When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

"M. Scott" wrote in message
...
Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?


The 'return to flight' date of December is, IMHO, partially influenced by
the fact that Shenzhou will also fly around that time. Maybe NASA will try
to push up the date to make sure the Shuttle flies before Shenzhou. Let's
see how it plays out.

Ultimate Buu wrote:

[snip]

The 'return to flight' date of December is, IMHO, partially influenced by
the fact that Shenzhou will also fly around that time. Maybe NASA will try
to push up the date to make sure the Shuttle flies before Shenzhou. Let's
see how it plays out.

Don't forget the *reason* the shuttle is grounded. The last thing
NASA needs is the perception that it cut any corners to beat anyone just
now.

Mr. Carmack wrote:

I have good confidence that we will conduct a manned flight in a full
size vehicle this year. It will be at the limit of what we can do
without a launch license -- 200,000 lb-sec of total impulse.

Weather permitting, our vehicle is going to do a drop test from under
a cargo helicopter in a couple days to test the main canopy and crush
cone combination in real world use (ballasted to full
X-Prize weight).

That's great news. I've always been a fan of your company and its
"build-and-test" philosophy. I'm curious, how high will you
200000lb-sec flight go? Will it be X-Prize altitude, or will you have
to install bigger engines to go to that height?

Also, I have a question. I'm under the impression that your nose cone
has small holes to relieve building air pressure during the landing. If
so, how do the holes affect re-entry? Are they a problem or not?

None of them, in my opinion, will win the X-Prize this year.

I agree. The initial timeline from White Sands Missile Range for our
proposed launch operations from there (everything that requires a
launch license) had the expected completion time for first launch in
2005, after the X-Prize expired. They say we can likely
compress some
parts of it, but there is still a lot of crap to wade through.

Well, I wish you luck in compressing the schedule. How exactly can you
do that?
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Eric Lee Green wrote:

Let's face it, the majority of the American sheeple care only about a) how much
money they're making, b), what's for dinner, c) what's on the boob tube
tonight. Anything else is irrelevant to their daily lives, they believe.

The Mars mission *isn't* relevant to their daily lives, however superior
it makes you imagine yourself to be to think otherwise.

Paul

On Thu, 3 Jul 2003 10:47:32 +0200, in a place far, far away, "Ultimate
Buu" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

The 'return to flight' date of December is, IMHO, partially influenced by
the fact that Shenzhou will also fly around that time.

I'd be very surprised if that were a consideration. The return to
flight date is driven by a desire to return to flight as soon as
possible, to get ISS back to "normal" operations.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

Paul F. Dietz wrote:

Eric Lee Green wrote:

Let's face it, the majority of the American sheeple care only about a) how
much
money they're making, b), what's for dinner, c) what's on the boob tube
tonight. Anything else is irrelevant to their daily lives, they believe.

The Mars mission *isn't* relevant to their daily lives, however superior
it makes you imagine yourself to be to think otherwise.

And the Shenzhou and SpaceShip One are just as irrelevant to their daily lives,
however superior it makes you imagine yourself to think otherwise. Nobody will
care if those things fly before the Shuttle does. Hell, you ask Joe Sheeple
whether he cares about the Shenzhou flying before the shuttle and he'll say
"Shen-wha?!".

--
Eric Lee Green



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And the Shenzhou and SpaceShip One are just as irrelevant
to their daily lives...

Well, I certainly agree that the Shenzhou probably is irrelevant
to the average Joe -- unless it is the start of a massive Chinese space
program which will threaten the U.S.'s perceived "space superiority" in
very visible ways. But that's doubtful.
I think that SpaceShipOne is a lot more relevant. In early 2001
when there was a lot of talk on Dennis Tito, one common public feeling
was a disconnect, i.e. "so what if a billionaire can go into space? What
about me?"
Now Rutan will not be selling rides on SS1 but if he did, it would
be about $40k/ticket (see the AWST article). Of course, most
middle-class Americans still can't afford that. But it's a giant leap
in the right direction. And once the ticket prices come down further
and we see hundreds, even thousands, of flights a year, outer space, I
think, will be a lot more relevant to the average Joe.
Just look at Lindbergh. Aviation became a lot more relevant to the
average American after his flight, no longer the domain of a few.

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"M. Scott" wrote in message
...
Mr. Simberg,


Because there's no relationship between what NASA does, and what the
Chinese or Burt Rutan does.

I would respectfully disagree. NASA, China, and Rutan are all currently
trying to send people into space. Of course, it's not quite that
simple, but the relationship is there.

They've never claimed to be in a race
with either.

I completely agree. But ignoring your "competition" doesn't make the
facts disappear. The TV screens will show taikonauts and test pilots in
space, but not astronauts.

Heck, TV screens rarely show astronauts now.

Believe it or not, even with the current standdown, NASA flying astronauts
has become rather "routine."

Which is as it should be.

Besides, as far as Rutan is concerned, it's ballastic, sub-orbital.
Completely different thing.




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"M. Scott" wrote in
:

Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

NASA won't be embarrassed by Shenzhou any more than they were embarrassed
by the Soviets launching Mir and Energia during the post-Challenger
standdown. I doubt the public will take much notice, either. It means the
Chinese have caught up to where the US and USSR were in the mid-60s, and
with purchased technology to boot.

I predict Sean O'Keefe will send congratulations to the Chinese when
Shenzhou launches, and to whoever wins the X-Prize. And he will most
likely be sincere about it, too.


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"Ultimate Buu" wrote in
:

The 'return to flight' date of December is, IMHO, partially influenced
by the fact that Shenzhou will also fly around that time. Maybe NASA
will try to push up the date to make sure the Shuttle flies before
Shenzhou.

Ludicrous. The December date is not driven by Shenzhou (or Beagle-2, or any
of the other external factors that conspiracy-mongers have come up with).
It is merely a placeholder date to keep the ground teams working until a
more realistic date is announced.

The only external factor driving the return-to-flight date is the
consumables situation on ISS, and NASA's desire to minimize the number of
Progress flights they have to ask the Russians for.

There is no way in hell that NASA will try to push up the date. It is far
more likely to slip into March or April, based on the need to fix the SRB
"bolt catcher" design, the need to remove Atlantis' RCC panels for non-
destructive inspection, the need to develop an RCC repair kit, and the
availability of daytime launch windows to meet the CAIB's ascent imaging
recommendation.

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