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Follow up of "Find the Bottom".



 
 
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Old December 9th 09, 01:34 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jonathan
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Default Follow up of "Find the Bottom".


"Jonathan" wrote in message
...


Ticker NLST today bounced for almost 20%, yeilding what would
have been a down payment on a modest house, but I sold it
......yesterday.

A really beautiful pattern. With a transient length of over 20
days with no sign of returning to the previous equilibrium
any time soon. Transient length is the time between the initial
disturbance that is driving the system far from equilibrium, and
the time one can no longer tell the disturbance happened.
The greater the complexity/uncertainty, the longer the transient
length, and greater volatility in general. With emergent patterns
of all kinds showing up when far from equilibrium.

Most of these patterns are best seen in a 20 day chart, which few
places provide. Enter the ticker and in the drop down box on the right
click 'snap chart'. And then the 10 day option for this ticker, and
20 day for most others. The chart length should match the
transient length, or start a couple days before the disturbance.
That's how to keep the pattern scale independent, basing the
chart time period on transient length. This pattern works at
any scale from days to years.
http://www.prophet.net/analyze/sc.jsp?symbol=NLST


So I'm sticking to yesterday's purchase, PLX, for another day.
While keeping a close eye on NLST. Although in general
it's best to move on if you missed the bounce at the bottom.





"Jonathan" wrote in message
...


So I took the morning bounce of NLST at $4.75 for yet
another ho-hum 5%. If/when NLST drops below $4 I may
revisit it. Meanwhile doing a screen at lunch I bought
5000 of PLX at $8.5. Looking to shoot the gap back
up to $9 or so.



"Jonathan" wrote in message
...




NLST never dropped below $4, so very late Friday I bought
8500 shares at $4.53. Looking to ride an opening bounce
on Monday morning as far as I can. Then jump out and wait
for the volatility to provide another opportunity.

We'll see.



"Jonathan" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan" wrote in message
...


This ticker, ABIO, just had too little volume, otherwise I'd hang on
and see what happens next week. So I sold early at $2.90 for
another modest 5%. Both of these patterns have been rather
weak. The first, BCRX, had the final fall take place during
Thanksgiving week which seemed to slow it's fall and cause an
early and weak bounce. Plus the huge gap below probably has
drawn in a lot of short selling.

So I screened and found this pattern, NLST. Higher volume
and much higher volatility. With huge gaps above and below
inviting surges in volume.
http://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/qui...req=7& time=3

Looking for a large increase in volume that shows the trend reversal
somewhere around $3.75. A spike in volume is the better indicator
than any particular price with this kind of potential volatility.
Wait and watch for an obvious entry point, don't predict.

This one looks rather exciting, nice buzz about it with the first ever
16gb server memory chip. And a lawsuit thrown in to further increase
uncertainty. Uncertainty equals volatility. Volatility equals opportunity.

Sure wish I bought in last month, from 75 cents to $7.50 in two weeks.
Gotta love this world, we live in the best times ever.



s




Early market trading showed resistance around $8.50, so I sold
first thing at $8.43. Rather dissapointing, just under 5% return in
the five hours or so I held the stock, for a below average return of
about 1% per hour.

I did a screen and found ticker ABIO ripe and ready.

http://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/qui...eq=7& time=18

A 40% fall puts the bottom at about $2.7. This is a low volume ticker
so I bought only 5000 shares early this morning at an ave. of $2.76.






Last Monday, when ticker BCRX was at about $9 I predicted it would
bottom out at $7.5. Today it bounced off $8 twice ( a nice round number)
so I bought 5000 shares at an average of $8.05 before lunch. I'm nervous
it might still fall as low as $7.5 before bouncing. But one always looks
for the /spike in volume/ at the bottom to show the transition from
selling to buying. The late spike in volume gives me reasonable
confidence
now that the bottom will be $8.

What a pretty pattern/transient! Driven by uncertainty. A system being
pushed
far from equilibrium by the uncertainty of what the price should become
after
the dilution. I'm tying to demonstrate the /benefits/ of learning how to
quantify ...uncertainty, and it's profound effects on real world complex
dynamic systems.
http://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/qui...eq=7& time=18


Looking for a ten percent gain by the end of the week. Let's see.
Already up a grand. With any luck Wednesday morning might
see a large gap up first thing.

Can't wait!




"Jonathan" wrote in message news:...
(Monday, November 23, 2009 7:06 PM)


Take a look at this absolutely beautiful example of a
panic sell in progress.

http://bigcharts.marke****ch.com/qui...eq=7& time=18

The transient (disturbance) clearly begins Tuesday morning
and the previous close was about $12.25. The transient
is a result of the news that this company just sold 5 million
shares to some big investor at a price of $9.75. A classic sell off
due to stock dilution. Notice how many people thought that
$9.75 was the bottom....oops...it kept on falling past the
/discounted price/ the /large investor/ was just given.
Typically large investors get a 20% or so discount for the
big buy.

So, the big question is, where will the bottom be?

Predicting the future of a real world complex dynamic system, comprised
of hundreds of investors, thousands of employees and dozens of
competitors is perhaps the hardest prediction to make of all

And this particular system is also in the midst of a panic/chaos.

How can we predict the future behavior of a complex dynamic system
whose internal working formulae are unknown? How can we predict
what most would consider a chaotic (panic) situation without any
internal detailed knowledge?

It's easy! On a 2d chart a self organizing system is denoted by a scale
independent slope of -1, with a total fall of 50%. (Why is another post)
Adjusted for real world behavior. Which in this case means a very
reliable
'false bottom' a bit more than halfway down, and a total fall of some
40% as investors tend to anticipate and jump half-off gun.

A 40% drop starting at $12.25 returns a bottom of about $7.35.
But investors also like round numbers.

So I say the bottom will be $7.50.
With a quick bounce back to $8.50, which is where the transient ends.
And the system returns to it's normal behavior, whatever that is.

Give it a couple of days, and we'll see.


s

















 




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