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#1
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
I think its well established here that space settlement can't really
progress in the absence of commercial incentive, save for giant command economy space programs that could possibly start tiny, enourmously expensive settlements of a few hundred glorified vacationers. Its often been suggested in the giant megathreads on the sf and sci.space.policy newsgroups that we will have no commercial incentive to go to space, so we won't; I'm not attempting to redredge that argument. I however don't think there is much commercial incentive now outside of the communications industry, and that it will be unprofitable for a long time for a rational investor to put money into most space programs. I believe that as the economy grows and technology advances, commercial space ventures will become affordable, but not for a long time. Does anyone want to look into the crystal ball and see whether space is still dominated by government prestige and defence programs still by 2050? Looking at previous postings (what will space exploration be like in 2050) about 5 years ago, where are we since then? It seems it was mostly William Mook painting a pretty picture that I find a little overoptimistic in the terms of commercial utility of space, and criticisms of his projections. Still a fun read: http://tinyurl.com/263ak If we have no major wars, revolutions, or other like disruptions, we can expect the global economy to be about 4 times larger than it is currently, with the top economies being China, US, and India. Much of the worlds economies will be geared for industrial production. We may hit the singularity with AI development; or it may just be the entire world buying better cars and having more leisure time. But at some point commercial space travel will be affordable, if for no other reason than the growth of economies to the point of indulgence on whim. So when will commercially viable settlement be affordable? |
#3
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
So when will commercially viable settlement be affordable?
As soon as something is discovered, invented, or thought up that provides a greater return on the invesment in a settlement than it costs to create the settlement. When something is discovered, invented, or thought up that makes it so the settlement can be self-supporting on the basis of exports/tourism or self-supporting in the true sense of being able to cover all its economic bases from local materials. I don't see that happening at all by 2050. |
#4
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
Depends on what you mean by settlement. I will assume a community of
at least a few hundred, some planning on staying permanently, with a locally-produced product, sold on Earth, that isn't subject to cancellation by any particular government's whim. My guess: this will happen within 20 years after the cost to Low Earth Orbit gets down to $100US per pound. What product will that be, exactly? |
#5
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
John Ordover wrote:
What product will that be, exactly? Climate modification. Paul |
#6
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
On Fri, 16 Apr 2004 19:39:19 -0500, in a place far, far away, "Paul F.
Dietz" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: John Ordover wrote: What product will that be, exactly? Climate modification. Freedom. |
#7
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
(Bill Bogen) wrote in message . com...
(Dez Akin) wrote in message om... I think its well established here that space settlement can't really progress in the absence of commercial incentive, save for giant command economy space programs that could possibly start tiny, enourmously expensive settlements of a few hundred glorified vacationers. Its often been suggested in the giant megathreads on the sf and sci.space.policy newsgroups that we will have no commercial incentive to go to space, so we won't; I'm not attempting to redredge that argument. I however don't think there is much commercial incentive now outside of the communications industry, and that it will be unprofitable for a long time for a rational investor to put money into most space programs. I believe that as the economy grows and technology advances, commercial space ventures will become affordable, but not for a long time. Does anyone want to look into the crystal ball and see whether space is still dominated by government prestige and defence programs still by 2050? Looking at previous postings (what will space exploration be like in 2050) about 5 years ago, where are we since then? It seems it was mostly William Mook painting a pretty picture that I find a little overoptimistic in the terms of commercial utility of space, and criticisms of his projections. Still a fun read: http://tinyurl.com/263ak If we have no major wars, revolutions, or other like disruptions, we can expect the global economy to be about 4 times larger than it is currently, with the top economies being China, US, and India. Much of the worlds economies will be geared for industrial production. We may hit the singularity with AI development; or it may just be the entire world buying better cars and having more leisure time. But at some point commercial space travel will be affordable, if for no other reason than the growth of economies to the point of indulgence on whim. So when will commercially viable settlement be affordable? Depends on what you mean by settlement. I will assume a community of at least a few hundred, some planning on staying permanently, with a locally-produced product, sold on Earth, that isn't subject to cancellation by any particular government's whim. My guess: this will happen within 20 years after the cost to Low Earth Orbit gets down to $100US per pound. The utilization of space increases as the cost of momentum goes down, just as the utilization of computers increases as