Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

I've been looking at some the incredibly expensive
steps which are planned for a Mars colony.

From the massive rockets, massive transports
and things like droves of robots that will
dig out an underground habitat and so on
and so on and so on...

Sounds like Trillions of dollars will be
needed over several decades.

Of course we all know that as time goes on
and cost estimates steadily rise, the
goals will shrink and shrink, until
in the end we land a couple of astronauts
for a couple of weeks.

But even if a self sustaining colony of
say a 100 people is established, what
will the human race get in return for
all this money and effort?



Finding life on Mars?


NASA has made it clear that's not a primary
concern. The current MSL couldn't identify
life is it was sitting in a field of moss.

And the next rover won't be able to either, instead
looking for signs of...ancient life, and identify
samples for some....future sample return mission
and to support some...future human habitation.

THE MSL 202O CAN DO EVERYTHING.....EXCEPT
DIRECTLY SEARCH FOR LIFE.

http://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/news/w...ws&NewsID=1678


It's yet another rover that's meant to get
a...sample return mission and colony instead
of directly searching for life.

That's just another self-serving deception
on the part of NASA, at the expense of
science and what the public wants.

For the incredible cost of a manned
landing, we could send a hundred much
more ambitious rovers far faster and
cover far more ground than a manned
landing.



Allow the human race to survive an impact?


It's far cheaper and easier to spot, divert
or destroy an asteroid than this colony.


Inspiration?


For what? Colonies around Jupiter?
Again, for the same end, just more
inspiration?


For resources?


What doesn't the Earth have that
the moon or asteroids have?


For national pride?


Spending that money directly improving America
would do far more in that respect.




If an agency is going to spend Trillions of
precious research money on a single project
it needs to be thoroughly justified so as
to be easily convincing.

So far I only see 'planting the flag' as
the only widespread appeal, and that's
not enough.

Jonathan wrote:


I've been looking at some the incredibly expensive
steps which are planned for a Mars colony.

From the massive rockets, massive transports
and things like droves of robots that will
dig out an underground habitat and so on
and so on and so on...

Sounds like Trillions of dollars will be
needed over several decades.


Jonathan, this is a 'sci' hierarch newsgroup. That means handwavium
and distortions don't work here. Are you now going to go into another
snit and stalk out of the newsgroup again in high dudgeon?


Of course we all know that as time goes on
and cost estimates steadily rise, the
goals will shrink and shrink, until
in the end we land a couple of astronauts
for a couple of weeks.


We all don't know any such thing. Idiocy like the preceding is why we
don't let you make decisions.


But even if a self sustaining colony of
say a 100 people is established, what
will the human race get in return for
all this money and effort?


Way too few people for a self-sustaining colony.


Finding life on Mars?


NASA has made it clear that's not a primary
concern. The current MSL couldn't identify
life is it was sitting in a field of moss.

And the next rover won't be able to either, instead
looking for signs of...ancient life, and identify
samples for some....future sample return mission
and to support some...future human habitation.

THE MSL 202O CAN DO EVERYTHING.....EXCEPT
DIRECTLY SEARCH FOR LIFE.

http://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/news/w...ws&NewsID=1678


It's yet another rover that's meant to get
a...sample return mission and colony instead
of directly searching for life.


If people aren't going, why do we care? What do we get if we do (or
don't) find life on Mars?


That's just another self-serving deception
on the part of NASA, at the expense of
science and what the public wants.

For the incredible cost of a manned
landing, we could send a hundred much
more ambitious rovers far faster and
cover far more ground than a manned
landing.


Well, no, you couldn't.


Allow the human race to survive an impact?

It's far cheaper and easier to spot, divert
or destroy an asteroid than this colony.


Oh? How's that.


Inspiration?

For what? Colonies around Jupiter?
Again, for the same end, just more
inspiration?


For people to actually get excited about STEM subjects so that they
learn to actually think. Of course, you don't want this because it
would reduce your 'audience'.


For resources?

What doesn't the Earth have that
the moon or asteroids have?


A silly reason to go unless you're going to use those resources in
space.


For national pride?

Spending that money directly improving America
would do far more in that respect.


Nope, it wouldn't.


If an agency is going to spend Trillions of
precious research money on a single project
it needs to be thoroughly justified so as
to be easily convincing.

So far I only see 'planting the flag' as
the only widespread appeal, and that's
not enough.


Your intellectual myopia is your problem, not ours. You seem to have
made an argument against sending toasters to space, too, even though
that's what you seem to favor.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

On 12/11/2016 10:46 AM, Fred J. McCall wrote:
Jonathan wrote:


I've been looking at some the incredibly expensive
steps which are planned for a Mars colony.

From the massive rockets, massive transports
and things like droves of robots that will
dig out an underground habitat and so on
and so on and so on...

Sounds like Trillions of dollars will be
needed over several decades.


Jonathan, this is a



snipped~

On 12/11/2016 10:46 AM, Fred J. McCall wrote:
Jonathan wrote:


I've been looking at some the incredibly expensive
steps which are planned for a Mars colony.

From the massive rockets, massive transports
and things like droves of robots that will
dig out an underground habitat and so on
and so on and so on...

Sounds like Trillions of dollars will be
needed over several decades.


Jonathan, this is a 'sci' hierarch newsgroup. That means handwavium
and distortions don't work here. Are you now going to go into another
snit and stalk out of the newsgroup again in high dudgeon?


Of course we all know that as time goes on
and cost estimates steadily rise, the
goals will shrink and shrink, until
in the end we land a couple of astronauts
for a couple of weeks.


We all don't know any such thing. Idiocy like the preceding is why we
don't let you make decisions.




