Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit

On 03 Aug 2003 18:23:22 GMT, (G EddieA95) wrote:

super-intelligent machines: By 2100 right? Come on their still
learning to walk and now they are our new masters? Also if they were
super intelligent, then they would more likely take care of us.

Like we take care of our dumber animal neighbors?

They have the intelligence to do a bette job and the lack of the
emotion to avoid getting bored doing it.

Also when a space revolution occurs and NASA lays dead, then will
humans live in space and away from all these threats.

In space, AI will be even more powerful.

I am sure if it can get to space.

On earth you can turn off a machine if it gets too smart.

The fear of intelligence...

Not if you depend on it for the air you breathe.

So then it can soon teach you some respect.

Viruses will be carried in spaceships then, the way they are carried by
jetliners now.

Computer programs in jetliners are "firmware", which are not subject
to computer viruses.

Intelligent machines in the future won't like people screwing with
their brains, where the connection port will be the first thing to go.

Cardman.

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On 03 Aug 2003 18:20:13 GMT, (G EddieA95) wrote:

nuclear terrorism: Like even a third world War could destroy our
entire species let alone terrorists with like one crude bomb.

Actually, WW3 is more likely to return humankind to the Middle Ages.

Sounds kind of cool.

At that
point, any concerns about AI, or genetic tampering, etc, will become
moot.

True for a while.

The threats will involve plague,

Perhaps, but some people could get out the books on disease prevention
and cure.

How do they (a) preserve the books, and (b) remember how to read.

Not to mention, how do they access the vast body of information stored
digitally?

On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 08:12:22 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .
On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 13:16:14 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

Perhaps, but the human race could be brought below viability levels on a
global level and then die out. Met any dinosaurs recently?

What like the crocodiles and alligators...

And have you noticed how wide spread they are?

One of the reasons why they lived on was due to staying in the same
places all the time. Still I answered your question with a "yes".

I have been reading the odds, where even a recent computer calculation
and simulation showed that impacts were less likely than expected and
questioned if we should bother looking for them at all.

You don't understand probability then.

You should read the science data then, when they can indeed count how
uncommon they are.

Sure, some people might survive, but not civilisation.

And yet all the knowledge is available for when society supports
enough population once again.

How?

Diseases do not destroy books, computers, file data and tons of
equipment. So it is all there to read when they pick it up.

Knowledge above all else is the key to advanced civilization.

And how does it live on?

Know what a book is?

That is what they said back in like the 1950s, where here we are with
no intelligent robots or flying cars.

shrug So, they also said we wouldn't land on the moon either.

There was lots of science fiction around about landing on the Moon and
even a few movies before it happened. And basic physics said it was
possible long before it occurred.

Intelligent machines are a different question, when we are still not
sure how our own intelligence works.

Do you have pets? Animal conversation, wildlife parks that Australian
guy and his crocodiles.

Tigers, the great apes and all the other animals we're not going to have for
much longer?

I doubt if they will become exist, when they are too well known.

The 3000 or so species that no longer exist?

No doubt in that DNA sampling bank that may being them back to life
one day.

I think you mean Issac Asimov.

Yes, too many authors these days.

What on earth do you base that on?

That these intelligent machines will be created by humans. Where a
rule like "do not kill humans" would be a good start.

Cardman.

On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 08:13:18 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .

Perhaps, but some people could get out the books on disease prevention
and cure.

How do they (a) preserve the books,

I have a book that is over 300 years old. I preserve it by leaving it
on my shelf and not assing about with it.

There are books simply everywhere in society. Most people's houses,
the public library, collages and universities, the book shop and tons
more.

And all of them will still be sitting there after this fictional
disease has killed 99.9999999% of all humans.

Most importantly is that these books will last long enough to allow
time for society to be restored. After that creating a disease will
become the worst crime possible and subject to instant execution.

and (b) remember how to read.

It is called "patenting".

Not to mention, how do they access the vast body of information stored
digitally?

The computers will still be around, where people would have
electricity restored within days to power a few up.

People will then search the streets looking to collect hard drives.

Cardman.

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 08:12:22 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .
On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 13:16:14 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

Perhaps, but the human race could be brought below viability levels on
a
global level and then die out. Met any dinosaurs recently?

What like the crocodiles and alligators...

And have you noticed how wide spread they are?

One of the reasons why they lived on was due to staying in the same
places all the time. Still I answered your question with a "yes".



