What happened to SpaceShipOne?

Hi

It's been a LONG time since I last heard of Scaled Composites and
their X-prize attempt. At some stage the guys seemed to fly at least
once a month. Now, after the landing incident (which would only take
three weeks to fix) which happened a while ago, I still don't hear
ANYTHING.

Does this mean the next attempt will be an attempt to go all the way?
Are they just waiting for the FAA license and then do it or what is
happening?

(CA Zuke) wrote in message . com...
Hi

It's been a LONG time since I last heard of Scaled Composites and
their X-prize attempt. At some stage the guys seemed to fly at least
once a month. Now, after the landing incident (which would only take
three weeks to fix) which happened a while ago, I still don't hear
ANYTHING.

Does this mean the next attempt will be an attempt to go all the way?
Are they just waiting for the FAA license and then do it or what is
happening?

ok here is the latest update:

Flight 49L / 12G
Date: 11 MAR 04 Flight Time: 1.3 hours / 18 mins 30 secs
White Knight Pilot: Binnie White Knight Copilot: Stinemetze
White Knight Flt Engineer:
SpaceShipOne Pilot: Siebold
High Chase-Starship Pilot: Karkow
Low Chase-Extra Pilot: Melvill / Coleman

Objectives:
The twelfth flight of SpaceShipOne. Objectives included: pilot
proficiency, reaction control system functionality check and stability
and control and performance of the vehicle with the airframe thermal
protection system installed. This was an unpowered glide test.
Results:

Launch conditions were 48,500 feet and 125 knots. All systems
performed as expected and the vehicle landed successfully while
demonstrating the maximum cross wind landing capability.

i think this means they have fixed the landing problem, and will
probably continue to push the alt. limit begning with the next
flight/flights.

Here are the new pictures:

http://www.scaled.com/projects/tiero...S1WTPS_800.jpg

http://www.scaled.com/projects/tiero...1WTPS2_800.jpg

http://www.scaled.com/projects/tierone/index.htm
----------

(CA Zuke) writes:

Hi

It's been a LONG time since I last heard of Scaled Composites and
their X-prize attempt. At some stage the guys seemed to fly at least
once a month. Now, after the landing incident (which would only take
three weeks to fix) which happened a while ago, I still don't hear
ANYTHING.

A: It's been less than three months since SpaceShip One busted mach,
then busted the landing gear. In the realm of flight test engineering,
this is *not* a long time. Once a month is a good average rate, but
only an average - sometimes it takes longer to digest the results of
the last test and prepare for the next. Plenty of three-month gaps
in, e.g., the annals of the X-15 program.

B: If you don't hear anything, do keep in mind that nobody else is
obligated to *say* anything. This is a private company trying to
make a profit, and quite often the best way to do that is to keep
some things close to the vest.


Does this mean the next attempt will be an attempt to go all the way?
Are they just waiting for the FAA license and then do it or what is
happening?

It is unlikely that they would seek to go directly from barely supersonic
to a full 100-km suborbital trajectory without several incremental flight
tests in between. It is also unlikely that they would put all flight
testing on hold pending an FAA license when, at very least, they could
try to repeat the last test with a better landing.

There will almost certainly be more tests, and an FAA launch license, and
more tests still, and an X-prize attempt, in that order. What the planned
schedule is, is one of those things Rutan and company are keeping close to
the vest.


--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *

I wonder too. Here is a list of the possiblities that have occured to
me:

1) The ship was more badly damaged than they said. (Maybe, but what
would they lose by admitting if? They are still in the lead anyway
you look at it)
2) They are giving the other teams time to catch up to make it more
interesting(fat chance).
3) They are having trouble getting the license (but I thought it just
got a lot easier).
4) They are distracted by the Global Flyer project (obviously somewhat
true, but didn't Burt do that already 10 years ago? - What is the
hurry there?)
5) They don't want to compete in the news with Spirit and Opportunity
(but what if they really do live 200+ days?)

I would like to hear other speculations, as none of my ideas are very
convincing. I though they wanted to fly the thing once a week for a
period of months after winning. What are they waiting for?