On second thought, {sarcasm alert} cost overruns and
lowball estimates of govt contracts are sooo rare.


"...the final cost of the Space Shuttle program, averaged
over all missions and adjusted for inflation, was estimated
to come out to $1.5 billion per launch, or $60,000/kg
(approximately $27,000 per pound) to LEO.[5] This should
be contrasted with the originally envisioned costs of $118
per pound of payload in 1972 dollars (approximately
$657 per pound adjusting for inflation to 2013)."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critic...huttle_program

$27,000 vs $657? That would make even Lockheed blush.


And how much does the SLS program cost? Oh that's right
NASA learned a lesson, don't tell anyone how much.


"The fact that, in spite of my best efforts, the estimates
used in this reassessment of the SLS may or may not be
accurate or fair is countered by the reality that
getting hard flight cost, hardware construction cost,
and annual operational cost numbers out of NASA
officialdom is impossible."

In no way should criticism of a NASA program decision
should be interpreted as criticism of NASA employees,
especially as this program is, to a large degree, being
forced on NASA by the Congress."
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2330/1


Fred even a child could see this is a republican
open ended gift to Boeing. Not a program to
colonize Mars, but a program to get Congressmen
nice cushy jobs after they leave Congress.

You're a menace to the truth Fred.




But even if a self sustaining colony of
say a 100 people is established, what
will the human race get in return for
all this money and effort?


Way too few people for a self-sustaining colony.


Finding life on Mars?


NASA has made it clear that's not a primary
concern. The current MSL couldn't identify
life is it was sitting in a field of moss.

And the next rover won't be able to either, instead
looking for signs of...ancient life, and identify
samples for some....future sample return mission
and to support some...future human habitation.

THE MSL 202O CAN DO EVERYTHING.....EXCEPT
DIRECTLY SEARCH FOR LIFE.

http://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/news/w...ws&NewsID=1678


It's yet another rover that's meant to get
a...sample return mission and colony instead
of directly searching for life.





If people aren't going, why do we care? What do we get if we do (or
don't) find life on Mars?




You forget to put {sarcasm alert} in the above sentence Fred.

The question of life elsewhere, of creation, is
the single greatest philosophical question
of all time.

To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

—to low Earth orbit.

Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.

The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.

Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26 metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210 passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.

Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.

Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.

Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.

People of very high wealth who have money making plans off world may hire agents to represent their interests and establish a homestead off world and later come visit. People who have political difficulties with terrestrial governments will seek a place to live free of those difficulties off world. Governments worried about people off world posing a threat and interfering with terrestrial affairs will send agents and officers off world on various missions that make sense to them. Scientists who seek to understand the new environment and develop that understanding - will have governments and business support their activities. People born off world may seek to return to their parents home world. Others born off world will seek their fortunes where they are. Some will seek their fortunes further afield. Some like America's early lunar explorers will have philisophical insights. Those insights will inform and enlighten others, and new philosophies and religions will arise in the frontier and extend back to terrestrial populations.

My friend Edgar Mitchell's Samadhi Experience on his return from the moon -
https://vimeo.com/15037621

The Noetic Institute was created by Edgar following his flight. Other Apollo astronauts became ministers and artists to communicate their experience. Others became politicians and served on boards of corporations. We can expect a flood of returning adventurers to do even more than the handful of Apollo explorers in the coming years. This will expand and enliven the centre by expanding the mythos of the centre.

Breaking free of the authorities that presume to control us, that is a great transformation of culture, which enlivens and extends the culture in many ways - freeing the centre of that control - and the common mode risks there.

Joseph Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGx4IlppSgU

The frontier will provide resources to the centre - the terrestrials remaining behind. The world for example today consumes 83 tons per year of precious metals far more valued than gold. These metals are more abundant off world than on Earth. So, these metals will form the basis of trade. Less valued metals, but still considered precious occur in larger quantities off world than on Earth. Platinum - 530 tons per year worth a substantial amount - used in fuel cells for example. Gold - 2500 tons per year of gold is produced on Earth used for a variety of purposes. This could easily be doubled using off world resources. Copper 18,400 tons per year. Silver 26,000 tons per year. Uranium 58,000 tons per year. Uranium would very likely be processed into usable forms before being sent to Earth - say suitcase sized devices that produce 750 MW - and when hooked up to sea water and switched on - produce

3.43 kg/sec - hydrogen
12,376.5 kg/hour - hydrogen
111,389.2 litres/hour - water reduced to hydrogen and oxygen
11,138,928.1 litres/hour - sea water to fresh water
389,862.4 kg/hour salt

This is enough to supply fresh water and power in the form of hydrogen fuel, for 668,000 persons. 1.5 million of these devices would supply a population of 10 billion people with the essential of life.

We can also dispose of radioactive wastes off world - on the moon for example - where it can be re-processed.

The escape velocity of Mars is 5.3 km/sec. The excess velocity required to reach Earth is 3.0 km/sec for about 3 months every 2.15 years. This requires an object attain 6.1 km/sec when launched from the surface of Mars. Containers with these metals can be shot out of magnetic launchers, rail guns, hyper velocity cannons, on Mars' surface and they will arrive back at Earth in 3 to 4 months. There they will enter the Earth's atmosphere, and parachute down to a landing. So, returning significant quantities of material from Martian mines is possible.

A 750 MW generator can project 40.3 tons per hour from Mars at 6.1 km/sec using a form of rail gun. Doing this for three months obtains 88,317 tons. Doing this once every 2.15 years obtains 41,077 tons per year - per launcher.

