Fastest Sea-Level Rise in 2,000 Years Linked to Increasing Global Temperatures

Predicting real world systems is on topic everywhere. Imo.
Especially when one concept can predict...them all.

\
"Jonathan" wrote in message
...

On Tuesday, the 21st I just predicted in sci.military.naval

And what happens when a natural system is pushed far enough
from equilibrium to change state, is a period which can be called
chaos with order.
For instance take a good look at the five day chart of ticker ACUR
Any little thing, like a rumor can create another of those big spikes.
This pattern can't help but repeat itself soon, and look like a
two or three 'heartbeats'. So I bought in today at $4.06.
Give it a week or so, something dramatic must happen
..

I don't mean to brag, well, yes I do. It spiked to $ 4.40 in the
first ten minutes this Friday morning, thank you very much.

"June 24, 2011, 8:17 a.m."
"Acura Pharmaceuticals shares rise 20% in preopen"

"June 24, 2011, 4:36 p.m."
"Friday's biggest gaining and declining stocks"
1) "Acura Pharmaceuticals Inc"


ACUR 10 day chart
http://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/qui...e=18&x=27&y=12




Jonathan


s

Predicting real world systems is on topic everywhere. Imo.
Especially when one concept can predict...them all.

\"Jonathan" wrote in message

...

On Tuesday, the 21st I just predicted in sci.military.naval

And what happens when a natural system is pushed far enough
from equilibrium to change state, is a period which can be called
chaos with order.
For instance take a good look at the five day chart of ticker ACUR
Any little thing, like a rumor can create another of those big spikes.
This pattern can't help but repeat itself soon, and look like a
two or three 'heartbeats'. So I bought in today at $4.06.
Give it a week or so, something dramatic must happen

.

I don't mean to brag, well, yes I do. It spiked to $ 4.40 in the
first ten minutes this Friday morning, thank you very much.

"June 24, 2011, 8:17 a.m."
"Acura Pharmaceuticals shares rise 20% in preopen"

"June 24, 2011, 4:36 p.m."
"Friday's biggest gaining and declining stocks"
1) "Acura Pharmaceuticals Inc"

ACUR 10 day charthttp://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=acur&...

Jonathan

Maybe you have some theories on how you can be smarter than Warren
Buffet yet manage to stay off of Forbes' list.

Remember, to cull the greatest number of theories, the bar has been
lowered.

Your theories don't have to be plausible.


Bret Cahill

"Bret Cahill" wrote in message
...
Predicting real world systems is on topic everywhere. Imo.
Especially when one concept can predict...them all.

\"Jonathan" wrote in message

...

On Tuesday, the 21st I just predicted in sci.military.naval

And what happens when a natural system is pushed far enough
from equilibrium to change state, is a period which can be called
chaos with order.
For instance take a good look at the five day chart of ticker ACUR
Any little thing, like a rumor can create another of those big spikes.
This pattern can't help but repeat itself soon, and look like a
two or three 'heartbeats'. So I bought in today at $4.06.
Give it a week or so, something dramatic must happen

.

I don't mean to brag, well, yes I do. It spiked to $ 4.40 in the
first ten minutes this Friday morning, thank you very much.

"June 24, 2011, 8:17 a.m."
"Acura Pharmaceuticals shares rise 20% in preopen"

"June 24, 2011, 4:36 p.m."
"Friday's biggest gaining and declining stocks"
1) "Acura Pharmaceuticals Inc"

ACUR 10 day
charthttp://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=acur&...

Jonathan

Maybe you have some theories on how you can be smarter than Warren
Buffet yet manage to stay off of Forbes' list.



Theory and application are two different things.
I'm still working on the theory. But I'll make
plenty of money in time.


Remember, to cull the greatest number of theories, the bar has been
lowered.

Your theories don't have to be plausible.


What's that supposed to mean?


But demonstrations are the best kinds of proof.
I also used the same ideas to predict the stock market crash.
The Friday before the crash I predicted the market would
very soon see the worst single drop in it's entire history
and predicted the total fall to within ..half of 1%.

