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Sobering GIF Shows Earth’s Climate Spiraling Toward The Brink



 
 
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  #1  
Old June 1st 16, 02:05 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Sam Wormley[_2_]
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Default Sobering GIF Shows Earth’s Climate Spiraling Toward The Brink

The Boiling Pot
http://www.postcarbon.org/the-boiling-pot/



On the surface, things appear normal. The status quo of life in
America circa 2016 isn’t to everyone’s liking, but at least the
system is still working after a fashion. The price of oil is going up
a bit: that means the cost of driving is also creeping higher, but
steeper prices provide a little welcome relief for an oil industry
otherwise teetering on the brink of financial ruin. There are
tiresomely long lines at airports, but that means people have the
wherewithal to pay for plane tickets. Most people are disgusted with
the presumptive U.S. presidential candidates, but at least the
machine of electoral politics is still marginally functioning. The
stock market is up, unemployment is down. We’re muddling through.

Or are we? Beneath the lid, a pot of trends is coming to a boil. If
Carl Jung was right about the existence of a collective unconscious,
it must be seething with nightmares right about now.

So far, 2016 is the hottest year in history. And not by just a
smidgen: every single month so far has set a record. This handy
little animation has been making the rounds of environmental websites
in the last couple of weeks; it shows a climate system that is
shooting off the rails.



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  #2  
Old June 1st 16, 06:43 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
oriel36[_2_]
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Posts: 8,478
Default Sobering GIF Shows Earth’s Climate Spiraling Toward The Brink

On Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 2:05:55 AM UTC+1, Sam Wormley wrote:

So far, 2016 is the hottest year in history. And not by just a
smidgen: every single month so far has set a record. This handy
little animation has been making the rounds of environmental websites
in the last couple of weeks; it shows a climate system that is
shooting off the rails.



There is only one thing worse than trying to fit astronomical methods into experimental sciences and that is scaling up experimental sciences into these monstrosities like 'climate change'. How an entire society managed to believe that planetary climate amounts to extended weather patterns would probably be the subject of many books and documentaries in the future but so far I haven't seen anyone who can actually discuss the matter at a level in which such a preposterous notion became such a mainstream focus in politics,education and the wider society.

How many times have I offered to go on a historical journey with you Sam to revisit the attempt to make astronomical insights fit into Newton's worldview based on experimental sciences which amounts to reducing astronomy to the classroom and academia instead of making the connection between planetary dynamics and terrestrial sciences. Of course this is where you get the notion that a greenhouse scales up to a planet and climate.

Nations and societies who are driven by fear and doom always act the same way, the last time this happened was when the National Socialists appealed to the 'laws of nature' as an extension of the laws of physics/motion/gravity to generate a catastrophe for a continent -

" A lopsided education has helped to encourage that illusion. Man must realize that a fundamental law of necessity reigns throughout the whole realm of Nature and that his existence is subject to the law of eternal struggle and strife. He will then feel that there cannot be a separate law for mankind in a world in which planets and suns follow their orbits, where moons and planets trace their destined paths, where the strong are always the masters of the weak and where those subject to such laws must obey them or be destroyed." Hitler

The idea that "humanity must realize" is a long way from humanity comes to understand principles of astronomy and terrestrial sciences as a means to inspire rather than as a vehicle of convictions.



  #3  
Old June 1st 16, 04:19 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gary Harnagel
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Posts: 659
Default Sobering GIF Shows Earth’s Climate Spiraling Toward The Brink

On Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 7:05:55 PM UTC-6, Sam Wormley wrote:

The Boiling Pot

http://www.postcarbon.org/the-boiling-pot/

On the surface, things appear normal. The status quo of life in
America circa 2016 isn’t to everyone’s liking, but at least the
system is still working after a fashion. The price of oil is going up
a bit: that means the cost of driving is also creeping higher, but
steeper prices provide a little welcome relief for an oil industry
otherwise teetering on the brink of financial ruin. There are
tiresomely long lines at airports, but that means people have the
wherewithal to pay for plane tickets. Most people are disgusted with
the presumptive U.S. presidential candidates, but at least the
machine of electoral politics is still marginally functioning. The
stock market is up, unemployment is down. We’re muddling through.

Or are we? Beneath the lid, a pot of trends is coming to a boil. If
Carl Jung was right about the existence of a collective unconscious,
it must be seething with nightmares right about now.

So far, 2016 is the hottest year in history. And not by just a
smidgen: every single month so far has set a record. This handy
little animation has been making the rounds of environmental websites
in the last couple of weeks; it shows a climate system that is
shooting off the rails.


This is little more than scare hype. The only thing that has meaning is the
MEAN yearly temperatures. Monthly temperatures are virtually irrelevant.
If you look at NASA's data:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.txt

from 2000 to 2015, the average mean temperature was 0.79 degrees C above the
nominal 1951-1980 base temperature with a sigma of 0.11 degree. The highest
deviation is in 2015 with a value of 0.99, about two sigma above the mean.
Is this REALLY enough to proclaim that the sky is falling?

NASA claims that the uncertainty in the mean values is about 0.1 degree,
which means that the 0.99 value could be 0.89 or 1.09, and the uncertainty
of the average mean could range from 0.69 to 0.89, which means that the
data could fit a FLAT line just as well!

The last four data points (2012 to 2015) certainly LOOK disturbing, but true
global warming is a long-term effect. Conclusion: the recent increase is
most unlikely to continue. Note the values from 1887 to 1889 which increased
from -0.33 to -0.11, a similar increase observed over the recent period under
discussion. After the -0.11, the mean dropped back to a value even lower
than the 1887 value.

Gary
 




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