Can Russia invite China to ISS?

Considering that I've not read the full legal framework for ISS, I'm
wondering if China could invite China for a docking with the SM. The
module is russian ground as I understand it, and with Tito's flight in
mind, I wonder what US could do to stop it. This would of course ruin
the partnership, but conserning the current US debate about the future
of human spaceflight and the possible rethrawal from ISS this is an
relevant question.

Sincerely
Bjørn Ove

B. Isaksen wrote:

Considering that I've not read the full legal framework for ISS, I'm
wondering if China could invite China for a docking with the SM. The
module is russian ground as I understand it, and with Tito's flight in
mind, I wonder what US could do to stop it. This would of course ruin
the partnership, but conserning the current US debate about the future
of human spaceflight and the possible rethrawal from ISS this is an
relevant question.

I don't think anything could physically be done to prevent it. The US would
either try to talk Russia and China out of it, or announce their full
support (much more likely, IMO).

IIRC, Shenzhou's docking equipment is APAS, so that would require use of the
US-owned PMA-2 (PMA-3 is currently unusable, and also US-owned) as a
docking location, since their aren't any suitable ports on the Russian
side.

I don't think any such mission is likely for a few years yet: I think China
would like to gain experience with human spaceflight and on-orbit
maneuvering (perhaps try stationkeeping with a discarded Shenzhou orbital
module) before they commit to a demanding ISS mission.

--Chris

Chris Bennetts wrote:
I don't think any such mission is likely for a few years yet: I think China
would like to gain experience with human spaceflight and on-orbit
maneuvering (perhaps try stationkeeping with a discarded Shenzhou orbital
module) before they commit to a demanding ISS mission.

ISS partners would demand that China first demonstrate that its systems are
reliable enough to perform safe docking. This means China will have to do its
own dockings with its own equipment a few times.

In terms of granting permission for China to dock to ISS, it will be
Interesting. I think that China would have to be "sponsored" by at least one
ISS partner, a bit like Tito was sponsored by Russia (in exchange for lots of
money, of course).

And for one Partner to "sponsor" China, China will have to give that partner
something in exchange. And they would need to pay Russia and USA for training
so that they are permitted to enter the station (as did Tito and the african guy).

In terms of docking, the USA has no choice but to allow "manual" docking since
USA doesn't have any automated system. But Russia may be in a position to
demand that any Chinese ship be equipped with either Kurs or the system used
by ATV in order to ensure safe docking to the russian segment.

I feel that for China to be allowed to dock on the USA side, it would require
a diplomatic decision with the USA president telling NASA to allow China to
dock, against NASA's objections.
For China to be allowed to dock to Russia, it only would need to show Russia
enough money.


Depending on how fast China can get itself up to speed, it would be most
interesting if China were to offer its crafts as CRVs to boost station
capacity to 6, saving the USA billions in develooping its own CRV. In the
visible term, I think that this is the only contribution China could make.

But from a diplomatic point of view, it would a spendid coup if China were to
become a contributing partner to ISS with the provision of an essential
service (CRV capacity). Right now, China is very isolated. But such a
membership in ISS would bring China into the select group of space faring
nations with its non trivial contribution.

The chinese government must decide if the goal of its space programme is to be
just a "me too" thing, or whether it will use its space programme to force the
rest of the world to respect and include China. In the former case, it means
China builds its own station. In the later case, it means that China joins ISS.

In the long term, China gains nothing if it builds its own station. But it
gains lots of respect from the world community if it joins the ISS.

Chris Bennetts wrote in
:

B. Isaksen wrote:

Considering that I've not read the full legal framework for ISS, I'm
wondering if China could invite China for a docking with the SM.

I assume you meant "Russia could invite China." I don't believe the ISS
IGAs cover the scenario of a one-shot docking by a non-partner, but to
become a partner requires the full concurrence of all the other partners.