Firing from Ceres at a speed of 4.5 km/sec - for three months out of every 15 months - achieves the same sort of results. It takes about 15 months for materials to reach Earth. Over 583,800 tons of metals and other materials may be projected from Ceres each synodic period from a 750 MW rail gun type launcher.

The world produces 1.6 billion tons of steel each year. Each ton requires 14 gigajoules of energy. To transport this to Earth requires 10.1 gigajoules per ton from Ceres and 16.3 giga joules per ton from Mars' surface.

A 750 MW generator that processes iron into steel and projects it from Ceres transports 244,751 tons per three month interval. We can increase this to the higher rate by making iron in advance and projecting it out - during the synodic launch window. Then, in other periods, making steel and other materials for local production.

To replace all primary steel production world wide with off world sources requires 6,558 mine sites on Ceres, each operating a 750 MW power plant and a rail gun.

Actually Mars covered as it is with iron oxide, is an ideal source of iron, despite the higher energies involved. 8,163 mine sites using a 750 MW power plant and rail gun capable of firing a 6.1 km/sec projectile off world - accurately - and have it guided to Earth - where it brakes in the Earth's atmosphere and descends directly to a customer's site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnnSiK5mayY

So, you have a large bus that is launched off Mars or Ceres, loaded with smaller cargos, that enter the upper atmosphere and descend directly to their buyers.

On Monday, December 12, 2016 at 12:33:22 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

—to low Earth orbit.

Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.

The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.

Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26 metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210 passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.

Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.

Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.

Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.

People of very high wealth who have money making plans off world may hire agents to represent their interests and establish a homestead off world and later come visit. People who have political difficulties with terrestrial governments will seek a place to live free of those difficulties off world. Governments worried about people off world posing a threat and interfering with terrestrial affairs will send agents and officers off world on various missions that make sense to them. Scientists who seek to understand the new environment and develop that understanding - will have governments and business support their activities. People born off world may seek to return to their parents home world. Others born off world will seek their fortunes where they are. Some will seek their fortunes further afield. Some like America's early lunar explorers will have philisophical insights. Those insights will inform and enlighten others, and new philosophies and religions will arise in the frontier and extend back to terrestrial populations.

My friend Edgar Mitchell's Samadhi Experience on his return from the moon -
https://vimeo.com/15037621

The Noetic Institute was created by Edgar following his flight. Other Apollo astronauts became ministers and artists to communicate their experience. Others became politicians and served on boards of corporations. We can expect a flood of returning adventurers to do even more than the handful of Apollo explorers in the coming years. This will expand and enliven the centre by expanding the mythos of the centre.

Breaking free of the authorities that presume to control us, that is a great transformation of culture, which enlivens and extends the culture in many ways - freeing the centre of that control - and the common mode risks there.

Joseph Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGx4IlppSgU

The frontier will provide resources to the centre - the terrestrials remaining behind. The world for example today consumes 83 tons per year of precious metals far more valued than gold. These metals are more abundant off world than on Earth. So, these metals will form the basis of trade. Less valued metals, but still considered precious occur in larger quantities off world than on Earth. Platinum - 530 tons per year worth a substantial amount - used in fuel cells for example. Gold - 2500 tons per year of gold is produced on Earth used for a variety of purposes. This could easily be doubled using off world resources. Copper 18,400 tons per year. Silver 26,000 tons per year. Uranium 58,000 tons per year. Uranium would very likely be processed into usable forms before being sent to Earth - say suitcase sized devices that produce 750 MW - and when hooked up to sea water and switched on - produce

3.43 kg/sec - hydrogen
12,376.5 kg/hour - hydrogen
111,389.2 litres/hour - water reduced to hydrogen and oxygen
11,138,928.1 litres/hour - sea water to fresh water
389,862.4 kg/hour salt

This is enough to supply fresh water and power in the form of hydrogen fuel, for 668,000 persons. 1.5 million of these devices would supply a population of 10 billion people with the essential of life.

We can also dispose of radioactive wastes off world - on the moon for example - where it can be re-processed.

The escape velocity of Mars is 5.3 km/sec. The excess velocity required to reach Earth is 3.0 km/sec for about 3 months every 2.15 years. This requires an object attain 6.1 km/sec when launched from the surface of Mars. Containers with these metals can be shot out of magnetic launchers, rail guns, hyper velocity cannons, on Mars' surface and they will arrive back at Earth in 3 to 4 months. There they will enter the Earth's atmosphere, and parachute down to a landing. So, returning significant quantities of material from Martian mines is possible.

A 750 MW generator can project 40.3 tons per hour from Mars at 6.1 km/sec using a form of rail gun. Doing this for three months obtains 88,317 tons.. Doing this once every 2.15 years obtains 41,077 tons per year - per launcher.

Firing from Ceres at a speed of 4.5 km/sec - for three months out of every 15 months - achieves the same sort of results. It takes about 15 months for materials to reach Earth. Over 583,800 tons of metals and other materials may be projected from Ceres each synodic period from a 750 MW rail gun type launcher.

The world produces 1.6 billion tons of steel each year. Each ton requires 14 gigajoules of energy. To transport this to Earth requires 10.1 gigajoules per ton from Ceres and 16.3 giga joules per ton from Mars' surface.

A 750 MW generator that processes iron into steel and projects it from Ceres transports 244,751 tons per three month interval. We can increase this to the higher rate by making iron in advance and projecting it out - during the synodic launch window. Then, in other periods, making steel and other materials for local production.

To replace all primary steel production world wide with off world sources requires 6,558 mine sites on Ceres, each operating a 750 MW power plant and a rail gun.

