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#21
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 19:47:31 -0400, "Jonathan"
wrote: ...for an Atlantic landfalling hurricane. And btw, coming a good month earlier than most of the competition. "Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time) Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico. It is the first landfalling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992. Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun, Mexico." http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tr...=wxcenter_news Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen all too regularly these days. Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes on Record Wilma 882 mb Oct, 2005 Gilbert 888mb Sep, 1988 Florida Keys 892 mb Sep,1935 Allen 899 mb Oct, 1998 Mitch 905mb Oct, 1969 Camille 909 mb Aug, 1969 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html Thanks for the weather report. Science that lives by anecdotal evidence dies by anecdotal evidence. -- Captain Compassion -- The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS Joseph R. Darancette |
#22
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
"Rand Simberg" wrote in message ... On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 21:57:32 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: "Rand Simberg" wrote in message ... In other words, in geological terms, you have very limited experience. Huh! Are you losing your mind? No, not at all. Are you unfamiliar with the word "geological"? Or "terms"? Or "limited," or "experience"? Just what is your mental problem that causes you to fantasize that others are losing their minds? Looks like we have another inutile k00k on our hands. What are you prating about, geological storm boy? |
#23
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
On 23 août, 01:47, "Jonathan" wrote:
...for an Atlantic landfalling hurricane. And btw, coming a good month earlier than most of the competition. "Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time) Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico. It is the first landfalling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992. Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun, Mexico."http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen all too regularly these days. Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes on Record Wilma 882 mb Oct, 2005 Gilbert 888mb Sep, 1988 Florida Keys 892 mb Sep,1935 Allen 899 mb Oct, 1998 Mitch 905mb Oct, 1969 Camille 909 mb Aug, 1969http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html Thank you Jonathan for that very interesting report, and your following comments Best regards jpturcaud |
#24
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
ups.com... On Aug 23, 12:47 am, "Jonathan" wrote: ...for an Atlantic landfalling hurricane. And btw, coming a good month earlier than most of the competition. "Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time) Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico. It is the first landfalling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992. Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun, Mexico."http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen all too regularly these days. Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes on Record Wilma 882 mb Oct, 2005 Gilbert 888mb Sep, 1988 Florida Keys 892 mb Sep,1935 Allen 899 mb Oct, 1998 Mitch 905mb Oct, 1969 Camille 909 mb Aug, 1969 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html I don't see how one could deduce Global Warming, or any other type of climate change, from those data. The minimum pressure, if accurately known, would be a better measure than pressure at landfall which is somewhat arbitrary. It also assumes a straightforward relationship between the numbers of hurricanes and their intensity and sea and air temperatures whereas there are other very important factors to be considered. Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey. Raining bombs in the Middle East. Chaos theory. Elephant in the room. Just a thought..... Alan |
#25
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
"Jonathan" wrote in message .. . "Harley" wrote in message . com... Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen all too regularly these days. A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular? In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane season break all time records for number of storms, the lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and the most destructive ever. Most of the biggest records have all fallen in the last three years. And the very first hurricane of this season is right up there with the strongest of all time. It's average size mercilessly helped spare a large population center. Hurricane Dean had hurricane force winds out to about 60 miles most of the time. While Katrina and Wilma in 2005 extended out about 100 miles. Making them much more likely to hit a large population area. Although last year was a very "boring" season with no US landfalls and at sea activity supressed by dry air and an El Nino. Also bear in mind that despite the ferocity of Dean the Atlantic is experiencing slightly below normal activity for August. There has only been one storm so far this month, with the models not predicting anything to spin up for the next few days at least. Cat 5 hurricanes are not unusual for the Atlantic during the active phase of the AMO. It is the steering currents and the environmental conditions that determine whether they will strike land and at what strength. Dean hit as a cat 5 because firstly the SSTs were very warm along its path and the wind shear was low and secondly it was moving quickly which meant there was less interaction of the outer circulation with the land to weaken the storm before the eye came ashore. Adam |