As far as I know, no one else publicly predicted the crash
even remotely as well. And I would like to point out, such
a panic is considered a one-off or unique event.
I predicted (precisely) in advance something which has never
happened before, the worst week in the history of the market.
That's not supposed to be possible.


On Friday Oct 3, 2008 9:11 pm I wrote....

"...The Stock Market Crash is Far From Over!"


"This is a typical panic-sell situation due to the massive
system wide uncertainty concerning mortgage debt.
The cliché "buy on the rumor, sell on the news"
most certainly applies I believe.

The 'news' in this particular panic is the rescue bill.
Which was just signed, making the next few weeks a sure
sell-off, and big time imho. People will look around the next
week or so asking ..."is it over, are we saved?"

"No, not really, nothing much has changed!"
Might be the reply.

And like a shotgun blast to a flock of birds, the panic-sell
will resume, ....and with a fervor not yet seen.
This kind of panic sells always have a false bottom
around half way down. For the Dow it {halfway down}was
just above 11,000, and the Nasdaq at around 2200.

The bottom will be around 8500 for the Dow, and
around 1700 for the Nasdaq ...imho.

I aint getting back in till then."

http://groups.google.com/group/misc....or:j onathan#


The following Monday the Dow closed down almost 400.
Tuesday saw the single largest drop in the Dow since 1937
dropping over 500 points for the day. And it dropped an
astonishing 995 points more by Friday to close the week
at 8451. The Nasdaq ended the week at 1690.

A one week fall of 19%. Worst week ever.

My prediction


Dow
49 / 8500 = .005% (error)


Nasdaq
10 / 1700 = .005% (error)


~ one week later....


The Stock Market Crash of 2008
October 10, 2008 10:03 AM


"ABC News' Betsy Stark reports: In 1987, it happened in a day. In 1929 it
happened in two days. Now it has happened in seven days, but the result is
same. The stock market has crashed."


Stock Market Crash of 2008


"Although history may state the actual market crash occurred on
Monday, October 6, 2008, the market experienced eight
consecutive trading days of negative movement starting on
October 1, 2008."
http://www.money-zine.com/Investing/...Crash-of-2008/





Bret Cahill

Predicting real world systems is on topic everywhere. Imo.
Especially when one concept can predict...them all.

\"Jonathan" wrote in message

om...

On Tuesday, the 21st I just predicted in sci.military.naval

And what happens when a natural system is pushed far enough
from equilibrium to change state, is a period which can be called
chaos with order.
For instance take a good look at the five day chart of ticker ACUR
Any little thing, like a rumor can create another of those big spikes.
This pattern can't help but repeat itself soon, and look like a
two or three 'heartbeats'. So I bought in today at $4.06.
Give it a week or so, something dramatic must happen

.

I don't mean to brag, well, yes I do. It spiked to $ 4.40 in the
first ten minutes this Friday morning, thank you very much.

"June 24, 2011, 8:17 a.m."
"Acura Pharmaceuticals shares rise 20% in preopen"

"June 24, 2011, 4:36 p.m."
"Friday's biggest gaining and declining stocks"
1) "Acura Pharmaceuticals Inc"

ACUR 10 day
charthttp://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=acur&...

Jonathan

Maybe you have some theories on how you can be smarter than Warren
Buffet yet manage to stay off of Forbes' list.

Theory and application are two different things.
I'm still working on the theory. But I'll make
plenty of money in time.

Try it out on paper over several years. If that works out _then_
start risking real money.

Just remember: No cheating or you'll wind up cheating yourself.


Bret Cahill

Jonathan wrote:

But demonstrations are the best kinds of proof.
I also used the same ideas to predict the stock market crash.
The Friday before the crash I predicted the market would
very soon see the worst single drop in it's entire history
and predicted the total fall to within ..half of 1%.

As far as I know, no one else publicly predicted the crash
even remotely as well. And I would like to point out, such
a panic is considered a one-off or unique event.
I predicted (precisely) in advance something which has never
happened before, the worst week in the history of the market.
That's not supposed to be possible.

rest snipped

Very impressive! Does your theory fit past performance, that is, past
performance *that you haven't used to tune your model*?

