Opening the High Frontier of Space

Many years ago, the Astronomer Royal of Great Britain Richard vander
Riet Woolley famously declared, "Space travel is utter bilge." It was
a statement that haunted him for the rest of his life. The current
Astronomer Royal, Lord Martin Rees, seems to have repeated the folly
of his predecessor, albeit with a modern twist and caveat.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art..._of_space.html

On 14 Feb, 12:36, "Mark R. Whittington"
wrote:
Many years ago, the Astronomer Royal of Great Britain Richard vander
Riet Woolley famously declared, "Space travel is utter bilge." It was
a statement that haunted him for the rest of his life. The current
Astronomer Royal, Lord Martin Rees, seems to have repeated the folly
of his predecessor, albeit with a modern twist and caveat.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art..._the_high_fron...

There was one significant view of Lord Rees which you failed to
mention. He is NOT like his predescessor. Space travel is NOT utter
bilge. The opinion I am drawing your attention to concerns the
question of risk and cost structure. Professor Rees talks about small
micro satellites and the NASA cost structure.

The NASA structure is realy an aerospace structure. Loo seats on
aircraft for examplecost an extraordinary amount of money. This is
because of the certification proceedure required. Lord Rees clearly
thinks that if micro spacecraft were constructed at consumer prices -
no aerospace certification, they might go wrong more often, but would
on balance achieve more.

Also the fact is that if you could use cannibalization on a mission,
microcraft would in fact be more reliable overall than a single
aerospace certified system.

Lord Rees does NOT say that no one should ever go to Mars, indeed he
looks forward to adventurers on the Martian surface. He does say that
the Bush plans look incredibly expensive, something which I think
everyone has to agree with.

You all know my bias by now! I think the next stage has to be sending
a swarm (perhaps certified in a different way) of spacecraft which can
cannibalize. A large fragmented telescope is a good example of a
cannibalisable system.

With humans there are moral objections to uncertified systems, unless
you could build in a very high degree of redundancy.


- Ian Parker

"Mark R. Whittington" wrote in message
...
Many years ago, the Astronomer Royal of Great Britain Richard vander
Riet Woolley famously declared, "Space travel is utter bilge." It was
a statement that haunted him for the rest of his life. The current
Astronomer Royal, Lord Martin Rees, seems to have repeated the folly
of his predecessor, albeit with a modern twist and caveat.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art..._of_space.html

I've often tried to imagine the cost of opening (colonizing) the space
frontier versus the coast of never managing to get the job done. I find that
in this comparison there is no cost attached to opening. None! All the real
cost is attached to counting the wrong costs and never managing to get the
job done. All of it, and relentlessly becoming more catastrophic all the
time!

GLB

On 17 Feb, 08:37, "G. L. Bradford" wrote:
"Mark R. Whittington" wrote in ...

Many years ago, the Astronomer Royal of Great Britain Richard vander
Riet Woolley famously declared, "Space travel is utter bilge." It was
a statement that haunted him for the rest of his life. The current
Astronomer Royal, Lord Martin Rees, seems to have repeated the folly
of his predecessor, albeit with a modern twist and caveat.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art..._the_high_fron...

* I've often tried to imagine the cost of opening (colonizing) the space
frontier versus the coast of never managing to get the job done. I find that
in this comparison there is no cost attached to opening. None! All the real
cost is attached to counting the wrong costs and never managing to get the
job done. All of it, and relentlessly becoming more catastrophic all the
time!

GLB

There is also the question of doing things in the cheapest way. To me
the great weakness of the Bush vision is that he is putting the
presence of Man on the Moon and Mars above everthing else. Go to the
Moon - take everything from the Earth. Go to Mars, well perhaps we
might just take hydrogen for the return journey and manufacture
methane and Oxygen from Martian CO2.

If we were to put the utilization of space resourcres first. Lets look
at the cheapest way of developing space resources we might well be
onto a better bet. If asteroids became an economic source of
platinoids to take an example, there would be no question about
political cuts. The whole thing would be self sustaining with pure
capitalism.

As I said, Lord Rees says " no humans at the costs suggested", NOT no
humans ever. I personally beieve that robotic development of resources
can be the only possible route to realistic costs.


- Ian Parker

Ian Parker wrote:
:
:If asteroids became an economic source of
latinoids to take an example, there would be no question about
olitical cuts. The whole thing would be self sustaining with pure
:capitalism.
:

Nothing like a tautological statement. What's funny is that he
doesn't even realize he's doing it.

If cows could fly, we'd all carry umbrellas when we went outside.

--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

On 17 Feb, 15:24, Fred J. McCall wrote:
Ian Parker wrote:

:
:If asteroids became an economic source of
latinoids to take an example, there would be no question about
olitical cuts. The whole thing would be self sustaining with pure
:capitalism.
:

Nothing like a tautological statement. *What's funny is that he
doesn't even realize he's doing it.

If cows could fly, we'd all carry umbrellas when we went outside.

--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
*territory."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * --G. Behn

It is indeed tautological, but it is still worth pointing out.

- Ian Parker

Ian Parker wrote:

:On 17 Feb, 15:24, Fred J. McCall wrote:
: Ian Parker wrote:
:
: :
: :If asteroids became an economic source of
: latinoids to take an example, there would be no question about
: olitical cuts. The whole thing would be self sustaining with pure
: :capitalism.
: :
:
: Nothing like a tautological statement. *What's funny is that he
: doesn't even realize he's doing it.
:
: If cows could fly, we'd all carry umbrellas when we went outside.
:
:
:It is indeed tautological, but it is still worth pointing out.
:

Not really, no. Boiled down to its essence, what you've said is "If I
find gold in my back yard it's a gold mine".

