|
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
Stratolaunch is halting development of its own engines and launch
vehicles and focusing on aircraft development to launch Northrop-Grumman boosters. This action, with the accompanying layoff of 50 or so people, is occurring in the wake of Paul Allen's death and may be a sign that without a 'sweetheart' investor the development of their own engines and vehicles, announced last year, is just too expensive for them to sustain. One has to wonder if the same thing could happen to Blue Origin if Jeff Bezos were to drop dead for some reason. That seems less likely, as they're further along in vehicle development, but still possible. -- "We come into the world and take our chances. Fate is just the weight of circumstances. That's the way that Lady Luck dances. Roll the bones...." -- "Roll The Bones", Rush |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message ... Stratolaunch is halting development of its own engines and launch vehicles and focusing on aircraft development to launch Northrop-Grumman boosters. This action, with the accompanying layoff of 50 or so people, is occurring in the wake of Paul Allen's death and may be a sign that without a 'sweetheart' investor the development of their own engines and vehicles, announced last year, is just too expensive for them to sustain. I'm pretty sure that in the near future they'll cease operations completely. There're simply too many competitors out there, a number of which have already established themselves in the market. And then there's the state-sponsored competition from Europe, China and India. The pie is simply too small for all of them to make a living. China is also 'creating' so-called 'commercial' space companies, some of which are SpaceX copy-cats and wannabes. One has to wonder if the same thing could happen to Blue Origin if Jeff Bezos were to drop dead for some reason. That seems less likely, as they're further along in vehicle development, but still possible. I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen. For Bezos, Blue Origin is just a (very expensive) hobby. Without the cash he's putting up Blue Origin would collapse almost overnight. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
"Rocket Man" wrote in message ... "Fred J. McCall" wrote in message ... Stratolaunch is halting development of its own engines and launch vehicles and focusing on aircraft development to launch Northrop-Grumman boosters. This action, with the accompanying layoff of 50 or so people, is occurring in the wake of Paul Allen's death and may be a sign that without a 'sweetheart' investor the development of their own engines and vehicles, announced last year, is just too expensive for them to sustain. I'm pretty sure that in the near future they'll cease operations completely. There're simply too many competitors out there, a number of which have already established themselves in the market. And then there's the state-sponsored competition from Europe, China and India. The pie is simply too small for all of them to make a living. China is also 'creating' so-called 'commercial' space companies, some of which are SpaceX copy-cats and wannabes. One has to wonder if the same thing could happen to Blue Origin if Jeff Bezos were to drop dead for some reason. That seems less likely, as they're further along in vehicle development, but still possible. I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen. For Bezos, Blue Origin is just a (very expensive) hobby. Without the cash he's putting up Blue Origin would collapse almost overnight. In addition, I believe Bezos is not getting his money's worth for the $1 billion a year he's spending on Blue Origin. Yes, there are plans, but New Shepard is still being tested and New Glenn and New Armstrong are nothing put PowerPoint slides at the moment. Very little metal has been cut. I imagine Blue Origin employees are feasting and getting fat on the the money their sugar-daddy's providing. SpaceX wasn't as lavishly funded and got a lot more done. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
"Rocket Man" wrote in message ...
