A Space & astronomy forum. SpaceBanter.com

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Go Back   Home » SpaceBanter.com forum » Space Science » Policy
Site Map Home Authors List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Web Partners

COTS-CRS price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER thanShuttle



 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old February 11th 10, 03:57 PM posted to sci.space.policy
gaetanomarano
external usenet poster
 
Location: Italy
Posts: 493
Default COTS-CRS price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER thanShuttle

---
Shuttle: launch cost $600M, payload 24 tons max (+7 astronauts) = $25M
per ton to ISS
---
Falcon/Dragon: COTS+CRS funds to SpaceX $2.1 Bn / 20 tons (and ZERO
astronauts) = $105M per ton to the ISS
---
so, the "cheap" Falcon/Dragon price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES
HIGHER than the "expensive" Shuttle!!!
---
also, send seven astronauts with a Soyuz (instead of a Shuttle) will
cost $51M per seat x 7 = $357M
---
Ads
  #2  
Old February 11th 10, 04:45 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Al[_5_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 15
Default COTS-CRS price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER thanShuttle

On Feb 11, 9:57*am, gaetanomarano wrote:
---
Shuttle: launch cost $600M, payload 24 tons max (+7 astronauts) = $25M
per ton to ISS
---
Falcon/Dragon: COTS+CRS funds to SpaceX $2.1 Bn / 20 tons (and ZERO
astronauts) = $105M per ton to the ISS
---
so, the "cheap" Falcon/Dragon price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES
HIGHER than the "expensive" Shuttle!!!
---
also, send seven astronauts with a Soyuz (instead of a Shuttle) will
cost $51M per seat x 7 = $357M
---


Interesting numbers.
Looked to see if there is a comparison with the Progress, ATV, HTV,
Cygnus, ....can find the payloads but not the cost per delivery , just
looked for un-manned costs.
  #3  
Old February 11th 10, 06:28 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Rick Jones[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 587
Default COTS-CRS price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER than ?Shuttle

gaetanomarano wrote:
---
Shuttle: launch cost $600M, payload 24 tons max (+7 astronauts) = $25M
per ton to ISS
---
Falcon/Dragon: COTS+CRS funds to SpaceX $2.1 Bn / 20 tons (and ZERO
astronauts) = $105M per ton to the ISS


If you are going to include the non-recurring costs of Falcon/Dragon
in the per-ton figures, you need also to include the non-recurring
costs of Shuttle.

http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php suggests their contract with NASA
was for a minimum of 12 flights. (And claims 1.6 billion). With an
option to order additional flights to 3.1 billion.

rick jones
--
denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance, rebirth...
where do you want to be today?
these opinions are mine, all mine; HP might not want them anyway...
feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hp.com but NOT BOTH...
  #4  
Old February 11th 10, 08:44 PM posted to sci.space.policy
David Spain
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,901
Default COTS-CRS price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER than ?Shuttle

Rick Jones writes:

gaetanomarano wrote:
---
Shuttle: launch cost $600M, payload 24 tons max (+7 astronauts) = $25M
per ton to ISS
---
Falcon/Dragon: COTS+CRS funds to SpaceX $2.1 Bn / 20 tons (and ZERO
astronauts) = $105M per ton to the ISS


If you are going to include the non-recurring costs of Falcon/Dragon
in the per-ton figures, you need also to include the non-recurring
costs of Shuttle.


I completely agree. To do apples to apples you need to do the following,

From:

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/383305main_C...SDHLV_Rev1.pdf

page 5 of this document yields a cost 'estimate'* of 5.15 billion dollars
for shuttle development costs.

Using the CPI inflation calculator at

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl

and plugging in $1 for 1971 dollars and coverting to 2006 dollars (the year
Space X was awarded its first COTS contract) you get a figure of $4.98

Now multiply 5.15B by 4.98 yields a cost of 25.647B dollars in 2006
dollars.

Now if we do the calc we get:

NASA/Gov. funds to develop space shuttle 25.647B + 600M per launch =
26.247B, payload 24 tons max (+7 astronauts) = $1.093B per ton to ISS.

