Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 16:04:29 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 08:12:22 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

You don't understand probability then.

You should read the science data then, when they can indeed count how
uncommon they are.

Really? All the data suggests they are all too common.

Small ones are fairly common, but big ones take millions of years to
come around. Even then not even one single dinosaur species was wiped
out even hundreds of years after their big one.

Hint: You need to understand how individual risk assessments are
actually
made, not how you think they are made.

There will be no extinction causing meteor strike any time soon.

Can't say that with any certainty at all.

Diseases do not destroy books, computers, file data and tons of
equipment. So it is all there to read when they pick it up.

Books rot perfectly well all by themselves.

Funny how all my books have not rotted away...

Not at all. Leave them in your garden shed with an open door for a year.

Computers need quite an extra ordinary support structure to keep
functioning.

The metal in computers lasts even longer than books, where most
computers these days become obsolete instead of breaking.

Maybe I should get out my ZX Spectrum from my cold, dark loft, which
is not unlike this future world.

Tried using it recently?

Given that most people will be worried about mundane things like food

Food is hardly a problem to start with, when shops contain long
lasting canned goods. Spam I hear can even last indefinitely.

Crops would reproduce and spread, fruit would continue, where due to
it being a world of animals now, then meat is not a problem.

You are really that naive?

and fuel,

All those petrol stations...

Do you know the leakage rate from a petrol storage facility?

looking after books and keeping computers working will be quite a long
way down that list.

They can just sit there until someone wants them.

Nope.

Know what a book is?

Yes, I also know quite a lot about the dymanics of acid cleaned paper.

Here's an experiment for you. Take a pile of books and put them in a
building for a few years with no maintenance, probably broken windows

Why would windows be broken? This deadly disease instead of knocking
them flat causes a window breaking rage?

Glass breaks.

Windows don't break themselves,

Sorry they do. Roofs leak too.

where these days windows are often
made from toughened, if not shatterproof, glass.

There is simply no way that millions of buildings would all have
broken windows.

So with sunlight coming though the windows, then the building will
have suitable heat even in cold weather.

Ever tried leaving your house without any heating all winter?

Damp, isn't it...

and a leaking roof,

I have lived here for 17 years now, where never in all that time has
the roof once leaked.

Really? Lucky sod.

My old school leaked like sieve from the day it was built.

Such things require causes, where you have no causes.

Really they don't.

then come back and try to read them.

Why not dump them outside...

I have been storing paper goods in my garage for over a year now,
which is an environment much worse than an unoccupied house, where
even now they are just fine.

Good damp proof? Good maintenance?

Historically knowledge has either been lost,

Word of mouth kind of knowledge, which is due to not finding a
suitable application.

Got a copy of Plato's discourse on the nature of humour?

or you've had people like monks responsible for re-writing the
information and thus saving it.

And now using the newly gained knowledge of books and printing.

Can you run a lithograph?

Given the
kind of scenarios that we are talking about, this is unlikely to be an
option because of the shear volume of data

Some information could be lost certainly, but most of it will sit
around until needed.

Sorry, you are dreaming.

and the type of printing.

Break into some house and take the scanner and printer.

And how do you maintain them?

Secondly, I am interested in how you would, for example, from a book,
work
out how to make a viable anti-biotic.

Not unlike a university student would I guess, but you tend to learn
more things when you actually go and do it.

No, go on... do some research - tell me how you intend to manufacturer the
equipment.

There was lots of science fiction around about landing on the Moon and
even a few movies before it happened. And basic physics said it was
possible long before it occurred.

And what part of physics says AI is impossible?

None, but it does say that it is not easy.

Never said it wasn't.

Intelligent machines are a different question, when we are still not
sure how our own intelligence works.

You related to John Ordover?

All us *humans*...

He was saying the same thing. While we do not know, its quite irrelevent
to
the topic of AI,

Not so, when the best way to make an intelligent machine is to try and
copy our own intelligence.

Really? You a neural scientist?

or for that matter other methods of E-I (Enhanced
Intelligence) where we do have some very good ideas.

Then I will look forwards to the results.

We also have another 20 years before we get the necessary hardware which,
based on historical developments, is plenty of time.

The hardware is the easier of the two parts.

That these intelligent machines will be created by humans. Where a
rule like "do not kill humans" would be a good start.