"Rocket Man" wrote in message ... "Fred J. McCall" wrote in message ... Stratolaunch is halting development of its own engines and launch vehicles and focusing on aircraft development to launch Northrop-Grumman boosters. This action, with the accompanying layoff of 50 or so people, is occurring in the wake of Paul Allen's death and may be a sign that without a 'sweetheart' investor the development of their own engines and vehicles, announced last year, is just too expensive for them to sustain. I'm pretty sure that in the near future they'll cease operations completely. There're simply too many competitors out there, a number of which have already established themselves in the market. And then there's the state-sponsored competition from Europe, China and India. The pie is simply too small for all of them to make a living. China is also 'creating' so-called 'commercial' space companies, some of which are SpaceX copy-cats and wannabes. One has to wonder if the same thing could happen to Blue Origin if Jeff Bezos were to drop dead for some reason. That seems less likely, as they're further along in vehicle development, but still possible. I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen. For Bezos, Blue Origin is just a (very expensive) hobby. Without the cash he's putting up Blue Origin would collapse almost overnight. In addition, I believe Bezos is not getting his money's worth for the $1 billion a year he's spending on Blue Origin. Yes, there are plans, but New Shepard is still being tested and New Glenn and New Armstrong are nothing put PowerPoint slides at the moment. Very little metal has been cut. I imagine Blue Origin employees are feasting and getting fat on the the money their sugar-daddy's providing. SpaceX wasn't as lavishly funded and got a lot more done. Perhaps, but I think Jeff's point in another reply is a critical one and if I'm understanding him correctly should be expanded upon: Engine development really is the long pole in the tent. Yeah, it took a lot of tweaking to get Falcon 9 to the current Block 5 design, but, they did that while flying and the engines are the complex part. If BO closes tomorrow as a launch company, they still have contracts for engines. And honestly, could probably start flying New Glenn as a non-reusable pretty soon if they wanted. -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net IT Disaster Response - https://www.amazon.com/Disaster-Resp...dp/1484221834/ |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
"Rocket Man" wrote on Tue, 22 Jan 2019
13:39:11 +0100: "Rocket Man" wrote in message ... "Fred J. McCall" wrote in message ... Stratolaunch is halting development of its own engines and launch vehicles and focusing on aircraft development to launch Northrop-Grumman boosters. This action, with the accompanying layoff of 50 or so people, is occurring in the wake of Paul Allen's death and may be a sign that without a 'sweetheart' investor the development of their own engines and vehicles, announced last year, is just too expensive for them to sustain. I'm pretty sure that in the near future they'll cease operations completely. There're simply too many competitors out there, a number of which have already established themselves in the market. And then there's the state-sponsored competition from Europe, China and India. The pie is simply too small for all of them to make a living. China is also 'creating' so-called 'commercial' space companies, some of which are SpaceX copy-cats and wannabes. One has to wonder if the same thing could happen to Blue Origin if Jeff Bezos were to drop dead for some reason. That seems less likely, as they're further along in vehicle development, but still possible. I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen. For Bezos, Blue Origin is just a (very expensive) hobby. Without the cash he's putting up Blue Origin would collapse almost overnight. In addition, I believe Bezos is not getting his money's worth for the $1 billion a year he's spending on Blue Origin. Yes, there are plans, but New Shepard is still being tested and New Glenn and New Armstrong are nothing put PowerPoint slides at the moment. Very little metal has been cut. The two biggest problems with New Shepard are that it's not an orbital vehicle (it's a really big sounding rocket) and that it looks like a penis (seriously, look at the thing with that outsized payload fairing). If it was anyone else, New Shepard would be operational now. But Blue Origin tests everything to within an inch of its life. They also have a USAF deal for development of New Glenn for DoD launches of heavy payloads, so that should help. They're currently claiming New Glenn will be launching payloads in 2021. Meanwhile, Musk is saying that Starship Mark I has at least a 60% chance of orbital launches in 2020, which means that BFR as a first stage will at least be available for test launches by then. Interesting times. I'm a bit put out at what was essentially a 50 year hiatus in real space flight development, though. I imagine Blue Origin employees are feasting and getting fat on the the money their sugar-daddy's providing. SpaceX wasn't as lavishly funded and got a lot more done. You read the Blue Origin site and they make much of New Glenn being larger than any existing launch system, comparing to Falcon Heavy. The difference, of course, is that Falcon Heavy is an operational launcher and New Glenn is years away. -- "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." --George Bernard Shaw |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
"Greg \(Strider\) Moore" wrote on Tue,