I have been reading the odds, where even a recent computer calculation
and simulation showed that impacts were less likely than expected and
questioned if we should bother looking for them at all.

You don't understand probability then.

You should read the science data then, when they can indeed count how
uncommon they are.

Really? All the data suggests they are all too common.

Hint: You need to understand how individual risk assessments are actually
made, not how you think they are made.

Sure, some people might survive, but not civilisation.

And yet all the knowledge is available for when society supports
enough population once again.

How?

Diseases do not destroy books, computers, file data and tons of
equipment. So it is all there to read when they pick it up.

Books rot perfectly well all by themselves.

Computers need quite an extra ordinary support structure to keep
functioning.

Given that most people will be worried about mundane things like food and
fuel, looking after books and keeping computers working will be quite a long
way down that list.

Knowledge above all else is the key to advanced civilization.

And how does it live on?

Know what a book is?

Yes, I also know quite a lot about the dymanics of acid cleaned paper.

Here's an experiment for you. Take a pile of books and put them in a
building for a few years with no maintenance, probably broken windows and a
leaking roof, then come back and try to read them.

Historically knowledge has either been lost, or you've had people like monks
responsible for re-writing the information and thus saving it. Given the
kind of scenarios that we are talking about, this is unlikely to be an
option because of the shear volume of data and the type of printing.

Secondly, I am interested in how you would, for example, from a book, work
out how to make a viable anti-biotic.

That is what they said back in like the 1950s, where here we are with
no intelligent robots or flying cars.

shrug So, they also said we wouldn't land on the moon either.

There was lots of science fiction around about landing on the Moon and
even a few movies before it happened. And basic physics said it was
possible long before it occurred.

And what part of physics says AI is impossible?

Intelligent machines are a different question, when we are still not
sure how our own intelligence works.

You related to John Ordover?

He was saying the same thing. While we do not know, its quite irrelevent to
the topic of AI, or for that matter other methods of E-I (Enhanced
Intelligence) where we do have some very good ideas.

We also have another 20 years before we get the necessary hardware which,
based on historical developments, is plenty of time.

Do you have pets? Animal conversation, wildlife parks that Australian
guy and his crocodiles.

Tigers, the great apes and all the other animals we're not going to have
for
much longer?

I doubt if they will become exist, when they are too well known.

The 3000 or so species that no longer exist?

No doubt in that DNA sampling bank that may being them back to life
one day.

Heh.

I think you mean Issac Asimov.

Yes, too many authors these days.

What on earth do you base that on?

That these intelligent machines will be created by humans. Where a
rule like "do not kill humans" would be a good start.

Then you won't mind telling me how you can code such a rule...

BTW - how would like to define human?

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 08:13:18 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .

Perhaps, but some people could get out the books on disease prevention
and cure.

How do they (a) preserve the books,

I have a book that is over 300 years old. I preserve it by leaving it
on my shelf and not assing about with it.

I assume that it is therefore made with a low acid paper, quite a thick one
too probably. Pick it up and examine that paper, then get a text book
printed in the last century and compare the paper types.

I also bet you don't let it get damp, or too cold or let mice or rats in
your house. How do you propose to do this if you have no central heating
and food is far more important.

There are books simply everywhere in society. Most people's houses,
the public library, collages and universities, the book shop and tons
more.

Yes, none of them are in good positions to survive.

And all of them will still be sitting there after this fictional
disease has killed 99.9999999% of all humans.

So, in the UK, for example, that leaves slightly less than 1 person alive.
Globally that would be 6 people, so I assume you mean it would be less
effective a killer than that. 6 people spread around the world isn't all
that viable.

If it was an ebola style killer which is I believe around 90% fatal, we have
a more reasonable number: 6,000,000 left in the UK. Of course, the disease
is not going to be selective so you have no way of telling of those 6
million who actually has skills which are not easy to get nor written down
in books (like, for example, running power stations etc...)

Then there's 50,000,000 bodies to deal with. That'll make the hospitals and
cities pretty damn unpleasant for the survivors. Then you have to worry
about food and that sort of thing. You still worried about books? Or will
you be getting a riffle, shotgun and a bunch of ammo and raiding every
supermarket not already looted?

Most importantly is that these books will last long enough to allow
time for society to be restored. After that creating a disease will
become the worst crime possible and subject to instant execution.

How long do you suggest this will be?

