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A quirk of celestial mechanics.
As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the channel , presumably. I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat. The high tides in ports of a large part of the English channel today are all the same time. I originally thought there was a problem with big-data http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ast?port=Dover http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...?port=Newhaven http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ort=Portsmouth And from the UK Hydrographic office, high tide times today Portsmouth,10:53, 23:24 Newhaven, 10:43 , 23:17 Dover, 10:44, 23:09 |
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On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
A quirk of celestial mechanics. As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the channel , presumably. I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat. The high tides in ports of a large part of the English channel today are all the same time. I originally thought there was a problem with big-data http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ast?port=Dover http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...?port=Newhaven http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ort=Portsmouth And from the UK Hydrographic office, high tide times today Portsmouth,10:53, 23:24 Newhaven, 10:43 , 23:17 Dover, 10:44, 23:09 Hydrographic Office EasyTide “predictions" for 31st March 1866… Portsmouth times LW=04.40 HW=1129 LW=1658 HW=2353 Dover times Lw=0640 HW=1126 LW=1854 HW=2342 so once in a blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon Now to find out any significance in 55458= 13x54x79 or in terms of 18.61 year or 8.85 year normal tide cycles |
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On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
A quirk of celestial mechanics. As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the channel , presumably. I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat. It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d 27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed. I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing. http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent...ipsecycles.htm Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaro...riodicity.html The high tides in ports of a large part of the English channel today are all the same time. I originally thought there was a problem with big-data http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ast?port=Dover http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...?port=Newhaven http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ort=Portsmouth And from the UK Hydrographic office, high tide times today Portsmouth,10:53,Â*Â*Â* 23:24 Newhaven, 10:43Â*Â*Â* ,Â*Â*Â* 23:17 Dover, 10:44,Â*Â*Â* 23:09 -- Regards, Martin Brown |
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On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote:
On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote: A quirk of celestial mechanics. As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the channel , presumably. I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat. It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d 27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed. I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing. http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent...ipsecycles.htm Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaro...riodicity.html The high tides in ports of a large part of the English channel today are all the same time. I originally thought there was a problem with big-data http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ast?port=Dover http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...?port=Newhaven http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...ort=Portsmouth And from the UK Hydrographic office, high tide times today Portsmouth,10:53, 23:24 Newhaven, 10:43 , 23:17 Dover, 10:44, 23:09 Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to avoid too much head-scratching. Next stop Milankovitch cycles |
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On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote:
On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote: On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote: A quirk of celestial mechanics. As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the channel , presumably. I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat. It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d 27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed. I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing. http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent...ipsecycles.htm Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaro...riodicity.html Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to avoid too much head-scratching. Â*Next stop Milankovitch cycles Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3 which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse Any interesting tides observed back then? The one later in the year promises to have better UK visibility but we still won't see totality well - moon will rise in eclipse for the UK: https://www.space.com/33786-lunar-eclipse-guide.html Some of these empirical eclipse rules have been known since Babylonian times! Predicting solar eclipses was a blood sport in the early days of colonising China when Ferdinand Verbiest nearly got killed before inflicting that fate on the indigenous lazy court "astronomers". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdin...onomy_contests Enjoy! Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. -- Regards, Martin Brown |
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On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote:
On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote: On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote: On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote: A quirk of celestial mechanics. As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the channel , presumably. I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat. It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d 27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed. I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing. http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent...ipsecycles.htm Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaro...riodicity.html Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to avoid too much head-scratching. Next stop Milankovitch cycles Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3 which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse Any interesting tides observed back then? The one later in the year promises to have better UK visibility but we still won't see totality well - moon will rise in eclipse for the UK: https://www.space.com/33786-lunar-eclipse-guide.html Some of these empirical eclipse rules have been known since Babylonian times! Predicting solar eclipses was a blood sport in the early days of colonising China when Ferdinand Verbiest nearly got killed before inflicting that fate on the indigenous lazy court "astronomers". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdin...onomy_contests Enjoy! Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. I doubt anything noticed 1942, any more than generally this week. Its only the heights that are generally noticed and they are perfectly normal spring tides this week and this year. As part of local marine flooding potential, I daily look at NTSLF surge plots for Pompey, Newlyn and Dover. Superimposed on the plots is the high tide times ,only, not low tides, graphically. So it was obvious to the resolution of the plots the times were the same, highly odd and seemingly in error, Newhaven showed the same times. Normally, springs and neaps, the tide pulse goes west to east about 6 hours Newlyn too Pompey and 6 hours Pompey to Dover, where it just about coincides with the tide pulse down the east coast. |
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On 01/02/2018 08:45, N_Cook wrote:
