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#131
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Chris L Peterson: Why didn't you reply to this? was Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 20:40:40 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote: Here's some real world number for you: ... I picture you a bit over a century ago, standing on a soapbox in some town square, ranting about how automobiles will never replace horses, because of all the oil they require, and the impossibility of pumping that much from the ground, of refining so much, of the millions of dollars required to build fueling stations around the country. How the system is already set up for hay, and that is going to keep working. How buggy makers will completely dominate those silly makers of horseless carriages, with their economically impossible gasoline engines. Yup, you'd be the guy who hung onto your buggy whip manufacturer stock. |
#132
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
Chris L Peterson wrote in
: On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 20:39:17 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have become skeptical. The long term trend HAS been a steady rise. Except when it collapses. In point of fact, when adjusted for inflation, the price of crude has been remarkably stable, except for spikes caused by politics, not shortage of supply. Collapses and spikes are normal. Take them out, and you're left with a steady rise over the last 75+ years. When adjusted for inflation, no, not really. The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a minimum, seveal times as long to charge up. You seem to have ignored the part about not needing to fuel at a station. The vast majority of users will fuel at home, overnight, or at work while parked. And those who do use stations will seldom need to charge fully. No matter where you charge, the electricity isn't coming out of yoru ass. It sill has to be generated *somewhere*, and transmitted to where it is used. That's ten *trillion* kilowatt hours per year for the US. And that's in addition to current demand, which would require additional generating capacity to be built, and significant upgrades to the grid to handle the additional load. Producing the electricity isn't a real problem. Because you generate ten trillion kilowatt hours our of your ass? You are literally hallucinating. Your argument was about the load, which is a function of rate. The rate will not typically be high. The majority of charging will be in the hours after people get home from work, which is already a peak load time. You are literally halluicnating. In addition, home charging stations are not as fast charging as the 50 Kw stations used as the equivalent of a gas station. If you can manage a 30 amp station, you get about 30 miles of range per hour of charging. Not all homes can manage a 30 amp service. You don't typically need fast charging at home. And most will have access to charging at their destinations. How many employers are going to spend $40,000 _per employee_ to install charging stations? You are literally halluicnating. Indeed, one huge benefit a large electric car fleet provides is load normalization across the entire grid. Not when *everyone* is plugging their cars in at the same time. You are literally halluicnating. Economics will create a system with a huge number of public charging stations just for that reason. I'm sure they monkeys that fly out of your ass will get right to work on that. You are literally halluicnating. It doesn't matter if the car companies aren't making gasoline cars. Which isn't going to happen, even for the US market. Yes, it is. It's already happening. What car company isn't making gasolien powered cars now? (You will *never* answer that becase they answer is "none of them.") Gasoline cars will be the exception in 20 years, not the rule. And awkward as hell given that there won't be many filling stations. And expensive to operate given high carbon taxes. You are literally halluicnating. Take your meds, son. You *need* them. And you still haven't address the "at least ten times as long to "fill up" as a gasolien car, and that wil equipment that generates so much heat it has to be liquid cooled, and will explode if mishandled" issue, And you never, ever will, because there is no solution. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#133
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Chris L Peterson: Why didn't you reply to this? was Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
I note that you do not dispute a single word. That means you agree,
and *can't*. Thank you for admitting I'm right. Loser. You are literally halluicnating. Chris L Peterson wrote in : On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 20:40:40 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: Here's some real world number for you: ... I picture you a bit over a century ago, standing on a soapbox in some town square, ranting about how automobiles will never replace horses, because of all the oil they require, and the impossibility of pumping that much from the ground, of refining so much, of the millions of dollars required to build fueling stations around the country. How the system is already set up for hay, and that is going to keep working. How buggy makers will completely dominate those silly makers of horseless carriages, with their economically impossible gasoline engines. Yup, you'd be the guy who hung onto your buggy whip manufacturer stock. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#134
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Mon, 23 Oct 2017 08:21:00 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote: Collapses and spikes are normal. Take them out, and you're left with a steady rise over the last 75+ years. When adjusted for inflation, no, not really. Yes, really. http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crud...-history-chart Producing the electricity isn't a real problem. Because you generate ten trillion kilowatt hours our of your ass? The entire transportation sector currently consumes 600 billion kWh per year. And that's internal combustion. Electric vehicles are about three times more efficient. So take 200 billion kWh as the energy cost of transportation for an electric fleet. That represents just 5% of the U.S. total energy production. https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data...pdf/sec2_3.pdf How many employers are going to spend $40,000 _per employee_ to install charging stations? How much will a charging station cost when they are produced by the millions? As much as a desk? I doubt it. Indeed, one huge benefit a large electric car fleet provides is load normalization across the entire grid. Not when *everyone* is plugging their cars in at the same time. The reason normalization works is BECAUSE so many cars are plugged in at the same time! And you still haven't address the "at least ten times as long to "fill up" as a gasolien car, and that wil equipment that generates so much heat it has to be liquid cooled, and will explode if mishandled" issue, And you never, ever will, because there is no solution. Because it isn't going to happen. That's not what the technology is going to look like. |
#135
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
Chris L Peterson wrote in
