Musk and Mars

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/1...-ahead-of-nasa

I'll be clear. I don't think Musk will get there by 2026 (at least get there
and get folks back, he may be thinking one way).

But then again, I don't think NASA will get there before 2035 either.

I do think Musk, or someone taking his sort of approaches will get there,
eventually.

I think there will be some failures before we're successful. But I don't
think we'll get there by creating more Powerpoints or SLS.

On 6/19/2014 5:30 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
I don't think Musk will get there by 2026
Like NASA and like (pretty much) the rest of the space industry, SpaceX
is no stranger to slipped launch dates. Still, of late SpaceX has been
producing innovations like no other space entity. What's more, they are
rapidly developing a reputation for turning their innovations into
hardware and launching them.

Can they continue? My crystal ball is cloudy.

On Friday, June 20, 2014 9:52:54 AM UTC+12, Vaughn wrote:
On 6/19/2014 5:30 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:

I don't think Musk will get there by 2026

Like NASA and like (pretty much) the rest of the space industry, SpaceX

is no stranger to slipped launch dates. Still, of late SpaceX has been

producing innovations like no other space entity. What's more, they are

rapidly developing a reputation for turning their innovations into

hardware and launching them.



Can they continue? My crystal ball is cloudy.

I think Musk has an integrated idea of what to do.

Currently he's talking about building a solar panel plant. This is an ideal receiver for laser energy from Space.

A broadband laser signal using an advanced optical feedback system sent data reliably from ISS to an observatory on the ground. This package was delivered by SpaceX.

Solar pumped lasers on orbit beaming energy to solar panel arrays on the ground have the capacity to produce large amounts of electrical power.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news...ar-technology/

A thin film concentrator focusing bandgap matched light on to a thin disk laser, produces laser energy very efficiently.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/21832226/M...ectral-Cooling

See figure 18 in my patent above.


Such a system produces 188.1 MW per tonne on orbit.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/130453929/Power-Satellite

SpaceX has looked at the following launch systems. These launch the following numbers of power satellites to replace existing nuclear and coal fired plants on Earth, eliminating nuclear risks and cutting carbon emissions in half;

Falcon Heavy 50 tonnes 9.5 GW 4.5 km diam. 33 Nuc 104 Coal
Mars Colonial 500 tonnes 95.0 GW 14.3 km diam. 4 Nuc 11 Coal

A total of 28 of the larger satellites replace all terrestrial electrical generation with space based power. 274 of the smaller satellites do the same thing.

Replacing internal combustion engines with lithium-air and magnesium-air rechargeable batteries - extends the space based power - eliminates the balance of carbon emissions - and ends the age of oil.

Musk's involvement with the Tesla S motorcar should be noted in this context.

On 6/19/2014 5:30 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/1...-ahead-of-nasa


I'll be clear. I don't think Musk will get there by 2026 (at least get
there and get folks back, he may be thinking one way).

But then again, I don't think NASA will get there before 2035 either.

I do think Musk, or someone taking his sort of approaches will get
there, eventually.


There's a singular sense of purpose here. I truly believe Musk's model
is to use SpaceX's commercial business as a means to get to Mars via the
twins of innovation and revenue. There is no reason why his spiral
development model, as Jeff refers to it, has to stop with comsats,
defense payloads or trips to the ISS for NASA. Elon knows this. As long
as the regulators stay out of his way, he IS developing a pathway that
can realistically get people to Mars.

IMO Musk has personality traits shared with other major innovators of
times past. I am withholding names because I want this observation to
remain on the trait and not get sidetracked into other irrelevant
observations. One characteristic of such a trait is the single minded
pursuit of business that conforms to the innovators world view, other
approaches be damned. An example (good or bad, I'm not saying which,
just observing here) is Telsa's inability to reach an agreement with the
automobile dealers in New Jersey. To the point that Telsas can no longer
be sold in that state. I have to believe the ultimate decision for how
that came to be rests with Musk himself. Others would have likely
compromised and struck a deal long ago. No, in this case the
entrepreneur has a world view of how he or she desires the business to
work and will stick with the view even if it means profits be damned.
Sometimes this approach succeeds and does so in exemplary fashion.
However, other times it does not. But it *is* a trait. One that may be
necessary to get to Mars.