The vast majority of books in places like libraries and stores will be
useless in a few years, probably less, as the roof fails, windows break,
mould sets in and the natural acidity of the paper degrades them.

and (b) remember how to read.

It is called "patenting".

Sorry?

Surely eating, heat etc... will take priority.

Not to mention, how do they access the vast body of information stored
digitally?

The computers will still be around, where people would have
electricity restored within days to power a few up.

A few days?

You don't think people will be a little more interested in feeding
themselves?

You seem to have a very odd idea of how quickly things could fall apart in a
modern society.

How do you propose restoring the power? Large scale electricity needs a
huge number of people. I suppose you could issolate a power station so the
sub stations didn't trip when you try to draw current, then you'd need a
hydro station, as, looking at the UK, you'll not have the resources to run a
coal fired or natural gas station. Then you need to understand the
lubrication system and other maintenance schedules to avoid boiling
bearings.

If you are thinking about small scale generators, where is the fuel going to
come from?

You seem to think that each aspect of technology exists without
interdependancies. I suggest you try drawing up a Gant chart of a typical
aspect of your life and don't skimp on the dependancies...

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 16:04:29 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 08:12:22 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

You don't understand probability then.

You should read the science data then, when they can indeed count how
uncommon they are.

Really? All the data suggests they are all too common.

Small ones are fairly common, but big ones take millions of years to
come around. Even then not even one single dinosaur species was wiped
out even hundreds of years after their big one.

Hint: You need to understand how individual risk assessments are
actually
made, not how you think they are made.

There will be no extinction causing meteor strike any time soon.

Can't say that with any certainty at all.

Diseases do not destroy books, computers, file data and tons of
equipment. So it is all there to read when they pick it up.

Books rot perfectly well all by themselves.

Funny how all my books have not rotted away...

Not at all. Leave them in your garden shed with an open door for a year.

Computers need quite an extra ordinary support structure to keep
functioning.

The metal in computers lasts even longer than books, where most
computers these days become obsolete instead of breaking.

Maybe I should get out my ZX Spectrum from my cold, dark loft, which
is not unlike this future world.

Tried using it recently?

Given that most people will be worried about mundane things like food

Food is hardly a problem to start with, when shops contain long
lasting canned goods. Spam I hear can even last indefinitely.

Crops would reproduce and spread, fruit would continue, where due to
it being a world of animals now, then meat is not a problem.

You are really that naive?

and fuel,

All those petrol stations...

Do you know the leakage rate from a petrol storage facility?

looking after books and keeping computers working will be quite a long
way down that list.

They can just sit there until someone wants them.

Nope.

Know what a book is?

Yes, I also know quite a lot about the dymanics of acid cleaned paper.

Here's an experiment for you. Take a pile of books and put them in a
building for a few years with no maintenance, probably broken windows

Why would windows be broken? This deadly disease instead of knocking
them flat causes a window breaking rage?

Glass breaks.

Windows don't break themselves,

Sorry they do. Roofs leak too.

where these days windows are often
made from toughened, if not shatterproof, glass.

There is simply no way that millions of buildings would all have
broken windows.

So with sunlight coming though the windows, then the building will
have suitable heat even in cold weather.

Ever tried leaving your house without any heating all winter?

Damp, isn't it...

and a leaking roof,

I have lived here for 17 years now, where never in all that time has
the roof once leaked.

Really? Lucky sod.

My old school leaked like sieve from the day it was built.

Such things require causes, where you have no causes.

Really they don't.

then come back and try to read them.

Why not dump them outside...

I have been storing paper goods in my garage for over a year now,
which is an environment much worse than an unoccupied house, where
even now they are just fine.

Good damp proof? Good maintenance?

Historically knowledge has either been lost,

Word of mouth kind of knowledge, which is due to not finding a
suitable application.

Got a copy of Plato's discourse on the nature of humour?

or you've had people like monks responsible for re-writing the
information and thus saving it.

And now using the newly gained knowledge of books and printing.

Can you run a lithograph?

Given the
kind of scenarios that we are talking about, this is unlikely to be an
option because of the shear volume of data

Some information could be lost certainly, but most of it will sit
around until needed.

Sorry, you are dreaming.

and the type of printing.

Break into some house and take the scanner and printer.

And how do you maintain them?

Secondly, I am interested in how you would, for example, from a book,
work
out how to make a viable anti-biotic.

Not unlike a university student would I guess, but you tend to learn
more things when you actually go and do it.

No, go on... do some research - tell me how you intend to manufacturer the
equipment.

