Practical space travel and unlimited growth

Any point on the Earth's surface may be be related to any other point
in the universe by the minimum speed it takes to get there. The rate
at which mass flows from any point to any other therefore is given by
the momentum needed to maintain that flow. The cost of maintaining
that flow is given by the cost of imparting that momentum.

Obviously then, the cost of momentum is an important measure of
maintaining economic connections across the cosmos.

World shipping today is approximately 6.5 billion tons loaded each
year. This is about 1 ton per year per person throughout the world.
This was supported by approximately 1 billion deadweight tons of
capacity spread among 4,000 ships.

3/4 of the total capacity consists of energy transport - oil, coal,
natural gas. 1/4 container ships, finished goods, raw materials and
food products.

Total cost of all shipments is around $10 per ton - or $0.25 per ton
day aboard ships with an average time of shipping of 40 days.

http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/rmt2003_en.pdf


The United States on a per capita basis consumes 11 times this
average.

The 9.5 million millionaires in the world consume 100 times this
average.

So, this gives us a range of mass flows needed to sustain the Earth's
population at today's per capita rates ($9,000 per year and 1 ton per
year average), at US per capita rates ($60,000 per year and 12 tons
per year average), and at millionaire per capita rates ($4,000,000 per
year and 100 tons per year average) assuming various levels of
productivity per capita. Raw materials account for approximately 20%
of per capita costs worldwide, 10% of per capita costs to the average
American, and 1% of per capita costs of the Average millionaire.

So we can see the value per ton is;

$9,000 x 0.20 = $1,800 /. 1 = $1,800 per ton
$60,000 x 0.10 = $6,000 / 12 = $500 per ton
$4,000,000 x 0.01 = $40,000 / 100 = $400 per ton

At $10 per ton shipping costs - we can see that all shipping
quantities are profitable - obviously. We can also see there is a
discount for larger volumes. Also, lower income levels consume more
local supplies, and far fewer items from overseas, thus they tend to
buy small quantities of luxury items. Wealthier nations and
individuals tend to consume items from around the world as a matter of
course, in their day to day patterns of consumption.

Also, 3/4 of the total relate to fuels. Obviously, beamed energy from
solar sources in space to any user throughout the solar system
obviates the need for fuels - excepting regenerative systems that are
backups in the case of interruption of the beamed source.

The critical factor to unlimited growth is availability of resources
in the quantities needed. 9.5 billion people consuming raw materials
at a rate equal to the average millionaire today would consume 100,000
times as much raw material as is produced today. Clearly there is
insufficient terrestrial supply for this huge demand. Obviously there
are adequate supplies off world.

As noted 3/4 of the total shipping transports liquid gaseous and dry
fuels. The balance transports everything else.

It is interesting to note that 1,000 ships each carrying 350,000 tons
of useful payloads - operating throughout the solar system on the
order of 3 weeks one way ship times, would carry all the non-fuel
cargo of humanity today across the solar system. Most interesting is
to compare the size of this shipping to the size of the larger Orion/
Rover spacecraft proposed by Stanislaw Ulam in 1947

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project...ear_propulsion)

An all fusion pulse based unit using no fissionable materials at all,
would permit opening the solar system to industrial development.

We can now look at what it takes to support a worker off-world. Based
on material usage rates aboard the space shuttle, ISS, and nuclear
submarines, it is estimated that 1 ton per year is needed to sustain a
person off-world productively, and 100 kg (220 lbs) per year is needed
to sustain a person off-world productively with a local water supply,
and 10 kg per year is needed to sustain a tele-robotic operation, or a
fully automated robotic operation assuming a humani-form robot.

Average per capita productivity ranges from $300,000 to $30,000,000
per person per year depending on the nature of the process and degree
of mechanisation. The larger values are derived from a careful
analysis of how mining and materials processing scale in zero gee.

Fully autonomous productive systems have been suggested in conjunction
with space development. These are not yet available but are the
subject of research. Should such systems prove to be possible
increases productivity to arbitrarily high levels limited only by
energy density and material availability. In this case, only the
ability to transport the goods to users efficiently is the limiting
factor. Yet, it should be understood that with nuclear pulse
propulsion, the transport side of the equation HAS ALREADY BEEN
RESOLVED - and arbitrarily adding an autonomous factory system
needlessly delays developments that we already should be carrying out
in order to maintain our leadership position in the world through
providing important avenues of radical industrial growth while
simultaneously easing our footprint on Planet Earth.

Laser pulse systems are also contenders that can replace the nuclear
energy source altogether while achieving the same levels of
performance or better.

http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studi...527Kammash.pdf

The world today consumes energy at a rate of 15 trillion watts and
produces roughly $60 trillion. To support the world's population at
US per capita rates requires 165 trillion watts of productive capacity
- with most of the increase due to personal ownership of automobiles.
To support the world's population at the average millionaire level
requires 16.5 quadrillion watts of productive capacity with most of
the increase due to personal ownership of private jet aircraft.

