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Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane WithAn Uncertain Future



 
 
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  #1  
Old June 1st 19, 04:57 AM posted to sci.space.policy
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Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane WithAn Uncertain Future

"Space launch company Stratolaunch, which the late Microsoft co-founder Paul
Allen had founded nearly a decade ago, is reportedly in the process of closing
down for good and will be selling off all of its physical assets and
intellectual property rights. The news comes less than two months after the
firm's massive Roc aircraft, the largest plane ever flown, took the sky for the
first time.

On May 31, 2019, Reuters reported that Vulcan, Inc., an investment firm that
Allen had also established to support Stratolaunch and many other projects, had
decided to shutter the space launch unit, citing multiple unnamed individuals
familiar with the plans. The War Zone also heard this earlier in the week. Allen
died in October 2018 after a battle with cancer.

Founded in 2011, Stratolaunch hoped to offer low-cost and flexible access to
space, using the Roc aircraft, named after the mythical bird of prey capable of
carrying off an elephant, to air-launch expendable and reusable space launch
vehicles. A cost-effective air-launched space access concept would allow
customers to get payloads into space on shorter notice than with traditional
rockets and launch them from the best possible location, a potential game-
changing capability that you can read about more here.

Scaled Composites, a part of Northrop Grumman, had actually designed and built
the aircraft. The plan had been for Roc to conduct its first test launch of a
Pegasus XL space launch rocket, another Northrop Grumman product, in 2020.
Stratolaunch and Northrop Grumman both declined to give comments to Reuters for
its story and it is unclear whether or not the test program will continue under
the latter company's direction, but it seems unlikely at this point."

See:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...certain-future

  #2  
Old June 6th 19, 06:29 PM posted to sci.space.policy
David Spain
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Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest PlaneWith An Uncertain Future

From Spruce Goose to Composite Condor...

  #3  
Old June 6th 19, 07:02 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Greg \(Strider\) Moore
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Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane With An Uncertain Future

"David Spain" wrote in message ...

From Spruce Goose to Composite Condor...


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...19189632956681



--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net
IT Disaster Response -
https://www.amazon.com/Disaster-Resp...dp/1484221834/

  #4  
Old June 6th 19, 07:36 PM posted to sci.space.policy
David Spain
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Posts: 2,901
Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest PlaneWith An Uncertain Future

On 6/6/2019 2:02 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"David Spain"Â* wrote in message ...

From Spruce Goose to Composite Condor...


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...19189632956681



Sigh. Thanks Greg. I'd laugh, but it's just way too familiar and way too
sad....

Dave
  #5  
Old June 6th 19, 11:09 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane With An Uncertain Future

In article , says...

On 6/6/2019 2:02 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"David Spain"* wrote in message ...

From Spruce Goose to Composite Condor...


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...19189632956681



Sigh. Thanks Greg. I'd laugh, but it's just way too familiar and way too
sad....


Paul Allen was somehow sold on air launch (likely Rutan sold him on the
idea) and he decided to build Birdzillia. Unfortunately, there was a
complete lack of focus on what it was going to launch! The assumption
was that a partner would be easy to find who would foot the bill for the
launch vehicle development. That was, in hindsight, obviously misguided
thinking.

All IMHO, of course.

Jeff

--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #6  
Old June 6th 19, 11:49 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Posts: 10,018
Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane With An Uncertain Future

Jeff Findley wrote on Thu, 6 Jun 2019
18:09:04 -0400:

In article , says...

On 6/6/2019 2:02 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"David Spain"* wrote in message ...

From Spruce Goose to Composite Condor...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...19189632956681



Sigh. Thanks Greg. I'd laugh, but it's just way too familiar and way too
sad....


Paul Allen was somehow sold on air launch (likely Rutan sold him on the
idea) and he decided to build Birdzillia. Unfortunately, there was a
complete lack of focus on what it was going to launch! The assumption
was that a partner would be easy to find who would foot the bill for the
launch vehicle development. That was, in hindsight, obviously misguided
thinking.


Not that misguided. First, they started out to develop their own
launch vehicles so they weren't engaging in the "complete lack of
focus" that you decry. Second, didn't they have a launch contract
with NG (was OSC (was ATK)) to launch Pegasus XL from it?


--
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable
man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore,
all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
--George Bernard Shaw
  #7  
Old June 7th 19, 11:22 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane With An Uncertain Future

In article ,
says...

Jeff Findley wrote on Thu, 6 Jun 2019
18:09:04 -0400:

In article , says...

On 6/6/2019 2:02 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"David Spain"* wrote in message ...

From Spruce Goose to Composite Condor...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...19189632956681



Sigh. Thanks Greg. I'd laugh, but it's just way too familiar and way too
sad....


Paul Allen was somehow sold on air launch (likely Rutan sold him on the
idea) and he decided to build Birdzillia. Unfortunately, there was a
complete lack of focus on what it was going to launch! The assumption
was that a partner would be easy to find who would foot the bill for the
launch vehicle development. That was, in hindsight, obviously misguided
thinking.


