which is more likely?(uncertain)

Stan Brown wrote:

In article in
alt.sci.math.probability, matthewwinston wrote:


Someone predicts using bible codes:
1.An asteroid impacts, devestating the earth.
2.Planet X flys by and scorches the earth.
Then it happens. (one or the other first).

any equations welcome.

I am not well versed in the laws of uncertainty but I bet Stephen
Hawking would have fun with this.



No, he'd probably heave a weary sigh. Those so-called "bible codes"
are bunk. If you have sufficiently long text, you can find _any_
message you like in it if you try enough patterns. First letter of
every chapter doesn't work? Try second letter of every chapter. Try
first letter of chapter 1, third letter of chapter 2, fifth letter
of chapter 3, and so on.

and calculations have been made on codes, including moby dick.
I've read all the debunks already.



http://www.math.temple.edu/~paulos/bibcodes.html

thanks for the link
pasting for reference only:
(If, for example, in any given position the probability of a b is .014,
the probability of an i is .065, and the probability of an l is .011,
then the probability that the four letters in "Bill" appear in any four
given positions is simply .014 x . 065 x .011 x .011.) Thus the product
of ten small numbers - let's call it P - is a truly infinitesimal
probability.


Your bible is a LOT longer, so there's a lot more scope for
sequences of letters that you can misinterpret as messages.

right but there is a finite number in there whatever it might be.
say using a skip code 1-99,999 or whatever the computer can do

there can only be so many skip codes for PlanetX, considering it is
seven letters and the bible has a finite word/letter count.

theres a task !
how many letters are in the KJV bible.
thats the one I will use

say the computer kicks out two or three answers planet X
uhm, ELS code is what its called, i'll have to find the formula.

http://www.biblecode.com/theomatics/els.html

then there is a formula for "when" it will happen. some infinite
possibility formula

then the possibility of an asteroid crashing, ive seen people
calculating this on several websites but I dont think I could.


In so far as your question has any semantic content, it is "Which is
more likely, for an asteroid to crash into the earth or a planet to
come near enough to cause major damage?"

right which would be more probable to happen "first".


Historically, major asteroids have hit the earth about every 60
million years or so, and therefore a first approximation to the
asteroid probability is 1/60,000,000 in any given year. I have no
idea of the probability of your other event, but I rather suspect
it's considerably lower.

anyway, i'm not trying to prove ELS codes are real or not, I'm trying to
find out which would be more likely to happen first.

I'll use the 1/60M for the asteroid.

ive read that planet X is supposed to come around something like every
7000 years, still no sign of it.


so if it did exist or is there some astronomic calculation to find the
possibility of a bright red firey planet to come swinging by earth? say
something like a brown dwarf maybe?

i'll crosspost to alt astronomy

The language the bible was originally written in was very crude, with a
single word represented by a single symbol. There was much overloading
of the meanings of the symbols, so one symbol might mean asteroid,
concorde, nuclear power station, osama bin laden or mother-in-law
depending on context.

A frequency diagram of the various sized particles in the universe would
be a help - are there more large-asteroid-sized bodies than planets? If
so (which is likely to be the case currently and for quite a long time
in the future) then the asteroid impact is more likely.

Nigel

matthewwinston wrote:


Stan Brown wrote:

In article in
alt.sci.math.probability, matthewwinston wrote:


Someone predicts using bible codes:
1.An asteroid impacts, devestating the earth.
2.Planet X flys by and scorches the earth.
Then it happens. (one or the other first).

any equations welcome.

I am not well versed in the laws of uncertainty but I bet Stephen
Hawking would have fun with this.



No, he'd probably heave a weary sigh. Those so-called "bible codes"
are bunk. If you have sufficiently long text, you can find _any_
message you like in it if you try enough patterns. First letter of
every chapter doesn't work? Try second letter of every chapter. Try
first letter of chapter 1, third letter of chapter 2, fifth letter of
chapter 3, and so on.

and calculations have been made on codes, including moby dick.
I've read all the debunks already.



http://www.math.temple.edu/~paulos/bibcodes.html

thanks for the link
pasting for reference only:
(If, for example, in any given position the probability of a b is .014,
the probability of an i is .065, and the probability of an l is .011,
then the probability that the four letters in "Bill" appear in any four
given positions is simply .014 x . 065 x .011 x .011.) Thus the product
of ten small numbers - let's call it P - is a truly infinitesimal
probability.


Your bible is a LOT longer, so there's a lot more scope for sequences
of letters that you can misinterpret as messages.

right but there is a finite number in there whatever it might be.
say using a skip code 1-99,999 or whatever the computer can do

there can only be so many skip codes for PlanetX, considering it is
seven letters and the bible has a finite word/letter count.

theres a task !
how many letters are in the KJV bible.
thats the one I will use

say the computer kicks out two or three answers planet X
uhm, ELS code is what its called, i'll have to find the formula.

http://www.biblecode.com/theomatics/els.html

then there is a formula for "when" it will happen. some infinite
possibility formula

then the possibility of an asteroid crashing, ive seen people
calculating this on several websites but I dont think I could.


