be, but I am not sure.
(I'll read Asimov on this soon)

With regards,
Michael M. Terra
  #2  
Old May 26th 11, 05:31 PM posted to sci.astro,talk.philosophy.misc,alt.atheism,alt.talk.creationism,alt.alien.research
[email protected][_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 13
Default Are we alone in our galaxy? Are we alone in our universe? Not a 'chance'?

On May 25, 11:43*pm, "Carl Sagan's billions"
wrote:
'Statistically impossible' is incorrect.
'Statistically highly unlikely' is better phrasing.

The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. *Of course these numbers are wild guesses.

With 200 billion galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars, there
are roughly 20,000 billion billion stars in our visible universe.
That is 20,000 - 000,000,000 - 000,000,000 stars.

Of course, *it could be 2,000 or even 200,000 billion billion stars.
These numbers are rough extrapolations only as billions of stars
and billions of galaxies are not visible.

Let's assume there are 20,000 billion billion stars.
Also assume each galaxy has at least one planet with intelligent life
on it *(at our level or better) (this is a very *very conservative
guess) then there are 200, 000,000,000 civilizations in the visible
universe.

How many of these would be 1 million or 10 million or 100 million
years ahead of us, assuming the universe is approximately 15 billion
years old and 100 million years is only 0.66% of this total time
span?

100 million years is only 0.66% of the total time span!

So it is easy to contemplate that there can be millions of those
civilizations 1% or 1 or 10 million years or more ahead of us. Of
course, out of the 200 billion civilizations 99% or more may have
been destroyed or have become extinct.

So if we assume that only 1% avoided destruction, that still
leaves 2 billion civilizations that survived, colonized other
galaxies and/or are still traveling through space for millions
of years.

Assuming some are in galaxies over 1 billion light years away from
our Milky Way galaxy, then if they traveled e.g. in cryogenic
state for over 500 million years at the speed of light, they still
would not have reached us. This assumes that speed of light is the
upper limit.

Traveling in cryogenic state would also not age the travelers.
In addition, these travelers would basically be immortal,
being able to grow organs, limbs, etc., whenever needed. In addition,
they could return to their home galaxy after millions of years (if
they wanted) and still find the beings/friends they left behind as
those would not have aged either. Mind boggling.

In a nutshell, the numbers are so huge, even if you multiply a very
low probability factor times a very large number you will get a
sizable number. *And I think that that probability factor is not that
small but much higher than one advanced planet per galaxy of
100 billion stars.

That means we are not alone in our own galaxy with its 200-500
billion stars. *If I assume one *'more-advanced' civilization per 10
million stars, there would be 20,000 - 50,000 of such
'more-advanced' civilizations in our own galaxy.

Of course, all these numbers are wild guesses/speculations but
it's an illustration of the fact that when we talk about our galaxy
and our visible universe the numbers are 'astronomically' huge.

As the numbers are so huge = Carl Sagan's billions and billions,
or better billions TIMES billions, I believe that most galaxies
have many millions of habitable planets with life.

Many people don't understand very large numbers and
are not trained in statistics, and would immediately reject such
ideas. They cannot understand what billions TIMES billions
really represents. Even with low probabilities and massive
destruction of civilizations, the remaining numbers most
likely are still huge.

If you asked me to guess how many 'more-advanced' civilizations
there are in our own Milky Way, I would say many more than 20,000.

If you asked me why 'they' have not contacted us, I would say I don't
know, maybe we are not advanced enough - yet.

I find it a very exciting and intriguing idea that we most likely
have tens of thousands of advanced civilizations right in our
own galaxy.

I also realize the vastness of the universe and even the vastness
of our own galaxy. Our own galaxy's rough diameter is estimated
at over 100,000 light years! *That means it takes light 100,000
years to travel from one side to the other side. Mind boggling.

And it takes a multiple of 100,000 years to travel to the nearest
large galaxy Andromeda. Even several million years - just to the
nearest large galaxy! *And *billions of years to travel
to the other side/'far side' (if there is one) of our universe.

Many people think we are alone in our galaxy, even in our universe.
However I am convinced that life (biological reproduction)
was created via and in material processes, probably via
intermediate stages of self-reproducing and interlinking molecules
to self-reproducing organisms and then to more complex
organisms, etc. *Nowhere is a unique all-powerful creator
needed. *Given billions of material processes over billions
of years, statistically some arising molecular structures will by
chance have self-reproducing properties, which get propagated.
Via those properties these structures over time will
mushroom into billions of structures, etc., etc..

Wherever there is matter and the right environment and
millions or billions of years, life will evolve from matter.
That means we are not unique, not uniquely created by a single
all-powerful God: * We are here by chance. *With 20,000
billion billion stars and with the age of our universe
approximately 15 billion years, life evolved billions of times.

