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Commercial Crew Flight by 2015?
I was watching NASA TV and caught part of Congressional Committee
discussing/grilling Administrator / General(?) Bolden on the Obama space plan and he stated that he expected the first Commercial Crewed Flight to occur by 2015. How likely is this to happen? I checked the Space X site, since they are the only ones who are designing a return craft that is being designed for Crewed flight( Heck Orbital is only designing a craft to deliver cargo to the station only! http://www.orbital.com/CargoResupplyServices/) and found this http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php. Which looks like they are 'planning' at least 11 resupply flights by 2015. Not clear if the the last ones would be crewed or not. So how likely is this to happen? Just my $0.02 Keith W of St Louis, AKA Space Cadet Not Racist Not Violent Just No Longer Silent |
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Commercial Crew Flight by 2015?
On 05/13/2010 11:15 AM, Space Cadet wrote:
I was watching NASA TV and caught part of Congressional Committee discussing/grilling Administrator / General(?) Bolden on the Obama space plan and he stated that he expected the first Commercial Crewed Flight to occur by 2015. How likely is this to happen? I checked the Space X site, since they are the only ones who are designing a return craft that is being designed for Crewed flight( Heck Orbital is only designing a craft to deliver cargo to the station only! http://www.orbital.com/CargoResupplyServices/) and found this http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php. Which looks like they are 'planning' at least 11 resupply flights by 2015. Not clear if the the last ones would be crewed or not. None of the 11 resupply flights currently planned will be crewed. So how likely is this to happen? No one knows; anyone who claims they do is BSing. |
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Commercial Crew Flight by 2015?
On Thu, 13 May 2010 09:15:34 -0700 (PDT), Space Cadet
wrote: Which looks like they are 'planning' at least 11 resupply flights by 2015. Not clear if the the last ones would be crewed or not. Nope. So how likely is this to happen? General concensus is "pretty good chance". There seems to be little doubt that SpaceX could have a crewed Dragon in five years, although it might still be in the test phase. (They claim three years from go-ahead. Add 2 years for "oopsies" like the Falcon 1 Follies.) Lockheed-Martin should be able to get an Atlas-launched Orion ready by then, most of the trials and tribulations of Orion were due to Ares I's ever dwindling performance envelope and annoying desire to shake its payloads to death. This assumes the money to do either or both shows up. Right now, Congress is screaming bloody murder at the very suggestion of it. Brian |
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