#41
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Reconsideration
On Fri, 07 Apr 2006 04:46:10 -0400, in a place far, far away, Jim
Kingdon made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: a lot of alt.space advocates are realizing that COTS will have a much smaller market if ISS isn't completed Depends on the size and nature of the market that the alt.launcher company is aiming for. ISS could be 2x or 3x the size of the satellite market (very roughly, and depending on all kinds of assumptions about both what happens with ISS and with satellites). So it isn't necessarily a bad idea to try for the ISS business, but it is a smaller volume than what people are thinking of in terms of tourism. And, for many startups, smaller than the volume that will be required to make the case for the upside potential of a cheaper/more operable new launcher. Not to mention all of the hoops and additional design costs in an attempt to meet NASA's visiting vehicle requirements (that they'll waive for themselves, just like "human rating"). |
#42
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Reconsideration
On Thu, 06 Apr 2006 19:13:29 -0400, in a place far, far away, Monte
Davis made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: "Jorge R. Frank" wrote: if only because a lot of alt.space advocates are realizing that COTS will have a much smaller market if ISS isn't completed What a concept! ISS has been such a fine whipping boy for dissatisfaction with NASA, Clinton, Congress, Russia, international space efforts in general, and high-inclination orbits, that one could easily forget it is the only (and will remain for some time the largest) DESTINATION for manned orbital flight and cargo. "Largest" by what (useful, in terms of building a market and driving low-cost transport requirements) metric? One might suggest that if your goal is "airline-like" transportation between earth and destinations in LEO, it's kind of stupid -- cutting off your nose to spite your face -- to ignore or verbally trash the destination that exists in favor of Bigelow Hiltons to come. And one might similiarly suggest that it won't be all that useful for that. Like it or not, we'll have to wait for the hotels for sufficient market demand. |
#43
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Reconsideration
Rand Simberg ) wrote:
: On Thu, 06 Apr 2006 06:10:36 -0400, in a place far, far away, Jim : Davis made the phosphor on my monitor glow : in such a way as to indicate that: : Rand Simberg wrote: : : Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's : April Fools post. : : Pat's always been a little slow on the uptake, albeit amusingly : so... : : I was buying it hook, line, and sinker until I got to the part where : he realized Mark Whittington has been right all along. :-) : Well, I did save that for the end. I didn't think it fair not to : offer *some* clues... : About the only worse way he could have overplayed his hand was to : concede that Eric Chomko or Brad Guth had been right all along... : ?! : You mean they haven't been? Certainly, not according to you. But when has Brad ever said anything sceptical about commercial spaceflight? I'm pretty sure he's a true believer, right along with you on that one. Eric |
#44
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Reconsideration
Rand Simberg ) wrote:
: On Thu, 06 Apr 2006 07:01:02 -0400, in a place far, far away, nimcha : made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as : to indicate that: : He had me going up until about paragraph 3 or so (I think "We have a : space station, if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it" : was about when I stopped asking myself, "gee, what has Rand gotten : disillusioned about and what new direction does he see?"). : : : I was actually feeling sorry for him, but twas all a sham. : : Gosh and woe, how will I ever get by without the sympathy of Patrick : Flannery? : : You tricked me, too, although I was fooled mostly by your follow-up : excoriation of a guy who said 'April Fool's' in your website's : comments... : Well, it was still April 1st at the time. But by the time your post came through NNTP to the rest of us it was! Eric |
#46
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Reconsideration
Rand Simberg ) wrote:
: On Thu, 06 Apr 2006 07:21:13 -0400, in a place far, far away, : (Eric Chomko) made the phosphor on my : monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: : : Actually, I am making my living right now off a major aerospace firm, : : though as a consultant. It's in fact not in my financial interest for : : CEV to die, but I still think that it's a misbegotten program. : : Yeah, you're a consultant to a program you don't believe in. Sort of : reminds me of a prude that turns to prostitution. : Consultants aren't paid to "believe in" programs. They're paid for : sound technical advice and services. In fact, what often makes a : consultant valuable is their ability to be more objective about a : program than those who have a deep stake in it. I know what a consultant is and what they do! Geez. It does pay though to have a belief in what you're doing. |
#47
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Reconsideration
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#48
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Reconsideration
Rand Simberg ) wrote:
: On Thu, 06 Apr 2006 07:00:55 -0400, in a place far, far away, : (Eric Chomko) made the phosphor on my : monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: : Let me reiterate. I want to be wrong, proven wrong. : That's good, since you get your stated heart's desire every day, : multiple times, often in hilarious ways. All that said, none of this makes you right, Rand. Never forget THAT part of it. Again, if you truly are some sort of representative for commercial spaceflight (which is what this post was about -that part you deleted in your intellectually dishonest way), then no wonder it has no proven track record. In short, they'll need more than the likes of you to have success. Eric |
#49
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Reconsideration
On Sun, 09 Apr 2006 09:25:27 -0400, in a place far, far away, Monte
Davis made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: (Rand Simberg) wrote: Bigelow and Branson have been talking hotels... Got orbital elements for talk? How much delta-v required? What's the docking setup? The problem is that the market for ISS is so trivial... Gosh, I forgot about the huge booming orbital market out there already. Trivial compared to what's needed, not what else currently exists. The prospects for large hotels are much better than those for large government science labs. it drives to the wrong technical solutions Gosh, I forgot about all those superbly optimal technical solutions out there already. I seriously doubt that [COTS] will be seen in the future as having played a major role in opening up space. Must be fun looking back instead of being stuck here in 2006 with the rest of us. Look, I'm not advocating that alt.space organize itself around it; I didn't even mention COTS. You were talking about how great ISS would be for the market. Right now, that equals COTS. But I'd like to see a little more imagination applied to what ISS might *become*, including out-of-the-box thinking -- different ownership arrangements, modules other than those currently in the plan, a slow orbital plane change, whatever -- rather than what I do see... which is 99% "it's government, it was dumb, it's sucking money from the RttMoon, it's just going around in circles, it's not the marvelous Space Station Freedom we fantasized 22 years ago." ISS is like Shuttle--it's fundamentally unaffordable for anyone except a government from an operational standpoint, even if it were given away. |
#50
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Reconsideration
On Sun, 09 Apr 2006 09:30:26 -0400, in a place far, far away,
(Eric Chomko) made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: Rand Simberg ) wrote: : On Thu, 06 Apr 2006 07:00:55 -0400, in a place far, far away, : (Eric Chomko) made the phosphor on my : monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: : Let me reiterate. I want to be wrong, proven wrong. : That's good, since you get your stated heart's desire every day, : multiple times, often in hilarious ways. All that said, none of this makes you right, Rand. Who said it did? |
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