Dave

Musk talks about Mars here;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBaLYDbk4fY

Musk talks about Launch Loops here;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pRB_aG5b-E

The Mars Colonial Transport is slated for construction after the Falcon Heavy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Colonial_Transporter

With MCT Musk gets to Mars one way with chemical launchers in 1200 tonne ships. He'll take 3D printer technology along with technology that breaks down the Martian soil and rock into useful products the the 3D printers can make into anything. Using a local energy source (solar or fusion) and building a returning launch loop along with spacecraft he closes the transport loop.

The launch loop sends a Mars Cycler between Mars and Earth, massing 40,000 tonnes, which maintains a high living standard for those in transit using Martian resources launched with the launch loop.

So the rocket based launcher at Earth sends only personnel, with minimal life support that transfers to the Cycler and thence to Mars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCVfUlFZQ4U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayQh3-RDacA

This proves the feasibility of launch loop technology, and now Musk can seek approvals needed to build a launch loop on Earth.

Meanwhile, cycler ships are added to the system and the cycler ships themselves are enlarged.

In this way the means to send 40,000 tonne payloads at a rate of 10 per hour for 600 hours every 2 years permit the transfer of large numbers of people to Mars.

At 2 persons per tonne, this is 80,000 persons per launch times 6,000 launches = 480 million, every 2 years. Or 240 million per year!

This reduces human numbers on Earth. In 36 years total human population drops below 1 billion persons.

Launch loops also launch payloads between the arrivals of the cycler ships. These payloads go to the 100 largest asteroids in the Main Asteroid belt. The same technology that transforms Mars to a habitable planet, also transforms the Asteroids as well.

So, starting in the fifth year sending 360 million Mars citizens to the 100 largest asteroids, means that each asteroid receives 3.6 million persons per year, while Mars population peaks at a billion, and then drops to 420 million within 9 years. Meanwhile, the population on each of the 100 asteroids rises to 18.4 millions.

Mars then sends 240 million (which are still immigrating from Earth), along with their population growth rate, to the 100 largest asteroids each year. This stabilizes Mars' population at 420 million while seeing a rise to 100 million per asteroid (10 billion total across 100 asteroids) rising to this level over the 36 year period.

http://www.nss.org/settlement/space/oneillcylinder.htm

The O'Neill Cylinder is 6.5 km in diameter and 32.2 km long. It has a 'flat' area between the hemispherical end sections that cover 663.5 sq km. At the same density as San Francisco, each cylinder contains 4.4 million residents. So, 3.6 million per asteroid is one cylinder. 18 million per asteroid is 4 cylinders. 100 million per asteroid is 25 cylinders.

In the asteroid belt solar intensity is 174.5 Watts/m2. On Earth's surface solar intensity averages 250 Watts/m2. So, 1.43 m2 of solar concentrator is needed to illuminate every m2 of the interior. This means that the end of the cylinder facing the sun has a 35 km diameter thin film inflatable concentrator. This focuses light to a point, which is then conducted via light pipe to the interior of the cylinder. It is then projected over 1/2 the interior area with an intensity varying by angle from 0 to 1000 W/m2 to 0 again from 0 degrees to 180 degrees. This 'fan' of solar intensity rotates with the cylinder, only slightly slower. The cylinder rotates once every 1.9 minutes, while the fan a quarter degree every rotation. In this way, the fan completes one rotation relative to the cylinder every 24 hours - reproducing day/night cycle on the interior.

