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1998 not the hottest year on record -- now it's 2005
Yes, that was certainly an "oops" moment there, but the upward trend in
even the U.S. data is still pretty clear from the graph: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D_lrg.gif ....particularly when you look at the 5-year mean, which helps filter out the noise. But U.S. temperatures are still a lot more variable than the global temperature (which makes sense -- air and water currents can carry heat from one place on the Earth to another, without changing the total energy of the system). So if you're interested in global warming, you should be looking at global temperature data, not U.S. data. That's given by the first plot on http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, the Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change. This data is a lot smoother, and the trend is even easier to see. So has 1998 really been dethroned as the hottest year on record? Yes; now it's #2, with a temperature anomoly of 0.57 C. The new champ is 2005, and it's followed closely by 2002, 2003, and 2006. The ten hottest years on record are all from 1990 or later. The top 19 hottest years are all after 1980. All but four of the hottest 30 years are after 1970. At the other end, the 10 coolest years on record are all before 1920. So yes, a mistake was made -- and now I'm sure we'll have to endure the deniers trying to blow it all out of proportion, to cast doubt on the still-solid evidence of global warming. But as you can see, the climate is getting steadily hotter worldwide, and no amount of smoke-blowing from the deniers is going to cool it down. Best, - Joe -- "Polywell" fusion -- an approach to nuclear fusion that might actually work. Learn more and discuss via: http://www.strout.net/info/science/polywell/ |
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Americans are Fascists, George W. Bush is a Terrorist
Joe Strout wrote:
Yes, that was certainly an "oops" moment there And it's all your's (from RealClimate) : [Response: McIntyre noticed that there was an odd offset in the GISTEMP analysis in 2000 which turned out to be related to the transition between USHCN data to the GHCN data. The offset occurred because the USHCN corrections (for Time of Observation bias mainly) affect the more recent values in USHCN but not GHCN (as opposed to only affecting earlier values). Once notified of the problem, GISS investigated immediately, found the error, and added an extra step to the analysis to remove any jump at the transition. This only affected the US temperatures (reducing the mean by about 0.15 ºC in 2000-2006), but since the US is such a small part of the world, it doesn’t effect the global temperatures. Note that this wasn’t a problem with the USHCN data - rather in how the different data sources are melded. It also had nothing to do with any micro-site issues. - gavin] -- Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator : http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html |
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FOUND TO-DAY: finally, the "experts" have "invented" the upgradedJ-2X
Derek Lyons wrote: ...particularly when you look at the 5-year mean, which helps filter out the noise. But U.S. temperatures are still a lot more variable than the global temperature (which makes sense -- air and water currents can carry heat from one place on the Earth to another, without changing the total energy of the system). So if you're interested in global warming, you should be looking at global temperature data, not U.S. data. Particularly given two facts about how US temperatures were measured. 1.) This was done in the early years of the 20th century via mercury thermometers that were considered very accurate if they could get within three degrees of the actual temperature. 2.) Temperatures were only taken in major cities...with the introduction of large scale air conditioning, the interior temperature of buildings dropped far below average in summer, while the heat exchange effect from the air conditioners raised the ambient air temperature outside of them. Add to that the effect of indoor heating during winter and it becomes obvious that any city becomes a major heat well compared to the ambient temperature of the uninhabited area surrounding it. But the cause is unimportant when it comes right down to it... the fact that this summer may see a ice-free sea at the North Pole should give one pause, and indicate that something odd is going on, and whether it's man-made or natural will not make any difference whatsoever in regards to the effect it will have on the planet's climate. Ocean currents will change, and the particular climates of various parts of the world will change due to that. Most animals will probably survive this...they can shift their natural ranges to new areas where the climate is now similar to where they used to be. As to whether farming can survive this is another question. This could mean planting whole new crops in areas that never grew them before, and figuring out what the ideal crop for that area is under changed climatic conditions. Up here in North Dakota, the overall effect seems to be a positive one...our winters are far milder, our hottest days in summer are cooler, and our summer rainfall has increased, although it now tends to come in large downbursts. The overall effect is a moderation of our climate, where it doesn't bottom out at -25 F in winter or get up to 105 F in high summer. When I was a kid, both of those temperatures could have been expected at least once in any average year. Pat |
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