Plutonium Blurb

Heads up Florida! He has a point about how distruptive
a launch failure could be in terms of evacuations, etc.

"http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Opinion/Editorials/03OpOPN45120405.htm"

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:

Heads up Florida! He has a point about how distruptive
a launch failure could be in terms of evacuations, etc.

"http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Opinion/Editorials/03OpOPN45120405.htm"

- Ed Kyle



Hmm. Lessee: "Grossman, professor of journalism at the State University
of New York/College at Old Westbury..."

Yeah.



--
"The only thing that galls me about someone burning the American flag is how unoriginal it is. I mean if you're going to pull the Freedom-of-speech card, don't be a hack, come up with something interesting. Fashion Old Glory into a wisecracking puppet and blister the system with a scathing ventriloquism act, or better yet, drape the flag over your head and desecrate it with a large caliber bullet hole." Dennis Miller

Ed:

Do you ever worry about the atmosperic nuke tests that dispersed a LOT
more than 25 lbs of Pu. Probably not because this really isnt an issue
but is simply fodder for the ignorant.

wrote:
Ed:

Do you ever worry about the atmosperic nuke tests that dispersed a LOT
more than 25 lbs of Pu.

Yes, actually. I spent some time looking at the once-secret
fallout maps. I think there is a pretty good chance that more
people died of cancer over the years as a result of the Nevada
tests especially than would otherwise have died. How many
we will never know, because smoking cancers were so much
more prevalent.

Here is the thing about an RTG space launch. The worst case
would be a launch failure on or near the pad - an explosion
and a big nasty fire that spread everything around and burned
for awhile with an onshore seabreeze blowing the smoke back
toward Merritt Island. Maybe the RTG modules stay mostly
intact as designed, etc., but what are the locals going to do?
They are going to beat it, that's what, hurricane evacuation
style, abandoning their cars roadside when the gas stations
run out as usual, etc.. A few will die during the evacuation, as
they usally do, from accidents or fistfights or whatever.

And who is going to handle the cleanup situation to the survivor's
satisfaction? FEMA? The Air Force? The Government that
has won its citizens over with its competence recently? And
given their rumor-spreading performance during Katrina, just
how well should we expect the national media to cover this
crises? What of the Port Canaveral fisheries? What of Port
Canaveral, with its cargo and passenger ships? What of
the Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center launch sites?
How much money to clean the mess?

Remember, Lockheed Martin is flying this particular RTG
aboard an unproven Atlas 5 variant (551, never flown before)
- on a particular rocket that was damaged, by the way, during
a recent hurricane - on a machine that was designed to meet
a 2% acceptable mission loss rate criteria.

The odds are against failure, but the odds of failure are still very
real. I look at it this way. I might go watch the launch myself,
but I wouldn't take my kids.

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:


Here is the thing about an RTG space launch. The worst case
would be a launch failure on or near the pad - an explosion
and a big nasty fire that spread everything around and burned
for awhile with an onshore seabreeze blowing the smoke back
toward Merritt Island. Maybe the RTG modules stay mostly
intact as designed, etc., but what are the locals going to do?
They are going to beat it, that's what, hurricane evacuation
style, abandoning their cars roadside when the gas stations
run out as usual, etc.. A few will die during the evacuation, as
they usally do, from accidents or fistfights or whatever.



If that happens, then the anti-nuke crowd needs to be arrested en masse
and put up on charges of inciting to riot.





--
"The only thing that galls me about someone burning the American flag is how unoriginal it is. I mean if you're going to pull the Freedom-of-speech card, don't be a hack, come up with something interesting. Fashion Old Glory into a wisecracking puppet and blister the system with a scathing ventriloquism act, or better yet, drape the flag over your head and desecrate it with a large caliber bullet hole." Dennis Miller

Ed Kyle wrote:

Here is the thing about an RTG space launch. The worst case
would be a launch failure on or near the pad - an explosion
and a big nasty fire that spread everything around and burned
for awhile with an onshore seabreeze blowing the smoke back
toward Merritt Island. Maybe the RTG modules stay mostly
intact as designed, etc., but what are the locals going to do?
They are going to beat it, that's what, hurricane evacuation
style, abandoning their cars roadside when the gas stations
run out as usual, etc.. A few will die during the evacuation, as
they usally do, from accidents or fistfights or whatever.