The development of solar pumped laser arrays operated near the solar surface provide the means to radically increase the energy level of human industry, and also provide the means to travel to the stars using photonic thrusters.

http://ykbcorp.com/downloads/Bae_pho...ulation..pd f


Year Earth Mars Asteroids x100

2014 7120

2020 7621
2021 7468 240
2022 7313 483
2023 7156 728
2024 6998 977

2025 6838 868 3.6
2026 6676 758 7.2
2027 6512 646 10.9
2028 6346 534 14.6
2029 6178 420 18.4

2030 6009 420 21.0
2031 5837 420 23.7
2032 5664 420 26.3
2033 5489 420 29.0
2034 5311 420 31.8

2035 5132 420 34.5
2036 4950 420 37.3
2037 4767 420 40.2
2038 4581 420 43.0
2039 4393 420 45.9

2040 4203 420 48.9
2041 4011 420 51.8
2042 3817 420 54.8
2043 3620 420 57.9
2044 3422 420 60.9

2045 3221 420 64.0
2046 3017 420 67.2
2047 2812 420 70.3
2048 2604 420 73.5
2049 2394 420 76.8

2050 2181 420 80.1
2051 1966 420 83.4
2052 1748 420 86.8
2053 1528 420 90.1
2054 1305 420 93.6

2055 1080 420 97.1
2056 853 420 100.6
2057 853 420 101.8
2058 853 420 103.1
2059 853 420 104.4

2060 853 420 105.7
2061 853 420 107.0
2062 853 420 108.3
2063 853 420 109.7
2064 853 420 111.0

2065 853 420 112.4
2066 853 420 113.8
2067 853 420 115.2
2068 853 420 116.6
2069 853 420 118.1


List of Largest Asteroids (over 100 km diameter)

No. Name Diam (km)