Not that misguided. First, they started out to develop their own
launch vehicles so they weren't engaging in the "complete lack of
focus" that you decry. Second, didn't they have a launch contract
with NG (was OSC (was ATK)) to launch Pegasus XL from it?


First they were to partner with SpaceX to develop the launch vehicle.
But that partnership ended in 2012, so they were left without a launch
vehicle plan at that point.

Second, they went to Orbital ATK as a partner who was supposed to
develop a Pegasus II (bigger, obviously, than the original). That
didn't work out very well either.

The third launch vehicle planned to be launched was Pegauss/Pegasus XL.
But that's kind of like flying a Boeing 747 from NYC to DC with only 50
passengers on the plane. There would have been zero advantage to flying
Pegasus from this aircraft compared to the L-1011. They said something
about flying three of them at once, but even that makes no sense given
the current (very low) flight rate of Pegasus.


Again, they never worked on developing their own launch vehicle. They
were relying on partnerships that never worked out.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #8  
Old June 7th 19, 04:37 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,018
Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane With An Uncertain Future

Jeff Findley wrote on Fri, 7 Jun 2019
06:22:00 -0400:

In article ,
says...

Jeff Findley wrote on Thu, 6 Jun 2019
18:09:04 -0400:

In article , says...

On 6/6/2019 2:02 PM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"David Spain"* wrote in message ...

From Spruce Goose to Composite Condor...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...19189632956681



Sigh. Thanks Greg. I'd laugh, but it's just way too familiar and way too
sad....

Paul Allen was somehow sold on air launch (likely Rutan sold him on the
idea) and he decided to build Birdzillia. Unfortunately, there was a
complete lack of focus on what it was going to launch! The assumption
was that a partner would be easy to find who would foot the bill for the
launch vehicle development. That was, in hindsight, obviously misguided
thinking.


Not that misguided. First, they started out to develop their own
launch vehicles so they weren't engaging in the "complete lack of
focus" that you decry. Second, didn't they have a launch contract
with NG (was OSC (was ATK)) to launch Pegasus XL from it?


First they were to partner with SpaceX to develop the launch vehicle.
But that partnership ended in 2012, so they were left without a launch
vehicle plan at that point.

Second, they went to Orbital ATK as a partner who was supposed to
develop a Pegasus II (bigger, obviously, than the original). That
didn't work out very well either.

The third launch vehicle planned to be launched was Pegauss/Pegasus XL.
But that's kind of like flying a Boeing 747 from NYC to DC with only 50
passengers on the plane. There would have been zero advantage to flying
Pegasus from this aircraft compared to the L-1011. They said something
about flying three of them at once, but even that makes no sense given
the current (very low) flight rate of Pegasus.


Again, they never worked on developing their own launch vehicle. They
were relying on partnerships that never worked out.


Say it again and again, it's still incorrect. They started
development of their own engine (PGA Engine) and got as far as
preburner test firing. They also had a vehicle in development (Medium
Launch Vehicle or MLV) that was slated to fly in 2022, an MLV Heavy
that was in design, and had initiated design studies for a spaceplane
(Black Ice). So your claim that "they never worked on developing
their own launch vehicle" is counterfactual. Now all that development
was set up to run behind that of the launch aircraft, because they
needed that first, but it still existed.

All those got cancelled shortly after Paul Allen's death, since they
were being funded out of his checkbook. It was in all the news, so I
don't see how you missed it.


--
"Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the
truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
-- Thomas Jefferson
  #9  
Old June 8th 19, 02:29 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,307
Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane With An Uncertain Future

In article ,
says...
Again, they never worked on developing their own launch vehicle. They
were relying on partnerships that never worked out.


Say it again and again, it's still incorrect. They started
development of their own engine (PGA Engine) and got as far as
preburner test firing.


I never gave this engine any serious consideration because of how little
public progress they had made on the thing.

Since you can't finish the design of a launch vehicle without a working
engine design, I really don't know how much progress they could have
made on launch vehicle development aside from CAD/CAM/CAE models. Those
are a dime a dozen, IMHO.

From what I can tell from the press, they didn't start preburner testing
of that engine until very late in 2018. That means, realistically, a
full engine would have been several more years in the making (I'd say
about five years, given how long these things take for an engine that
size).

This is an article about their very first preburner firing, which was
only 7 months ago:

Stratolaunch completes milestone preburner test firing for PGA rocket
engine
BY ALAN BOYLE on November 6, 2018 at 10:59 am
https://www.geekwire.com/2018/strato...tes-milestone-
preburner-test-firing-pga-rocket-engine/

They also had a vehicle in development (Medium
Launch Vehicle or MLV) that was slated to fly in 2022, an MLV Heavy
that was in design, and had initiated design studies for a spaceplane
(Black Ice).


IMHO, their 2022 first flight date was an aspirational goal given their
extremely limited progress to date on engine development.

The spaceplane thing was always notional and far off in the future. No
"real" work was ever done on the spaceplane besides renderings, IMHO.

So your claim that "they never worked on developing
their own launch vehicle" is counterfactual. Now all that development
was set up to run behind that of the launch aircraft, because they
needed that first, but it still existed.