Dennis

"Dennis" wrote in message
. 4.11...
Jonathan wrote:

But demonstrations are the best kinds of proof.
I also used the same ideas to predict the stock market crash.
The Friday before the crash I predicted the market would
very soon see the worst single drop in it's entire history
and predicted the total fall to within ..half of 1%.

As far as I know, no one else publicly predicted the crash
even remotely as well. And I would like to point out, such
a panic is considered a one-off or unique event.
I predicted (precisely) in advance something which has never
happened before, the worst week in the history of the market.
That's not supposed to be possible.

rest snipped

Very impressive! Does your theory fit past performance, that is, past
performance *that you haven't used to tune your model*?


Well the theory and practical realities are two different things.
For instance, in theory the system boundaries might be
from zero to infinite, but in stock trading that's translated
to a range of from penny stocks to blue chips. The actual range
as observed. And so on.

This theory is based on how a system should respond to a
sudden disturbance. The dynamics of systems which have been
pushed far-from-equilibrium. Just far enough to self-organize.
As in a spring that takes a very long time to stop moving
once disturbed.

Typically, to gain predictability of any given system requires careful
study of all it's primary details and the various relationships to
other systems. Lots of potential error which only compounds with time.
And in stock trading the most important info is typically kept hidden
to 'outsiders' any ways. Frustrating even good classical approaches.

What ...isn't...unique to any given system is how
it responds to a disturbance. That's universal to any
system class given certain system dynamics. Systems
bifurcate into two /and only two/ pre-images (patterns)
when pushed just far enough from equilibrium and are
at the threshold of self-organizing.

The chart I just predicted is one of them. I know it like
the back of my hand. The other one is the pattern the
DOW displayed during the Big Crash, which is the
easier of the two to predict. These patterns are scale
independent and universal to the system of stock trading.

Every class of system has their own unique set of
two pre-images.

The idea is to first determine the abstract dynamics needed
to push a system far enough from equilibrium to self-organize, or
take on a life of it's own. Then derive what a chart with those
dynamics ...should...look like in a stock chart. Then adjust
the theoretical pattern to the practical realities.

Of course one of the appealing aspects of these ideas are
the fact they can be used with equal validity to any
critically interacting set of variables. Those variables
could be stocks, clouds, ecosystems, cosmology, emotions
or even ideas.


Calresco Themes (*in essay form)
http://calresco.org/themes.htm

Self-Organizing Faq
http://calresco.org/sos/sosfaq.htm

Dynamics of Complex Systems
(full online textbook)
http://www.necsi.org/publications/dcs/



Jonathan

s



Dennis

Jonathan wrote:

Well the theory and practical realities are two different things.
For instance, in theory the system boundaries might be
from zero to infinite, but in stock trading that's translated
to a range of from penny stocks to blue chips. The actual range
as observed. And so on.

This theory is based on how a system should respond to a
sudden disturbance. The dynamics of systems which have been
pushed far-from-equilibrium. Just far enough to self-organize.
As in a spring that takes a very long time to stop moving
once disturbed.

Typically, to gain predictability of any given system requires careful
study of all it's primary details and the various relationships to
other systems. Lots of potential error which only compounds with time.
And in stock trading the most important info is typically kept hidden
to 'outsiders' any ways. Frustrating even good classical approaches.

What ...isn't...unique to any given system is how
it responds to a disturbance. That's universal to any
system class given certain system dynamics. Systems
bifurcate into two /and only two/ pre-images (patterns)
when pushed just far enough from equilibrium and are
at the threshold of self-organizing.

The chart I just predicted is one of them. I know it like
the back of my hand. The other one is the pattern the
DOW displayed during the Big Crash, which is the
easier of the two to predict. These patterns are scale
independent and universal to the system of stock trading.

Every class of system has their own unique set of
two pre-images.

