No Significant Relief from Global Warming

Chris L Peterson wrote in
:

On Tue, 23 Jan 2018 09:05:45 -0700, Jibini Kula Tumbili
Kujisalimisha wrote:

NPR (that bastion of conservative extremism) was just talking
this morning about how all the biggest manufacturers of solar
panels are in China these days, because China has been
subsidizing them (and encouraging dumping in the international
market) for a decade or so. And how ****ed they re with the new
tariff, which brings their prices up to something more
competitive to the less (but still) subsidized US manufacturers.

It will raise the price of panels, of course. But panels are
already one of the less expensive parts of any PV system.

Heh. And solar is still subsidized in the US by a couple orders of
magnitdue more per MwH than fossil fuel generation.

No. The traditional fossil fuels are petroleum and coal, both
of which are now being priced out of the energy generation
market.

More by the low prices of natural gas than the high prices of
either, of course. There's a real glut of natural gas these
days, and it's not likely to end soon.

Coal will not recover.

And really won't be missed much. Though I suspect it will continue
to provide material for manufacturing for centuries.

It's simply too dirty and too expensive
to clean. It was already being priced out even before cheap
natural gas showed up. Petroleum costs will depend upon supply,
but most evidence points to that diminishing. Meanwhile, solar
and wind will certainly continue to get cheaper.

Except when it gets more expensive, as the subsidies end.

Yeah, hold your breath on that. It will take a lifetime to build
enough infrastructure and generating capacity to replace
gasoline powered cars with eelectrics (which will required at
least a 1/3 increase in total capacity in the US).

That's almost certainly a myth. Most of the infrastructure
already exists right in people's homes.

No, it's not. The US currently uses the equivalent of about one
terrawatt-hour in gasoline every year. That's about 1/3 of the
total electrical generating capacity in the US right now. There
isn't that much excess generating capacity, nor is there enough
transmission capacity in the current grids to handle that much
more.

And if you want to use your current 110v outlet to charge your
electric car, you'll be waiting at least 8-10 hours for every three
or four you drive. And you'll almost certainly be doing so during
peak usage hours. (Where people live - like southern California -
electricity is *more* expensive than gasoline per mile drive, by at
least twice as much.) Then, of course, there's the very large
number of people who rent their homes. My apartment complex isn't
going to install $50,000+ chargers for each of the almost 200 units
without raising the rest well beyond anything I could afford. And
there's no enclose cparking, so even if they did, people would
steal the copper anyway. I, at least, have off stree parking. Many
do not. Do you expect cities to install $50,000 chargers like
parking meters?

But the real killer, the thing for which there simply isn't a
vaiable solution, is energy transfer times. You can put enough gas
into a car to travel 300+ miles in about three minutes. For a home
charger, that's 8+ hours. For the commercial chargers in use today,
50 kw unites, that's still 2-3 hours. For Proche's proposed 350 kw
chargers, it still 20 minutes. Using existing technology, a gas
station with 16 pumps today would need nearly 200 charging stations
(at $50k+ each) to service the same number of vehicles. And a 30
megawatt power circuit coming in. To transfer energy as quickly -
300+ miles of driving in three minutes - would require a 3 megawatt
charger. Do you *really* want to see the average moron who is
trying to shave and eat breakfest while driving handling ap irce of
wire that that will literally explode if mishandled? (With debris
likely causing a chain reaction with other chargers)?

30 megawatt circuit per gas station. There are 680,000 places in
the US that sell gasoline.

(Aside from the fact that there simply isn't enough lithium
production in the world to build a couple hundred million cars, nor
will there be any time soon. And that's just the US.)

No, it's not a myth. Electric cars will soon be fine for a second
vehicle as a daily driver for people who don't commute too far. But
they cannot do everything a gasoline car does. So most people have
the choice of either buying a gasoline car that does everything
they need, or an electric car that doesn't, or buying two cars.

Good luck with that.


Battery technology is not dependent upon foreign materials,

Are there rare earth mines actually productive in the US now?
China is the biggest producer, and they've already manipulated
the market to protect their own interests.

Battery technology does not utilize much in the way of rare
earths.

It does utilize ltihium, which has its own issues.

there is no military cost.

Today.

Why would there be if we're not dependent upon foreign sources
for materials?

China is the biggest producer of rare earths. Which are used in
battery production, and wich are absolutely required for the
electronics needed for charging. (And without the electronic
controls, lithium batteries are far too dangerous for consumer
use.)

And battery technology does not have
a large environmental impact.

Now you're into retard territory.

That's not an intelligent response.

You didn't offer an intellectual statement. You said something
*stupid*.

There is lots of information
out there about the environmental issues surrounding batteries.
The lead acid battery industry achieves near 100% recycling, and
is viewed as a model for how other battery lifecycles can be
modeled. The toxins in the batteries and used for manufacturing
are usually not significant, and are manageable.

Not when you scale it up to the 60 million cars manufactured every
year. (And there isn't enough lithium production to support that
anyway.)

We don't see
environmental releases from batteries (and certainly not at the
levels we see from burning fossil fuels).

We don't see 1% as many electric cars being manufactures as
gasolien cars, either.

Nor do the production of wind or
solar production equipment.

Wind, less so. Solar requires exotic materials, as do high tech
batteries, both of which have environmental implications for
manufacture, and disposal after they're worn out.

No, not really. The bulk of the materials are not in the least
exotic

So you agree that some of the materials *are*. 60 million cars a
year.

and the manufacturing processes are the same or similar
to what we see in a great many products today, where
environmental impact is well controlled.

That's mighty fine Kool-Aid you're smoking there, son.

--
Terry Austin

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"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.