(CA Zuke) wrote in message . com...
Hi

It's been a LONG time since I last heard of Scaled Composites and
their X-prize attempt. At some stage the guys seemed to fly at least
once a month. Now, after the landing incident (which would only take
three weeks to fix) which happened a while ago, I still don't hear
ANYTHING.

Does this mean the next attempt will be an attempt to go all the way?
Are they just waiting for the FAA license and then do it or what is
happening?

In article ,
MikeWise wrote:
5) They don't want to compete in the news with Spirit and Opportunity
(but what if they really do live 200+ days?)

6) They are privately funded and feel no need to issue press releases
every time they fly.
--
MOST launched 30 June; science observations running | Henry Spencer
since Oct; first surprises seen; papers pending. |

(John Schilling) wrote:

A: It's been less than three months since SpaceShip One busted mach,
then busted the landing gear. In the realm of flight test engineering,
this is *not* a long time.

Keep in mind that most people live on internet time nowadays. If it
isn't generating a headline, it's forgotten.

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.

(MikeWise) wrote in message om...
I wonder too. Here is a list of the possiblities that have occured to
me:

1) The ship was more badly damaged than they said. (Maybe, but what
would they lose by admitting if? They are still in the lead anyway
you look at it)
2) They are giving the other teams time to catch up to make it more
interesting(fat chance).
3) They are having trouble getting the license (but I thought it just
got a lot easier).
4) They are distracted by the Global Flyer project (obviously somewhat
true, but didn't Burt do that already 10 years ago? - What is the
hurry there?)
5) They don't want to compete in the news with Spirit and Opportunity
(but what if they really do live 200+ days?)

I would like to hear other speculations, as none of my ideas are very
convincing. I though they wanted to fly the thing once a week for a
period of months after winning. What are they waiting for?

1) The ship was more badly damaged than they said. (Maybe, but what
would they lose by admitting if? They are still in the lead anyway
you look at it)

I think that is correct. If it wasent for space.com we would probably
never know that there was a landing problem other than maybe just a
little note in their result texts.

3) They are having trouble getting the license (but I thought it just
got a lot easier).

I do not think the regulatory is a big problem anymore, it seems thing
have developed fast on that front... and i adwise you to read this ;

Press Release

Space Coalition Urges Swift Passage
of Commercial Space Act of 2003 (HR 3245)

(note, this bill has passed! Click here for related news)

WASHINGTON, DC – October 14, 2003: A coalition of space policy
organizations and aerospace companies today urged the Congress to pass
the Commercial Space Act of 2003 (HR 3245) in an expeditious manner.
This bill, introduced in the House by a bipartisan group, will clarify
and streamline a muddled and uncertain regulatory regime faced by the
emerging American suborbital space flight industry.

"The suborbital launch industry offers tremendous promise," said Brian
Chase, Executive Director of the National Space Society. "The tourism
component alone could be worth billions of dollars per year, and has
the real potential to jump-start our stagnant aerospace sector. The
United States has the opportunity to be the leader in this exciting
market, but without steps like this legislation we may see it move to
other countries."

The bill, introduced by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Rep. Ralph Hall
(D-TX) and Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN), directs the Secretary of
Transportation to set up an enabling regulatory regime for commercial
human space flight, separate from that under which the FAA governs
commercial aviation.

Most important, the bill confirms the FAA's Office of Commercial Space
Transportation (AST) as the sole authority to license suborbital
launch vehicles, and provides clear guidance that its primary mission
is to aid this new industry with reasonable regulation that will help
develop suborbital vehicles and companies. This will end the confusion
within FAA about which bureau has jurisdiction over these vehicles.

"The most effective way to make suborbital flight safe is to allow
innovative ideas," said XCOR Aerospace CEO Jeff Greason. "By resolving
regulatory uncertainty, this bill creates an environment that will
attract investment to an industry that has the potential to produce
quality, high-paying jobs."

"This legislation protects the safety of the general public while
allowing entrepreneurs and adventure travelers to pursue their dream
of participating in human spaceflight," said James Muncy of PoliSpace,
a space policy consultant working for several suborbital
RLV-interested companies.

The coalition is made up of major space policy organizations,
aerospace companies and consultants. They are joined by Mr. Dennis
Tito, the first private citizen to pay his own way into space. Their
joint aim is to assist the suborbital industry in its development and
to assure American leadership in this important emerging industry.