The idea is to first determine the abstract dynamics needed
to push a system far enough from equilibrium to self-organize, or
take on a life of it's own. Then derive what a chart with those
dynamics ...should...look like in a stock chart. Then adjust
the theoretical pattern to the practical realities.

Of course one of the appealing aspects of these ideas are
the fact they can be used with equal validity to any
critically interacting set of variables. Those variables
could be stocks, clouds, ecosystems, cosmology, emotions
or even ideas.


Calresco Themes (*in essay form)
http://calresco.org/themes.htm

Self-Organizing Faq
http://calresco.org/sos/sosfaq.htm

Dynamics of Complex Systems
(full online textbook)
http://www.necsi.org/publications/dcs/

Wonderful! I think this sort of thing fascinating - and the most
valuable thinking we have these days. Thanks!

I remember reading that this has been applied to predicting terrorist
attacks or their impact somehow.

Dennis

"Dennis" wrote in message
.11...
Jonathan wrote:

Well the theory and practical realities are two different things.
For instance, in theory the system boundaries might be
from zero to infinite, but in stock trading that's translated
to a range of from penny stocks to blue chips. The actual range
as observed. And so on.

This theory is based on how a system should respond to a
sudden disturbance. The dynamics of systems which have been
pushed far-from-equilibrium. Just far enough to self-organize.
As in a spring that takes a very long time to stop moving
once disturbed.

Typically, to gain predictability of any given system requires careful
study of all it's primary details and the various relationships to
other systems. Lots of potential error which only compounds with time.
And in stock trading the most important info is typically kept hidden
to 'outsiders' any ways. Frustrating even good classical approaches.

What ...isn't...unique to any given system is how
it responds to a disturbance. That's universal to any
system class given certain system dynamics. Systems
bifurcate into two /and only two/ pre-images (patterns)
when pushed just far enough from equilibrium and are
at the threshold of self-organizing.

The chart I just predicted is one of them. I know it like
the back of my hand. The other one is the pattern the
DOW displayed during the Big Crash, which is the
easier of the two to predict. These patterns are scale
independent and universal to the system of stock trading.

Every class of system has their own unique set of
two pre-images.

The idea is to first determine the abstract dynamics needed
to push a system far enough from equilibrium to self-organize, or
take on a life of it's own. Then derive what a chart with those
dynamics ...should...look like in a stock chart. Then adjust
the theoretical pattern to the practical realities.

Of course one of the appealing aspects of these ideas are
the fact they can be used with equal validity to any
critically interacting set of variables. Those variables
could be stocks, clouds, ecosystems, cosmology, emotions
or even ideas.


Calresco Themes (*in essay form)
http://calresco.org/themes.htm

Self-Organizing Faq
http://calresco.org/sos/sosfaq.htm

Dynamics of Complex Systems
(full online textbook)
http://www.necsi.org/publications/dcs/

Wonderful! I think this sort of thing fascinating - and the most
valuable thinking we have these days. Thanks!


Thanks for reading, I never tire of ranting about this new science, the
implications just go everywhere.



I remember reading that this has been applied to predicting terrorist
attacks or their impact somehow.


I wouldn't be surprised. Almost every US govt agency has a
Complexity Science program these days.

It looks like the terrorists stumbled into some of these ideas long ago
by figuring out how to create the maximum disturbance with the
minimum effort. And it's the random nature of terrorism which is
key to amplifying the effects. As everyone feels equally
at risk from each attack. Massive parallel connectivity can create
exaggerated non-linear effects.

Just as changing the amount of sunlight, every system is effected
at once, and all kinds of unintended consequences can quickly
snowball into a disturbance of maximum scale.

That kind of disturbance can be overwhelming in effect. We responded
....in kind...to 9/11 with a disturbance of our own that shook their entire
system to it's core. By planting the US flag in Baghdad, at the very heart
of Islam ...the Tigris and Euphrates.

The thing is, if a system is pushed too far from equilibrium, it'll
fly apart, if it's pushed just to the breaking point, and held there
then instead something wonderful happens, it evolves.