Unfortunate, and based on the unreasoning fear of anything "nuclear".
In the Titan 4B / Cassini launch, the greater immediate hazard from an
on pad or early launch explosion would have been from the nitrogen
tetroxide rather than the plutonium.

And who is going to handle the cleanup situation to the survivor's
satisfaction? FEMA? The Air Force? The Government that
has won its citizens over with its competence recently? And
given their rumor-spreading performance during Katrina, just
how well should we expect the national media to cover this
crises?

I expect the media to spread unreasoning fear. Particularly if they
get Mr Grossman on an interview. They will cause more immediate damage
than the any actual hazard from plutonium.

What of the Port Canaveral fisheries? What of Port
Canaveral, with its cargo and passenger ships? What of
the Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center launch sites?
How much money to clean the mess?

How these are affected will depend on the nature of the accident. The
greatest fear comes from the most unlikely scenarios, e.g., the intact
stack lands on top of Port Canaveral. As Grossman cites from the EIS,
the potential decontamination cost estimate is up to 1.3 billion per
square mile. This is for mixed-use urban areas. Rangeland
decontamination estimates is 241 million per square mile.

Remember, Lockheed Martin is flying this particular RTG
aboard an unproven Atlas 5 variant (551, never flown before)
- on a particular rocket that was damaged, by the way, during
a recent hurricane - on a machine that was designed to meet
a 2% acceptable mission loss rate criteria.

As I am sure you are aware, the damage was to the SRB that was already
attached to the Atlas V. The SRB was replaced. The 2% loss rate is
not from launch pad explosions and early launch failures but for the
entire mission up to spacecraft separation. Even with launch pad
explosions and early launch failures, the vast majority of accident
scenarios is for the RTG to survive intact.

The odds are against failure, but the odds of failure are still very
real. I look at it this way. I might go watch the launch myself,
but I wouldn't take my kids.

- Ed Kyle

I'd welcome an accident where they decided to evacuate part of Florida.
First, I know there is really nothing to worry about.
Second, as a 5th generation Fl native, I want to see all those people
go.

This is just anti-nuke hysteria from people who are ignorant.

Mike Chan wrote:


In the Titan 4B / Cassini launch, the greater immediate hazard from an
on pad or early launch explosion would have been from the nitrogen
tetroxide rather than the plutonium.

I may be misremembering this, but ISTR reading after an NRO T4B blew up
shortly after leaving the Cape that the launch rules said "don't go if
there's a breeze toward land", just because of the nitrogen tetroxide +
hydrazine hazard. Dunno if the same rule would be invoked for an RTG
launch.

On 4 Dec 2005 19:54:12 -0800, "Ed Kyle" wrote:

but what are the locals going to do?
They are going to beat it, that's what, hurricane evacuation
style, abandoning their cars roadside when the gas stations
run out as usual, etc.. A few will die during the evacuation, as
they usally do, from accidents or fistfights or whatever.

Funny, none of that happened after Three Mile Island, and that was
right after the "China Syndrome" anti-nuke propaganda, and during a
far more deadly threat.

I think most Brevardians will say "oh well, if its gonna get me, its
gonna get me." Floridians are a laid-back bunch, like New Orleans,
most people don't bother to evacuate for hurricanes and that's after
days of doom-and-gloom fear-mongering by the media and weather
forecasters saying "80% chance its gonna hit you." New Horizons won't
have that. There will be the usual news blurb about the RTG and the
usual 15-second news bit about the inevitable protesters, followed by
the newsgeek saying "but NASA says there's only once chance in 18
million" and so Joe Sixpack will ignore New Horizons. If it does blow,
it will be over before Joe Sixpack can get up and go anyway.

Brian

wrote in message
oups.com...
Ed:

Do you ever worry about the atmosperic nuke tests that dispersed a LOT
more than 25 lbs of Pu. Probably not because this really isnt an issue
but is simply fodder for the ignorant.

One of my grandfathers blamed his cancer on nuke tests. At one time, people
in Nevada used to go out and watch nuclear explosions. They even announced
it on the local radio.