the cost of a calculation goes down. In the 1950s it was unbelievable that anyone but an international corporation could make use of a computer. By the 1970s costs had dropped to the point that we had games on computers. By the 1990s there were more computers connected to a vast global computer network known as the internet, than there were TVs in the 1950s. Anyone in 1950 asking what the world of computing would be like in 2000 would be dumbfounded by the answer - it would appear overly optimistic by many many times. What brought this about? It wasn't a single magic bullet. It wasn't government subsidy. It was and continues to be focus on improving the core values of computers - by reducing the cost per computation. As the cost of computing dropped, the market expanded, and the platforms changed. As the cost of computing dropped, computers went from mainframes, to minis, to micros, to desktops, to laptops, to palmtops... and the trend continues. The cost of momentum is the core value of a rocket. How much does it cost to move a given payload through a given delta vee? Reduce that cost and the use of rockets expands. We can even compare the cost of rockets in imparting momentum to the cost of imparting momentum with airplanes, autos, boats - and find when the use of rockets will have the potential to economically displace each of these for long distance high-value transport, short distance high value, long distance low-value, and so forth. Also, since the relative momentum of the Earth's surface to points beyond the Earth's surface are well defined, as the cost of momentum drops we can predict rather precisely the order of battle as it were to achieving various goals in space. So, without knowing a lot of details, we can discern some general patterns - assuming only one thing. That continued investments in rocket technology reduces its cost, and we further assume rockets will not be used in anger against humans beyond their current roles and capacities. So, here is how the Earth's surface relates to the rest of the cosmos; Suborbital travel Earth Orbit Lunar Surface Interplanetary Interstellar When we try to figure what space is good for we can see a pattern over the past 50 years of development and project what continued development of the core value - cost of momentum - will produce; 1950 - ICBMS - Suborbital 1960 - Communication Satellites - Earth Orbit 1970 - Moon travel - Lunar Surface 1980 - Grand tour - Interplanetary Around 1970 the plug was pulled on fundamental space development. Since that time, we've perfected military other uses of space and coasted on the momentum of the earlier decades. The primary commercial uses have been the perfection of comsats moving from point to point communications (telstar) to one to many (directv, sirius, xm) and ultimately many to many (teledesic, iridium) as satellites increase in sophistication we'll move from telephone to broadband wireless internet that will support TV, HDTV, VR, and ultimately telerobotics. People will live anywhere and work anywhere else by driving robots around via wirless broadband internet and the robots will create a virtual sense experience of what the robot experiences to help the operator drive the robot accurately and naturally. As the cost of momentum falls more things will be commercially viable in space. These might include things like Powersats - large payloads in Earth orbit beaming energy anywhere its needed Asteroid capture - instead of deflecting asteroids away from collision with Earth we focus on deflecting asteroids into Earth orbit to use as feedstock for space industry. Factorysats - using remotely controlled robots powered by powersats and operated by workers on the ground to manufacture anything in space that can be manufactured on Earth. Then, deliver these products where they're needed anywhere on Earth or in the solar system. As the cost of momentum continues to fall rockets become common - so they will eventually be used for; Suborbital package delivery Suborbital passenger service Orbital passenger service This last step will combine with continued expansion of space industry to create; Orbiting Space Home Here, we will build space colonies, but not for 100,000s but for families and small groups - to be privately owned. As costs drop, everyone will own one. This again, is like saying in 1950 that everyone will own several computers connected to a vast network of computers to communicate anything we can imagine. Its unbelievable but low costs of computation make it possible. Same here. Someday everyone will own space homes and travel to them in personal spaceships. When is determined by engineers focusing single mindedly on the cost of momentum in rockets. Continued reduction in the cost of momentum will mean; Interplanetary Space Home and ultimately, Interstellar space home. some day. But once this is achieved, Earth centered norms will no longer apply to the bulk of humanity. The future, as Arthur Clarke is fond of saying, will have arrived and leave everything we now know as a footnote in prehistory. |
#8
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
As the cost of momentum continues to fall rockets become common - so
they will eventually be used for; Suborbital package delivery No market. Suborbital passenger service No market. Orbital passenger service No market. Please note, the fastest commercial transport is, since the demise of the Concorde, slower, not faster. The increased costs were not worth the savings in time. Diminishing returns will get you every time as you try and move faster through the air. |
#9
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
"Paul F. Dietz" wrote in message ...
John Ordover wrote: What product will that be, exactly? Climate modification. Paul On Earth? Wow, wait for that, you'll wait a very long time. |
#10
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When will we be able to afford space settlement?
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