Odds on the first person being English who walks on Mars

http://groups.google.com.au/group/sc...fb 035b7538c1
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Oct 2003 ------
I would guess that the first person to walk on Mars would probably be
Chinese in about 2020.

My odds would be


Nationality of first person on Mars :-


Chinese 28%
Russian 22%
European probably German 18%
USA 15%
Indian 8%
Other 9%


And the year :-


Before 2010 1%
2010 to 2015 10%
2015 to 2020 20%
2020 to 2025 25%
2025 or later 35%
Never 9%


I guess it is pretty pesimistic to give such odds on us never going
there but it is possible that if we do not go soon the human race will
never have the resources and ability to go.

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This old thread discussed the odds on the nationality of the first
person to walk on Mars .

Following on from this thread much has happened in the world.

Bush has had a new space policy.
X-Prize
Richard Branson has entered the scene.
North Korea always an outsided , but with lots to prove.

My current bet is on a mission financed by Branson and possibly others
with himself , Burt Rutan and Steve Fosset involved , possibly even as
the astronauts.
construction would probably take place in Russia due to low costs and
expertise.

English 29%
USA 25%
Russian 22%
Chinese 12%
North Korea 5%
Other European probably German 4%
Indian 2%
Other 1%