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Musk plans for mars
On Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 3:41:42 PM UTC-4, JF Mezei wrote:
Musk outlined some plans for mars colonisation. He says the plan is to bring transport costs down by many orders of magnitudes so that the ticket prices are closer to the cost of a home (so paople can move to Mars easily). Musk plans to build mega rocket (bigger than Saturn 5) with 100 passengers per trip. Musk looking at expanding to 200. Plan is to send 1 million people to Mars. Rocket should have ~10,000(t) compared to Saturn 5 ~3000 (t) Stage 1 would have 128MN of thurst at sea level, 42 Raptor engines. Landing the stage 1 back would cost about 7% of fuel. (down from current use). Of the 42 engines, 7 in the centre would be gimballed, the rest would be fixed. 450 tonnes of cargo to Mars. Trip time caries betwene 80 and 140 days depending on year/planet alignment. To achieve this, there are some concepts that need to be implemented: Full reusability Since it takes so long for the return trip, Musk says about 12 re-uses for the interplanetary ship lasting about 20-30 years. In-orbit refuelling The interplanetary ship is launched without fuel, orbits earth after launch. Second launch bring up fuel, docks to the first ship to transfer fuel and then interplanetary ship departs. Tanker version of spacecraft will launch 3 to 5 times to transfer enough fuel for each interplanetary ship and for each launch window, there would be many interplanetary ship launched and fueled (so the launch pad would be busy launching them and the refueling ones. Produce propellant on Mars Loading propellant on earth for the return trip from mars costs way too much. Right choice of propellant This one is simple: methane. Hydrogen could also be produced on mars but very hard to store and requires much bigger tanks. Musk wants to R&D so that carbon fibre can be used for tanks. |
#2
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Musk plans for mars
I think with his two stage RLV design 400 tons is more achievable, but if he can get his structure fraction down to 3.5% from 4.2% - he can get another 50 tons out of the deal.
They will likely go to Mars in stasis, in large fleets orbited over the entire synodic period. That way capital utilisation is maximised. Meanwhile, 'live' crews - mostly doctors - visit those in stasis. They're awakened on a schedule every 28 days - and surgeries cosmetic and other can be scheduled as well. People spend a day or two in awakened state - and assessed physically and psychologically. In this way over a 90 day to 120 day trip - people can enjoy a very fine luxury experience - at minimal cost in terms of weight or money. http://www.sei.aero/eng/papers/uploa...2010162015.pdf This was presented at the 66th IAF conference - and Musk was there. Just saying. 200 t - 300 kW - 100 people. So, 400 t 600 kW - 200 people - is his payload. On Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 11:54:41 AM UTC+13, bob haller wrote: On Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 3:41:42 PM UTC-4, JF Mezei wrote: Musk outlined some plans for mars colonisation. He says the plan is to bring transport costs down by many orders of magnitudes so that the ticket prices are closer to the cost of a home (so paople can move to Mars easily). Musk plans to build mega rocket (bigger than Saturn 5) with 100 passengers per trip. Musk looking at expanding to 200. Plan is to send 1 million people to Mars. Rocket should have ~10,000(t) compared to Saturn 5 ~3000 (t) Stage 1 would have 128MN of thurst at sea level, 42 Raptor engines. Landing the stage 1 back would cost about 7% of fuel. (down from current use). Of the 42 engines, 7 in the centre would be gimballed, the rest would be fixed. 450 tonnes of cargo to Mars. Trip time caries betwene 80 and 140 days depending on year/planet alignment. To achieve this, there are some concepts that need to be implemented: Full reusability Since it takes so long for the return trip, Musk says about 12 re-uses for the interplanetary ship lasting about 20-30 years. In-orbit refuelling The interplanetary ship is launched without fuel, orbits earth after launch. Second launch bring up fuel, docks to the first ship to transfer fuel and then interplanetary ship departs. Tanker version of spacecraft will launch 3 to 5 times to transfer enough fuel for each interplanetary ship and for each launch window, there would be many interplanetary ship launched and fueled (so the launch pad would be busy launching them and the refueling ones. Produce propellant on Mars Loading propellant on earth for the return trip from mars costs way too much. Right choice of propellant This one is simple: methane. Hydrogen could also be produced on mars but very hard to store and requires much bigger tanks. Musk wants to R&D so that carbon fibre can be used for tanks. |
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Musk plans for mars
William Mook wrote:
I think with his two stage RLV design 400 tons is more achievable, but if he can get his structure fraction down to 3.5% from 4.2% - he can get another 50 tons out of the deal. You have no idea what his actual structure fraction will be, so so far you're just pulling numbers out of your ass. They will likely go to Mars in stasis, in large fleets orbited over the entire synodic period. That way capital utilisation is maximised. Meanwhile, 'live' crews - mostly doctors - visit those in stasis. They're awakened on a schedule every 28 days - and surgeries cosmetic and other can be scheduled as well. People spend a day or two in awakened state - and assessed physically and psychologically. In this way over a 90 day to 120 day trip - people can enjoy a very fine luxury experience - at minimal cost in terms of weight or money. Except that's not what he says he's going to do or how he says it will work. Musk plans on sending people long before 'stasis' is ready. Perhaps you should let Musk talk for Musk and stop making **** up? http://www.sei.aero/eng/papers/uploa...2010162015.pdf This was presented at the 66th IAF conference - and Musk was there. Just saying. Except he was detailing things about his vision for Mars long before that conference. No doubt lots of things were presented that he'll make no use of at all. 200 t - 300 kW - 100 people. So, 400 t 600 kW - 200 people - is his payload. Numbers straight from Mookie's ass. -- "Ordinarily he is insane. But he has lucid moments when he is only stupid." -- Heinrich Heine |
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