Actually Mars covered as it is with iron oxide, is an ideal source of iron, despite the higher energies involved. 8,163 mine sites using a 750 MW power plant and rail gun capable of firing a 6.1 km/sec projectile off world - accurately - and have it guided to Earth - where it brakes in the Earth's atmosphere and descends directly to a customer's site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnnSiK5mayY

So, you have a large bus that is launched off Mars or Ceres, loaded with smaller cargos, that enter the upper atmosphere and descend directly to their buyers.

Manufactured goods, drugs, clothing, fabric, foods, etc., are also imported by interplanetary drone from off-world to Earth in the same way raw materials are imported described above. Of course, radio and laser traffic communicates data and software easily enough. So, literature, art, software, banking, finance, services can be done off-world. To support this accountants attorneys and executive representatives will operate in world the way foreign representatives used to operate in-country when sea travel took months. There will be regular traffic of these types of individuals. Telepresence will be possible on Earth, difficult off-world, so talented folks will be in demand in the frontiers and be greatly acclaimed. That acclaim in the frontier will reflexively add to the fame of the person when they return to Earth. For example, Mark Twain visited far flung regions of the globe, and was greatly beloved by those he met during his lecture tours, and when he returned to America, he was famous for having gone to those remote locations. The same will happen for artists, writers, philosophers, engineers, architects, medical folk, and so forth - that are exceptionally talented on Earth - and in great demand off-world.

Mark Twain - Following the Equator
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AL_Cbg5C9E

With 188,760 people per year - with a growth in capacity of 20% per year - and with population growth rate of 2% per year - with a 1/2% return per year - gives the following off-world populations;

Year Per Year-- Total

2020 188,760 188,760
2021 226,512 418,103
2022 271,814 696,188
2023 326,176 1,032,806
2024 391,411 1,439,709
2025 469,693 1,930,997
2026 563,631 2,523,592
2027 676,357 3,237,802
2028 811,628 4,097,997
2029 973,953 5,133,419

2030 1,168,743 6,379,163
2031 1,402,491 7,877,341
2032 1,682,989 9,678,490
2033 2,019,586 11,843,253
2034 2,423,503 14,444,404
2035 2,908,203 17,569,273
2036 3,489,843 21,322,655
2037 4,187,811 25,830,305
2038 5,025,373 31,243,132
2039 6,030,447 37,742,225

2040 7,236,536 45,544,894

On Monday, December 12, 2016 at 2:56:56 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
On Monday, December 12, 2016 at 12:33:22 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

—to low Earth orbit.

Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.

The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.

Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26 metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210 passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.

Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.

Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.

Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less.. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.

People of very high wealth who have money making plans off world may hire agents to represent their interests and establish a homestead off world and later come visit. People who have political difficulties with terrestrial governments will seek a place to live free of those difficulties off world. Governments worried about people off world posing a threat and interfering with terrestrial affairs will send agents and officers off world on various missions that make sense to them. Scientists who seek to understand the new environment and develop that understanding - will have governments and business support their activities. People born off world may seek to return to their parents home world. Others born off world will seek their fortunes where they are. Some will seek their fortunes further afield. Some like America's early lunar explorers will have philisophical insights. Those insights will inform and enlighten others, and new philosophies and religions will arise in the frontier and extend back to terrestrial populations.

My friend Edgar Mitchell's Samadhi Experience on his return from the moon -
https://vimeo.com/15037621

The Noetic Institute was created by Edgar following his flight. Other Apollo astronauts became ministers and artists to communicate their experience. Others became politicians and served on boards of corporations. We can expect a flood of returning adventurers to do even more than the handful of Apollo explorers in the coming years. This will expand and enliven the centre by expanding the mythos of the centre.

Breaking free of the authorities that presume to control us, that is a great transformation of culture, which enlivens and extends the culture in many ways - freeing the centre of that control - and the common mode risks there.

Joseph Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGx4IlppSgU

The frontier will provide resources to the centre - the terrestrials remaining behind. The world for example today consumes 83 tons per year of precious metals far more valued than gold. These metals are more abundant off world than on Earth. So, these metals will form the basis of trade. Less valued metals, but still considered precious occur in larger quantities off world than on Earth. Platinum - 530 tons per year worth a substantial amount - used in fuel cells for example. Gold - 2500 tons per year of gold is produced on Earth used for a variety of purposes. This could easily be doubled using off world resources. Copper 18,400 tons per year. Silver 26,000 tons per year. Uranium 58,000 tons per year. Uranium would very likely be processed into usable forms before being sent to Earth - say suitcase sized devices that produce 750 MW - and when hooked up to sea water and switched on - produce

3.43 kg/sec - hydrogen
12,376.5 kg/hour - hydrogen
111,389.2 litres/hour - water reduced to hydrogen and oxygen
11,138,928.1 litres/hour - sea water to fresh water
389,862.4 kg/hour salt

This is enough to supply fresh water and power in the form of hydrogen fuel, for 668,000 persons. 1.5 million of these devices would supply a population of 10 billion people with the essential of life.

We can also dispose of radioactive wastes off world - on the moon for example - where it can be re-processed.

The escape velocity of Mars is 5.3 km/sec. The excess velocity required to reach Earth is 3.0 km/sec for about 3 months every 2.15 years. This requires an object attain 6.1 km/sec when launched from the surface of Mars. Containers with these metals can be shot out of magnetic launchers, rail guns, hyper velocity cannons, on Mars' surface and they will arrive back at Earth in 3 to 4 months. There they will enter the Earth's atmosphere, and parachute down to a landing. So, returning significant quantities of material from Martian mines is possible.

A 750 MW generator can project 40.3 tons per hour from Mars at 6.1 km/sec using a form of rail gun. Doing this for three months obtains 88,317 tons. Doing this once every 2.15 years obtains 41,077 tons per year - per launcher.