There was lots of science fiction around about landing on the Moon and
even a few movies before it happened. And basic physics said it was
possible long before it occurred.

And what part of physics says AI is impossible?

None, but it does say that it is not easy.

Never said it wasn't.

Intelligent machines are a different question, when we are still not
sure how our own intelligence works.

You related to John Ordover?

All us *humans*...

He was saying the same thing. While we do not know, its quite irrelevent
to
the topic of AI,

Not so, when the best way to make an intelligent machine is to try and
copy our own intelligence.

Really? You a neural scientist?

or for that matter other methods of E-I (Enhanced
Intelligence) where we do have some very good ideas.

Then I will look forwards to the results.

We also have another 20 years before we get the necessary hardware which,
based on historical developments, is plenty of time.

The hardware is the easier of the two parts.

That these intelligent machines will be created by humans. Where a
rule like "do not kill humans" would be a good start.

Then you won't mind telling me how you can code such a rule...

function actioncheck (action)
{
if (action==killhuman)
alternateplan();
}

BTW - how would like to define human?

If they ever do manage to create superior intelligence, then
understanding what humans are is the easy part.

In other words no.

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 16:21:18 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .

I have a book that is over 300 years old. I preserve it by leaving it
on my shelf and not assing about with it.

I assume that it is therefore made with a low acid paper, quite a thick
one
too probably.

Yes.

Thought so.

Pick it up and examine that paper, then get a text book
printed in the last century and compare the paper types.

Hey, they can make better paper.

They made more expensive paper.

I got some of those type going back to like the 1930, where they are
also in great condition.

I also bet you don't let it get damp,

Maybe because I do not have "idiot" as a middle name.

You don't?


or too cold

Cold on it own is not too much of a problem.

In the British climate it is normally damp too.

or let mice or rats in your house.

Mice and rats generally look for food, which excludes books, where
they are also not good at climbing smooth walls.

Sure they will damage more than a few books, but the likes of cats
would help keep the numbers down.

Heh.

How do you propose to do this if you have no central heating

I do not use any central heating in my house beyond hot water. Double
glazing, cavity wall insulation, loft insulation, which makes things
hot enough already without making more heat,

You never use heating? TV's, computers, cookers etc...

All of which heat things.

and food is far more important.

Thanks to agriculture most of our wilderness has been clearly away to
produce... wait for it.... FOOD!

You know how to grow food?

Cats and Dogs would prove popular for an easy meat source. They eat
them in China after all.

Dogs - yes, do you want to think about the dogs for a while?

There are books simply everywhere in society. Most people's houses,
the public library, collages and universities, the book shop and tons
more.

Yes, none of them are in good positions to survive.

I see no reason why not.

I expect not.

And all of them will still be sitting there after this fictional
disease has killed 99.9999999% of all humans.

So, in the UK, for example, that leaves slightly less than 1 person
alive.
Globally that would be 6 people, so I assume you mean it would be less
effective a killer than that.

Think of about five global colonies totaling at about two hundred
people each, but where also very few people may have actually
survived, which explains my 6 miracle people.

What?

6 people spread around the world isn't all that viable.

Not even the best disease will kill everyone.

If it was an ebola style killer which is I believe around 90% fatal, we
have
a more reasonable number: 6,000,000 left in the UK.

Hardly a social collapse.

Nope. But a likely collapse in technological society.

If we say, look at a few tens of thousands it gets worse.

Of course, the disease
is not going to be selective so you have no way of telling of those 6
million who actually has skills which are not easy to get

It is all random, which means that is should be fairly evenly spread.

Yes. Think about it.

nor written down
in books (like, for example, running power stations etc...)

My father worked on a nuclear power station along with his brother.

So you know how to run one?

Then there's 50,000,000 bodies to deal with.

With six million people available that certainly will be done, with
less people they would just rot.

Really, and the consequences are...

Come on, you're making this too easy for me.

That'll make the hospitals and
cities pretty damn unpleasant for the survivors.

One of the early things to do would be to use about half of remaining
the male population to do the clean up. That makes three million
people to move (and incinerate) about 16 corpses each.

Like a one or two day job maximum.

Who organises this?

Then you have to worry about food and that sort of thing.

With six million people you can just squeeze them together in say the
south east and there will be plenty enough to do the required jobs.

How?

You still worried about books?