Dave

*Best I could do in less than 15 minutes of research, anyone have a better
figure?
  #5  
Old February 11th 10, 09:02 PM posted to sci.space.policy
gaetanomarano
external usenet poster
 
Location: Italy
Posts: 493
Default COTS-CRS price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER than?Shuttle


If you are going to include the non-recurring costs of Falcon/Dragon
in the per-ton figures, you need also to include the non-recurring
costs of Shuttle.


the Shuttle R&D costs was already amortized 30 years ago, while, NOW
the REAL price for the CURRENT annual NASA budget is $600M

also, the $600M "price" INCLUDES the annual fixed costs, while, the
Falcon/Dragon "annual fixed costs" at KSC are "FREE" for SpaceX !!!

that, since, NASA gives its know-how and assistance, the launch base
and everything needed to launch the Falcon-9 from KSC, entirely FREE

in other words, SpaceX will send 20 tons to the ISS for $2.1 billion
ONLY thanks to these (very expensive) "services" given FREE since paid
by the NASA budget/US taxpayers dolalrs!!!

if we add the costs that SpaceX has FREE from NASA (KSC, launch base,
launch pad, assembly building, launch costs, NASA engineers and know-
how, etc.) the price-per-ton-to-ISS could likely cost, not "only"
$105M per ton, but $200-300M per ton or more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

so, the "cheap" SpaceX prices are mainly due to the money given away
by NASanta Claus...

..
  #6  
Old February 11th 10, 09:35 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Me
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 489
Default As usual, gaetanomarano is wrong

On Feb 11, 4:02*pm, gaetanomarano wrote:

gaetanomarano, know something before you post. Everything you said is
wrong. You are still clueless.

also, the $600M "price" INCLUDES the annual fixed costs, while, the
Falcon/Dragon "annual fixed costs" at KSC are "FREE" for SpaceX !!!


wrong.

A. Spacex pad is on CCAFS
B. Spacex pays for all the services it gets from the Air Force
(electrical power, water, sewage, etc)
C. Space pays and does all the work for its fixed costs. It does all
the maintenance itself.
D. Spacex is paying for and building its own facilities. I


that, since, NASA gives its know-how and assistance, the launch base
and everything needed to launch the Falcon-9 from KSC, entirely FREE



in other words, SpaceX will send 20 tons to the ISS for $2.1 billion
ONLY thanks to these (very expensive) "services" given FREE since paid
by the NASA budget/US taxpayers dolalrs!!!

if we add the costs that SpaceX has FREE from NASA (KSC, launch base,
launch pad, assembly building, launch costs, NASA engineers and know-
how, etc.) the price-per-ton-to-ISS could likely cost, not "only"
$105M per ton, but $200-300M per ton or more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


d. The CRS price is all that SPaceX gets from NASA. It does not get
free labor or help from NASA engineers, it did not get an assembly
building or pad from NASA.

  #7  
Old February 11th 10, 09:48 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Rick Jones[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 587
Default As usual, gaetanomarano is wrong

Me wrote:
d. The CRS price is all that SPaceX gets from NASA. It does not get
free labor or help from NASA engineers, it did not get an assembly
building or pad from NASA.


At this point, how many flights have NASA purchased with their money?

rick jones
--
Wisdom Teeth are impacted, people are affected by the effects of events.
these opinions are mine, all mine; HP might not want them anyway...
feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hp.com but NOT BOTH...
  #8  
Old February 11th 10, 09:49 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Me
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 489
Default COTS-CRS price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER thanShuttle

On Feb 11, 10:57*am, gaetanomarano wrote:
---
Shuttle: launch cost $600M, payload 24 tons max (+7 astronauts) = $25M
per ton to ISS
---
Falcon/Dragon: COTS+CRS funds to SpaceX $2.1 Bn / 20 tons (and ZERO
astronauts) = $105M per ton to the ISS
---
so, the "cheap" Falcon/Dragon price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES
HIGHER than the "expensive" Shuttle!!!
---
also, send seven astronauts with a Soyuz (instead of a Shuttle) will
cost $51M per seat x 7 = $357M
---


You calculations are wrong.