Terrorism causes brittle dictatorships to shatter, but causes resilient
natural systems like democracies to just grow stronger.
The terrorists should have stayed awake during math class.


Jonathan


Dennis

Jonathan wrote:

I remember reading that this has been applied to predicting terrorist
attacks or their impact somehow.

I wouldn't be surprised. Almost every US govt agency has a
Complexity Science program these days.

It looks like the terrorists stumbled into some of these ideas long
ago by figuring out how to create the maximum disturbance with the
minimum effort. And it's the random nature of terrorism which is
key to amplifying the effects. As everyone feels equally
at risk from each attack. Massive parallel connectivity can create
exaggerated non-linear effects.

Just as changing the amount of sunlight, every system is effected
at once, and all kinds of unintended consequences can quickly
snowball into a disturbance of maximum scale.

Terrorism he have always had with us, and no doubt always will. IMHO
what makes it different today is modern mass communications. Acts of
terrorism are immediately and widely publicized, which makes them so much
more effective. Their perception becomes far in excess of actual impact.

The Internal Macedonian Revolutionnary Organization is considered the
grand-daddy of modern terrorist organizations, I believe. They carried
out numerous assassinations between the Big Mistakes. At that time you
had mass-circulation newspapers and radio.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMRO

That kind of disturbance can be overwhelming in effect. We responded
...in kind...to 9/11 with a disturbance of our own that shook their
entire system to it's core. By planting the US flag in Baghdad, at the
very heart of Islam ...the Tigris and Euphrates.

The thing is, if a system is pushed too far from equilibrium, it'll
fly apart, if it's pushed just to the breaking point, and held there
then instead something wonderful happens, it evolves.

Terrorism causes brittle dictatorships to shatter, but causes
resilient natural systems like democracies to just grow stronger.
The terrorists should have stayed awake during math class.

I can't think of a dictatorship that has been broken by terrorism, unless
it's part of a revolutionnary movement.

Dennis

Terrorism is an inside job.

Alqueda is a product of CIA. They were used in Afghanistan against
the Russians and against Yugoslavia when they fell there. They are
being used today in Libya and Yemen to provoke events there. 9/11 was
an inside job - a false flag attack - just like the first attempt in
1993 - you know, the one that was carried out by the FBI? All to
kill our Constitution and create a police state before initiating an
economic collapse before arranging the killing of 95% of humanity.

It is the duty of all right thinking people to oppose this effort and
preserve as many people as possible.

Aeroponic techniques allow very high levels of productivity.

Consider a dozen pentagons made of 1/8 inch steel plate with edges of
65 feet - cut and welded into a dodecahedron massing 200 tons floating
in the ocean.

Each dodecahedron contains an acre of aeroponics crops, illuminated by
dual color high intensity gas discharge lights use carbon dioxide and
water vapor and operate at 40% efficiency. Ultra-low-cost solar
panels mounted on the top side of the dodecahedron also operate at
40%.

16% of solar energy is converted to light specifically tuned to drive
the short wave and long wave absorption spectra of chlorophyll.
Chlorophyll converts 0.5% of the solar spectrum into biomass.
Chlorophyll converts 40% of spectrum matched light into biomass. So,
5% to 6.5% of the converted sunlight is turned to biomass where pure
sunlight converts 0.5% to biomass.

This is how a dodecahedron with a 65 ft edge floating in the oceans
can produce 400,000 lbs of food - enough food to support 200 people at
a very high level.

So, to feed 8 billion people requires the construction of 40 million
of these dodecahedra - which require less than 5 years of steel
production worldwide. A production over 10 years produce 4 million
per year - about the same rate as automobile production. At a cost of
$200,000 each, applying an 8% discount rate and a life span of 20
years cost $20,000 - which translates to $100 per person per year - or
$0.05 per pound of food product. All products are produced from air
sea water and sunlight.

Each dodecahedron, an automated VTOL aircraft capable of carrying
2,000 lbs of food in 100 units of 20 lbs each - delivered to
individuals twice a week - within 1,000 miles of the dodecahedron upon
which its based. Four times a week the vehicle delivers food to 200
people.