1 Ceres 913.
2 Pallas 523.
4 Vesta 501.
10 Hygiea 429.
511 Davida 337.
704 Interamnia 333.
52 Europa 312.
15 Eunomia 272.
87 Sylvia 271.
16 Psyche 264.
31 Euphrosyne 248.
65 Cybele 245.
3 Juno 244.
324 Bamberga 242.
107 Camilla 237.
532 Herculina 231.
451 Patientia 230.
48 Doris 225.
29 Amphitrite 219.
121 Hermione 217.
423 Diotima 217.
13 Egeria 215.
45 Eugenia 214.
94 Aurora 212.
7 Iris 203.
702 Alauda 202.
372 Palma 195.
128 Nemesis 194.
154 Bertha 192.
6 Hebe 192.
76 Freia 190.
130 Elektra 189.
22 Kalliope 187.
259 Aletheia 185.
41 Daphne 182.
747 Winchester 178.
120 Lachesis 178.
790 Pretoria 176.
911 Agamemnon 175.
153 Hilda 175.
566 Stereoskopia 175.
194 Prokne 174.
96 Aegle 174.
59 Elpis 173.
386 Siegena 173.
1437Diomedes 171.
54 Alexandra 171.
334 Chicago 170.
444 Gyptis 170.
241 Germania 169.
409 Aspasia 168.
185 Eunike 165.
354 Eleonora 162.
139 Juewa 162.
11 Parthenope 162.
804 Hispania 161.
165 Loreley 160.
173 Ino 159.
89 Julia 159.
39 Laetitia 159.
536 Merapi 158.
488 Kreusa 158.
85 Io 157.
150 Nuwa 157.
238 Hypatia 156.
145 Adeona 155.
117 Lomia 154.
49 Pales 154.
168 Sibylla 154.
51 Nemausa 153.
106 Dione 152.
1172Žneas 151.
20 Massalia 151.
283 Emma 150.
137 Meliboea 150.
209 Dido 149.
361 Bononia 149.
617 Patroclus 149.
308 Polyxo 148.
211 Isolda 148.
18 Melpomene 148.
508 Princetonia 147.
588 Achilles 147.
895 Helio 147.
196 Philomela 146.
93 Minerva 146.
420 Bertholda 146.
144 Vibilia 146.
95 Arethusa 145.
489 Comacina 144.
69 Hesperia 143.
349 Dembowska 143.
762 Pulcova 142.
268 Adorea 142.
8 Flora 141.
216 Kleopatra 140.
690 Wratislavia 140.
212 Medea 140.
471 Papagena 139.
705 Erminia 139.
111 Ate 139.
344 Desiderata 138.
247 Eukrate 137.
147 Protogeneia 137.
146 Lucina 137.
356 Liguria 135.
187 Lamberta 135.
279 Thule 135.
141 Lumen 135.
1173Anchises 135.
1143Odysseus 135.
426 Hippo 134.
47 Aglaja 133.
419 Aurelia 133.
712 Boliviana 132.
200 Dynamene 132.
92 Undina 132.
654 Zelinda 132.
46 Hestia 131.
1867Deiphobus 131.
159 Aemilia 131.
602 Marianna 130.
405 Thia 129.
469 Argentina 129.
410 Chloris 128.
70 Panopaea 127.
104 Klymene 127.
86 Semele 127.
276 Adelheid 127.
1317Paris 127.
68 Leto 127.
156 Xanthippe 126.
28 Bellona 126.
5 Astraea 125.
3063Makhaon 125.
78 Diana 125.
176 Iduna 125.
90 Antiope 125.
129 Antigone 125.
81 Terpsichore 124.
618 Elfriede 124.
225 Henrietta 124.
381 Myrrha 124.
74 Galatea 123.
772 Tanete 123.
2797 Teucer 123.
2241Alcathous 123.
350 Ornamenta 123.
105 Artemis 123.
2920Automedon 123.
134 Sophrosyne 122.
476 Hedwig 121.
466 Tisiphone 121.
490 Veritas 121.
171 Ophelia 121.
275 Sapientia 121.
360 Carlova 121.
521 Brixia 121.
909 Ulla 120.
38 Leda 120.
388 Charybdis 120.
203 Pompeja 120.
1093Freda 120.
328 Gudrun 120.
53 Kalypso 119.
34 Circe 118.
596 Scheila 117.
56 Melete 117.
12 Victoria 117.
57 Mnemosyne 116.
814 Tauris 116.
481 Emita 116.
683 Lanzia 116.
545 Messalina 115.
1749Telamon 115.
659 Nestor 115.
751 Fa‹na 115.
140 Siwa 114.
595 Polyxena 114.
91 Aegina 114.
266 Aline 113.
230 Athamantis 113.
522 Helga 113.
1467Mashona 112.
37 Fides 112.
40 Harmonia 111.
23 Thalia 111.
1208Troilus 111.
365 Corduba 110.
739 Mandeville 110.
357 Ninina 110.
221 Eos 110.
164 Eva 110.
346 Hermentaria 110.
514 Armida 110.
506 Marion 109.
1269Rollandia 109.
98 Ianthe 109.
713 Luscinia 109.
788 Hohensteina 109.
1583Antilochus 109.
36 Atalante 109.
35 Leukothea 108.
240 Vanadis 108.
233 Asterope 108.
63 Ausonia 108.
748 Sime‹sa 107.
175 Andromache 107.
791 Ani 107.
192 Nausikaa 107.
181 Eucharis 107.
42 Isis 107.
393 Lampetia 106.
570 Kythera 106.
387 Aquitania 106.
191 Kolga 105.
162 Laurentia 105.
2223Sarpedon 105.
663 Gerlinde 104.
30 Urania 104.
1390Abastumani 104.
626 Notburga 104.
148 Gallia 104.
401 Ottilia 103.
1021Flammario 103.
114 Kassandra 103.
2456Palamedes 103.
303 Josephina 103.
2357Phereclos 103.
769 Tatjana 102.
2674Pandarus 102.
1902Shaposhnikov 101.
260 Huberta 101.
1015Christa 101.
313 Chaldaea 101.
404 Arsino‰ 101.
674 Rachele 101.
491 Carina 101.
326 Tamara 100.
635 Vundtia 100.
345 Tercidina 100.

Telsas? I meant Teslas. Well at least I'm contistent. lol.