Today's primary energy sources include principally;

the combustion of 28.3 billion barrels of oil each year
the combustion of 5.5 billion tons of coal each year
the combustion of 1.1 billion tons of natural gas each yeear

with the production of over 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

Using 100 trillion watts of solar sources covering 556,000 sq km of
land to generate 3.34 billion tons of hydrogen gas each year by the
electrolytic decomposition of 30 billion tons of water each year -
these primary fuels may be replaced by off-world supplies.

Adding another 556,000 sq km of power satellite area in geosynchronous
orbit, that illuminates the silicon based terrestrial solar panel
arrays with solar powered free electron lasers operating at 37%
overall efficiency - illuminating the silicon solar panels with 1,100
nm wavelength laser energy - at 500 watts per square meter on the
ground - increases output to 278 trillion watts CONTINUOUS - allowing
average per capita energy consumption to be more than DOUBLE today's
US per capita rate - and hydrogen production increases to 62 billion
tons per year.

Using this as a base upon which to build additional energy capacity is
provided by direct beamed energy from sun orbititing power sats,
operating inside the orbit of Mercury, feeding energy to reforming
satellites in medium Earth orbit - to drive automated personally owned
ballistic transport aircraft - with laser powered propulsive skins.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_propulsion

Since 1947 the United States has engaged in a policy to maintain
security in the nuclear age by exercising the retail and banking
functions to promote a large disparity of income between US citizens
and the rest of the world. This income disparity has been used to
maintain a global hegemony needed to maintain peace in the nuclear
era, which is largely paid for by the bulk of humanity. Not by
explicit taxes or war reparations, but through the natural operation
of the market that tends to favor retail and banking functions.

Exploiting these market forces naturally gives rise to competing
systems that undermine the strength of the systems the US relies on.
Organizing banking and financial structures, such as the European
Union, and organizing new marketing and branding structures, as the
rise of German and Japanese marques, are a natural outcome.
Furthermore, a large continuous disparity of income earned at the cost
of others naturally gives rise to jealousies and attracts negative
attention of extremists who view the United States as un deserving of
its leading role since it contributes little except its special
relationships that maintain its position.

A weakening currency, a weak banking system, massive debt,
geopolitical weakeness, and outright attacks are all the long-term
results of this course of action which were predicted at the outset as
being long-term results of our policies. These were largely ignored
since they were long-term. Responses were

a) the US would revert to 'direct military action' to maintain its
position eventually and
b) the US would develop alternatives over the next 50 years
(1947-97)

Neither of these responses were well thought-out, or pursued
diligently. The US hasn't created and maintained a military force
(assuming it could) to counter the entire world's negative attention
and maintain its position, economic strength, and security in the
process. Nor has the US invested in or developed any alternative to
its exploitation of the retail and banking functions to maintain its
position.

The first avenue is untenable. To maintain a state of war whether
declared or not with the rest of the world, makes it impossible to
trade with the rest of the world in a productive manner and maintain
our existing markets in place. Furthermore, the cost of warfare
cannot be moved to our trading partners if we are at war with them.

The second avenue is tenable, assuming that low-cost transport of
energy and materials from off-world is possible. I have just shown
what the requirements are.

For today's energy supplied from offworld, 556,000 sq km of
terrestrial solar panels are needed.

For everyone to use energy at the US per capita rate, those same solar
panels converted to laser receiver ground stations fed by 556,000 sq
km of satellites in GEO is needed.

For everyone to consume energy at the average rate of all the
millionaires alive today and additional 60,000 sq km of sun orbiting
satellites in orbit around the sun inside the orbit of the planet
Mercury is required, with laser reforming satellites in medium Earth
orbit.

For raw materials, 6 billion tons, 72 billion tons, and 600 billion
tons are needed each year withdrawn from principally the asteroid belt
using laser propulsion systems - at a cost of $10 per ton.

At a 7% real growth rate from today's per capita rate - we're talking
about $66 trillion today, $732 trillion to achieve US per capita
incomes in 37 years, and $29.3 quadrillion to achieve $4 million per
year - typical of the average millionaire today - in 90 years.

This is achieved by developing low cost solar panels, low cost solar
panel powered free electron lasers in space, low cost beam steering
technology, low cost laser propulsion systems, developing a fleet of
1,000 spacecraft capable of carrying 350,000 tons each payload,
propelled by very powerful laser beams -


We start with a global wireless broadband, extended to interplanetary
distances

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interplanetary_Internet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teledesic

along with the development of terrestrial solar panel arrays producing
hydrogen at very low cost -

http://www.usoal.com

augmenting fossil fuels. The hydrogen is used to replace coal in
stationary applications, and to make low cost ammonia based
fertilizer, as well as hydrogenate coal not burned in power plants.
This converts the 5.5 billion tons of coal each year to 36 billion
barrels of liquid fuels. Thus increasing the availability of oil from
28.3 billion barrels per year to 65 billion barrels per year -
allowing a 230% increase in the global economy within 12 years at 7%
per annum rate. Continued growth beyond this time frame will occur by
expanding the production of hydrogen initially, and then, by direct
beaming of energy to the majority of end users.