Firing from Ceres at a speed of 4.5 km/sec - for three months out of every 15 months - achieves the same sort of results. It takes about 15 months for materials to reach Earth. Over 583,800 tons of metals and other materials may be projected from Ceres each synodic period from a 750 MW rail gun type launcher.

The world produces 1.6 billion tons of steel each year. Each ton requires 14 gigajoules of energy. To transport this to Earth requires 10.1 gigajoules per ton from Ceres and 16.3 giga joules per ton from Mars' surface.

A 750 MW generator that processes iron into steel and projects it from Ceres transports 244,751 tons per three month interval. We can increase this to the higher rate by making iron in advance and projecting it out - during the synodic launch window. Then, in other periods, making steel and other materials for local production.

To replace all primary steel production world wide with off world sources requires 6,558 mine sites on Ceres, each operating a 750 MW power plant and a rail gun.

Actually Mars covered as it is with iron oxide, is an ideal source of iron, despite the higher energies involved. 8,163 mine sites using a 750 MW power plant and rail gun capable of firing a 6.1 km/sec projectile off world - accurately - and have it guided to Earth - where it brakes in the Earth's atmosphere and descends directly to a customer's site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnnSiK5mayY

So, you have a large bus that is launched off Mars or Ceres, loaded with smaller cargos, that enter the upper atmosphere and descend directly to their buyers.

Manufactured goods, drugs, clothing, fabric, foods, etc., are also imported by interplanetary drone from off-world to Earth in the same way raw materials are imported described above. Of course, radio and laser traffic communicates data and software easily enough. So, literature, art, software, banking, finance, services can be done off-world. To support this accountants attorneys and executive representatives will operate in world the way foreign representatives used to operate in-country when sea travel took months. There will be regular traffic of these types of individuals. Telepresence will be possible on Earth, difficult off-world, so talented folks will be in demand in the frontiers and be greatly acclaimed. That acclaim in the frontier will reflexively add to the fame of the person when they return to Earth. For example, Mark Twain visited far flung regions of the globe, and was greatly beloved by those he met during his lecture tours, and when he returned to America, he was famous for having gone to those remote locations. The same will happen for artists, writers, philosophers, engineers, architects, medical folk, and so forth - that are exceptionally talented on Earth - and in great demand off-world.

Mark Twain - Following the Equator
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AL_Cbg5C9E

With 188,760 people per year - with a growth in capacity of 20% per year - and with population growth rate of 2% per year - with a 1/2% return per year - gives the following off-world populations;

Year Per Year-- Total

2020 188,760 188,760
2021 226,512 418,103
2022 271,814 696,188
2023 326,176 1,032,806
2024 391,411 1,439,709
2025 469,693 1,930,997
2026 563,631 2,523,592
2027 676,357 3,237,802
2028 811,628 4,097,997
2029 973,953 5,133,419

2030 1,168,743 6,379,163
2031 1,402,491 7,877,341
2032 1,682,989 9,678,490
2033 2,019,586 11,843,253
2034 2,423,503 14,444,404
2035 2,908,203 17,569,273
2036 3,489,843 21,322,655
2037 4,187,811 25,830,305
2038 5,025,373 31,243,132
2039 6,030,447 37,742,225

2040 7,236,536 45,544,894

http://go.nasa.gov/2gr8JY5

The sands of Mars are red. That's because they're made out of hematite. Why wouldn't you mine iron there and send it back to Earth with a rail gun? While you were doing that, you also make 14 other materials in abundance. In fact you make 5.65 bilion metric tons of stuff per year by mining 75.6 cubic kilometers of Mars dust per year. You make 2.35 billion metric tons of oxygen gas as well.

US MT/yr World MT/yr m3/year m3/year Material Multiple

520,000 12,225,705 4,355,176 102,394,420 Magnesium 738.50
5,390,000 126,724,138 46,293,921 1,088,415,080 Aluminium 69.48
150,000 3,526,646 3,241,820 7,218,336 Silicon 992.12
23,800,000 559,561,129 408,049,103 9,593,630,954 Phosphate 7.88
11,000,000 258,620,690 262,592,504 6,173,804,957 Sulphur 2.25
69,500,000 1,634,012,539 1,659,107,185 39,007,222,229 Salt 1.94
4,700,000 110,501,567 305,194,805 7,175,426,454 Potash 10.54
12,036,933 283,000,000 78,161,905 1,837,662,338 Quick Lime 41.15
1,190,000 27,978,056 56,407,791 1,326,201,991 Titanium 57.02
471,000 11,073,668 62,582,320 1,471,371,159 Chromium 51.39
750,000 17,633,229 88,039,130 2,069,885,505 Manganese 36.53
110,000,000 2,586,206,897 3,216,281,069 75,617,893,465 Steel 1.00
114,000 2,680,251 1,036,364 24,365,916 Nickel 3,103.43
960,000 22,570,533 10,909,091 256,483,329 Zinc 294.83
1,050 24,687 47,727 1,122,115 Bromine 67,388.75
------------- 5,656,339,734 3,216,281,069 75,617,893,465

Sending payloads at 6.1 km/sec from Mars requires 18.6 megajoules per kg. This is done over a three month period around the synodic period. So, this is a power over this period of 28.7 trillion watts - about 20% that used by humanity. To reduce the materials to the desired forms, requires about 15 megajoules per kg - so 2.5 months before sending the material on, requires the reduction of sand and rock into elemental forms.

The global demand is computed by taking the US demand, dividing that by the population and multiplying by the global popuation. SO, the steel is 2.6 billion rather than 1.6 billion tons per year.