The fictional disease imagined in this situation is one that is much
more deadly than Ebola, when this is a species killer. A kill rate
very close to 100%, where underground colonies would live on.

What colonies? And how do they get out again?

Or will
you be getting a riffle, shotgun and a bunch of ammo and raiding every
supermarket not already looted?

Six million can make their own food, where a few hundred have a lot of
supermarkets to choose from.

Assuming you have people who know how to farm, look after livestock and the
like.

Of course the packs of dogs will eat the sheep and fowl. We don't normally
allow cattle to mix so there won't be too much breeding there.

Most importantly is that these books will last long enough to allow
time for society to be restored. After that creating a disease will
become the worst crime possible and subject to instant execution.

How long do you suggest this will be?

Depends on how many died.

Six million would be back to full numbers within a couple of
generations with only a fairly modest breeding program.

Organised by whom?

Down to a few hundred (say 300), then it is a case of as many as you
can, as fast as you can. Quite a strict breeding program as well, when
you need to aim for suitable genetic dispersion.

Organised how?

I could get the popular numbers back up to full strength over nine
generations, where our females would have to start early and go on for
long.

You could? WHy should I follow your lead?

So in all it would take about 250 years, where each generation would
restore more and more of society.

The vast majority of books in places like libraries and stores will be
useless in a few years, probably less,

Three hundred years later and most would still be there.

Nope.

as the roof fails,

Due to what cause?

Age, decay, rot, the usual things that cause buildings to fall down if they
aren't looked after.

windows break,

All by themselves...

Yep.

mould sets in

Unlikely in a dry environment.

What dry environment?

and the natural acidity of the paper degrades them.

My books going back all the way over 300 years are just fine.

We've covered that. Old paper has a low acid content.

and (b) remember how to read.

It is called "patenting".

Sorry?

Surely eating,

No problem.

You've yet to explain how.

heat etc...

Come live in my house, no heat needed.

Plenty of wood out there as well, where my grand father was a
woodsman.

Is there?

will take priority.

In such a society people would have more time with their children than
what they do now. No taxes, community living, where most things are
right on hand from the old world.

There would also be school as well...

What school, who teaches?

Whats the point of reading, in fact, have you ever taught reading?

Not to mention, how do they access the vast body of information stored
digitally?

The computers will still be around, where people would have
electricity restored within days to power a few up.

A few days?

Just find an electric generator and some fuel.

And the computer does what exactly?

The internet doesn't exist anymore.

You don't think people will be a little more interested in feeding
themselves?

Very easy. Just go down your local shop, point at everything and go
mine, mine and yes I will have that as well.

So that sees you though the first winter, what then?

How do you intend to preserve things? Sugar and Salt are going to be
running pretty low, pretty quick.

You seem to have a very odd idea of how quickly things could fall apart
in a
modern society.

It takes generations to fall apart, where this is a battle within
these same generations to restore society. It would not be easy, but
it could be done with some knowledge being moped up later.

It takes days for a modern city to fall apart. Plenty of examples in the
news.

How do you propose restoring the power?

A portable electric generator.

Fuel?

Large scale electricity

We only need a small amount to start with.

Fuel?

needs a huge number of people.

I will remember to bring along a nuclear technician, where we may get
one of those plants running.

One?

Remember, you don't get to choose.

I suppose you could issolate a power station so the
sub stations didn't trip when you try to draw current,

Running the national grid would be difficult. I would isolate the
local region for maybe up to about 30 miles.

Do you know how to issolate a sub-station?

then you'd need a hydro station,

Not sure if we have one of those, but we do have some wind farms.

Any idea now to maintain one?

as, looking at the UK, you'll not have the resources to run a
coal fired

We have tons of coal, where they just shut down all the mines to cut
the CO2 emissions are per international agreement.

Where?

We also have coal based power stations, where now we import the coal.

or natural gas station.

No idea.

Thought not.

If you are thinking about small scale generators, where is the fuel going
to
come from?

Fuel will be found all over the place, when the old society used it
frequently.

Such as? The huge forests around the UK?

Oh... we don't have many any more.

You seem to think that each aspect of technology exists without
interdependancies.

Not at all, when a lot, including our power station, would soon run
out of resources.

You can always read the supplier list though...

Which tells you what?

Can you change a bearing?

On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 19:09:42 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .

There will be no extinction causing meteor strike any time soon.

Can't say that with any certainty at all.

My friend 'random odds' goes a long way. For one large strike each 10
million years, then you can work out your own odds of it happening
within the next year.