--------

Keep in mind that Elon Musk has chaken up the regulatory regim with
his falcon rocket aswell and even though it has been expensive it has
developed faster than people thought it would.

In message
(Paul Spielmann) wrote:

(CA Zuke) wrote in message . com...

It's been a LONG time since I last heard of Scaled Composites and
their X-prize attempt. At some stage the guys seemed to fly at least
once a month. Now, after the landing incident (which would only take
three weeks to fix) which happened a while ago, I still don't hear
ANYTHING.

ok here is the latest update:

Flight 49L / 12G
Date: 11 MAR 04 Flight Time: 1.3 hours / 18 mins 30 secs

Objectives:
The twelfth flight of SpaceShipOne. Objectives included: pilot
proficiency, reaction control system functionality check and stability
and control and performance of the vehicle with the airframe thermal
protection system installed. This was an unpowered glide test.

i think this means they have fixed the landing problem, and will
probably continue to push the alt. limit begning with the next
flight/flights.

Here are the new pictures:

http://www.scaled.com/projects/tiero...S1WTPS_800.jpg

Interestingly the caption for that picture is "SpaceShipOne With the
rocket motot [sic] for the flight 13p." so next one looks to be the
second powered flight. I'd expect to see at least two pairs of quick
turn around powered flights before an actual prize attempt.

Anthony

--
| Weather prediction will never be accurate until we |
| kill all the butterflies |

I don't think these guys are trying to stay out of the news or give
anyone else a chance. There is some serious money invested in this and
the investor(s) will most certainly want some return at some stage. So
the sooner the whole world knows about you the better.

I don't have much technical knowlegde about the subject but maybe the
reason for not flying so often is one of the following:
-The ship may be susceptable to weather conditions that WONT allow it
to fly as often as they (or I) hope.
-Maybe they feel that the ship is not as reliable at this stage and
that is why they don't even do two flights on a single day. For all I
know they may be taking the whole thing apart to make sure that all
the parts ar fine before comencing a next flight.
-I thought of the distraction for the global flyer but that's just
becuase I'm 'jealous' and want to see spaceshipone flying. Surely they
have different teams of engineers working on these projects so I would
assume (and sure hope) that people continue to work on this fulltime
despite other successes that the company has.

It's a pity that a company that seems to lead this race by quite a
margin still guards their information so tightly. Surely nobody can
catch up with them if they knew more. Armadillo (who is surely second
in the race) don't use nearly the same technique to get up there so
what can they benefit.

I think they should invest more in PR. Give us more updates like the
guys at Armadillo do!

When in doubt, go over seas?

Also yes, never let the media know of your "failures" to many people
base alot of things
on that news and it can ruin a company.. So keep things close to home,
secret as much
as possible, and then have the GLORY of a successful flight, contracts
and book rights.

Mike


John Schilling wrote:

(CA Zuke) writes:

Hi

It's been a LONG time since I last heard of Scaled Composites and
their X-prize attempt. At some stage the guys seemed to fly at least
once a month. Now, after the landing incident (which would only take
three weeks to fix) which happened a while ago, I still don't hear
ANYTHING.

A: It's been less than three months since SpaceShip One busted mach,
then busted the landing gear. In the realm of flight test engineering,
this is *not* a long time. Once a month is a good average rate, but
only an average - sometimes it takes longer to digest the results of
the last test and prepare for the next. Plenty of three-month gaps
in, e.g., the annals of the X-15 program.

B: If you don't hear anything, do keep in mind that nobody else is
obligated to *say* anything. This is a private company trying to
make a profit, and quite often the best way to do that is to keep
some things close to the vest.

Does this mean the next attempt will be an attempt to go all the way?
Are they just waiting for the FAA license and then do it or what is
happening?

It is unlikely that they would seek to go directly from barely supersonic
to a full 100-km suborbital trajectory without several incremental flight
tests in between. It is also unlikely that they would put all flight
testing on hold pending an FAA license when, at very least, they could
try to repeat the last test with a better landing.

There will almost certainly be more tests, and an FAA launch license, and
more tests still, and an X-prize attempt, in that order. What the planned
schedule is, is one of those things Rutan and company are keeping close to
the vest.

--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *