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Questions about "The High Frontier"



 
 
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  #51  
Old October 4th 07, 03:54 AM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Michael Ash
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"

In rec.arts.sf.science Jonathan wrote:
Why aren't people fleeing now?


Who says they're not trying?


Some may be, but the population in Beijing is growing enormously. There
was until recently a huge construction boom caused by a great demand for
housing, with new high-rise apartment buildings going up all over the
place. This has only stopped because the government prohibited new
non-Olympic construction in order to concentrate effort on what they think
is important and so that visitors don't get a bad impression of the city
due to a skyline crammed with half-finished construction.

So obviously most of the people either don't know, don't care, or think
it's a worthwhile tradeoff.

Air Pollution Grows in Tandem with China's Economy

"For Qiao Xiaoling, such bald statistics disguise the terrible
pain of loss. Her husband died four years ago from leukemia.
Then lung cancer claimed her 34-year-old son. As she minds
her 3-year-old grandson, she admits she doesn't know
what caused their illnesses.

"I don't know if it's because of the water or the air. I'm scared
in my heart and worry about this little boy. I think about
moving, but I don't have the money," Qiao says.


Very sad but if the plural of anecdote is not data, then the singular
definitely isn't.

A formal draft of the report, ?Cost of Pollution in China,? was
released at a conference in Beijing in March after the deletions.
The excised information included statistical models estimating
that as many as 750,000 people a year die prematurely in
China, because of air and water pollution.


"As many as" is a worthless phrase. If you must pick one number, pick the
median estimate. If you can, provide the error bars.

Even if true (brief searches indicate that the true number may be more
like 500,00) this is about ten times more pollution-caused deaths than in
the US, in a country with about four times as many people, for roughly
2.5x the death rate due to this cause. While that's certainly not good,
it's not nearly as horrendous as you make it sound.

--
Michael Ash
Rogue Amoeba Software
  #52  
Old October 4th 07, 05:40 AM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Jim Davis
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"

Jonathan wrote:

Here's a nice article from NPR about air pollution and the
upcoming Olymics. The Olympic committee is already
threatening to delay or move contests out of Beijing
due to extreme air pollution there.

One quote;

In Washington DC, the pollution index is typically about 30-40.
At 60 health warnings would be issued.
At 90 people would be told to stay indoors.
The pollution index in Beijing is usually between
170 to 240!


Let's get you on record here, Jonathan. You predict the 2008 Olympics
will not happen because of extreme air pollution. Fair enough?

Jim Davis

  #53  
Old October 4th 07, 06:29 AM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Troy
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"


This has always struck me as implausible. It's hard to see how most, or
even a few, nickel-iron asteroids would be uniform enough to make this
work without just fracturing during the process, wrecking the whole
enterprise.

--
Erik Max Francis && &&http://www.alcyone.com/max/
San Jose, CA, USA && 37 20 N 121 53 W && AIM, Y!M erikmaxfrancis
Come not between the dragon and his wrath.
-- Shakespeare, _King Lear_


I don't think it's plausible, either, but it's (fairly) easy to handle
large masses in space. The point is to make big hollow pressure
vessels on a large scale. Perhaps just unpeeling the asteroid into a
larger habitat using solar mirrors is a lot easier. A semi-molten
asteroid with differing pockets of viscosity all the way through is
just gonna pop.

  #54  
Old October 4th 07, 08:21 AM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Eivind Kjorstad
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"

Hop David skreiv:

However small orbital hotels with artificial gravity may be possible. If
lunar gravity is sufficient to maintain health, the rotating hab radius
need only be 1/6 of the radius necessary for earth gravity.

Nyrath has mentioned recent research on tolerance to angular velocity.
It indicates humans can tolerate higher rpms if transition is gradual. 4
as opposed to 1 rpm would mean a sixteen fold difference in radius length.

So much smaller and less expensive rotating habs may be possible.


High-rpm-low-radius habs have a different problem though, the apparent
gravity inside them has a sharp gradient, and coriolis would be a bitch.

Wouldn't it be easier to hang the hotel on a tether, with a counter-mass
on the other end, and spin it ? (the counter-mass can be a second hotel
if desired)

That way you can have as small a structure as you like, with very low
rpm, and still whatever gravity is needed to maintain health.


Eivind Kjørstad
  #55  
Old October 4th 07, 11:26 AM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Pat Flannery
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"



Damien Valentine wrote:
I see what you're saying, but curiously, that wasn't something that
O'Neill brought up. How many editions was "High Frontier" printed
in? Are you reading the same one as I am?


I've got the 1977 first edition by Morrow; start reading on page 198,
where the L colonies versus Utopias are discussed.
Although he says he isn't suggesting governmental policies on the L
colonies (and then goes on to do just that) he does point out that in a
lot of ways you are talking about a pretty controlled environment by
simple necessity.
The time frame of where the idea comes from is interesting; after the
counterculture communes of the late 1960s flopped and were looked back
upon as a great romantic dream that never panned out.
If you can't make it work in the real world...then build a new
world...literally, in this case. ;-)

Pat
  #56  
Old October 4th 07, 11:38 AM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Pat Flannery
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"



Hop David wrote:

I know of no one who has proposed that they be "given out" to anyone.
The "fringe movements" and "minority groups" will raise their own
money to build them.


And even if the habs all started out homogenous, all sharing the same
world view, they would diverge and schisms form. Especially if
different habs are separated by a large gulf. This is a recurring
pattern in human history.


As is war; and they can blow each other to hell with a single
non-nuclear weapon, provided that a political upset on board doesn't
lead to chaos and their own destruction as the factions fight it out
like two fish in a aquarium striving to be the first to blow up the
aeration system to put the other at a disadvantage.

Pat
  #57  
Old October 4th 07, 12:51 PM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Matthias Warkus
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"

Damien Valentine schrieb:
I suppose I want to start off by asking, "Would a Solar Power
Satellite work in the first place?"


Certainly; only there is so much solar power coming through the
atmosphere already that can be captured in pretty simple ways that the
immense cost of making powersats can only be justified if humanity's
energy consumption rises by something like several orders of magnitude.

mawa
--
http://www.prellblog.de
  #58  
Old October 4th 07, 12:55 PM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Matthias Warkus
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"

Pat Flannery schrieb:


Johnny1a wrote:

When you consider the gargantuan capitol investments were talking
about in building such machines, even once we're able to do so, the
chances that they'll be given out to fringe movements or minority
groups to 'experiment' with strains credulity.


They'll probably be run very similar to a military model; a very strict
rank hierarchy and everyone being assigned their jobs and knowing who
they take orders from. That hardly sounds like a Utopia, more like life
on a Nimitz class carrier.
For starters, the reason they are going to exist isn't to give people a
really fun place to live, but make a buck.


Think oil platform rather than aircraft carrier.

mawa
--
http://www.prellblog.de
  #59  
Old October 4th 07, 01:01 PM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Matthias Warkus
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"

Jonathan schrieb:
As oil and natural gas continues to rise every day, as the
third world continues explosive industrial growth, the third
world will turn to coal, and pollute us into desperation.
Solar power will then no longer be a matter of cost/benefit.

But a matter of survival.


Solar power is not the only clean renewable energy, but anyhow there is
no reason why non-orbital solar power shouldn't work. In fact it already
works just fine.

mawa
--
http://www.prellblog.de
  #60  
Old October 4th 07, 01:04 PM posted to rec.arts.sf.science,sci.space.history
Matthias Warkus
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Default Questions about "The High Frontier"

Hop David schrieb:
Johnny1a wrote:


If the primary goal were to build SPS, then the Habitats are
extravagances of the first order, you could achieve the same thing
more cheaply with orbital hotel type structures, utilitarian
facilities designed to house a rotating construction crew on a medium-
term basis. For a comparison, think offshore oil platforms. They
aren't luxurious, but they are tolerable/comfortable for a rotating
crew. To draw out the comparison (which I grant is imperfect),
imagine if someone proposed that the key to exploiting off-shore oil
resources was to construct floating towns that were ecologically self-
sustaining and designed to duplicate suburban living out of an
advanced Western state at sea.


I pretty much agree with this but would like to elaborate.

Orbital structures like the proposed Bigelow hotels would be inadequate
for long stays as gravity is needed to maintain health. Crew rotations
are very expensive so you want to make them infrequent.


People have held out in zero-g space stations for more than one year
without serious health problems AFAIK.

mawa
--
http://www.prellblog.de
 




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