Bright Comet Coming - Comet Machholz (C/2004 Q2)

We will have a naked-eye comet in the evening sky for December and
January - the recently-discovered Comet Machholz, C/2004 Q2. It moves
slowly northward through Lepus and Eridanus, speeding up as it passes
near the Pleiades on Jan. 7. Its peak magnitude was estimated as 4.1 by
the Minor Planet Center. Then it's on to Perseus, Camelopardalus, and
practically Polaris.

I have created RTGUI position files for the two comets at
http://www.debunker.com/astro/rtguipage.html . Load them up to get the
comet's position for whatever date & time the program is set to. Also,
if you have Skycharts installed (Cartes du Ciel), you can see its
position.

Comet Tucker(C/2004 Q1), however, looks like it will stay pretty faint.
--
Robert Sheaffer - User name "Roberto" at debunker-dot-com
Skeptical to the Max!
Visit the Debunker's Domain - http://www.debunker.com
Resources Debunking All Manner of Bogus Claims
Also: Skepticism / Astronomy / Opera / more

I would suggest that observers not get all that excited about this object just
yet. Remember all the hype regarding the two most recent "bright" comets LINEAR
and NEAT, which fell far short of most predictions of brightness and
grandeur...including those issued by the MPC (which are meant only as a _very_
general guide anyway)?

This comet is still quite distant from the Sun and with a perihelion distance
of 1.2AU, unlikely to develop into anything very impressive. Odds favor it
looking a moderately diffuse, small, cloud, the coma spanning perhaps 15-25 arc
minutes at the time of closest approach to Earth in January. This situation
implies a rather low surface brightness for the comet...with a general
appearance to the naked eye like something midway between M44 and M33. Perhaps
a pleasing sight from the country but not much for urban observers.

JBortle

John Bortle wrote:
I would suggest that observers not get all that excited about this object
just
yet. Remember all the hype regarding the two most recent "bright" comets
LINEAR
and NEAT, which fell far short of most predictions of brightness and
grandeur...including those issued by the MPC (which are meant only as a
_very_
general guide anyway)?

C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) may have peaked 2-3 magnitude fainter than the most optomistic
early predictions, but that didn't stop it from putting on a fine display; the
best I've seen since Hale-Bopp:
http://members.aol.com/billferris/neat051404.html

Regards,

Bill Ferris
"Cosmic Voyage: The Online Resource for Amateur Astronomers"
URL: http://www.cosmic-voyage.net
=============
Email: Remove "ic" from .comic above to respond

"Bill Ferris" wrote in message
...
John Bortle wrote:
I would suggest that observers not get all that excited about this object
just
yet. Remember all the hype regarding the two most recent "bright" comets
LINEAR
and NEAT, which fell far short of most predictions of brightness and
grandeur...including those issued by the MPC (which are meant only as a
_very_
general guide anyway)?

C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) may have peaked 2-3 magnitude fainter than the most
optomistic
early predictions, but that didn't stop it from putting on a fine display;
the
best I've seen since Hale-Bopp:
http://members.aol.com/billferris/neat051404.html


I personally wouldn't compare it to Hale-Bopp, which while remaining small
for suburban astronomers did get bright enough that if you knew where to
look you could spot it with the unaided eye easily. NEAT didn't do this.

Also, I hope NEAT and LINEAR will finally drive home the message that comet
predictions are like political polls; they're basically meaningless until
you get within three days of the election, or three weeks to peak
brightness. I suspect comet magnitude predictions and meteor shower rate
predictions appeal to a large part of the populous that is also interested
in other uncertain outcomes, like who will win the horse race, the World
Series, the Super Bowl, et al, even before the race starts. And if history
has shown us anything, it's that all predictions are meaningless until the
race is pretty far along its course.

So let's just all calm down, sit back, enjoy the coming months, and wait
until this comet, and any future comets, get within three weeks of
perihelion, and then make meaningful and fairly accurate predictions unlike
the ones we're hearing now.

Just my two cents.

--
Yours Truly,
--- Dave

----------------------------------------------------------------------
'raid if you're afraid you'll have to overlook it.
Besides, you knew the job was dangerous when you took it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

David Nakamoto wrote:
"Bill Ferris" wrote in message
...

John Bortle wrote:

I would suggest that observers not get all that excited about this object
just
yet. Remember all the hype regarding the two most recent "bright" comets
LINEAR
and NEAT, which fell far short of most predictions of brightness and
grandeur...including those issued by the MPC (which are meant only as a
_very_
general guide anyway)?

C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) may have peaked 2-3 magnitude fainter than the most
optomistic
early predictions, but that didn't stop it from putting on a fine display;
the
best I've seen since Hale-Bopp:
http://members.aol.com/billferris/neat051404.html



I personally wouldn't compare it to Hale-Bopp, which while remaining small
for suburban astronomers did get bright enough that if you knew where to
look you could spot it with the unaided eye easily. NEAT didn't do this.

Also, I hope NEAT and LINEAR will finally drive home the message that comet
predictions are like political polls; they're basically meaningless until
you get within three days of the election, or three weeks to peak
brightness. I suspect comet magnitude predictions and meteor shower rate
predictions appeal to a large part of the populous that is also interested
in other uncertain outcomes, like who will win the horse race, the World
Series, the Super Bowl, et al, even before the race starts. And if history
has shown us anything, it's that all predictions are meaningless until the
race is pretty far along its course.