Then you won't mind telling me how you can code such a rule...

function actioncheck (action)
{
if (action==killhuman)
alternateplan();
}

BTW - how would like to define human?

If they ever do manage to create superior intelligence, then
understanding what humans are is the easy part.

In other words no.

On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 19:09:42 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .

There will be no extinction causing meteor strike any time soon.

Can't say that with any certainty at all.

My friend 'random odds' goes a long way. For one large strike each 10
million years, then you can work out your own odds of it happening
within the next year.

Funny how all my books have not rotted away...

Not at all. Leave them in your garden shed with an open door for a year.

As I said I am not an idiot...

Maybe I should get out my ZX Spectrum from my cold, dark loft, which
is not unlike this future world.

Tried using it recently?

A couple of years ago I powered it up and even loaded a couple of
things from tape, but it was too much of a pain in the behind to use
for long.

Crops would reproduce and spread, fruit would continue, where due to
it being a world of animals now, then meat is not a problem.

You are really that naive?

I know a fair deal about agriculture seeing that it is in family. Sure
things will go downhill greatly, but it would still go on.

Pests would be one of the biggest problems, but this usually causes
damage instead of completely destroying. Also there is the problem
with weeds and other unwelcome planets, which would also go to lower
production.

It could survive quite a few years like that, but things would be not
at all good in the long term. And that is why it would take some
farming to keep things how they should be.

and fuel,

All those petrol stations...

Do you know the leakage rate from a petrol storage facility?

One petrol company in this country was recently fined a large amount
for letting 10,000 gallons leak away, but the report also said that a
Tesco's station has virtually no leakage.

It is not common practice for these storage tanks to leak, when that
defeats the whole purpose of having them. Also for those that do leak,
then they may not leak at the bottom.

Why would windows be broken? This deadly disease instead of knocking
them flat causes a window breaking rage?

Glass breaks.

So does a metal bar if you put enough force on it, but each reaction
does require an action. And unless you wish to explain the new theory
on how sunlight breaks glass, then you have to say how millions of
windows will get broken.

Windows don't break themselves,

Sorry they do.

Argh, argh, argh I'm going to break. Shatter.

I don't think so...

Roofs leak too.

Modern roofs know how to stay in place in all except the most extreme
conditions.

So with sunlight coming though the windows, then the building will
have suitable heat even in cold weather.

Ever tried leaving your house without any heating all winter?

Only for a few weeks holiday.

Damp, isn't it...

No. If it was damp, then you would have to explain where the moisture
came from. Humans tend to create most moisture, opening and closing
doors, running taps, baths and showers.

Also closed doors between rooms greatly helps to stop cold and damp
spreading to other areas.

I have lived here for 17 years now, where never in all that time has
the roof once leaked.

Really? Lucky sod.

Roofs are like that around here. Even the big storm of '87 went right
overhead with no damage at all.

My old school leaked like sieve from the day it was built.

Obviously it was done in minimum budget and built by morons.

Such things require causes, where you have no causes.

Really they don't.

Magic won't do it, where acts of God are few and few between.

I have been storing paper goods in my garage for over a year now,
which is an environment much worse than an unoccupied house, where
even now they are just fine.

Good damp proof? Good maintenance?

Good structure.

Some information could be lost certainly, but most of it will sit
around until needed.

Sorry, you are dreaming.

Want me to unleash a human species killer virus so that we can test my
theory? No I thought not. ;-]

And I see that you are just so good in explaining how millions of
windows can break and millions of roofs leak.

Break into some house and take the scanner and printer.

And how do you maintain them?

Throw them away and get new ones to start with, but an ever enlarging
population can fill these needed jobs one by one.

Not unlike a university student would I guess, but you tend to learn
more things when you actually go and do it.

No, go on... do some research - tell me how you intend to manufacturer the
equipment.

The equipment already exists in labs around the world, where there is
no need to create what already exists.

And what part of physics says AI is impossible?

None, but it does say that it is not easy.

Never said it wasn't.

And I would doubt that they would even have it mastered by 2100.

Not so, when the best way to make an intelligent machine is to try and
copy our own intelligence.

Really? You a neural scientist?

No, but when making something new it is always best to first copy what
is available. Like the Chinese and Russian rockets.