28,700 launchers operating simultaneously arcross the planet, at 1 GW each is sufficient to send back to Earth all the things terrestrial humanity needs to live at US living standards in the materials in question - without harming the biosphere.

We've got a Mook on Mook on Mook reply here (minus the first two
Mooks)...

In article ,
says...
The sands of Mars are red. That's because they're made out of
hematite. Why wouldn't you mine iron there and send it back to
Earth with a rail gun?

Because steel made on earth is already quite cheap, so it would be
economic suicide to do what you propose.

Besides, one would think that a Mars colony would use such raw materials
to either build things they need on Mars or build things that are
actually worth exporting. Raw materials aren't going to cut it as an
export unless there is a return on that investment.

Sorry Mook, but this entire idea is b.s. I don't know how you got to
visions of Mars colonies sending quite common raw materials like iron,
silicon, aluminum, and etc. to earth by railgun, but it's just not going
to be viable economically.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.

On Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 12:17:14 AM UTC+13, Jeff Findley wrote:
We've got a Mook on Mook on Mook reply here (minus the first two
Mooks)...

In article ,
says...
The sands of Mars are red. That's because they're made out of
hematite. Why wouldn't you mine iron there and send it back to
Earth with a rail gun?

Because steel made on earth is already quite cheap, so it would be
economic suicide to do what you propose.

Steel has been cheap historically, but is rising inexorably as raw materials are depleted here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-s-rapid-shift


Besides, one would think that a Mars colony would use such raw materials
to either build things they need on Mars or build things that are
actually worth exporting.

That's a false choice. In order to use or build things on Mars local steel is needed. So Martians would need to supply themselves with steel made from hematite on the surface and carbon in the carbon dioxide in the air - which means any surplus to their needs could be exported.

Raw materials aren't going to cut it as an
export unless there is a return on that investment.

Correct. Prices are rising on Earth and Earth's ability to produce low cost steel will be non-existant in 64 years according to the experts. Some believe shortages may be arriving in as little at 12 years.

Sorry Mook,

I feel your love.

but this entire idea is b.s.

No it isn't.

I don't know how you got to
visions of Mars colonies sending quite common raw materials like iron,
silicon, aluminum, and etc. to earth by railgun, but it's just not going
to be viable economically.

That's your problem that you don't know something. Perhaps if you listened to those who know more than you - that might help.

More below.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.

The iron ore reserves of Earth at present seem quite vast, but continual exponential increase in consumption make this resource quite finite.

Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute has suggested iron ore will run out within 64 years based on an extremely conservative extrapolation of 2% growth per year. A 7% growth rate sees iron ore running out on Earth in 32 years. The Earth has 484.9 billion tons of economically recoverable iron ore.

So, to make steel on Earth you start with 2 tons of ore, 1 ton of carbon, half a ton of limestone and one ton of oxygen from 5 tons of air. There are 980 billion tons of economically recoverable coal in the world.

It takes 1.8 tons of metallurgical coal - or coking coal - to make 1.0 ton of coke used in steel production. 8% of all coal reserves are metallurgical variety. So, 24.3 billion tons steel possible to make with the proven reserves of coking coal we have today.

The Earth currently produces 350 billion tons per year of limestone and 7.5% of the Earth's crust is limestone, and there is plenty of economically recoverable limestone around. Only a small percentage of limestone is used in steel production - 0.8 billion tons per year.

So, the Earth's limit in steel production is about 200 billion tons and that's it, if limited by economically recoverable iron ore, ignoring coking coal limits. Only 24 billion more tons if limited by coking coal. This is 12 years at 7% growth and 14 years at 2% growth.

In contrast the Martian surface is littered with quadrillions of tons of hematite - with iron making up 2% of the Martian dust according to rovers sent there. There is more calcium in Martian dust than Iron! At 8% CaO matches Earth limestone in abundance. So, the limiting factor is carbon on Mars..

The Martian atmosphere has 26.4 trillion short tons of carbon dioxide. This can be reduced to CH4 by;

CO2 + 4 H2 -- CH4 + 2 H2O

and the CH4 may be reduced further by pyrolysis to;

CH4 + energy --- C + 2 H2

And the H2O made back into hydrogen and oxygen

H2O + energy --- H2 + 1/2 O2

Which makes 4 H2 in toto and takes us back to step one.

The energy needed is about 40 GJ/ton to power this process. Gotten from nuclear sources or solar sources, this works. The price of energy and manufacturing on Mars is the cost driver here.

So the Martian atmosphere yields 19.2 trillion tons of oxygen and 7.2 trillion tons of elemental carbon when extracted from the carbon dioxide. With recycling of carbon dioxide produced from burning the carbon and oxygen, sufficient carbon to make 1.8 quadrillion tons of low-carbon steel may be extracted from the planet using 72 quadrillion gigajoules.

As a side benefit, reducing CO2 from the Martian atmosphere yields 0.5 trillion tons of Nitrogen and 0.5 trillion tons of argon. Add 0.2 trillion tons of oxygen to the nitrogen, the oxygen extracted from the carbon and from the hematite and you have 0.7 trillion tons of Earth like atmosphere.