I don't think anything could physically be done to prevent it. The US
would either try to talk Russia and China out of it, or announce their
full support (much more likely, IMO).

Probably true.

IIRC, Shenzhou's docking equipment is APAS, so that would require use
of the US-owned PMA-2 (PMA-3 is currently unusable, and also US-owned)
as a docking location, since their aren't any suitable ports on the
Russian side.

Definitely true.

I don't think any such mission is likely for a few years yet: I think
China would like to gain experience with human spaceflight and
on-orbit maneuvering (perhaps try stationkeeping with a discarded
Shenzhou orbital module) before they commit to a demanding ISS
mission.

I'd go farther: I think the Chinese have no intention of docking to ISS
until they've built their own mini-station. They have a strong independent
streak and like to do things themselves first.

--
JRF

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Ben Sisko wrote in
:

ISS partners would demand that China first demonstrate that its
systems are reliable enough to perform safe docking. This means China
will have to do its own dockings with its own equipment a few times.

The ISS partners would be on very shaky ground if they demanded a more
rigorous testing program for Shenzhou than is currently being done with
ESA's ATV and Japan's HTV.

I feel that for China to be allowed to dock on the USA side, it would
require a diplomatic decision with the USA president telling NASA to
allow China to dock, against NASA's objections.

I find this ludicrous. The president is more likely to oppose a Chinese
docking to ISS than NASA.

And there would be sound US strategic reasons to let the Chinese dock to
ISS, or even take them in as a partner. Even a one-shot docking would allow
US experts their first good look at the inside of a Shenzhou. And if you
think the US would consent to a Shenzhou docking without being allowed
inside to inspect for hazardous materials, think again. Shenzhou is
equipped with an APAS docking mechanism, which is compatible only with the
US segment of ISS. The price of a "no-inspection" demand by China is that
the US hatches stay closed, period.

Likewise, making China an ISS partner would be a good way for the US to
maintain visibility into their program.

Depending on how fast China can get itself up to speed, it would be
most interesting if China were to offer its crafts as CRVs to boost
station capacity to 6, saving the USA billions in develooping its own
CRV. In the visible term, I think that this is the only contribution
China could make.

That would put China in the "critical path" for the station, to which the
US would be strongly opposed.

The chinese government must decide if the goal of its space programme
is to be just a "me too" thing, or whether it will use its space
programme to force the rest of the world to respect and include China.
In the former case, it means China builds its own station. In the
later case, it means that China joins ISS.

In the long term, China gains nothing if it builds its own station.

I disagree. So far, China has left the Shenzhou orbital modules in orbit
for months as reconnaissance spacecraft. Building their own ministation out
of these modules would provide much more capability, and would not require
them to "open up" their program to the US as it would if they joined ISS.
The Chinese would very likely want to pull all the photoreconnaissance
equipment from any Shenzhou destined for ISS.

Mind you, the Chinese may be able to afford running their ministation in
parallel with ISS, unlike the Russians. I doubt it, but it's not
impossible.


--
JRF

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On 17 Oct 2003 19:18:42 -0700, (B. Isaksen)
wrote:

Considering that I've not read the full legal framework for ISS, I'm
wondering if China could invite China for a docking with the SM. The
module is russian ground as I understand it, and with Tito's flight in
mind, I wonder what US could do to stop it. This would of course ruin
the partnership, but conserning the current US debate about the future
of human spaceflight and the possible rethrawal from ISS this is an
relevant question.

The Chinese would have to allow at least the Russians, and probably
all of the ISS partners, to get a good look at Shenzou (inside and
out) before it would be allowed to dock at ISS. Considering the cloak
of secrecy China has around Shenzou (not even showing the launch live
on TV), I find this highly unlikely.

Brian

"Jorge R. Frank" wrote:
The ISS partners would be on very shaky ground if they demanded a more
rigorous testing program for Shenzhou than is currently being done with
ESA's ATV and Japan's HTV.