There is a lot of knowledge to be had in copying other work.

BTW - how would like to define human?

If they ever do manage to create superior intelligence, then
understanding what humans are is the easy part.

In other words no.

Even the current dumb computers can recognise humans and even tell
their mood from facial expressions.

So that part has already been solved, more or less.

In the future with an intelligent machine you could just go "This is
Bob and he is a human". Over a short space of time this intelligent
machine can work out for itself what things are humans without having
to be told first.

Cardman.

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 19:09:42 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .

There will be no extinction causing meteor strike any time soon.

Can't say that with any certainty at all.

My friend 'random odds' goes a long way. For one large strike each 10
million years, then you can work out your own odds of it happening
within the next year.

I suggest you do. Particularly the odds on it affecting you.

Funny how all my books have not rotted away...

Not at all. Leave them in your garden shed with an open door for a year.

As I said I am not an idiot...

All of which is irrelvent to the scenario's we're discussing.

Maybe I should get out my ZX Spectrum from my cold, dark loft, which
is not unlike this future world.

Tried using it recently?

A couple of years ago I powered it up and even loaded a couple of
things from tape, but it was too much of a pain in the behind to use
for long.

Mine doesn't work anymore, the UHF converter failed years ago and replacing
it is pointless.

Crops would reproduce and spread, fruit would continue, where due to
it being a world of animals now, then meat is not a problem.

You are really that naive?

I know a fair deal about agriculture seeing that it is in family. Sure
things will go downhill greatly, but it would still go on.

Pests would be one of the biggest problems, but this usually causes
damage instead of completely destroying. Also there is the problem
with weeds and other unwelcome planets, which would also go to lower
production.

It could survive quite a few years like that, but things would be not
at all good in the long term. And that is why it would take some
farming to keep things how they should be.

Farmed without machines recently?

and fuel,

All those petrol stations...

Do you know the leakage rate from a petrol storage facility?

One petrol company in this country was recently fined a large amount
for letting 10,000 gallons leak away, but the report also said that a
Tesco's station has virtually no leakage.

It is not common practice for these storage tanks to leak, when that
defeats the whole purpose of having them. Also for those that do leak,
then they may not leak at the bottom.

Indeed they do not. Plus it would be a pretty precious resource - once gone
there would be no more.

Why would windows be broken? This deadly disease instead of knocking
them flat causes a window breaking rage?

Glass breaks.

So does a metal bar if you put enough force on it, but each reaction
does require an action. And unless you wish to explain the new theory
on how sunlight breaks glass, then you have to say how millions of
windows will get broken.

I suggest you read a book on the dynamic properties of glass.

Windows don't break themselves,

Sorry they do.

Argh, argh, argh I'm going to break. Shatter.

I don't think so...

shrug What you believe isn't my problem. Glass is essentially a
superviscous liquid, over time it grows weak and often breaks.

Roofs leak too.

Modern roofs know how to stay in place in all except the most extreme
conditions.

Actually, modern roofs are pretty grim, especially in modern buildings.

So with sunlight coming though the windows, then the building will
have suitable heat even in cold weather.

Ever tried leaving your house without any heating all winter?

Only for a few weeks holiday.

So you haven't.

Damp, isn't it...

No. If it was damp, then you would have to explain where the moisture
came from. Humans tend to create most moisture, opening and closing
doors, running taps, baths and showers.

Also closed doors between rooms greatly helps to stop cold and damp
spreading to other areas.

So you haven't tried it, don't worry about it.

I have lived here for 17 years now, where never in all that time has
the roof once leaked.

Really? Lucky sod.

Roofs are like that around here. Even the big storm of '87 went right
overhead with no damage at all.

I take it you also occasinally check it? Clear the gutters and so forth?

My old school leaked like sieve from the day it was built.

Obviously it was done in minimum budget and built by morons.

No, just a modern contractor who built a flat roof like most modern
buildings. Water tends to pool and every few years the lining must be
changed.

Such things require causes, where you have no causes.

Really they don't.

Magic won't do it, where acts of God are few and few between.

It doesn't need magic. Honestly, you seem to know very little about things
you pronounce on.

I have been storing paper goods in my garage for over a year now,
which is an environment much worse than an unoccupied house, where
even now they are just fine.

Good damp proof? Good maintenance?