So let's just all calm down, sit back, enjoy the coming months, and wait
until this comet, and any future comets, get within three weeks of
perihelion, and then make meaningful and fairly accurate predictions unlike
the ones we're hearing now.

Just my two cents.

Agreed. Don't you just wish though, that the "experts" were wrong the
other way? Lots of comets are predicted to put on a great show, but few
do. Why not predicted dogs lighting up the sky? It shows how they pad
their predictions.
I wonder if they'd predict supernovas and GRBs in the Milky Way if they
thought they could get away with it. ;-)

Shawn

(JBortle) wrote in message ...
I would suggest that observers not get all that excited about this object just
yet. Remember all the hype regarding the two most recent "bright" comets LINEAR
and NEAT, which fell far short of most predictions of brightness and
grandeur...including those issued by the MPC (which are meant only as a _very_
general guide anyway)?

Aren't comet connoiseurs used to this sort of thing by now?

This comet is still quite distant from the Sun and with a perihelion distance
of 1.2AU, unlikely to develop into anything very impressive. Odds favor it
looking a moderately diffuse, small, cloud, the coma spanning perhaps 15-25 arc
minutes at the time of closest approach to Earth in January. This situation
implies a rather low surface brightness for the comet...with a general
appearance to the naked eye like something midway between M44 and M33. Perhaps
a pleasing sight from the country but not much for urban observers.

Par, par.

More generally, anyone who still *expects* grand performances from
comets at this late date probably deserves to be disappointed. :-P

Besides, you're talking to a crowd here that might take this as a
challenge. :-)

Your warning is perhaps best heeded by those who will go Christmas
shopping for a telescope, given the unfortunate timing of this
apparition, without consulting SAA first. Of course, those who don't
consult SAA won't see your warning, but...


Clear skies!

--
------------------- Richard Callwood III --------------------
~ U.S. Virgin Islands ~ USDA zone 11 ~ 18.3N, 64.9W ~
~ eastern Massachusetts ~ USDA zone 6 (1992-95) ~
--------------- http://cac.uvi.edu/staff/rc3/ ---------------

Well, lets hope it keeps to the predicted brightness curve...have to
admit I was a bit disappointed with NEAT's display, but any comet is a
good comet. Comet Bradfield was a quick surpise last Spring, not
super bright, but it had a pretty spectacular tail...

Clear Skies,

--DJ


Robert Sheaffer wrote in message . com...
We will have a naked-eye comet in the evening sky for December and
January - the recently-discovered Comet Machholz, C/2004 Q2. It moves
slowly northward through Lepus and Eridanus, speeding up as it passes
near the Pleiades on Jan. 7. Its peak magnitude was estimated as 4.1 by
the Minor Planet Center. Then it's on to Perseus, Camelopardalus, and
practically Polaris.

I have created RTGUI position files for the two comets at
http://www.debunker.com/astro/rtguipage.html . Load them up to get the
comet's position for whatever date & time the program is set to. Also,
if you have Skycharts installed (Cartes du Ciel), you can see its
position.

Comet Tucker(C/2004 Q1), however, looks like it will stay pretty faint.

David Nakamoto wrote:
I personally wouldn't compare it to Hale-Bopp, which while remaining small
for suburban astronomers did get bright enough that if you knew where to
look you could spot it with the unaided eye easily. NEAT didn't do this.

Of course, nobody has suggested comet NEAT was the equal of Hale-Bopp. NEAT did
put on a very nice display--better than most comets--but certainly doesn't
belong in that category of "Great Comets" where one finds Hale-Bopp listed.

That said, anybody who made the effort to observe NEAT under a dark sky saw a
fine display. NEAT was easily visible to the naked eye. It sported three tails,
the longest about 4-degrees by my estimate. And NEAT was observable for several
weeks, becoming a regular feature of the early summer sky.

Nobody knows with certainty what kind of display recently discovered comet
Machholz will put on, next year. But if it performs as well as NEAT, we're in
for a nice show...at least, those of us who make the effort.

Regards,

Bill Ferris
"Cosmic Voyage: The Online Resource for Amateur Astronomers"
URL: http://www.cosmic-voyage.net
=============
Email: Remove "ic" from .comic above to respond

Of course, nobody has suggested comet NEAT was the equal of Hale-Bopp.


Hi Bill and all,

Which comet NEAT? There are _lots_ of NEAT comets. Lots of LINEAR comets =

too. The Harvard observable comet's page lists 24 NEAT comets and 60=20
LINEAR comets. Here's the url...

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/Ephemerides/Comets/

Bill, i know you meant comet C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) [at least i think you did] =

but i'd just like to remind people that it's helpful to remember to=20
specify which comet you mean when you're refering to an automated=20
discovery system.=20

Thanks! ;-)


-Florian, who enjoyed comet C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) very much with his TV76

"Florian" wrote in newsjvZc.17155$Bt5.525
@twister.socal.rr.com:

Of course, nobody has suggested comet NEAT was the equal of Hale-Bopp.


Hi Bill and all,

Which comet NEAT? There are _lots_ of NEAT comets. Lots of LINEAR comets
too. The Harvard observable comet's page lists 24 NEAT comets and 60
LINEAR comets. Here's the url...

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/Ephemerides/Comets/

Bill, i know you meant comet C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) [at least i think you did]
but i'd just like to remind people that it's helpful to remember to
specify which comet you mean when you're refering to an automated
discovery system.

In his earlier post, he did specify that he was talking about C/2001 Q4
(NEAT).