A ton of air at sea level occupies 24,783 cubic feet. So, 0.7 trillion tons of air is 17.4 quadrillion cubic feet. That's 117,855 cubic miles. A layer of air 100 feet deep at this pressure covers 174 trillion square feet - or 6.24 million square miles. 11% of the Martian surface pressurised at a depth of 100 feet. The entire surface may be pressurised at 9 foot depth.

http://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/cg...&context=cadrc

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media...ysy9052jpg.jpg

The background radiation on Mars is quite high relative to Earth. That means the locals will find ways to shield themselves from this hazard. It also means that the production and use of fissile materials will not have the same adverse consequences that they do when used within the sheilded garden of Earth's biosphere. Further the presence of nuclear weapons is nonexistent on Mars and will remain so under current UN treaties. For this reason, experts have looked seriously at broad use of small nuclear power plants using high concentration fissile fuels that would be dangerous for these reasons to use on Earth.

https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/203084main_...11-07%20V3.pdf

http://www.world-nuclear.org/informa...-reactors.aspx

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/c...9920005899.pdf

The Phoebus 2A produced over 4 GW of power from a reactor that weighed 800 pounds and was the size of a filing cabinet. A suitcase sized nuclear reactor that produces 750 MW of power has been made for use aboard US Navy Submarines using similar techniques.

These sorts of nuclear power plants will be produced and used in abundance on Mars. This will fulfill the promise of power 'too cheap to meter'

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/nucl...ower-revisited

This combined with a high degree of automation -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tf7IEVTDjng

that will make commodities on Mars very cheap as well!

This occurs at a time when the same materials on Earth are running out and rising dramatically in price!

So, at 40 GJ per ton a 750 MW suitcase sized power plant will produce 67.5 tons of steel an hour from 135.0 tons of hematite along with 371.3 tons of oxygen of which 2 tons is surplus and not recombined with the carbon that remains in the steel. Extracting replacement carbon also produces 10 tons of nitrogen -11 tons of argon - and with the nitrogen produces 12 tons of air per hour.

That's 297,400 cubic feet of air at 1 atmosphere. An acre flooded at this pressure to a 7 foot depth every hour. Oxygen can be made in surplus and combined with the argon as well, producing a Mars flavoured atmosphere that is only half nitrogen. This may have an adverse impact on certain bacteria that fix nitrogen. The advantage is use of the argon capture will permit doubling the rate of atmosphere production.

Four cubic feet of steel represents one ton of steel. A rod 1 foot in diameter and 5 feet long contains about a ton of steel. Projecting this off Mars at 14,000 mph at the right time and in the right direction, using a maglev track, takes it to Earth in 26 weeks.

A shallow cone 12 feet across and less than 1/2 inch thick, projected off Mars edge first in the same way - arriving at Earth pointy end first, provides a more controlled entry when arriving at Earth, and naturally uses aerobraking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerosh...yingSaucer.jpg

HAARP cannon tests in the 1960s routinely blasted instrumented shells out of cannons at 5,000 gees. We can do as well today. A maglev based cannon that operates at 5,000 gees takes only 1/8th second to accelerate a disk from rest to 14,000 mph. It takes 7.36 GJ of energy to blast a one ton disk like this off Mars. So, this takes 59.16 GW of power. 79 of the 750 MW suitcase sized modules. The rate of departure is 8 tons per second. That's 480 tons per minute. To have production match that ability to depart Mars, requires 430 suitcase sized power plants operating sweepers. 430 Acres of floor space may be pressurised with the air byproduct made every hour by this operation.

8 tons of steel per second is 0.25 billion tons per year. The Earth consumes 1.55 billion tons of steel per year. So, 6 setups like this produce sufficient steel for Earth today and pressurise 35,000 square miles of floor space with air.

Now steel requirements are between 8 pounds and 16 pounds per square foot depending on the nature of the construction - on Earth. On mars it is likely to be less than that due to lower gravity and partial support from pressurised structures.

http://www.steelconstruction.info/Co...ural_steelwork

Taking 4 pounds as an average per square foot, that means that 35,000 square miles per year of floor space construction on Mars will require 2 billion tons of steel consumed locally. So, we add 540 local sweepers per launcher, to supply local construction needs while sending material for export.

Now, this assuming continuous production and consumption along with continuous projection off world. The problem with this assumption is that the speeds increase dramatically when the planets are not in precisely the right positions. So, in practice we are limited to about 4 months out of every 26 months. So, the launchers send materials to Earth only 15.4% of the time. So, 40 launchers are required instead of 6 and only 66 miners per launcher are required to supply each launcher - and only 81 local miners per launcher are required as well. The surplus of launchers also mean that materials can be sent to other planets if desired as well.

The lead time for steel arrival will be 36 weeks, so time sensitive designs, like autobodies, will likely be made on Earth. For items that are not time sensitive, like rolled steel, this can be send. However, this means that we cannot merely form and ceramic coat an aeroshell and fit it with a reusable ACU.

Now the steel, when produced by automated systems, powered by nuclear power that is too cheap to meter, will make the steel itself be too cheap to meter - ON MARS! It won't be the case OFF MARS!

For much the same reason that petrol is $0.16 per litre in Saudi Arabia, and $1.83 per litre in New Zealand steel will be cheap on Mars!

At today's prices ON EARTH ($300 per ton) the value of the steel exported to Earth in this way is worth $465 billion per year presently. Divided among 40 launcher complexes this is $11.6 billion per complex per year! With a town of 35,000 people per complex this is $332,143 per person - allocating half this to income and half this capital utilisation (4.5% discount over 40 years) over $107 billion may be spent per complex to produce 8 tons per second for export to Earth and 10 tons per second to be made for use on Mars (along with air to flood the constructed space).

Mars would have 1.4 million inhabitants under this scenario, each earning $166,000 per year on average, have Earthside investors putting $4 trillion in bets on the planet, and building pressurised floor space at 16 acres per year per person! The US stock market engages in $2.8 quadrillion in trades each year. The shortages and difficulties are well known in the industry. The presence of iron on Mars is well known!