22 Jan 2019 10:48:59 -0500: "Rocket Man" wrote in message ... "Rocket Man" wrote in message ... "Fred J. McCall" wrote in message ... Stratolaunch is halting development of its own engines and launch vehicles and focusing on aircraft development to launch Northrop-Grumman boosters. This action, with the accompanying layoff of 50 or so people, is occurring in the wake of Paul Allen's death and may be a sign that without a 'sweetheart' investor the development of their own engines and vehicles, announced last year, is just too expensive for them to sustain. I'm pretty sure that in the near future they'll cease operations completely. There're simply too many competitors out there, a number of which have already established themselves in the market. And then there's the state-sponsored competition from Europe, China and India. The pie is simply too small for all of them to make a living. China is also 'creating' so-called 'commercial' space companies, some of which are SpaceX copy-cats and wannabes. One has to wonder if the same thing could happen to Blue Origin if Jeff Bezos were to drop dead for some reason. That seems less likely, as they're further along in vehicle development, but still possible. I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen. For Bezos, Blue Origin is just a (very expensive) hobby. Without the cash he's putting up Blue Origin would collapse almost overnight. In addition, I believe Bezos is not getting his money's worth for the $1 billion a year he's spending on Blue Origin. Yes, there are plans, but New Shepard is still being tested and New Glenn and New Armstrong are nothing put PowerPoint slides at the moment. Very little metal has been cut. I imagine Blue Origin employees are feasting and getting fat on the the money their sugar-daddy's providing. SpaceX wasn't as lavishly funded and got a lot more done. Perhaps, but I think Jeff's point in another reply is a critical one and if I'm understanding him correctly should be expanded upon: Engine development really is the long pole in the tent. Yeah, it took a lot of tweaking to get Falcon 9 to the current Block 5 design, but, they did that while flying and the engines are the complex part. If BO closes tomorrow as a launch company, they still have contracts for engines. And honestly, could probably start flying New Glenn as a non-reusable pretty soon if they wanted. They also have a USAF contract to help pay for development of New Glenn. They say it will be flying payloads to orbit in 2021. For it to be reusable, they're going to have to procure and prepare a large merchant vessel for the first stage to recover on. -- "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." --George Bernard Shaw |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
On 1/22/2019 5:53 AM, Jeff Findley wrote:
The final nail in the coffin for Stratolaunch is the fact that SpaceX has proven out a way to recover first stages from orbital launch vehicles with relatively little added development costs (I'd like to see a direct comparison between SpaceX first stage recovery development costs and the development costs for Stratolaunch's carrier aircraft). One has to wonder if the same thing could happen to Blue Origin if Jeff Bezos were to drop dead for some reason. That seems less likely, as they're further along in vehicle development, but still possible. Agreed that it's less likely for Blue Origin because they have already won the engine contract for the Vulcan first stage (BE-4 engine). If such a thing happened to Blue Origin, BE-4 would certainly continue to be developed and built. So Blue Origin with its liquid fueled rocket engines already has much of the development completed (or nearly complete) for their entire launch vehicle. All IMHO, of course. Jeff All very reasonable IMHO, I totally agree. All very good points. I'd also like to see a comparison in development costs between Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic for a sub-orbital hopper excursion vehicle. I don't see a viable path for VG to orbit. So it will be a niche vehicle and if Blue Origin can subsidize hopper flights using profits from orbital trips, probably also a dead end. Dave |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
In article , says...
All very reasonable IMHO, I totally agree. All very good points. I'd also like to see a comparison in development costs between Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic for a sub-orbital hopper excursion vehicle. My guess is that Blue Origin spent a lot more developing their suborbital VTVL than Virgin Galactic has spent on SS1 and SS2. Jeff Bezos has reportedly been giving Blue Origin $1 billion a year in funding (a drop in the bucket for his Amazon fortune). Richard Branson, by comparison, has been a lot more stingy with SS2 funding, IMHO. It's been how many years since SS1 flew and SS2 still isn't flying with paying customers on board. I don't see a viable path for VG to orbit. So it will be a niche vehicle and if Blue Origin can subsidize hopper flights using profits from orbital trips, probably also a dead end. SS2 certainly appears to be a technological dead end. It's an elegant point design that unfortunately doesn't scale to anything faster and higher. Jeff p.s. I know I shouldn't post at 6:10 a.m., but YOLO. -- All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone. These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends, employer, or any organization that I am a member of. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Stratolaunch Out Of Launch Vehicle Business
On 19-01-29 13:10 , Jeff Findley wrote:
p.s. I know I shouldn't post at 6:10 a.m., but YOLO. acronymfinder.com reports 22 meanings for YOLO. I'm unable to decide which one you mean, but You Only Live Online seems more likely than You Oughta Love Orangutans. Just to relieve an itch, please clarify. -- Niklas Holsti Tidorum Ltd niklas holsti tidorum fi . @ . |
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Launch Result of the KIZUNA (WINDS) by the H-IIA Launch Vehicle No. 14 (H-IIA F14) (Forwarded) | Andrew Yee[_1_] | News | 0 | February 23rd 08 03:27 PM |
New Launch Day of the KIZUNA (WINDS) by H-IIA Launch Vehicle No. 14 (Forwarded) | Andrew Yee[_1_] | News | 0 | February 21st 08 03:07 PM |
Launch Postponement of the KIZUNA (WINDS) by H-IIA Launch Vehicle No. 14 (Forwarded) | Andrew Yee[_1_] | News | 0 | February 13th 08 04:49 AM |
Launch Day of the H-IIA Launch Vehicle No. 14/KIZUNA satellite (Forwarded) | Andrew Yee[_1_] | News | 0 | February 13th 08 03:24 AM |
NASA chooses ILS Atlas V launch vehicle to launch Solar Dynamics Observatory | Jacques van Oene | News | 0 | October 1st 04 07:02 PM |