: On Mon, 23 Oct 2017 08:21:00 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: Collapses and spikes are normal. Take them out, and you're left with a steady rise over the last 75+ years. When adjusted for inflation, no, not really. Yes, really. http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crud...-history-chart No, not really. Producing the electricity isn't a real problem. Because you generate ten trillion kilowatt hours our of your ass? The entire transportation sector currently consumes 600 billion kWh per year. I've already posted the numbers. State of the art cars like Tesla use 3 KwH/mile. Americans drove 3.2 trillion miles in 2015. That's ten trillion kilowatt hours. Deal with it, hallucination boy. Because it isn't going to happen. That's not what the technology is going to look like. To transfer enough energy into an electric car to drive 250 miles as quickly as you can transfer enough gas to drive the same would require a 3 megawatt cable. No amount of technology can alter the laws of physics. You are literally hallucinating. Get help. Seriously. You need psychiatric help. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#136
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Mon, 23 Oct 2017 10:09:26 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote: Yes, really. http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crud...-history-chart No, not really. The data is right there. Ignoring it doesn't change anything. The entire transportation sector currently consumes 600 billion kWh per year. I've already posted the numbers. State of the art cars like Tesla use 3 KwH/mile. Americans drove 3.2 trillion miles in 2015. That's ten trillion kilowatt hours. I'll stick with the actual numbers, not your assumed calculations. Deal with it, hallucination boy. Because it isn't going to happen. That's not what the technology is going to look like. To transfer enough energy into an electric car to drive 250 miles as quickly as you can transfer enough gas to drive the same would require a 3 megawatt cable. No amount of technology can alter the laws of physics. You can use multiple cables. You can charge slower. You can replace the entire battery. You can replace the electrolyte. You can use cable technology that cannot "explode" due to failures. You really lack imagination. |
#137
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Sunday, October 22, 2017 at 2:07:17 PM UTC-5, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote:
"Chris.B" wrote in : On Wednesday, 18 October 2017 20:19:14 UTC+2, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: snip the usual drivel The latest news is that polymers are being rapidly developed to allow present liquid batteries to become solid. Thus removing the volatility and dangers of fire and explosion associated with some popular rechargeable batteries. The polymer technology is expected to make rapid progress leading to early adoption. There is also a new carbon based battery which is looking very promising. Mankind's brightest has always provided an answer to our specific needs. Vastly more scientists, inventors and engineers are working today than at any time in human history. So, why aren't you? Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold up very well. http://tinyurl.com/y8q43uau http://driving.ca/auto-news/news/mot...-inconvenient- truths-on-banning-gas-engines? utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=lin k&ICID=ref_fark The short version: A gas station with 16 pumps (and there are a lot of those) would need 960 charging stations (coting $40,000 each) using current 50 kW technology. Porche is working ona 350 kW charging station, so that would reduce it to 128 stations (costing $200,000 each). The 350 kW stations run so hot the charging cable has to be liquid cooled (and if anything goes wrong, it *will* explode). To equal the fuel time for a gasoline car for a 400 mile trip - to simply transfer the amount of energy necessary to go that far - would require a 3 *megawatt* charging station. That 16 pump station would also need a 30 megawatt power line coming in. That's _every_ _gas_ _station_ _in_ _the_ _country_. There are 168,000 places in the US that sell gasoline. If we assume they have an average of 8 pumps each (which is a reasonable average), that's a quarter of a *trillion* dollars just for the charging stations. And note that this is all *in* *addition* *to* existing generating (and distributing) infrastructure (since most of the charging will be at peak hours). It would take generations to build the grid to distribut that much power. The only feasible way would be for each gas station to have it's own mini-nuke plant. And according to the commonly accepted formula for comparison of energy costs, for my 40 mpg Toyota to be replaced with a Tesla, that uses 3 kWH/mile (which seems to be about as good as it gets for passenger cars), electricity would have to cost 6 cents a kWH to be the same price just for the energy (never mind having to pay for the equivalent of a new engine every ten years). Currently, the cheapest, off-hour price around here is 16. So enjoy smoking your Kool-Aid, son. Your fantasies aren't going to happen. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. "And according to the commonly accepted formula for comparison of energy costs, for my 40 mpg Toyota to be replaced with a Tesla, that uses 3 kWH/mile (which seems to be about as good as it gets for passenger cars)," That sounds positively WRONG! My own electric Volt goes 4.5 miles average for 1 Kwhr of energy expenditure. My power costs for overnight charging from the nearby Nuke is 7 cents/Kwhr, and some nights the cost actually dips below zero and they end up crediting up to 2 cents/Kwhr (they need the load at night and will pay you to use it). During the day I can charge here at the factory for 4 cents/Kwhr since we buy in bulk from the Nuke and from local wind turbines. In effect, it costs me at most 62 cents for 8.9 Kwhrs to go 40 miles, gas costs would be $2.50 for the same distance. My Volt has 48,000 miles on it, almost all on electric power, very little on gas. Battery range has not changed at all since the original purchase. Razzy |
#138
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
Chris L Peterson wrote in
news On Mon, 23 Oct 2017 10:09:26 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: Yes, really. http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crud...-history-chart No, not really. The data is right there. Ignoring it doesn't change anything. The same is true of charge times and the laws of physics, pookie. Get help. Seriously. Before you hurt yourself. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#139
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
Razzmatazz wrote in
: My Volt has 48,000 miles on it, almost all on electric power, very little on gas. Your Volt is not an electric car, it is a hybrid, and thus, banned under the proposed ban of gasoline powered cars. Ergo, irrelevant. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#140
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Monday, October 23, 2017 at 12:27:13 PM UTC-5, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote:
Chris L Peterson wrote in news On Mon, 23 Oct 2017 10:09:26 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: Yes, really. http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crud...-history-chart No, not really. The data is right there. Ignoring it doesn't change anything. The same is true of charge times and the laws of physics, pookie. Get help. Seriously. Before you hurt yourself. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. methinks that your 3 Kwhr/mile is exactly backwards. All the new electric vehicles get more than 3 miles per KWhr (yes, even Teslas!). So you're off by a factor of 6 or more. ;^)) Razzy |
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