Funny how all my books have not rotted away...

Not at all. Leave them in your garden shed with an open door for a year.

As I said I am not an idiot...

Maybe I should get out my ZX Spectrum from my cold, dark loft, which
is not unlike this future world.

Tried using it recently?

A couple of years ago I powered it up and even loaded a couple of
things from tape, but it was too much of a pain in the behind to use
for long.

Crops would reproduce and spread, fruit would continue, where due to
it being a world of animals now, then meat is not a problem.

You are really that naive?

I know a fair deal about agriculture seeing that it is in family. Sure
things will go downhill greatly, but it would still go on.

Pests would be one of the biggest problems, but this usually causes
damage instead of completely destroying. Also there is the problem
with weeds and other unwelcome planets, which would also go to lower
production.

It could survive quite a few years like that, but things would be not
at all good in the long term. And that is why it would take some
farming to keep things how they should be.

and fuel,

All those petrol stations...

Do you know the leakage rate from a petrol storage facility?

One petrol company in this country was recently fined a large amount
for letting 10,000 gallons leak away, but the report also said that a
Tesco's station has virtually no leakage.

It is not common practice for these storage tanks to leak, when that
defeats the whole purpose of having them. Also for those that do leak,
then they may not leak at the bottom.

Why would windows be broken? This deadly disease instead of knocking
them flat causes a window breaking rage?

Glass breaks.

So does a metal bar if you put enough force on it, but each reaction
does require an action. And unless you wish to explain the new theory
on how sunlight breaks glass, then you have to say how millions of
windows will get broken.

Windows don't break themselves,

Sorry they do.

Argh, argh, argh I'm going to break. Shatter.

I don't think so...

Roofs leak too.

Modern roofs know how to stay in place in all except the most extreme
conditions.

So with sunlight coming though the windows, then the building will
have suitable heat even in cold weather.

Ever tried leaving your house without any heating all winter?

Only for a few weeks holiday.

Damp, isn't it...

No. If it was damp, then you would have to explain where the moisture
came from. Humans tend to create most moisture, opening and closing
doors, running taps, baths and showers.

Also closed doors between rooms greatly helps to stop cold and damp
spreading to other areas.

I have lived here for 17 years now, where never in all that time has
the roof once leaked.

Really? Lucky sod.

Roofs are like that around here. Even the big storm of '87 went right
overhead with no damage at all.

My old school leaked like sieve from the day it was built.

Obviously it was done in minimum budget and built by morons.

Such things require causes, where you have no causes.

Really they don't.

Magic won't do it, where acts of God are few and few between.

I have been storing paper goods in my garage for over a year now,
which is an environment much worse than an unoccupied house, where
even now they are just fine.

Good damp proof? Good maintenance?

Good structure.

Some information could be lost certainly, but most of it will sit
around until needed.

Sorry, you are dreaming.

Want me to unleash a human species killer virus so that we can test my
theory? No I thought not. ;-]

And I see that you are just so good in explaining how millions of
windows can break and millions of roofs leak.

Break into some house and take the scanner and printer.

And how do you maintain them?

Throw them away and get new ones to start with, but an ever enlarging
population can fill these needed jobs one by one.

Not unlike a university student would I guess, but you tend to learn
more things when you actually go and do it.

No, go on... do some research - tell me how you intend to manufacturer the
equipment.

The equipment already exists in labs around the world, where there is
no need to create what already exists.

And what part of physics says AI is impossible?

None, but it does say that it is not easy.

Never said it wasn't.

And I would doubt that they would even have it mastered by 2100.

Not so, when the best way to make an intelligent machine is to try and
copy our own intelligence.

Really? You a neural scientist?

No, but when making something new it is always best to first copy what
is available. Like the Chinese and Russian rockets.

There is a lot of knowledge to be had in copying other work.

BTW - how would like to define human?

If they ever do manage to create superior intelligence, then
understanding what humans are is the easy part.

In other words no.

Even the current dumb computers can recognise humans and even tell
their mood from facial expressions.

So that part has already been solved, more or less.

In the future with an intelligent machine you could just go "This is
Bob and he is a human". Over a short space of time this intelligent
machine can work out for itself what things are humans without having
to be told first.

Cardman.

On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 21:12:36 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 16:21:18 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

How do you propose to do this if you have no central heating

I do not use any central heating in my house beyond hot water. Double
glazing, cavity wall insulation, loft insulation, which makes things
hot enough already without making more heat,

You never use heating? TV's, computers, cookers etc...