#26
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
"Jonathan" wrote in message .. . "Tudor Hughes" wrote in message ups.com... I don't see how one could deduce Global Warming, or any other type of climate change, from those data. The minimum pressure, if accurately known, would be a better measure than pressure at landfall which is somewhat arbitrary. It also assumes a straightforward relationship between the numbers of hurricanes and their intensity and sea and air temperatures whereas there are other very important factors to be considered. The point is that this is another near all time record storm. And during the last few years most of the all time records have been smashed. And what is troubling is that the primary driver of hurricanes, ocean temps, have only risen about half a degree centigrade while intense storms have doubled. This is a far stronger increase in intensity than predicted given the change in temps. So, when the ocean temps rise another 3 or 4 degrees as is possible in the next decades? What will the storms be like then? The facts can be argued over till we're blue in the face, but the overall trends are clear and very ominous imho. We live in a non linear world. A very small change in initial conditions can result in massive effects. Global warming cause of intense hurricanes? NBC News http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9429241/ Since the late seventies, global air temps started climbing. http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_evd.htm#graph While in the late seventies, the annual rate of co2 level increase jumped by some 50% over the previous 25 years. http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2 Which is accompanied by rising ocean temps during the same period of time. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s399.htm Followed by the increased storm intensity we're experiencing now. The charts all show something dramatic changed in the late seventies to early eighties. And what has changed is the annual rate of increase of co2, it's /doubled/ in that time. The 70's and 80' were during the negative phase of the AMO which supresses hurricane activity. The AMO switched sign in 1995 which resulted in a jump in activity from then on. Thus if you compare the negative phase of the AMO to the positive one 30 years later then of course the number of intense storms will have increased. It would be like saying that global warming is responsible for the rise in temperatures from January to July. To establish the role of global warming in increased Atlantic hurricane activity you somehow have to remove the effects of the AMO which is tricky. It is likely there is some effect as the Atlantic hurricane activity is sensitive to local SST anomalies - much more than in other basins. Adam |
#27
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
wrote in message ups.com... I remember strong hurricanes from my childhood. A few years ago I stumbled across a page on the National Hurricane Center's website showing that a hurricane once hit Albuquerque in the 1800s. That means it had to cross the entirety of Texas and maintain hurricane strength winds, which means it must have been a real ball-buster, far stronger than anything we've seen since then. There isn't even vaguely enough data available to make meaningful statements about historical weather trends, and the existing data is suspect. The current climate change hysteria is being driven by politics and not science. *Consensus is not science*. My parents talk about hurricanes in theirs and so on. There is NOTHING odd about recent years except for the LACK of hurricanes. As far as all the damage, REAL Florida natives have better sense than to build on the beach but transplants dont know any better so they build million dollar condos there and then complain whn the get destroyed, And then get paid by the government to build there again. If they want to rebuild, I say, go for it, but *no government insurance* and no government help for cities. Build at your own risk. |
#28
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
On Aug 22, 9:12 pm, (Rand Simberg)
wrote: On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 21:57:32 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: "Rand Simberg" wrote in message ... In other words, in geological terms, you have very limited experience. Huh! Are you losing your mind? No, not at all. Are you unfamiliar with the word "geological"? Or "terms"? Or "limited," or "experience"? But we all have "very limited experience" in geological terms, Rand. Unless you're 2 -4 billion years old. Are you that old, Rand? Do you have extensive "experience," geologically? |
#29
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 06:01:10 -0700, in a place far, far away, john
fernbach made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: On Aug 22, 9:12 pm, (Rand Simberg) wrote: On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 21:57:32 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: "Rand Simberg" wrote in message ... In other words, in geological terms, you have very limited experience. Huh! Are you losing your mind? No, not at all. Are you unfamiliar with the word "geological"? Or "terms"? Or "limited," or "experience"? But we all have "very limited experience" in geological terms, Rand. Unless you're 2 -4 billion years old. Are you that old, Rand? Do you have extensive "experience," geologically? I didn't say personal experience. I was referring to...you know...book learnin'. |
#30
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...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...
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