Meaningless noise.

--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

On 22 Feb, 14:18, Fred J. McCall wrote:
Ian Parker wrote:

:On 17 Feb, 15:24, Fred J. McCall wrote:
: Ian Parker wrote:
:
: :
: :If asteroids became an economic source of
: latinoids to take an example, there would be no question about
: olitical cuts. The whole thing would be self sustaining with pure
: :capitalism.
: :
:
: Nothing like a tautological statement. *What's funny is that he
: doesn't even realize he's doing it.
:
: If cows could fly, we'd all carry umbrellas when we went outside.
:
:
:It is indeed tautological, but it is still worth pointing out.
:

Not really, no. *Boiled down to its essence, what you've said is "If I
find gold in my back yard it's a gold mine".

Meaningless noise.

--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
*territory."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * --G. Behn

What I have said is you need Gold, Platinum or something which would
make a profit for private enterprise to be interested. You get private
space by demonstrating there is money to be made, not simly by pouring
in massive government subsisies.

Ceres Platinum might just work. It is at least worth debating. You
need a requirement for Pt. You need electric cars.


- Ian Parker

Ian Parker wrote:

:On 22 Feb, 14:18, Fred J. McCall wrote:
: Ian Parker wrote:
:
: :On 17 Feb, 15:24, Fred J. McCall wrote:
: : Ian Parker wrote:
: :
: : :
: : :If asteroids became an economic source of
: : latinoids to take an example, there would be no question about
: : olitical cuts. The whole thing would be self sustaining with pure
: : :capitalism.
: : :
: :
: : Nothing like a tautological statement. *What's funny is that he
: : doesn't even realize he's doing it.
: :
: : If cows could fly, we'd all carry umbrellas when we went outside.
: :
: :
: :It is indeed tautological, but it is still worth pointing out.
: :
:
: Not really, no. *Boiled down to its essence, what you've said is "If I
: find gold in my back yard it's a gold mine".
:
: Meaningless noise.
:
: --
: "Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
: *territory."
: * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * --G. Behn
:
:What I have said is you need Gold, Platinum or something which would
:make a profit for private enterprise to be interested.
:

No, that's not what you said at all.

:
:You get private
:space by demonstrating there is money to be made, not simly by pouring
:in massive government subsisies.
:
:Ceres Platinum might just work. It is at least worth debating. You
:need a requirement for Pt. You need electric cars.
:

Yes, Ceres platinum might just work IF there is platinum and Ceres and
IF the price for platinum is enough to make going there, getting it,
and bringing it back profitable.

In other words, it will be profitable if it is profitable.

See what I mean?

--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

On 23 Feb, 23:02, Fred J. McCall wrote:
Ian Parker wrote:

:On 22 Feb, 14:18, Fred J. McCall wrote:
: Ian Parker wrote:
:
: :On 17 Feb, 15:24, Fred J. McCall wrote:
: : Ian Parker wrote:
: :
: : :
: : :If asteroids became an economic source of
: : latinoids to take an example, there would be no question about
: : olitical cuts. The whole thing would be self sustaining with pure
: : :capitalism.
: : :
: :
: : Nothing like a tautological statement. *What's funny is that he
: : doesn't even realize he's doing it.
: :
: : If cows could fly, we'd all carry umbrellas when we went outside.
: :
: :
: :It is indeed tautological, but it is still worth pointing out.
: :
:
: Not really, no. *Boiled down to its essence, what you've said is "If I
: find gold in my back yard it's a gold mine".
:
: Meaningless noise.
:
: --
: "Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
: *territory."
: * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * --G. Behn
:
:What I have said is you need Gold, Platinum or something which would
:make a profit for private enterprise to be interested.
:

No, that's not what you said at all.

:
:You get private
:space by demonstrating there is money to be made, not simly by pouring
:in massive government subsisies.
:
:Ceres Platinum might just work. It is at least worth debating. You
:need a requirement for Pt. You need electric cars.
:

Yes, Ceres platinum might just work IF there is platinum and Ceres and
IF the price for platinum is enough to make going there, getting it,
and bringing it back profitable.

In other words, it will be profitable if it is profitable.

See what I mean?

--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
*territory."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * --G. Behn

You are right when you say it depends on :-

1) The price of Platinum.
2) Whether Ceres contains Platinum.

On "1" I feel that we have not fully worked out the consequences of a
"green" world. We have to look at 9 billion people driving electric
cars. Each fuel cell has a requirement for precious metal. Is there
enough to go round?

Now if you have a Capitalist system what is the consequence of not
being enough to go round - the price goes up. I feel that the
celebrities who go round in hybrid cars for example have little idea
about how the technology would have to be scaled up. Masdar (Arabic
for source and spelled without the vowels) aims to construct a city of
50,000 people in a carbon neutral way. 50,000 is more than a few
celebrities, and the Gulf is bathed in sunlight all the year round. I
tend to feel a lot of greenery is poorly thought out.

On "2" does Ceres contain platinum. I think it is fairly clear that it
does. Whether there is any differentiation of materials or not, I
don't know. If there is the core will be particularly rich. We do not
in fact know very much about Ceres. We don't know how it is made up,
what is needed is a mission to land geophones at various points on the
surface, and then to deliberately crash a few smart pebbles onto the
surface. This would give us a map of the interior. There is ice
present, there is rock present. Is it a layer of ice and a rocky/
metallic core, or is it a mixture all the way to the centre.

As I said at first it is Hillary not Barack who is suffering. This
leads me to the conclusion that no one really cares, it is the economy
followed by Iraq. No one seems to really care. This of course implies
that any future ventures must either be low cost or commercial.

Ian Parker