Yes, we have those kinds of heating, much to my thermal regrets. We
also make lots of damp as well to balance things out.

All of which heat things.

And running water soon adjusts the score.

and food is far more important.

Thanks to agriculture most of our wilderness has been clearly away to
produce... wait for it.... FOOD!

You know how to grow food?

My family is more into the forestry side, but sure I know how to grow
food on both the small and large scales. And yes I have worked on
farms before in many areas.

Cats and Dogs would prove popular for an easy meat source. They eat
them in China after all.

Dogs - yes, do you want to think about the dogs for a while?

If it pleases you.

After all the humans are dead many of the pets will die due to
starvation and lack of care. A few will go on and find food sources,
which will more often than not be the recently deceased humans.

These dogs will then return to their wild nature by hunting in packs
to the regret of any animal who gets in their way. As that will
certainly involve our own people, then these hunting packs will need
to be exterminated.

There are books simply everywhere in society. Most people's houses,
the public library, collages and universities, the book shop and tons
more.

Yes, none of them are in good positions to survive.

I see no reason why not.

I expect not.

You explain not, because you cannot.

If it was an ebola style killer which is I believe around 90% fatal, we
have a more reasonable number: 6,000,000 left in the UK.

Hardly a social collapse.

Nope. But a likely collapse in technological society.

Not even close. Society is not dependant on population numbers, where
that can just speed the rate of advancement.

So if the global population dropped down to just 10%, then the only
thing that would really change is really cheap house prices.

If we say, look at a few tens of thousands it gets worse.

That it does, but you are still taking millions on the global level.

If the numbers shrink too much, then it would be best to group
everyone together to create a large population.

My father worked on a nuclear power station along with his brother.

So you know how to run one?

No, but I can always dig out some manuals and I am well aware of the
theory.

Then there's 50,000,000 bodies to deal with.

With six million people available that certainly will be done, with
less people they would just rot.

Really, and the consequences are...

Keeping our people below ground until all that is left is bones, when
you certainly won't want to catch this disease when you come out.

Come on, you're making this too easy for me.

With only a few hundred people available there is no option, other
then to let them naturally decompose.

Out in the open it would only take a few months before only bones are
left.

That'll make the hospitals and
cities pretty damn unpleasant for the survivors.

One of the early things to do would be to use about half of remaining
the male population to do the clean up. That makes three million
people to move (and incinerate) about 16 corpses each.

Like a one or two day job maximum.

Who organises this?

A natural born leader. With six million people available in the UK
they would even vote in a new prime minister.

Then you have to worry about food and that sort of thing.

With six million people you can just squeeze them together in say the
south east and there will be plenty enough to do the required jobs.

How?

Authority, military, policing and most of all good logic.

You still worried about books?

The fictional disease imagined in this situation is one that is much
more deadly than Ebola, when this is a species killer. A kill rate
very close to 100%, where underground colonies would live on.

What colonies?

If a disease did sweep through this planet with a seemingly 100% kill
rate, then apart from all air travel being banned, then a county that
is infected would make use of their large underground facilities to
allow hundreds or even thousands of people to live through it.

And how do they get out again?

You do ask some silly questions. They would monitor world
communication and slowly see it stop, where after a couple of years
they would consider it safe to *open the door* and venture out.

Six million can make their own food, where a few hundred have a lot of
supermarkets to choose from.

Assuming you have people who know how to farm,

Farming does not rank that high on the list of complex jobs, when
people have been doing it for thousands of years. Sure modern farming
is vastly different, but that can be dealt with.

look after livestock and the like.

Livestock would not work out too well after all the farmers are dead,
when they are fenced or caged and quite dependant on humans.

Those that do survive on will be hunted down by our packs of wild
dogs.

Of course the packs of dogs will eat the sheep and fowl.

Now you have it, where I was wondering if you would follow this chain
of thought.

We don't normally
allow cattle to mix so there won't be too much breeding there.

When they grow hungry they could try to escape, when if they escape,
then so could they meet up and breed. And you may know what a bull is
like when he gets in with the cows.

Depends on how many died.

Six million would be back to full numbers within a couple of
generations with only a fairly modest breeding program.

Organised by whom?

It is part of human nature to organize and elect leaders.

Down to a few hundred (say 300), then it is a case of as many as you
can, as fast as you can. Quite a strict breeding program as well, when
you need to aim for suitable genetic dispersion.

