And the winner is...

A little over a year ago K2 asked this group a series of questions
about the future of space tourism (Rutan's Spaceship One had just
made its first flight higher than 100 km). Some of the questions
were about longer term predictions but the first question was about
how many people would spend $100k for suborbital flight in "the
first year". It isn't absolutely clear to me what "the first year"
meant, was it July 26th 2004 (date of his post) to July 26th 2005
or was it October 4th 2004 (date the Xprize winning flight) to
October 4th 2005. A year later it is now easier to guess that
whatever was meant by the first year won't change the outcome of
who had the most accurate guesstimate.

So the winner is: Hum! I'm not sure, but I think it is Dave O'Neill.
His reply was less than 40. But is that fair, one could of said
less than 10 billion and be sure to have a right answer. The next
best answer was mine which was 5. I consider that to be virtually
identical to "Perplexed in Peoria" who gave the answer 6.

I hope I didn't miss any answers that might be better.


Alain Fournier

In article ,
Alain Fournier wrote:

A little over a year ago K2 asked this group a series of questions
about the future of space tourism (Rutan's Spaceship One had just
made its first flight higher than 100 km). Some of the questions
were about longer term predictions but the first question was about
how many people would spend $100k for suborbital flight in "the
first year". It isn't absolutely clear to me what "the first year"
meant, was it July 26th 2004 (date of his post) to July 26th 2005
or was it October 4th 2004 (date the Xprize winning flight) to
October 4th 2005.

I would assume it meant the first year when suborbital flights were
commercially available. That will probably be 2007 or 2008
(thereabouts).

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What do you use as the correct number?

So far, the number of people who have put money down for $100,000+
suborbital tickets, either the full amount or 10% deposits, is
around 300 according to info released by Virgin Galactic and Space
Adventures.

"The company is selling $200,000 tickets for those who want to experience
space flight but don't want to spend time training to be astronauts. So far,
178 people have signed contracts to fly into space, and more than 100 have
paid for their tickets." - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - July.28.05
http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/jul05/344242.asp

"more than a hundred Space Adventures clients who have plunked down
deposits of $10,000 or more toward the $98,000 mission cost.
Twenty-six Space Adventures clients have paid in full for suborbital
flights, which guarantees them a spot near the front of the line." -
Forbes - May 9, 2005
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2005/0509/058.html

Before a single passenger has flown, there is already more than
$30M in ticket reservations for suborbital tourism. Seems to me
like a pretty strong sign that there is a market for it.

- Clark
www.hobbyspace.com



Alain Fournier wrote:

A little over a year ago K2 asked this group a series of questions
about the future of space tourism (Rutan's Spaceship One had just
made its first flight higher than 100 km). Some of the questions
were about longer term predictions but the first question was about
how many people would spend $100k for suborbital flight in "the
first year". It isn't absolutely clear to me what "the first year"
meant, was it July 26th 2004 (date of his post) to July 26th 2005
or was it October 4th 2004 (date the Xprize winning flight) to
October 4th 2005. A year later it is now easier to guess that
whatever was meant by the first year won't change the outcome of
who had the most accurate guesstimate.

So the winner is: Hum! I'm not sure, but I think it is Dave O'Neill.
His reply was less than 40. But is that fair, one could of said
less than 10 billion and be sure to have a right answer. The next
best answer was mine which was 5. I consider that to be virtually
identical to "Perplexed in Peoria" who gave the answer 6.

I hope I didn't miss any answers that might be better.


Alain Fournier

vze27b5m ) wrote:

: What do you use as the correct number?

: So far, the number of people who have put money down for $100,000+
: suborbital tickets, either the full amount or 10% deposits, is
: around 300 according to info released by Virgin Galactic and Space
: Adventures.

: "The company is selling $200,000 tickets for those who want to experience
: space flight but don't want to spend time training to be astronauts. So far,
: 178 people have signed contracts to fly into space, and more than 100 have
: paid for their tickets." - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - July.28.05
: http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/jul05/344242.asp

: "more than a hundred Space Adventures clients who have plunked down
: deposits of $10,000 or more toward the $98,000 mission cost.
: Twenty-six Space Adventures clients have paid in full for suborbital
: flights, which guarantees them a spot near the front of the line." -
: Forbes - May 9, 2005
: http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2005/0509/058.html

: Before a single passenger has flown, there is already more than
: $30M in ticket reservations for suborbital tourism. Seems to me
: like a pretty strong sign that there is a market for it.

I think you confuse 'market' with 'interest', and the latter won't
necessarily create the former.

Eric

: - Clark
: www.hobbyspace.com



: Alain Fournier wrote:
:
: A little over a year ago K2 asked this group a series of questions
: about the future of space tourism (Rutan's Spaceship One had just
: made its first flight higher than 100 km). Some of the questions
: were about longer term predictions but the first question was about
: how many people would spend $100k for suborbital flight in "the
: first year". It isn't absolutely clear to me what "the first year"
: meant, was it July 26th 2004 (date of his post) to July 26th 2005
: or was it October 4th 2004 (date the Xprize winning flight) to
: October 4th 2005. A year later it is now easier to guess that
: whatever was meant by the first year won't change the outcome of
: who had the most accurate guesstimate.
:
: So the winner is: Hum! I'm not sure, but I think it is Dave O'Neill.
: His reply was less than 40. But is that fair, one could of said
: less than 10 billion and be sure to have a right answer. The next
: best answer was mine which was 5. I consider that to be virtually
: identical to "Perplexed in Peoria" who gave the answer 6.
:
: I hope I didn't miss any answers that might be better.
:
:
: Alain Fournier
: