Taking bets: next to fly in space

So, which will happen first:

1) Next NASA Space Shuttle flight

2) Shenzhou 6

3) XPrize contender flies in space

??

"Explorer8939" wrote in message
m...
So, which will happen first:

1) Next NASA Space Shuttle flight

2) Shenzhou 6

3) XPrize contender flies in space


X-Prize.

Explorer8939 wrote:
So, which will happen first:

Hmm, next new country to put a man up?

Japan?

--
http://inquisitor.i.am/ | | Ian Stirling.
---------------------------+-------------------------+--------------------------
Two parrots sitting on a perch. One asks the other, "Can you smell fish?"

From (Explorer8939) :

2) Shenzhou 6

to be sure!

Yvan Bozzonetti.

Ian Stirling wrote:
Hmm, next new country to put a man up?
Japan?

In terms of technical readyness and capability,
both Japan and ESA are in good position to move
forwards into manned spaceflight. Neither has
an active short term program but both have been
doing R&D projects in the field forever and have
ISS components. With ATV, one might suppose ESA
has the 'service module' stuff almost ready to go,
if you went with a semi-expendable or two part
fully expendable system.

The discussion earlier about India and Pakistan being
interested now... they're both a ways away.
That doesn't mean that they couldn't catch up fast.
The slow pace of China's program has actually been
somewhat confusing, unless they're doing it with a lot
less resources than they seemed to have.


-george william herbert

"Explorer8939" wrote in message
m...
So, which will happen first:

1) Next NASA Space Shuttle flight

2) Shenzhou 6

3) XPrize contender flies in space

If you're talking anyone flying above circa 80 km (which is most everyone's
definition of the beginning of "space"), then it's probably the X-Prize
contender. I think Burt Rutan's White Knight/SpaceShipOne will do it first.
:-)

--
Raymond Chuang
Sacramento, CA USA

In article , Explorer8939 wrote:
So, which will happen first:

1) Next NASA Space Shuttle flight

This one we can place reasonably confidently at September-November
(allowing for a little slip) 2004. So, is anything flying before that?

2) Shenzhou 6

Hard to say.

S1 November 1999
S2 January 2001 (14 mo since last)
S3 March 2002 (14 mo)
S4 Dec 2002 (9 mo)
S5 Oct 2003 (8 mo)

Based on this, you'd expect the next launch to be in around eight
months, or circa June 2004. We don't really know much about their launch
vehicle or capsule production rates; they could probably launch one
before the end of the year if they had the equipment in stock and wanted
to go for it, so, really, it's guesswork...

My personal suspicion is that they'll ramp up the launch rate, but not
significantly. CZ-2s hav flown only a couple of months apart before, so
there shouldn't be too significant a problem with flow, but what do I
know :-)

3) XPrize contender flies in space

Decent chance this'll happen before that point - as my understanding
goes, there's two or three groups with a decent chance of flying
sometime next year, and an outside chance of it happening this year
(although there's less chance that that one'll fulfil X-Prize
regulations, but YKWIM)

My prediction - X-Prize first half 04, Shenzou mid 04, Shuttle second
half 04. All will have flown by 1 Jan 05... call it an 80% chance.

--
-Andrew Gray

Next nation to put a man in space, I would guess France, on an Ariane. The food
will be good, the capcom will be rude;-)

In article ,
Joann Evans wrote:
100km seems to be the legal definition, and is definitely the one the
X-Prize organization is using.

Everybody *except* the US government agrees that 100km is the boundary.

(The US government insists that there is no single boundary, especially
not one that was originally suggested by the Commies and which no decent
right-thinking American would agree to...)
--
MOST launched 1015 EDT 30 June, separated 1046, | Henry Spencer
first ground-station pass 1651, all nominal! |

Henry Spencer wrote:
In article ,
Joann Evans wrote:

100km seems to be the legal definition, and is definitely the one the
X-Prize organization is using.


Everybody *except* the US government agrees that 100km is the boundary.

(The US government insists that there is no single boundary, especially
not one that was originally suggested by the Commies and which no decent
right-thinking American would agree to...)

I beleive that the DoD probably still uses 50 miles. Good clean
American miles.

Brett