Organised how?

Thoughts of an old fashioned Roman orgy come to mind, but thankfully
people are intelligent and can see logic in restoring the human race
and society.

I could get the popular numbers back up to full strength over nine
generations, where our females would have to start early and go on for
long.

You could? WHy should I follow your lead?

Would you not want to see society continue after such a major
disaster? Current social reproduction rates are simply no good here,
when following them could well lead to extinction.

as the roof fails,

Due to what cause?

Age, decay, rot, the usual things that cause buildings to fall down if they
aren't looked after.

Only if they are already damaged, when rot won't occur on its own. As
even the timer used is treated to prevent rot.

The main tiles certainly won't decay, where I cannot see the rain
proof underlay doing that either.

windows break,

All by themselves...

Yep.

So as anyone here seen a window break all on its own? As I cannot say
that I ever have.

My books going back all the way over 300 years are just fine.

We've covered that. Old paper has a low acid content.

And what about all the ones in between?

Surely eating,

No problem.

You've yet to explain how.

Supermarkets and later farming.

Plenty of wood out there as well, where my grand father was a
woodsman.

Is there?

Yes simply loads of it, in our local renewal forests.

I can make you fences and with a saw (ideally a chain saw) I can get
you as many logs as you need in no time.

My grandfather was a woodsman after all, where I spent countless days
working in the forests.

There would also be school as well...

What school,

Pick a building.

who teaches?

Mostly anyone with the skill in the required subject area. I would
prefer older people I guess, when they are more wise and the younger
people are better at hard labour.

Whats the point of reading,

Another dumb question...

in fact, have you ever taught reading?

Yes I have. I did it as work experience in my final year at school,
when I helped out a school just across the road from me, where helping
with their reading was one of the things that I did.

From my own younger brother's early education I am also aware about
more basic reading and writing.

Just find an electric generator and some fuel.

And the computer does what exactly?

Resource allocation and monitoring. The odd game and seeing what porn
is on the hard drive.

The internet doesn't exist anymore.

Obviously, which is an odd notion.

Very easy. Just go down your local shop, point at everything and go
mine, mine and yes I will have that as well.

So that sees you though the first winter, what then?

Then we are into farming, where we may even get lucky and find some
livestock still around. Fishing would also be an option if we was near
the coast.

How do you intend to preserve things?

Depends on what is needing to be preserved. Jars, tins and even a few
refrigerators and freezers.

Sugar and Salt are going to be running pretty low, pretty quick.

Sugar would be much worse off than salt, seeing that this usually
comes in packets and not containers. And not many animals around would
miss a chance at getting some sugar.

In the longer term we would have to use natural sweeteners instead of
sugar, which could well be a good thing.

It takes generations to fall apart, where this is a battle within
these same generations to restore society. It would not be easy, but
it could be done with some knowledge being moped up later.

It takes days for a modern city to fall apart. Plenty of examples in the
news.

That is just a people thing, where this situation has no people. As a
result nothing moves or works without our help.

A portable electric generator.

Fuel?

Just down the road.

We only need a small amount to start with.

Fuel?

Fuel will only pose a problem when we have a much larger population
and not yet the means to produce our own.

needs a huge number of people.

I will remember to bring along a nuclear technician, where we may get
one of those plants running.

One?

Unless there are two together.

Remember, you don't get to choose.

Someone has to choose.

I suppose you could issolate a power station so the
sub stations didn't trip when you try to draw current,

Running the national grid would be difficult. I would isolate the
local region for maybe up to about 30 miles.

Do you know how to issolate a sub-station?

No wires in or out would isolate it. :-]

We have tons of coal, where they just shut down all the mines to cut
the CO2 emissions are per international agreement.

Where?

The North-East of England has a lot of coal, where a very few mines
are still operational.

Fuel will be found all over the place, when the old society used it
frequently.

Such as?

Petrol and diesel.

The huge forests around the UK?

Trucks do not run well on logs.

Oh... we don't have many any more.

One day far in the future, when it is time to start making our own
once more.

You seem to think that each aspect of technology exists without
interdependancies.

Not at all, when a lot, including our power station, would soon run
out of resources.

You can always read the supplier list though...

Which tells you what?

Where the replacement to your broken part is to be found.

Can you change a bearing?

If the bearing needs to be changed, then it will be charged. Not
personally my type of work though.

Cardman.