NASA Research to Help Aircraft Aviod Ocean Storms, Turbulence

July 7, 2009

Steve Cole
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-0918


David Hosansky
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo.
303-497-8611


RELEASE: 09-154

NASA RESEARCH TO HELP AIRCRAFT AVIOD OCEAN STORMS, TURBULENCE

WASHINGTON -- NASA is funding the development of a prototype system
to
provide aircraft with updates about severe storms and turbulence as
they fly across remote ocean regions.

Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in
Boulder, Colo., in partnership with colleagues at the University of
Wisconsin, are developing a system that combines satellite data and
computer weather models with cutting-edge artificial intelligence
techniques. The goal is to identify and predict rapidly evolving
storms and other potential areas of turbulence.

"Turbulence is the leading cause of injuries in commercial aviation,"
said John Haynes, program manager in the Earth Science Division's
Applied Sciences Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "This
new work to detect the likelihood of turbulence associated with
oceanic storms using key space-based indicators is of crucial
importance to pilots."

The system is designed to help guide pilots away from intense
weather.
A variety of NASA spacecraft observations are being used in the
project, including data from NASA's Terra, Aqua, Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission, CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites.

The prototype system will identify areas of turbulence in clear
regions of the atmosphere as well as within storms. It is on track
for testing next year. Pilots on selected transoceanic routes will
receive real-time turbulence updates and provide feedback. When the
system is finalized, it will provide pilots and ground-based
controllers with text-based maps and graphical displays showing
regions of likely turbulence and storms.

"Pilots currently have little weather information as they fly over
remote stretches of the ocean, which is where some of the worst
turbulence occurs," said scientist John Williams, one of the project
leads at NCAR. "Providing pilots with at least an approximate picture
of developing storms could help guide them safely around areas of
potentially severe turbulence."

NCAR currently provides real-time maps of turbulence at various
altitudes over the continental United States. Williams and his
colleagues are building on this expertise to identify turbulence over
oceans. The team has created global maps of clear air turbulence
based on global computer weather models that include winds and other
instabilities in the atmosphere. Drawing on satellite images of
storms, the scientists also have created global views of the tops of
storm clouds. Higher cloud tops often are associated with more
intense storms, although not necessarily with turbulence.

The next step is to pinpoint areas of possible turbulence within and
around intense storms. The team will study correlations between
storms and turbulence over the continental United States, where
weather is closely observed, and then infer patterns of turbulence
for storms over oceans.

In addition to providing aircraft and ground controllers with
up-to-the-minute maps of turbulence, the NCAR team is turning to an
artificial intelligence technique, known as "random forests," to
provide short-term forecasts.

Random forests, which have proven useful for forecasting
thunderstorms
over land, consist of many decision trees that each cast a yes-or-no
"vote" on crucial elements of the storm at future points in time and
space. This enables scientists to forecast the movement and strength
of the storm during the next few hours.

"Our goal is to give pilots a regularly updated picture of the likely
storms ahead as they fly over the ocean, so they can take action to
minimize turbulence and keep their aircraft out of danger," explained
NCAR scientist Cathy Kessinger, a project team member.

The NCAR project is funded by NASA's Applied Sciences Program, which
seeks to translate NASA's investment in Earth observations into
applications that address real problems. The program and its partners
are working to bridge the gap between research results and
operational aviation weather products in such areas as in-flight
icing, convective weather, turbulence, volcanic ash and space
weather.

For images related to this turbulence prototype system, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/fea...urbulence.html

For more information about NASA and agency programs, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov

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