Only a small fraction would be employed in the mining operation. Most would be free to develop a wide range of ideas in the 16 acres of pressurised space each year.

A similar analysis can be done for aluminum, and other materials. The low hanging fruit is the rare earth and other precious metals abundant on Mars.

Power is an interesting possibility. One approach would be to build nuclear power stations and send them to Earth. This is an interesting approach. A 750 MW station processes 120 tons per hour of water into 13.3 tons per hour of hydrogen. This hydrogen combines with 73.15 tons of carbon dioxide in the air per hour to produce 28 tons per hour (4700 barrels per day) of synthetic petrol made from atmospheric CO2

http://newatlas.com/audi-creates-e-d...rom-co2/37130/

Enough to support 83,190 Earthlings at US rates of petrol consumption. At $30 per barrel of crude and adding $20 per barrel for refined product (which this unit produces) each unit generates $235,000 per day in revenue. A fully automated system with 4% operating cost, financed at 4.5% discount rate over a 40 year useful life - with a $10 million cost to return the device to Mars for rebuild and reuse - we can see that up to $597.4 million may be charged for each unit! Recalling that the cost of building anything on Mars is too cheap to meter - we can count this as profit to Mars. The 4.5% discount is counted as profit for Earth based capitalists and financiers.

The export of 778 of these per year matches the income earned from the export of raw steel and doubles the income of the planet! 64.72 million people are provided with petrol (and fertiliser and plastics) at the rate used in the USA per person at stable fixed long term costs. With 7.5 billion persons on Earth a total of 90,155 of these units may be deployed to provide 423.7 million barrels per day equivalent production of oil.

If operated on the oceans, near the shore, sea water may be desalinated. The GTHTR300 nuclear plant produces 300 MWe and uses its waste heat to desalinate water with multi-stage fractionation;

http://www.world-nuclear.org/informa...alination.aspx

A 750MWe plant produced on Mars - and operating in the ocean near the shore - produces more than double the amount of fresh water using the same process - and recovers and uses salts. Brine electrolysis produces sodium hydroxide and hydrochloric process - the chloralkali process. The source of all bleaches. The production of soaps and scents - basically everything produced by Procter & Gamble - is achieved by this. So, not only does a compact power plant produce abundant petrol, but located in the ocean, produces fresh water and many other items as well.

Setting up a production plant to produce one 750 MW plant of this type per hour, and shipping it to Earth, one launch out of every 28,800 launches on one maglev track - is sufficient to send one ton to Earth - which is far less than the size of the plant! (recall the weight of the Phoebus 2a weighed 800 lbs and produced 4100 MW!) This stems from using 100% pure fissile materials instead of 'reactor grade' fissile materials that are far less efficient.

One per hour deploys sufficient reactors to transform the Earth in 11 years.. Over the same period steel consumption would increase to US per capita rates so global steel demand would rise from 1.55 billion tons per year to 3..43 billion tons per year - a 7% rise per year compounded over the period.

Now, 83,190 persons consume 125.7 MWe - about 25.7 MWe for home use - the balance - for industrial, commercial, and other uses. The 750 MWe unit can easily be modified to supply this as well. At $0.11 per kWhe this adds $121.2 million per year to the revenue stream. Adding $2.23 billion to the value of the product when that revenue is discounted at 4.5% over 40 years.

A few million people on Mars doing a few things right, will transform life on Earth for billions. They will reap rewards amounting to millions of dollars per person on Mars. A Mars colony of this type will rescue Earth's moribound markets and provide real stable long term growth in the quadrillions of dollars as billions of people begin to have the fundamental resources needed to live a good life.

William Mook wrote:

To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

—to low Earth orbit.


So far so good. But, as usual, Mookie then spirals off into bootless
speculation.


Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.


There is no foundation for these cost 'guestimates'.


The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.


There is no 'expendable' part.


Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26
metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210
passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.


No. Each Transporter can deliver 100 tonnes of 'stuff' to Mars or 100
passengers. You don't get to stack the passengers in like cordwood
and you're overestimating cargo to Mars by over 3x and underestimating
mass per passenger by 4x.


Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.


No. If you are sending along everything in the Transporter that those
people "need to survive on Mars long term", your number of passengers
drops down to 10-15 and the rest of the 100 tonnes to Mars surface
becomes equipment. Musk foresees the first launches only carrying a
dozen or so people and the rest being cargo. Later on, he sees 9-10
cargo launches for every launch with passengers. HIS number make it
pretty clear that getting them to Mars surface takes around 1 tonne
per passenger and around 9 tonnes of other 'stuff' for them to survive
long term once they get there.

On to more bootless speculation...


Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.


You don't have three launch centers, you can't turn them around in a
week, You can't launch 3 of them a week, you're not going to keep
launching over a 52 week period, 75% of the launches are for FUEL
TANKERS, you're estimating 11x more passengers per ship than you can
get to Mars...

More bootless speculation, along with Mook's usual assumption of
magical technologies that don't exist.


Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.


And this is the biggest bit of silliness in your whole imaginary
'business case'. It's not you overestimating the passengers per ship
by 11x. It's not you underestimating the mass per passenger by 4x.
It's not you overestimating the mass per ship by 3x. It's not even
the magic house. It's the question of why these people would go to
Mars

The idea that you're going to get over 1% of this group PER YEAR to
decide to go is, well, ridiculous. You'll be lucky to get that
percentage TOTAL out of this group. What is their incentive to go?
Simply because you can multiply? Your estimates give a colony of 2
million in just a decade. Sane people think it will take a century to
get to something half that size.

snip remaining Mookery


--
"Ordinarily he is insane. But he has lucid moments when he is
only stupid."
-- Heinrich Heine