ESA has been in space for quite some time already. And both ESA and Japan have
"opened their books" to the ISS partners and cooperated in designs. Think of
it more as a cooperating development, with Japan probably getting a lot of
help from NASA and ESA to make sure it does things right.

China, at this point, is truly the new kid on the block with its systems
designed/modified by itself without consultations with ISS partners. So there
s good reason at this point in time to treat china differently than ESA and Japan.

I feel that for China to be allowed to dock on the USA side, it would
require a diplomatic decision with the USA president telling NASA to
allow China to dock, against NASA's objections.

I find this ludicrous. The president is more likely to oppose a Chinese
docking to ISS than NASA.

Do you seriously think NASA would be comfortable with an "unknown" Chinese
craft docking and potentially damaging PMA2 ? They were affraid Tito would
jeoperdize the USA segment and he came in with a proven approved spacecraft.

And there would be sound US strategic reasons to let the Chinese dock to
ISS, or even take them in as a partner. Even a one-shot docking would allow
US experts their first good look at the inside of a Shenzhou.

But this is more a question of spying than NASA itself. NASA would object on
technical grounds and safety, but would be overriden by the whitehouse because
of the potential information that would benefit certain departments of the government.

The thing is that for such a chinese mission to ISS, The inspections wouldn't
be in space, they would be on the ground well before it is launched.

inside to inspect for hazardous materials, think again. Shenzhou is
equipped with an APAS docking mechanism, which is compatible only with the
US segment of ISS.

Since Shenzhou is not re-usable, what prevents China from building a few
orbital modules with the russian docking hardware and software ?

Likewise, making China an ISS partner would be a good way for the US to
maintain visibility into their program.

Making China a partner is quite different from allowing a chinese visit to ISS.

That would put China in the "critical path" for the station, to which the
US would be strongly opposed.

It doesn't have to be a critical path to the USA. Currently, the USA has its
shuttles and reluctantly Soyuz as part of critical path. It can remain that
way. It can choose not to increase its crewing of station if it decides that a
china provided CRV is not reliable etc. But other partners may decide to take
China up on its offer and make use of the extra crewing capacity that a
Shenzhou could bring.

And when/if the USA does produce some CRV, then the USA can increase its
crewing and perhaps force China to stop using Shenzhou as CRV and just allow
China 10 day visits.

And think of the 0-g experience of eating rice with chop sticks. (which
implies that China would insist a rice cooker be installed on station).

The Chinese would very likely want to pull all the photoreconnaissance
equipment from any Shenzhou destined for ISS.

Duh ! They wouldn't pull all that equipment out. If each capsule is built for
each launch, then a capsule destined to ISS would be built with a civilian
configuration and not a military config.

Mind you, the Chinese may be able to afford running their ministation in
parallel with ISS, unlike the Russians. I doubt it, but it's not
impossible.

In my mind, their mini station is just a necessary step for China to prove
itself as a capable space faring nation in order to be accepted in the various
"clubs" of space faring nations.

I wouldn't be surprised to see India next to want to become space faring.
(Just to spite Pakistan).

Ben Sisko wrote in
:

"Jorge R. Frank" wrote:
The ISS partners would be on very shaky ground if they demanded a
more rigorous testing program for Shenzhou than is currently being
done with ESA's ATV and Japan's HTV.

ESA has been in space for quite some time already. And both ESA and
Japan have "opened their books" to the ISS partners and cooperated in
designs. Think of it more as a cooperating development, with Japan
probably getting a lot of help from NASA and ESA to make sure it does
things right.

China, at this point, is truly the new kid on the block with its
systems designed/modified by itself without consultations with ISS
partners. So there s good reason at this point in time to treat china
differently than ESA and Japan.

Differently, but not necessarily more rigorously, provided that China
provides the US the same visibility into their program that ESA and Japan
have done. I do find that unlikely.