The CRS cargo weight is what is deliver to the ISS. The cargo is in
the form of bags. That is how Spacex gets paid, not cargo to orbit
which would include the weight of the Dragon.

To be an apples to apple comparison. The shuttle payload capability
(24 tons ) is not the correct number to use. It is the carrying
capability of an MPLM, which is around 5 tons.

So shuttle cost is 120 million per ton
  #9  
Old February 11th 10, 09:52 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Me
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 489
Default As usual, gaetanomarano is wrong

On Feb 11, 4:48*pm, Rick Jones wrote:
Me wrote:
d. *The CRS price is all that SPaceX gets from NASA. *It does not get
free labor or help from NASA engineers, it did not get an assembly
building or pad from NASA.


At this point, how many flights have NASA purchased with their money?

rick jones



I don't know how many are in work at this moment. Spacex does not get
all the money up front. It is per a payment milestone per mission.

  #10  
Old February 12th 10, 01:21 AM posted to sci.space.policy
gaetanomarano
external usenet poster
 
Location: Italy
Posts: 493
Default COTS-CRS price-per-ton-to-ISS is OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER thanShuttle


The shuttle payload capability
(24 tons ) is not the correct number to use. *It is the carrying
capability of an MPLM, which is around 5 tons.

So shuttle cost is 120 million per ton


..

it's just (bad) PROPAGANDA for SpaceX, the "new God" of the space
business!!!

1. if we consider that a Soyuz seat costs $51M each the price of the
Shuttle's 24 tons max cargo (LESS the $357M saved for the astronauts)
is ONLY $243 million!!!

2. the price of the Falcon/Dragon cargo il absolutely CLEAR because
SpaceX has received $250M from NASA and $250M from private investors
for COTS and the CRS contract value is $1,6Bn to carry a total of 20
tons to ISS, the calulations of costs/tons is easy, that is $105M per
ton carried to the ISS, and it's a VERY VERY VERY HIGH PRICE !!!

3. the pressurized payload carried by the MPLM is over 9 tons (Mass -
4,082 kg empty; ~13,200 kg fully loaded) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-P...gistics_Module

4. using the MPLM, the price-per-ton carried to the ISS is only $65M
(if we DON'T consider the money saved with the 7 astronauts seats) or
ONLY $27M per ton if we consider that, each Shuttle flight, means
$357M saved in Soyuz seats!!!

5. the Falcon/Dragon duo can't carry more than a copule o tons, since,
the great part of Falcon's max payload is used for the Dragon, SM,
propellants, navigation system, solar arrays and everything needed to
carry the (small) pressurized payload of the Dragon to the ISS

6. the Shuttle don't need to add a SM, propellants or other things,
since, all them, are INCLUDED in the Shuttle itself, so, the 24 tons
of cargo of the Shuttle (if optimized with better and lighter modules
and/or putting the full payload in the cargo-bay) could be nearly all
a NET cargo

7. also assuming that an optimized use of the Shuttle payload can
carry only 15 tons of NET cargo, the price per ton is ONLY $40M (if we
don't consider the money saved with the 7 astronauts seats) or $16M
per ton if we consider that each Shuttle launch means a $357M saving
in Soyuz seats

so, from EVERY point of view, the Shuttle price-per-ton is 40% to 80%
LESS than the COTS+CRS price!!!

..
 




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
More funds for COTS-D Pat Flannery Policy 0 May 1st 09 06:27 PM
What if(on higher life in higher dimension) G=EMC^2 Glazier[_1_] Misc 8 February 5th 09 04:56 PM
Not quite COTS Allen Thomson Policy 3 September 22nd 08 06:27 PM
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Three Times Higher Than Expected kT Policy 44 June 8th 07 03:06 AM
Six times the fun for twice the price. . . Tom Merkle Policy 45 December 14th 03 02:02 AM


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 08:41 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004-2022 SpaceBanter.com.
The comments are property of their posters.