Dave

Former SpaceX Employee Explains What It's Like To Work For Elon Musk.
Richard Feloni
Jun. 24, 2014, 10:46 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-...#ixzz362Z0sV00

What is it like to work with Elon Musk?
https://www.quora.com/Elon-Musk/What...rid=Ji&share=1


Bob Clark

================================================== =====================================
"David Spain" wrote in message
...

On 6/19/2014 5:30 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/1...-ahead-of-nasa


I'll be clear. I don't think Musk will get there by 2026 (at least get
there and get folks back, he may be thinking one way).

But then again, I don't think NASA will get there before 2035 either.

I do think Musk, or someone taking his sort of approaches will get
there, eventually.


There's a singular sense of purpose here. I truly believe Musk's model
is to use SpaceX's commercial business as a means to get to Mars via the
twins of innovation and revenue. There is no reason why his spiral
development model, as Jeff refers to it, has to stop with comsats,
defense payloads or trips to the ISS for NASA. Elon knows this. As long
as the regulators stay out of his way, he IS developing a pathway that
can realistically get people to Mars.

IMO Musk has personality traits shared with other major innovators of
times past. I am withholding names because I want this observation to
remain on the trait and not get sidetracked into other irrelevant
observations. One characteristic of such a trait is the single minded
pursuit of business that conforms to the innovators world view, other
approaches be damned. An example (good or bad, I'm not saying which,
just observing here) is Telsa's inability to reach an agreement with the
automobile dealers in New Jersey. To the point that Telsas can no longer
be sold in that state. I have to believe the ultimate decision for how
that came to be rests with Musk himself. Others would have likely
compromised and struck a deal long ago. No, in this case the
entrepreneur has a world view of how he or she desires the business to
work and will stick with the view even if it means profits be damned.
Sometimes this approach succeeds and does so in exemplary fashion.
However, other times it does not. But it *is* a trait. One that may be
necessary to get to Mars.

Dave
================================================== =====================================

In article ,
says...

Former SpaceX Employee Explains What It's Like To Work For Elon Musk.
Richard Feloni
Jun. 24, 2014, 10:46 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-...#ixzz362Z0sV00

What is it like to work with Elon Musk?
https://www.quora.com/Elon-Musk/What...rid=Ji&share=1


Good stuff. The main take-away is that they're a start-up and as with
any start-up it's an uphill battle to succeed. You've got to make the
best products out there so that any potential customers will pick you
over any other competition.

As far as the work environment descriptions go, they're consistent with
other start-ups I've heard about. Long hours, sometimes even low pay,
with a chance of a big payoff some years down the road. If the start-up
succeeds, then everyone gets "rich". If it fails, you find another job.
It's a cut-throat work environment that's not for everyone.

And this is one reason why it can be very hard for an existing company
to counter an up and coming start-up. One way to easily counter them is
to buy them. But when the company is privately owned, and the owner
doesn't want to sell, fighting them means resorting to other measures.

Jeff
--
"the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would
magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper
than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in
and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer

On Sunday, June 29, 2014 11:00:54 AM UTC-4, Robert Clark wrote:
Former SpaceX Employee Explains What It's Like To Work For Elon Musk.

Richard Feloni

Jun. 24, 2014, 10:46 AM

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-...#ixzz362Z0sV00



What is it like to work with Elon Musk?

https://www.quora.com/Elon-Musk/What...rid=Ji&share=1





Bob Clark

Thanks Bob for posting that. Haven't read through it all yet, but from what I've read so far very interesting. I'm standing by my previous comments about Elon Musk.

Dave

On Thursday, June 19, 2014 11:39:09 PM UTC-4, William Mook wrote:



So, at 2.1 kph we can see that 1.26 persons can be accommodated per day on the moon, by the operation of the tunnel boring machine. At 8,750 per flight, we can support this transfer from Earth to Moon with the launch loop system described.



With 460 million persons emigrating from Earth each year, and with 1.14% population growth rate each year, (on Moon and Earth) we have the following chart;



Year Earth Moon



2020 7160.9 460.2


460 million leaving Earth per year by 2020? Makes for a nice sci fi story. Have you ever written any? Don't you think that's tad optimistic?

Bob Clark