In so far as your question has any semantic content, it is "Which is
more likely, for an asteroid to crash into the earth or a planet to
come near enough to cause major damage?"

right which would be more probable to happen "first".


Historically, major asteroids have hit the earth about every 60
million years or so, and therefore a first approximation to the
asteroid probability is 1/60,000,000 in any given year. I have no idea
of the probability of your other event, but I rather suspect it's
considerably lower.

anyway, i'm not trying to prove ELS codes are real or not, I'm trying to
find out which would be more likely to happen first.

I'll use the 1/60M for the asteroid.

ive read that planet X is supposed to come around something like every
7000 years, still no sign of it.


so if it did exist or is there some astronomic calculation to find the
possibility of a bright red firey planet to come swinging by earth? say
something like a brown dwarf maybe?

i'll crosspost to alt astronomy

The language the bible was originally written in was very crude, with a
single word represented by a single symbol. There was much overloading
of the meanings of the symbols, so one symbol might mean asteroid,
concorde, nuclear power station, osama bin laden or mother-in-law
depending on context.

A frequency diagram of the various sized particles in the universe would
be a help - are there more large-asteroid-sized bodies than planets? If
so (which is likely to be the case currently and for quite a long time
in the future) then the asteroid impact is more likely.

Nigel

matthewwinston wrote:


Stan Brown wrote:

In article in
alt.sci.math.probability, matthewwinston wrote:


Someone predicts using bible codes:
1.An asteroid impacts, devestating the earth.
2.Planet X flys by and scorches the earth.
Then it happens. (one or the other first).

any equations welcome.

I am not well versed in the laws of uncertainty but I bet Stephen
Hawking would have fun with this.



No, he'd probably heave a weary sigh. Those so-called "bible codes"
are bunk. If you have sufficiently long text, you can find _any_
message you like in it if you try enough patterns. First letter of
every chapter doesn't work? Try second letter of every chapter. Try
first letter of chapter 1, third letter of chapter 2, fifth letter of
chapter 3, and so on.

and calculations have been made on codes, including moby dick.
I've read all the debunks already.



http://www.math.temple.edu/~paulos/bibcodes.html

thanks for the link
pasting for reference only:
(If, for example, in any given position the probability of a b is .014,
the probability of an i is .065, and the probability of an l is .011,
then the probability that the four letters in "Bill" appear in any four
given positions is simply .014 x . 065 x .011 x .011.) Thus the product
of ten small numbers - let's call it P - is a truly infinitesimal
probability.


Your bible is a LOT longer, so there's a lot more scope for sequences
of letters that you can misinterpret as messages.

right but there is a finite number in there whatever it might be.
say using a skip code 1-99,999 or whatever the computer can do

there can only be so many skip codes for PlanetX, considering it is
seven letters and the bible has a finite word/letter count.

theres a task !
how many letters are in the KJV bible.
thats the one I will use

say the computer kicks out two or three answers planet X
uhm, ELS code is what its called, i'll have to find the formula.

http://www.biblecode.com/theomatics/els.html

then there is a formula for "when" it will happen. some infinite
possibility formula

then the possibility of an asteroid crashing, ive seen people
calculating this on several websites but I dont think I could.


In so far as your question has any semantic content, it is "Which is
more likely, for an asteroid to crash into the earth or a planet to
come near enough to cause major damage?"

right which would be more probable to happen "first".


Historically, major asteroids have hit the earth about every 60
million years or so, and therefore a first approximation to the
asteroid probability is 1/60,000,000 in any given year. I have no idea
of the probability of your other event, but I rather suspect it's
considerably lower.

anyway, i'm not trying to prove ELS codes are real or not, I'm trying to
find out which would be more likely to happen first.

I'll use the 1/60M for the asteroid.

ive read that planet X is supposed to come around something like every
7000 years, still no sign of it.


so if it did exist or is there some astronomic calculation to find the
possibility of a bright red firey planet to come swinging by earth? say
something like a brown dwarf maybe?

i'll crosspost to alt astronomy

In article in
alt.sci.math.probability, Nigel wrote:
are there more large-asteroid-sized bodies than planets? If
so (which is likely to be the case currently and for quite a long time
in the future)

When would it ever not be true? Aren't planets expected to (a)
gradually move closer to their stars until tidal strains break them
up or (b) get engulfed and vaporized as their stars expand to red
giants?

I could be wrong, and if so would welcome a correction.

--
Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
http://OakRoadSystems.com
Address munging may or may not reduce the spam you get; it surely
reduces the number of useful answers you get.
http://www.cs.tut.fi/~jkorpela/usenet/laws.html

In article in
alt.sci.math.probability, Nigel wrote:
are there more large-asteroid-sized bodies than planets? If
so (which is likely to be the case currently and for quite a long time
in the future)

When would it ever not be true? Aren't planets expected to (a)
gradually move closer to their stars until tidal strains break them
up or (b) get engulfed and vaporized as their stars expand to red
giants?

I could be wrong, and if so would welcome a correction.

--
Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
http://OakRoadSystems.com
Address munging may or may not reduce the spam you get; it surely
reduces the number of useful answers you get.
http://www.cs.tut.fi/~jkorpela/usenet/laws.html