Good structure.

Then I'll assume its not a modern building, like, for example, most
university libraries.

Some information could be lost certainly, but most of it will sit
around until needed.

Sorry, you are dreaming.

Want me to unleash a human species killer virus so that we can test my
theory? No I thought not. ;-]

And I see that you are just so good in explaining how millions of
windows can break and millions of roofs leak.

shrug

You seem to think your house is representative of construction techniques
through the UK, its hard to deal with that conceit.

Break into some house and take the scanner and printer.

And how do you maintain them?

Throw them away and get new ones to start with, but an ever enlarging
population can fill these needed jobs one by one.

What jobs? How do you propose to build them?

Where are you getting your raw materials for plastics, silicon chips and so
forth?

Not unlike a university student would I guess, but you tend to learn
more things when you actually go and do it.

No, go on... do some research - tell me how you intend to manufacturer
the
equipment.

The equipment already exists in labs around the world, where there is
no need to create what already exists.

And you believe this stuff lasts forever.

Take making anti-biotics, you need a pretty serious temperature controlled
environment, how do you propose to repair or replace thermostats?

And what part of physics says AI is impossible?

None, but it does say that it is not easy.

Never said it wasn't.

And I would doubt that they would even have it mastered by 2100.

You have any basis for this? No, thought not.

Not so, when the best way to make an intelligent machine is to try and
copy our own intelligence.

Really? You a neural scientist?

No,

So what makes you such an expert on this?

but when making something new it is always best to first copy what
is available. Like the Chinese and Russian rockets.

There is a lot of knowledge to be had in copying other work.

BTW - how would like to define human?

If they ever do manage to create superior intelligence, then
understanding what humans are is the easy part.

In other words no.

Even the current dumb computers can recognise humans and even tell
their mood from facial expressions.


So that part has already been solved, more or less.

Er... not really...

In the future with an intelligent machine you could just go "This is
Bob and he is a human". Over a short space of time this intelligent
machine can work out for itself what things are humans without having
to be told first.

And what if they decide to change their programme?

"Paul Blay" wrote in message
...
"Dave" wrote ...

"Cardman" wrote in message
On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 19:09:42 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message

Windows don't break themselves,

Sorry they do.

Argh, argh, argh I'm going to break. Shatter.

I don't think so...

shrug What you believe isn't my problem. Glass is essentially a
superviscous liquid,

Wrong-wrong-wrongity-wrong
http://www.cabletoday.com/ct2/archives/0199/ct0199g.asp

Hmm... looks like Dr Norman was wrong.

But, looking at a few other sites the question of the longevity of glass in
normal conditions is still open.

Cardman writes:
Humans have been around for millions of years already,

"Manfred Bartz"
IIRC, homo sapiens has been around for approx 130000 years.

That seems to be correct, Manfred. Much of that time was spent in Africa.
According to recent DNA research the first humans left Africa around 100,000
years ago. The DNA research is rather conclusive in some respects, due mostly
to some of the inherent qualities of the molecule.

The Y (male) chromosome allows for the tracing of what we might call the tribal
lineage. Since a male inherits the Y chromosome whole and intact from the
father, any mutations in one generation are passed on to all subsequent
generations without change. It is therefor possible to trace a mutation in a
population as far back as the point of origin, or to put it another way, it is
possible to trace an original group to determine the scope of its migration.
The practical result is that it is now possible to determine that there were
about five small groups of emmigrants from Africa that proliferated into the
known world. One went to Europe, one to Central Asia, one to Siberia and on to
North America, and so on.

On another related topic, anthropologists have argued back and forth whether
Neanderthal man became extinct or was absorbed and bred with Homo Sapiens.
According to recent findings, it is now believed that Neanderthal and HS did not
breed and that Neanderthal man became extinct. This is remarkeable to me
because Neanderthal man could make tools, used fire, and probably had
rudimentary language. On the minus side, Neanderthal did not have a high IQ.
Tough toenails.

"Cardman"
Just imagine us huddling around the dying warmth of a Star, which just
happens to be the very last Star to burn in the Universe.

Just imagine that the life span of an average star is far greater than the
length of time that would transform any biological entity through evolution into
something unrecognizable.

Whatever is huddling around the last star won't be us.

And they won't need an external power source, if they're intelligent.