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Are we alone in our galaxy? Are we alone in our universe? Not a 'chance'?
'Statistically impossible' is incorrect.
'Statistically highly unlikely' is better phrasing. The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than 1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is lower than 1/billion. Of course these numbers are wild guesses. With 200 billion galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars, there are roughly 20,000 billion billion stars in our visible universe. That is 20,000 - 000,000,000 - 000,000,000 stars. Of course, it could be 2,000 or even 200,000 billion billion stars. These numbers are rough extrapolations only as billions of stars and billions of galaxies are not visible. Let's assume there are 20,000 billion billion stars. Also assume each galaxy has at least one planet with intelligent life on it (at our level or better) (this is a very very conservative guess) then there are 200, 000,000,000 civilizations in the visible universe. How many of these would be 1 million or 10 million or 100 million years ahead of us, assuming the universe is approximately 15 billion years old and 100 million years is only 0.66% of this total time span? 100 million years is only 0.66% of the total time span! So it is easy to contemplate that there can be millions of those civilizations 1% or 1 or 10 million years or more ahead of us. Of course, out of the 200 billion civilizations 99% or more may have been destroyed or have become extinct. So if we assume that only 1% avoided destruction, that still leaves 2 billion civilizations that survived, colonized other galaxies and/or are still traveling through space for millions of years. Assuming some are in galaxies over 1 billion light years away from our Milky Way galaxy, then if they traveled e.g. in cryogenic state for over 500 million years at the speed of light, they still would not have reached us. This assumes that speed of light is the upper limit. Traveling in cryogenic state would also not age the travelers. In addition, these travelers would basically be immortal, being able to grow organs, limbs, etc., whenever needed. In addition, they could return to their home galaxy after millions of years (if they wanted) and still find the beings/friends they left behind as those would not have aged either. Mind boggling. In a nutshell, the numbers are so huge, even if you multiply a very low probability factor times a very large number you will get a sizable number. And I think that that probability factor is not that small but much higher than one advanced planet per galaxy of 100 billion stars. That means we are not alone in our own galaxy with its 200-500 billion stars. If I assume one 'more-advanced' civilization per 10 million stars, there would be 20,000 - 50,000 of such 'more-advanced' civilizations in our own galaxy. Of course, all these numbers are wild guesses/speculations but it's an illustration of the fact that when we talk about our galaxy and our visible universe the numbers are 'astronomically' huge. As the numbers are so huge = Carl Sagan's billions and billions, or better billions TIMES billions, I believe that most galaxies have many millions of habitable planets with life. Many people don't understand very large numbers and are not trained in statistics, and would immediately reject such ideas. They cannot understand what billions TIMES billions really represents. Even with low probabilities and massive destruction of civilizations, the remaining numbers most likely are still huge. If you asked me to guess how many 'more-advanced' civilizations there are in our own Milky Way, I would say many more than 20,000. If you asked me why 'they' have not contacted us, I would say I don't know, maybe we are not advanced enough - yet. I find it a very exciting and intriguing idea that we most likely have tens of thousands of advanced civilizations right in our own galaxy. I also realize the vastness of the universe and even the vastness of our own galaxy. Our own galaxy's rough diameter is estimated at over 100,000 light years! That means it takes light 100,000 years to travel from one side to the other side. Mind boggling. And it takes a multiple of 100,000 years to travel to the nearest large galaxy Andromeda. Even several million years - just to the nearest large galaxy! And billions of years to travel to the other side/'far side' (if there is one) of our universe. Many people think we are alone in our galaxy, even in our universe. However I am convinced that life (biological reproduction) was created via and in material processes, probably via intermediate stages of self-reproducing and interlinking molecules to self-reproducing organisms and then to more complex organisms, etc. Nowhere is a unique all-powerful creator needed. Given billions of material processes over billions of years, statistically some arising molecular structures will by chance have self-reproducing properties, which get propagated. Via those properties these structures over time will mushroom into billions of structures, etc., etc.. Wherever there is matter and the right environment and millions or billions of years, life will evolve from matter. That means we are not unique, not uniquely created by a single all-powerful God: We are here by chance. With 20,000 billion billion stars and with the age of our universe approximately 15 billion years, life evolved billions of times. Why we are here by chance, why matter exists, why we made from matter exist, cannot be answered. However, although we cannot answer that question, we do not need to invent a powerful creator to explain it. Not being able to answer a mystery is no argument for the existence of a single powerful creator. As I am convinced life can evolve from material processes, life is abundant in our galaxy and abundant in our universe. Even intelligent life. As primitive life competes for resources, the more primitive civilizations likely will be violent. Many advanced civilizations that have reached biological immortality may not be, but I am not sure. (I'll read Asimov on this soon) With regards, Michael M. Terra |
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