Why we are here by chance, why matter exists, why we made
from matter exist, cannot be answered. *However, although
we cannot answer that question, we do not need to
invent a powerful creator to explain it. *Not being able
to answer a mystery is no argument for the
existence of a single powerful creator.

As I am convinced life can evolve from material processes,
life is abundant in our galaxy and abundant in our universe.
Even intelligent life. As primitive life competes for
resources, the more primitive civilizations likely will be
violent. Many advanced civilizations that have reached
biological immortality may not be, but I am not sure.
(I'll read Asimov on this soon)

With regards,
Michael M. Terra



If we arent alone, then the Creator also provided the razor edge
precise Physics Constants needed for their life also. If you have ONE
house in a field that requires a Creator/Designer...then multiple
homes in the field require a Creator/Designer and even moreso . It
doesnt negate the need for a Creator now does it ? Lastly, it has
been scientifically calculated that for there to be another simular
planet like Earth anywhere else in the Comsos , is a 10x99 th power
probability (That is 10 followed by 99 zeros ; thats how special
Earth has been fashioned . Even the very mass of the Universe is
absolutely necessary for earth to be here . Does this really interest
you ?? If so, find out the other hundred plus Physics Constants that
have been scientifically defined and measured and that ALL must work
together for earth to be here so we can have a place to call
home ...at : www.reasons.org Behold...'the heavens declare the
glory of God' and you can know him personally if you choose to.
  #3  
Old May 26th 11, 06:04 PM posted to sci.astro,talk.philosophy.misc,alt.atheism,alt.talk.creationism,alt.alien.research
Ken[_6_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2
Default Are we alone in our galaxy? Are we alone in our universe? Not a 'chance'?

On May 26, 9:31*am, "IlBenButt****ed @gmail.com" Dimswitted Dave
wrote the usual insane BULLCRAP which I snipped as a public service


When in the **** do you intent to show with even ONE bit of evidence
that your imaginary invisible fairy tale creatorDOG exists, Dicksucka?
  #4  
Old May 27th 11, 03:14 PM posted to sci.astro,talk.philosophy.misc,alt.talk.creationism,alt.alien.research
JessHC
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 6
Default Are we alone in our galaxy? Are we alone in our universe? Not a 'chance'?

On May 26, 9:31*am, " wrote:
On May 25, 11:43*pm, "Carl Sagan's billions"
wrote:



'Statistically impossible' is incorrect.
'Statistically highly unlikely' is better phrasing.


The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. *Of course these numbers are wild guesses.


With 200 billion galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars, there
are roughly 20,000 billion billion stars in our visible universe.
That is 20,000 - 000,000,000 - 000,000,000 stars.


Of course, *it could be 2,000 or even 200,000 billion billion stars.
These numbers are rough extrapolations only as billions of stars
and billions of galaxies are not visible.


Let's assume there are 20,000 billion billion stars.
Also assume each galaxy has at least one planet with intelligent life
on it *(at our level or better) (this is a very *very conservative
guess) then there are 200, 000,000,000 civilizations in the visible
universe.


How many of these would be 1 million or 10 million or 100 million
years ahead of us, assuming the universe is approximately 15 billion
years old and 100 million years is only 0.66% of this total time
span?


100 million years is only 0.66% of the total time span!


So it is easy to contemplate that there can be millions of those
civilizations 1% or 1 or 10 million years or more ahead of us. Of
course, out of the 200 billion civilizations 99% or more may have
been destroyed or have become extinct.


So if we assume that only 1% avoided destruction, that still
leaves 2 billion civilizations that survived, colonized other
galaxies and/or are still traveling through space for millions
of years.


Assuming some are in galaxies over 1 billion light years away from
our Milky Way galaxy, then if they traveled e.g. in cryogenic
state for over 500 million years at the speed of light, they still
would not have reached us. This assumes that speed of light is the
upper limit.


Traveling in cryogenic state would also not age the travelers.
In addition, these travelers would basically be immortal,
being able to grow organs, limbs, etc., whenever needed. In addition,
they could return to their home galaxy after millions of years (if
they wanted) and still find the beings/friends they left behind as
those would not have aged either. Mind boggling.


In a nutshell, the numbers are so huge, even if you multiply a very
low probability factor times a very large number you will get a
sizable number. *And I think that that probability factor is not that
small but much higher than one advanced planet per galaxy of
100 billion stars.


That means we are not alone in our own galaxy with its 200-500
billion stars. *If I assume one *'more-advanced' civilization per 10
million stars, there would be 20,000 - 50,000 of such
'more-advanced' civilizations in our own galaxy.


Of course, all these numbers are wild guesses/speculations but
it's an illustration of the fact that when we talk about our galaxy
and our visible universe the numbers are 'astronomically' huge.


As the numbers are so huge = Carl Sagan's billions and billions,
or better billions TIMES billions, I believe that most galaxies
have many millions of habitable planets with life.


Many people don't understand very large numbers and
are not trained in statistics, and would immediately reject such
ideas. They cannot understand what billions TIMES billions
really represents. Even with low probabilities and massive
destruction of civilizations, the remaining numbers most
likely are still huge.


If you asked me to guess how many 'more-advanced' civilizations
there are in our own Milky Way, I would say many more than 20,000.


If you asked me why 'they' have not contacted us, I would say I don't
know, maybe we are not advanced enough - yet.


I find it a very exciting and intriguing idea that we most likely
have tens of thousands of advanced civilizations right in our
own galaxy.


I also realize the vastness of the universe and even the vastness
of our own galaxy. Our own galaxy's rough diameter is estimated
at over 100,000 light years! *That means it takes light 100,000
years to travel from one side to the other side. Mind boggling.


And it takes a multiple of 100,000 years to travel to the nearest
large galaxy Andromeda. Even several million years - just to the
nearest large galaxy! *And *billions of years to travel
to the other side/'far side' (if there is one) of our universe.


Many people think we are alone in our galaxy, even in our universe.
However I am convinced that life (biological reproduction)
was created via and in material processes, probably via
intermediate stages of self-reproducing and interlinking molecules
to self-reproducing organisms and then to more complex
organisms, etc. *Nowhere is a unique all-powerful creator
needed. *Given billions of material processes over billions
of years, statistically some arising molecular structures will by
chance have self-reproducing properties, which get propagated.
Via those properties these structures over time will
mushroom into billions of structures, etc., etc..


Wherever there is matter and the right environment and
millions or billions of years, life will evolve from matter.
That means we are not unique, not uniquely created by a single
all-powerful God: * We are here by chance. *With 20,000
billion billion stars and with the age of our universe
approximately 15 billion years, life evolved billions of times.


Why we are here by chance, why matter exists, why we made
from matter exist, cannot be answered. *However, although
we cannot answer that question, we do not need to
invent a powerful creator to explain it. *Not being able
to answer a mystery is no argument for the
existence of a single powerful creator.


As I am convinced life can evolve from material processes,
life is abundant in our galaxy and abundant in our universe.
Even intelligent life. As primitive life competes for
resources, the more primitive civilizations likely will be
violent. Many advanced civilizations that have reached
biological immortality may not be, but I am not sure.
(I'll read Asimov on this soon)


With regards,
Michael M. Terra


If


If you had evidence for your assertions, you'd present it.
  #5  
Old May 28th 11, 05:11 PM posted to sci.astro,talk.philosophy.misc,alt.atheism,alt.talk.creationism,alt.alien.research
Albert Tatlock[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3
Default Are we alone in our galaxy? Are we alone in our universe? Nota...


"Jack McKinney" wrote in message
...
A response to (Carl Sagan's billions)..


All of your statistics are virtually meaningless, if life ...
intelligent life, has been created. Your numbers are based on the idea
of life evolving from random chance occurrences... But let's make the
assumption that intelligent life does arrive by random chance. And let's
use your estimate of 20,000 advanced civilizations in the Milky Way
galaxy...So where are the aliens... MY ANSWER, WE ARE THE ALIENS... The
Milky Way is only some 100,000 light years across, so *relatively
speaking* advanced civilizations wouldn't be that far away from the
earth, say 2,000 light years away, a figure that I pulled out of the
air, so I could be off; now the Milky Way Galaxy is some 13 billion
years old, so if just one of these advanced civilizations had a two
billion year head start on us, they could have colonized the entire
galaxy at a leisurely pace. They could have moved away from their home
planet and colonized the *most suitable* planets at the rate *one light
year in distance* every 10,000 years. At that rate just one advanced
civilization could have colonized the entire galaxy, and remember using
your numbers, their are some 20,000 such civilizations... so the most
suitable planets in the galaxy could have easily been colonized.

So I say that in all probability life on earth was created, or placed
here, even if the fairy tale of evolution were true.. WE ARE AN ONGOING
EXPERIMENT, AND THOSE IN CHARGE OF THE EXPERIMENT ARE NOT READY TO LET
US KNOW ABOUT IT..

Of course your post reflects a belief in the supremacy of matter,
spaceships, and a belief in time..

=======================

But is it all in your mind?