The United States will use the wireless broadband it developed to
develop telerobotic systems that employ workers overseas in US based
factories, managed by US workers. Products will be sold within the US
and overseas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telerobotic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asimo

Telerobotic systems will be used to extend the range of traditional
mines, as well as to extend the output of mining systems off-shore and
ultimately, off-world.

Large laser propelled spacecraft will be used to loft large power
satellites into GEO and deploy them. Systems will be adapted to form
deep space stages that deploy semi-automated systems to the asteroid
belt. Deep space stages will also be used to deploy advanced
powersats into solar orbit inside the orbit of the planet Mercury -
increasing output 1,000s of times. A planetary power network will
join the planetary communications network just described.

Rich asteroids and asteroidal fragments will find their way back to
Earth orbit. There they will be joined by tele-operated factories
that produce products on orbit. Orbiting pressure vessels will be
created to process and assemble raw material extracted on orbit. As
those pressure vessels fall in cost, farming and forestry will be
added to the range of industrial products delivered directly to Earth
from orbit.

Personally owned laser propelled ballistic transport will be developed
and become widely available. Low cost pressure vessels manufactured
in space from asteroidal feedstocks and teleoerated semi-automated
factory systems on orbit - will create space homes. Large propulsion
systems will be added to these pressure vessels, to allow them free
access across the solar system. Ultimately, fully autonomous robotic
systems working aboard large space colonies - personally owned - with
adequate laser light sail and laser propulsion systems - powered from
collections of power sats on orbit near the sun - will provide an
interstellar capability for the human race - leading to what Robert
Heinlein called - diaspora of the human race, and the beginning of
true human civilization.

This is the way to proceed, and this is how America can lead the way.

Additional analysis and targets


Assuming we tap the inner solar system - Ceres orbits 2.8 AU from the
sun, that's 420 million km radius.

Earth is 1.0 AU - 150 million km from the sun.

So, the distance ranges to the most distant point in the inner solar
system - from 570 million km to 270 million km.

Now, at a constant gee force - to transport 285 million km in 20 days
- half the larger distance in half the 40 day trip time - requires

d = 1/2 a t^2

where d= 2.85e+11 meters
t= 1.728e+6 seconds

so

a = 2*d / t^2 = 2* 2.85e+11 / (1.728e+6)^2
=0.1908 m/s/s

19.4 milligees.

v = a * t = 0.1908 * 1.728e+6 = 329,702.4 m/sec


With an exhaust speed of 1,000 km/sec - 1,000,000 m/sec - 100,000
seconds Isp - requires a propellant fraction of about 28.1% for each
stage of the mission.

So, to speed up and slow down requires 48.3% across this 570 million
km distance in 40 days - equalling the performance in time of the
large shipping vessels that ply the Earth's oceans today- throughout
the inner solar system.

Smaller distances, in the same time periods require less energy and
performance.

With a payload of 350,000 tons, this requires approximately 169,000
tons of propellant energized by 84.5e+18 joules of energy to attain
the exhaust speed needed.

This is an average power level of 24.4 trillion watts.

Which requires 7 sq km of solar collector at 3 million km above the
sun to generate.

Allowing a cost of $7 per ton payload as the energy cost of transport
- that's 34.4 trillion joules per dollar. Another $3 per ton for
all other costs.

That's equivalent to 5,654 barrels of oil per dollar.

The 7 sq km of sun orbiting solar collector generates $0.71 per
second, $2,553 per hour, and $22.38 million per year. Using typical
discount rates and longevity terms, we obtain $50 million to $100
million CAPEX per sq km of solar collector to achieve these cost
figures. This is $50 to $100 per sq meter.

Allowing $2 per ton for the CAPEX of the ship, and allowing 6 trips
per year - that's 360,000 tons x 6 x 2 = $4.32 million per year.
This is about $90 million per vehicle using typical longevity and
discount rates. Allowing 5% structure to payload fraction - the
empty vehicle is 18,000 tons - $5 per kilogram - $5,000 per metric
ton. This is low by today's standards when compared to other
aerospace costs - high compared to construction costs of large
shipping vessels.

$1 per ton for the operator costs - this assumes 20 persons per
vehicle - and with $2.16 million per year - $108,000 per year average.

Profits appear at ROI or discount rate for invested capital.