I'll agree to that. I should have acknowledged their PGA engine
preburner test firing back in November.

Still, the evidence is that they started work on their own launch
vehicle after not one, but two different partnerships failed to deliver
something that could actually utilize the capabilities of Birdzillia.
In other words, the launch vehicle side of things was never given enough
priority. In house launch vehicle development was clearly "Plan C"
after SpaceX (Plan A) and then Orbital ATK (Plan B) both failed to
deliver.

Stratolaunch's engine development program simply screams last ditch
effort to me. Given a reasonably sized engine takes 5+ years to fully
develop, they should have stared on this in 2012 so the aircraft and
launch vehicle would be ready at the same time.

All those got cancelled shortly after Paul Allen's death, since they
were being funded out of his checkbook. It was in all the news, so I
don't see how you missed it.


True, the plane as well as their liquid fueled rocket engine preburner
development program were both canceled at the same time.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #10  
Old June 8th 19, 08:31 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Posts: 10,018
Default Stratolaunch Reportedly Shuts Down Leaving World's Largest Plane With An Uncertain Future

Jeff Findley wrote on Sat, 8 Jun 2019
09:29:46 -0400:

In article ,
says...
Again, they never worked on developing their own launch vehicle. They
were relying on partnerships that never worked out.


Say it again and again, it's still incorrect. They started
development of their own engine (PGA Engine) and got as far as
preburner test firing.


I never gave this engine any serious consideration because of how little
public progress they had made on the thing.


Your statement was "they never worked on developing their own launch
vehicle". You yourself now admit that your statement was wrong and is
only true if you selectively ignore facts you don't like.


Since you can't finish the design of a launch vehicle without a working
engine design, I really don't know how much progress they could have
made on launch vehicle development aside from CAD/CAM/CAE models. Those
are a dime a dozen, IMHO.


Sorry, but from what I read MLV was 'designed' (as in design
finished).


From what I can tell from the press, they didn't start preburner testing
of that engine until very late in 2018. That means, realistically, a
full engine would have been several more years in the making (I'd say
about five years, given how long these things take for an engine that
size).


Your estimate is quite a bit longer than theirs, since they planned on
launching a completed vehicle in 2022. And again, your claim was
"they never worked on developing their own launch vehicle" when they
quite obviously did.


This is an article about their very first preburner firing, which was
only 7 months ago:

Stratolaunch completes milestone preburner test firing for PGA rocket
engine
BY ALAN BOYLE on November 6, 2018 at 10:59 am
https://www.geekwire.com/2018/strato...tes-milestone-
preburner-test-firing-pga-rocket-engine/


So? Again, your claim was "they never worked on developing their own
launch vehicle" when this is quite obviously work on doing just what
you said they never did.

They also had a vehicle in development (Medium
Launch Vehicle or MLV) that was slated to fly in 2022, an MLV Heavy
that was in design, and had initiated design studies for a spaceplane
(Black Ice).


IMHO, their 2022 first flight date was an aspirational goal given their
extremely limited progress to date on engine development.

The spaceplane thing was always notional and far off in the future. No
"real" work was ever done on the spaceplane besides renderings, IMHO.


I think you're wrong, but regardless, it is still "work on their own
launch vehicle" that you claimed they never did. They hired a guy
from SpaceX in 2017 to run their engine development.

So your claim that "they never worked on developing
their own launch vehicle" is counterfactual. Now all that development
was set up to run behind that of the launch aircraft, because they
needed that first, but it still existed.


I'll agree to that. I should have acknowledged their PGA engine
preburner test firing back in November.

Still, the evidence is that they started work on their own launch
vehicle after not one, but two different partnerships failed to deliver
something that could actually utilize the capabilities of Birdzillia.
In other words, the launch vehicle side of things was never given enough
priority. In house launch vehicle development was clearly "Plan C"
after SpaceX (Plan A) and then Orbital ATK (Plan B) both failed to
deliver.


Actually you have your timeline a bit hosed. The Pegasus stuff was in
parallel with their own vehicle development, not preceding it.


Stratolaunch's engine development program simply screams last ditch
effort to me. Given a reasonably sized engine takes 5+ years to fully
develop, they should have stared on this in 2012 so the aircraft and
launch vehicle would be ready at the same time.


If we assume their claimed flight date for MLV was 'aggressive' vice
'aspirational', they're assuming five years for the whole vehicle, not
just the engine. And that's probably not that far out. So they
'should have' had a start date around 2014 (vice 2016-17).

All those got cancelled shortly after Paul Allen's death, since they
were being funded out of his checkbook. It was in all the news, so I
don't see how you missed it.


True, the plane as well as their liquid fueled rocket engine preburner
development program were both canceled at the same time.


Again your timeline is a bit off. Their launch vehicle efforts were
cancelled before the plane, which kept going for a while after Allen's
death.

I personally don't understand the point of air launch for large
vehicles, but that's a different topic.


--
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable
man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore,
all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
--George Bernard Shaw
 




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