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Past Perfect, Future Misleading



 
 
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  #21  
Old August 29th 03, 12:55 PM
Duncan Young
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Default Past Perfect, Future Misleading

Pat Flannery wrote in message ...
Rand Simberg wrote:

I have some more commentary on the Gehman report, and why we should
not build "the" next generation launch system.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,95930,00.html



It's an interesting article, but I think that the analogy between the
development of commercial aviation and space commercialization is
stretching it a bit...back in the early teens and twenties it was

snip

*Shorter Pat Flannery*

The relevent equation for X-prize is m*g*h

The relevent equation for orbital flight is 1/2*m*v^2

There is a qualitative difference.

*Bonus Shorter Pat Flannery*

Transonic trains would have been nifty, if the whole flight thing didn't work out.

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  #22  
Old August 29th 03, 02:00 PM
Al Jackson
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Default Past Perfect, Future Misleading

h (Rand Simberg) wrote in message . ..
On 29 Aug 2003 00:45:13 GMT, in a place far, far away,

(Al Jackson) made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to
indicate that:

(Rand Simberg) wrote in message . ..
I have some more commentary on the Gehman report, and why we should
not build "the" next generation launch system.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,95930,00.html


Past Perfect, Future Misleading


NASA plans to make continuing investments in “next generation
launch technology,” with the hope that those investments will
enable a decision by the end of this decade on what that next
generation launch vehicle should be. This is a worthy goal, and should
be pursued.


My concern is that .... you ... and many others seem to want to live
in the 19th century.


??

No, sorry, we didn't have the technology in the 19th century to do
space.

The World has changed, there should be no Orbital Space Plane, there
should be the 'International Orbital Space Plane', ....


Yes, right. Not bad enough to have a single launch system for the
nation--let's have one for the world!

As somebody said:

"The United States is the only country , on the face of the earth, to
go from Frontier to Decadence, without going through Enlightenment ."


Yes, somebody who was an ignorant idiot.


Again, your extremely well reasoned and elaborated comment is only
exceeded by your lightning quick response!

  #23  
Old August 29th 03, 02:20 PM
stmx3
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Default Past Perfect, Future Misleading

Chuck Stewart wrote:

By the time you get to it you'll haveve spent a good portion of it.

By the time you haul back a few thousand tons to Earth and safely
land it you'll have spent most of the rest of it.

By the time you get paid for the gold you brought back word of the
gold's arrival will have flattened the gold market... and you'll be
broke.

Industrial materials in space will stay in space to be used in
space by folks who work in space.

And that's what a gold asteroid would become... gold foil, gold
conductors etc.

The only exception would be materials that are _only_ produced or
procured offworld... that are wanted on Earth.


All interesting analyses...blows my whole idea out of the water. Now,
if and when we go to Mars, we can describe the cost in "solid gold
asteroid" equivalents. I would guess the asteroid would be smaller,
based on MARS being closer than the belt. Maybe I'll look at the
current price of gold and the expected cost to Mars and see what I get
in asteroidal equivalent.

  #24  
Old August 29th 03, 02:35 PM
Pat Flannery
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Default Past Perfect, Future Misleading



Joann Evans wrote:

I seiously doubt that anyone would privately operate the shuttles on
an economic basis.

It would take a very rich individual, with a dream that concerns
mankind's future....this is a job for Mr. Hugo Drax.

Concorde barely cut it, in known markets. (albeit
limited by sonic boom restrictions to mostly over-water routes) The
orbiters just cost too much to operate.



Mr. Drax would look beyond the bottom line when it came to Shuttle
operations...just look how he turned around the fortunes of that small
Venetian glass works; and his interest in preservation of endangered
species of South American plants is well know.

Patrick Stavos Flannery

  #27  
Old August 29th 03, 03:36 PM
Pat Flannery
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Default Past Perfect, Future Misleading



Duncan Young wrote:



It's an interesting article, but I think that the analogy between the
development of commercial aviation and space commercialization is
stretching it a bit...back in the early teens and twenties it was


snip

*Shorter Pat Flannery*

The relevent equation for X-prize is m*g*h

The relevent equation for orbital flight is 1/2*m*v^2

There is a qualitative difference.

*Bonus Shorter Pat Flannery*

Transonic trains would have been nifty, if the whole flight thing didn't work out.

Don't forget "Cyclops"- the Big Bus.


__________________________
How close am I?



Closer than you appear to be in the driver's side mirror...

Pat

  #28  
Old August 29th 03, 03:50 PM
Jan C. Vorbrüggen
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Default Past Perfect, Future Misleading

Find a solid gold asteroid...then you'll have the killer app. Space
transportation would leap a century into the future.


By the time you get to it you'll haveve spent a good portion of it.

By the time you haul back a few thousand tons to Earth and safely
land it you'll have spent most of the rest of it.

By the time you get paid for the gold you brought back word of the
gold's arrival will have flattened the gold market... and you'll be
broke.


ISTR somebody mentioning a paper, about three or so years back, that took
these effects into account, and concluded that such an enterprise would
still be profitable under reasonable assumption (even about the cost of
getting to the asteroid etc.) Henry?

Jan

  #29  
Old August 29th 03, 04:30 PM
Hop David
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Default Past Perfect, Future Misleading



Chuck Stewart wrote:
On Thu, 28 Aug 2003 19:50:07 +0000, stmx3 wrote:


Hop David wrote:



Find a solid gold asteroid...then you'll have the killer app. Space
transportation would leap a century into the future.


Chuck, please be more careful with your attributions. stmx3 proposed the
gold asteroid, not I (Hop David).



By the time you get to it you'll haveve spent a good portion of it.

By the time you haul back a few thousand tons to Earth and safely
land it you'll have spent most of the rest of it.

By the time you get paid for the gold you brought back word of the
gold's arrival will have flattened the gold market... and you'll be
broke.

Industrial materials in space will stay in space to be used in
space by folks who work in space.

And that's what a gold asteroid would become... gold foil, gold
conductors etc.

The only exception would be materials that are _only_ produced or
procured offworld... that are wanted on Earth.



I agree with most of the above but believe there's another possibility.
If an accessible, volatile rich asteroid is found, delta V might become
much cheaper. The asteroid's water and fuel could be exported to a depot
in earth orbit. Then it would be much cheaper to excape LEO. It would
also become much less expensive to export stuff to earth from various
locations.

I happen to believe "The Killer App" will be an extinct comet (Nereus or
1979 VA? Maybe even Deimos - it possibly has interior volatiles and is
easier to export from than Mars). Then when delta v is much cheaper,
metal rich asteroids will also become Killer Apps.

Hop
http://clowder.net/hop/index.html

  #30  
Old August 29th 03, 05:10 PM
Chuck Stewart
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Default Past Perfect, Future Misleading

On Fri, 29 Aug 2003 15:30:06 +0000, Hop David wrote:

snip much previous

Chuck, please be more careful with your attributions. stmx3 proposed the
gold asteroid, not I (Hop David).


How'd you get left in there?

I happen to believe "The Killer App" will be an extinct comet (Nereus or
1979 VA? Maybe even Deimos - it possibly has interior volatiles and is
easier to export from than Mars). Then when delta v is much cheaper,
metal rich asteroids will also become Killer Apps.


Hmmm... iffy, but possible.

Hop


--
Chuck Stewart
"Anime-style catgirls: Threat? Menace? Or just studying algebra?"

 




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