Elon Musk's Killer App for Space

Here is an interesting article:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/682/1

"Musk made it clear in his talk that his long-term vision doesn't end
with launching
spacecraft to the ISS. While SpaceX develops the Merlin 1C, a
kerosene/liquid oxygen
engine, Musk said the company was also considering developing a liquid
hydrogen/liquid
oxygen upper stage engine. Such an engine would be "really critical
for going beyond
Earth orbit," he said. Such an engine used on the largest version of
the Falcon 9
would be able to place nearly 50 tonnes into low Earth orbit.

At the same time, Musk is dismissive of some of the proposed
applications that could
take advantage of such a powerful rocket. "I don't believe in the
mining of stuff in
space. The transportation costs are so horrendously high that I don't
think there's
anything... if there were packages of purified crack cocaine in orbit
right now,
I'm not sure it would be financially viable to go and retrieve
them," he said,
to gales of laughter from the audience.

He was similarly dismissive of another popular proposed application,
space solar
power. "I know a lot about solar power," he said, "and trust me,
space solar power
is not a good option."

So what might be the "killer app" for space? Musk has an
unconventional answer.
"I think there's some number of people in the US and other
countries that would
pay to move to Mars," he claimed. "They would sell everything that
they've got,
and they would move to Mars." If the cost of a one-way journey to
Mars could be
lowered to the "single-digit millions" of dollars, he said, "I
think enough people
would pay that to actually make the business plan quite viable. I think
thousands
of people a year would pay that." Needless to say, that got a loud
round of
applause from the Mars Society conference attendees.

That concept might seem way of out left field for an industry that is
only now
accepting space tourism as a realistic market, but it also fits into
Musk's
personal philosophy. Early in his presentation he spoke of the
importance of
becoming a multiplanet species, calling it "one of the most important
things
we could possibly aspire to". "I think it's really incumbent upon
us to extend
life beyond Earth," he said. "Basically, to help make that happen
is why I
started SpaceX."

He admitted later in the talk, though, that to some people such a
vision
"sort of sounds like a ludicrous aspiration. So, if we can lay a few
stones
on that road, then I'll be pretty happy.""

Interesting idea, but if launch cost to Mars could be 'lowered to the
"single-digit millions" of dollars', I guess say 9 million. Won't
this also lower launch costs to Moons & NEOs? Making mining & SPS more
affordable?

Just my $0.02

Space Cadet

In article .com,
"Space Cadet" wrote:

Interesting idea, but if launch cost to Mars could be 'lowered to the
"single-digit millions" of dollars', I guess say 9 million. Won't
this also lower launch costs to Moons & NEOs? Making mining & SPS more
affordable?

Yes, exactly. I take from this that one can be smart and successful at
many things, but still completely way off base in others -- probably
when emotions are involved.

I don't understand the emotional pull that Mars has for many people, but
apparently it's very strong. That suggests that there could indeed be a
market for Martian real estate someday, illogical though it is -- but by
the time that's viable, as you point out, other markets will be even
more viable.

Best,
- Joe

wow

Elon Musk, the man who sold Mars...

fantastic

If he pulls it off he will be right up there will Magellan, Columbus
the Mayflower

all of whom were driven by emotion and passion, not rationalism...

screw rationalism and Go Elon!!!!

ps: gimme a job - 1 way to Mars? when do I start?

Sorry for the top post, but "killer app" for spaceflight seems like a
real jinx to me. It's cutesy WRT software but spaceflight? Unwise...

Eric

Space Cadet wrote:
Here is an interesting article:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/682/1

"Musk made it clear in his talk that his long-term vision doesn't end
with launching
spacecraft to the ISS. While SpaceX develops the Merlin 1C, a
kerosene/liquid oxygen
engine, Musk said the company was also considering developing a liquid
hydrogen/liquid
oxygen upper stage engine. Such an engine would be "really critical
for going beyond
Earth orbit," he said. Such an engine used on the largest version of
the Falcon 9
would be able to place nearly 50 tonnes into low Earth orbit.

At the same time, Musk is dismissive of some of the proposed
applications that could
take advantage of such a powerful rocket. "I don't believe in the
mining of stuff in
space. The transportation costs are so horrendously high that I don't
think there's
anything... if there were packages of purified crack cocaine in orbit
right now,
I'm not sure it would be financially viable to go and retrieve
them," he said,
to gales of laughter from the audience.

He was similarly dismissive of another popular proposed application,
space solar
power. "I know a lot about solar power," he said, "and trust me,
space solar power
is not a good option."

So what might be the "killer app" for space? Musk has an
unconventional answer.
"I think there's some number of people in the US and other
countries that would
pay to move to Mars," he claimed. "They would sell everything that
they've got,
and they would move to Mars." If the cost of a one-way journey to
Mars could be
lowered to the "single-digit millions" of dollars, he said, "I
think enough people
would pay that to actually make the business plan quite viable. I think
thousands
of people a year would pay that." Needless to say, that got a loud
round of
applause from the Mars Society conference attendees.

That concept might seem way of out left field for an industry that is
only now
accepting space tourism as a realistic market, but it also fits into
Musk's
personal philosophy. Early in his presentation he spoke of the
importance of
becoming a multiplanet species, calling it "one of the most important
things
we could possibly aspire to". "I think it's really incumbent upon
us to extend
life beyond Earth," he said. "Basically, to help make that happen
is why I
started SpaceX."

He admitted later in the talk, though, that to some people such a
vision
"sort of sounds like a ludicrous aspiration. So, if we can lay a few
stones
on that road, then I'll be pretty happy.""

Interesting idea, but if launch cost to Mars could be 'lowered to the
"single-digit millions" of dollars', I guess say 9 million. Won't
this also lower launch costs to Moons & NEOs? Making mining & SPS more
affordable?

Just my $0.02

Space Cadet

Space Cadet wrote:

Here is an interesting article:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/682/1

[snip]

Interesting idea, but if launch cost to Mars could be 'lowered to the
"single-digit millions" of dollars', I guess say 9 million. Won't
this also lower launch costs to Moons & NEOs? Making mining & SPS more
affordable?

Just my $0.02

Space Cadet


But even at SpaceX prices, with operational Falcon 9s, how much mass
would have to be lofted (and with who knows how many rendezvous) to get
even one solar powersat of useful size?

Until you have huge (500,000lb or more to LEO) RLVs, I doubt you'd
see it. (And such designs have been around for a long time, but you'd
have to demonstrate that and other markets that need massive
paylods-per-launch, before development. That'll probably happen, but
it'll be quite a while.)

--

Frank

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