I feel that for China to be allowed to dock on the USA side, it
would require a diplomatic decision with the USA president telling
NASA to allow China to dock, against NASA's objections.

I find this ludicrous. The president is more likely to oppose a
Chinese docking to ISS than NASA.

Do you seriously think NASA would be comfortable with an "unknown"
Chinese craft docking and potentially damaging PMA2 ?

I did not say NASA would be "comfortable" with it. I said NASA would be
less likely to oppose it than the president.

And there would be sound US strategic reasons to let the Chinese dock
to ISS, or even take them in as a partner. Even a one-shot docking
would allow US experts their first good look at the inside of a
Shenzhou.

But this is more a question of spying than NASA itself. NASA would
object on technical grounds and safety, but would be overriden by the
whitehouse because of the potential information that would benefit
certain departments of the government.

Hypothetically, if the president invited China to dock with ISS, he would
leave to NASA to define the details of the hoops the Chinese would have to
jump to pass safety concerns.

Now, if hypothetically the Chinese complained about that and the
administration pressured NASA to relax their safety standards, that would
be another matter (and is exactly what happened with the Russians and ISS
during the Clinton administration).

The thing is that for such a chinese mission to ISS, The inspections
wouldn't be in space, they would be on the ground well before it is
launched.

Well, Duh! Either way, the details of the spacecraft become known to the
US.

inside to inspect for hazardous materials, think again. Shenzhou is
equipped with an APAS docking mechanism, which is compatible only
with the US segment of ISS.

Since Shenzhou is not re-usable, what prevents China from building a
few orbital modules with the russian docking hardware and software ?

Nothing, except cost.

Likewise, making China an ISS partner would be a good way for the US
to maintain visibility into their program.

Making China a partner is quite different from allowing a chinese
visit to ISS.

Well, Duh! I'm just pointing out that the US would reap some strategic
benefit from doing so. Whether that will offset the disadvantages is a
question for the administration.

That would put China in the "critical path" for the station, to which
the US would be strongly opposed.

It doesn't have to be a critical path to the USA.

It certainly would be, once there's an actual Shenzhou up there with actual
crew members depending on it.

The Chinese would very likely want to pull all the
photoreconnaissance equipment from any Shenzhou destined for ISS.

Duh ! They wouldn't pull all that equipment out. If each capsule is
built for each launch, then a capsule destined to ISS would be built
with a civilian configuration and not a military config.

Of course. That of course means that the opportunity cost of one civilian
Shenzhou is the loss of one military Shenzhou flight. It remains to be seen
whether the Chinese will be willing to pay that opportunity cost.

Mind you, the Chinese may be able to afford running their ministation
in parallel with ISS, unlike the Russians. I doubt it, but it's not
impossible.

In my mind, their mini station is just a necessary step for China to
prove itself as a capable space faring nation in order to be accepted
in the various "clubs" of space faring nations.

Possibly. But the ministation will come first, and it will likely not be
operational much before the 2008 Olympics. So the question of China's
participation in ISS is a long way off.

I wouldn't be surprised to see India next to want to become space
faring. (Just to spite Pakistan).

Or to spite China. India and China are rivals, too... just read India's
press reaction to Shenzhou 5.


--
JRF

Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail,
check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and
think one step ahead of IBM.

Chris Bennetts wrote in message ...

IIRC, Shenzhou's docking equipment is APAS, so that would require use of the
US-owned PMA-2 (PMA-3 is currently unusable, and also US-owned) as a
docking location, since their aren't any suitable ports on the Russian
side.


This is actually not true. The Russian Segment Service Module zenith
port is hybrid, which is field replaceable by an APAS (meaning that
the current cone adaptor could be changed out - on orbit - into a
functional APAS.

On or about 18 Oct 2003 19:25:43 GMT, Jorge R. Frank made the sensational claim that:
Or to spite China. India and China are rivals, too... just read India's
press reaction to Shenzhou 5.

Link?
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