[Snip] As your perceptive mechanisms insist that objects are solid, for
example, so they insist that such things as space exists. Now what your
senses tell you about the nature of matter is entirely erroneous, and
what they tell you about space is equally wrong -- wrong in terms of
basic reality, but quite in keeping of course with three-dimensional
concepts. In out-of-body experiences from the living state, many of the
problems are encountered, in terms of space, that will be met after
death. And in such episodes, therefore, the true nature of time and
space become more apparent. After death it does not take time to go
through space, for example. Space does not exist in terms of distance.
This is illusion. There are barriers, but they are mental or psychic
barriers. For example, there are intensities of experience that are
interpreted in your reality as distance in miles.... Seth material


  #6  
Old May 29th 11, 08:18 PM posted to sci.astro,talk.philosophy.misc,alt.atheism,alt.talk.creationism,alt.alien.research
Carl Sagan's billions
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10
Default Are we alone in our galaxy? Are we alone in our universe? Nota...

MY ANSWER, WE ARE THE ALIENS...

So I say that in all probability life on earth was created, or placed
here, even if the fairy tale of evolution were true.. WE ARE AN ONGOING
EXPERIMENT, AND THOSE IN CHARGE OF THE EXPERIMENT ARE NOT READY TO LET
US KNOW ABOUT IT..

Evolution on earth is a fact. Yes, it's possible primitive life came
to
earth via comets, meteors/meteorites, ice rocks, etc., etc., and did
not originate here on earth. It's even possible it was 'planted'
here
by an advanced civilization as an experiment or accidentally and
then evolved.

However then you have to ask where did that advanced civilization
come from?

If you go far enough back, many could have been planted but there
is no all powerful creator who started it all.
That is just a made-up fairytale.

I am convinced that life is created from matter by always evolving
material
processes in many places throughout the galaxy and the universe.

When you talk billions of processes and billions of years,
statistically there is a high chance movable self-reproducing
molecules,
then movable self-reproducing organisms, etc., etc., will occur,
which
will propagate. Billions of these may be dead-ends but millions or
even billions may not be.

It basically comes down to a belief in an omni-present all powerful
'Creator' or a belief in provable scientific facts.

I believe God, the Creator, is a fairytale made up by
people that needed explanations for our existence, for
life and death, the existence of animals and plants, matter,
sun, moon, stars, etc.. I believe science has proven
time and again to have much better explanations.

  #7  
Old May 30th 11, 06:49 PM posted to sci.astro,talk.philosophy.misc,alt.atheism,alt.talk.creationism,alt.alien.research
Albert Tatlock[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3
Default Are we alone in our galaxy? ~~ How Long Would it Take

Jack McKinney wrote:
How long would it take for one advanced civilization to colonize an
entire galaxy... The answer is not very long ~~ relatively speaking
... if they started from the center of the galaxy... IN FACT IT COULD
HAPPEN IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE, SO TO SPEAK...

If this civilization had the capability of colonizing the 100 most
suitable planets every 1000 years, and then extending this distance
one light year every 1000 years, then the whole galaxy could be more
or less colonized in 50 million years ~~ since this galaxy has a
radius of 50,000 light years... and since 100 planets would be
colonized every 1000 years ~~ in 50 million years you could colonized
5 million planets....

If the average galaxy contains 100 of these advanced civilizations
then that *might* mean some 500 million colonized planets per
galaxy...

But the odds are a _WHOLE_ lot better than that, for after 10,000,000
years there would be 10,000 generations of these planned expansions,
WITH EACH GENERATION HAVING CREATED 100 ADDITIONAL CIVILIZATIONS ~~ so
to speak... So instead of just one civilization branching out 1 light
year every 1,000 years, you would have at the very least 1,000,000
different civilizations branching out one light year every 1,000 years
... and of course you would have branches within the branches...

What I getting at is this ~~ even if the theory of evolution were
true, and some such occurrence happened an average of once per
galaxy, the probability of life being created or deliberately placed
on any given planet would be quite high ... and BTW with so many
civilizations in each galaxy, the need to keep them separated might
be quite high; for each should be allowed to create their own
destiny...

Even with evolution, the probability of anything having evolved, as we
customarily think of evolution, .... subsequent to the initial
incident would be extremely small.

JUST A THOUGHT



  #8  
Old May 30th 11, 10:57 PM posted to sci.astro,talk.philosophy.misc,alt.atheism,alt.talk.creationism,alt.alien.research
Colanth
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 11
Default Are we alone in our galaxy? ~~ How Long Would it Take

On Mon, 30 May 2011 18:49:52 +0100, "Albert Tatlock"
wrote:

Jack McKinney wrote:
How long would it take for one advanced civilization to colonize an
entire galaxy...


As long as it wanted. You're asking for a calculation in which most
of the terms are unknown. How long COULD it take? Weeks if the
civilization were advanced enough, forever if they chose not to. Any
guess is purely a guess based on total lack of knowledge.
 




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