On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote: On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote: On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote: On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote: A quirk of celestial mechanics. As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the channel , presumably. I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat. It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d 27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed. I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing. http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent...ipsecycles.htm Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaro...riodicity.html Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to avoid too much head-scratching. Next stop Milankovitch cycles Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3 which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse Any interesting tides observed back then? The one later in the year promises to have better UK visibility but we still won't see totality well - moon will rise in eclipse for the UK: https://www.space.com/33786-lunar-eclipse-guide.html Some of these empirical eclipse rules have been known since Babylonian times! Predicting solar eclipses was a blood sport in the early days of colonising China when Ferdinand Verbiest nearly got killed before inflicting that fate on the indigenous lazy court "astronomers". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdin...onomy_contests Enjoy! Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. I doubt anything noticed 1942, any more than generally this week. Its only the heights that are generally noticed and they are perfectly normal spring tides this week and this year. As part of local marine flooding potential, I daily look at NTSLF surge plots for Pompey, Newlyn and Dover. Superimposed on the plots is the high tide times ,only, not low tides, graphically. So it was obvious to the resolution of the plots the times were the same, highly odd and seemingly in error, Newhaven showed the same times. Normally, springs and neaps, the tide pulse goes west to east about 6 hours Newlyn too Pompey and 6 hours Pompey to Dover, where it just about coincides with the tide pulse down the east coast. From one of the NOC experts on deep-sea oceanography "I would be very surprised if the tides have any significant effect on deep ocean mixing." "tides" in this context referring the recent anomolous tides as exemplified at Dover last week |
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On 04/02/2018 09:50, N_Cook wrote:
On 01/02/2018 08:45, N_Cook wrote: On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote: On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote: On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote: I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing. http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent...ipsecycles.htm Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaro...riodicity.html Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to avoid too much head-scratching. Â* Next stop Milankovitch cycles Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3 which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse Any interesting tides observed back then? [snip] From one of the NOC experts on deep-sea oceanography "I would be very surprised if the tides have any significant effect on deep ocean mixing." "tides" in this context referring the recent anomolous tides as exemplified at Dover last week I know it is out of fashion at the moment but I think the Keeling tides paper PNAS 1997 August, 94 (16) 8321-8328 was actually onto something (although some of the analysis is flawed and the MEM spectrum (fig 4) is over fitted causing peak splitting of the 18y Saros peak to 15y & 21y. They see a strong peak at 58y (2x Inex but fail to comment on it). http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321 My contention is that there is evidence in their analysis despite them having removed a fair amount of the longer periodicities for tidal forcing at 2xInex = 58 years. HADCRUT also shows periodic positive excursions around 2000, 1940 and 1880 separated by about the Inex period. You would also expect something at ~54 years which is a period for about the same eclipse at about the same longitude and especially when the eclipse is at or near perigee. My email address is valid so if you would be kind enough to your NOC expert to get in touch I would be interested to discuss with them why they would dismiss the possibility of tidal forcing out of hand. -- Regards, Martin Brown |
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On 31/01/18 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
A quirk of celestial mechanics. [...] The high tides [...]. Nothing directly to do with this [interesting] discussion, but the BBC's programme on the supermoon was trying to explain what was meant by full/new/quarter Moon, why some were "super", etc., the usual stuff. In the middle of which they told us that when the Moon was new, its pull reinforced that of the Sun, and we had higher tides than usual. Nothing said directly, but any normal listener would have inferred that when it was full, and its pull was opposed to that of the Sun, tides would be lower. I've heard physicists, who really should know better, say exactly that on TV. In trying to explain this to people, they can usually accept that we get "spring" tides when the Moon-tide and the Sun-tide are reinforcing each other, and "neap" tides when they oppose. The hard part is explaining why the Moon-tide bulges both towards and away from the Moon. You can explain till you're blue in the face that the Moon's gravity pull is stronger on the side of Earth facing the Moon and weaker on the side facing away, so the water piles up [a little!] on both sides, but somehow that gets confused with ellipses with the Earth at one focus, and/or with the phase of the Moon. I had one former colleague, a highly intelligent and competent pure mathematician, who came to me regularly to explain this. "We did this last year!" "Yes, but I've forgotten, and the children have asked again, and anyway [famous name] was on TV and his explanation was different. Surely we get lower high tides at full Moon?" "No, because [blah]." "No, you've lost me. Are you saying that [name] was wrong?" "Yes. Let's try again ...." -- Andy Walker, Nottingham. |
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On 05/02/2018 09:01, Martin Brown wrote:
On 04/02/2018 09:50, N_Cook wrote: On 01/02/2018 08:45, N_Cook wrote: On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote: On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote: On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote: I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing. http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent...ipsecycles.htm Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaro...riodicity.html Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to avoid too much head-scratching. Next stop Milankovitch cycles Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3 which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse Any interesting tides observed back then? [snip] From one of the NOC experts on deep-sea oceanography "I would be very surprised if the tides have any significant effect on deep ocean mixing." "tides" in this context referring the recent anomolous tides as exemplified at Dover last week I know it is out of fashion at the moment but I think the Keeling tides paper PNAS 1997 August, 94 (16) 8321-8328 was actually onto something (although some of the analysis is flawed and the MEM spectrum (fig 4) is over fitted causing peak splitting of the 18y Saros peak to 15y & 21y. They see a strong peak at 58y (2x Inex but fail to comment on it). http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321 My contention is that there is evidence in their analysis despite them having removed a fair amount of the longer periodicities for tidal forcing at 2xInex = 58 years. HADCRUT also shows periodic positive excursions around 2000, 1940 and 1880 separated by about the Inex period. You would also expect something at ~54 years which is a period for about the same eclipse at about the same longitude and especially when the eclipse is at or near perigee. My email address is valid so if you would be kind enough to your NOC expert to get in touch I would be interested to discuss with them why they would dismiss the possibility of tidal forcing out of hand. I'll tell him of your recent post and "newspam"@... em address, remove both " ? My interest is a bit more parochial. I wonder if the "sotonisation" of the pompey tides https://www.admiralty.co.uk/Admiralt...20stan ds.pdf and multiple high-waters for Soton also since the end of 2015, (correspondence with Southampton Hydrographic office confirming this phenomenom but no insight as to cause, from them) change in Lymington tide times, growth of a spit at Pagham Harbour are all connected. Perhaps connected to whatever tidal harmonic constituents are close to syncing together for 2 or more years , along with the super-blue-blood moon, and all these local effects might drop out again after 2 more years. Myself and 3 proper NOC oceanographers are intrigued about this local effect, so far tentatively "blamed" on dredging for aggregates in the English channel, but an astronomic cause is much more interesting. |
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