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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
On Sat, 2 Aug 2003 08:02:29 -0500, "John Maxson"
wrote: What's the projected world population by the time we expect to have completely replaced the space shuttle for ISS trips? How does the world's population bare any relation to the space shuttle? Does a newer space ship offer us a timely chance to beat the Malthusian outcome (i.e.., will it help us find natural resources on another celestial body and also lead to colonization)? Depends on NASA's future plans mostly. A heavy lift rocket can move a nice amount of mass out of the local gravity well, but it depends on what NASA plans to put on it. No manned craft is being planned that would last a trip to even the Moon and back. So unless they blast the ISS out of orbit and to a Lunar orbit (a role that it is not too good at), then you won't be seeing people around the Moon until about 2020. If NASA has not returned to the Moon all of 50 years after they last were there, then I for one would vote that they be got rid of. If not, should we start resigning ourselves to that now, by investing more heavily in plans for preventing our extinction? Humans have been around for millions of years already, in more primitive forms, where there is no reason to believe that we won't be around for millions of additional years. Wouldn't that require vast reductions in military expenditures for space, I can only feel that the military would have done a better job with human space exploration (and domination and control) than what NASA has. so we can find peaceful solutions to world strife? There will always be famine, disease and natural disasters, where if you want to cure world strife, then the only answer seems to be to kill everyone. Not a popular choice... So have space and solving this unending supply of world problems. How many spy satellites does the world really need, anyhow? When you can spy on your neighbours every actions, then we have enough or optionally too many. Cardman. |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
Cardman writes:
Humans have been around for millions of years already, IIRC, homo sapiens has been around for approx 130000 years. ... where there is no reason to believe that we won't be around for millions of additional years. There are lots of reasons why we should consider the possibility that our species is a lot closer to its End than to its Beginning. http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsst...2814/story.htm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/...rs/2976279.stm -- Manfred Bartz |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
On Sat, 2 Aug 2003 17:36:06 -0500, "John Maxson"
wrote: Cardman wrote in message .. . How does the world's population bare any relation to the space shuttle? My question is related to the passenger capacity of the shuttle's replacement (relative to the world population at its maiden flight) and not at all to the present space shuttle (which is grounded). Since the OSP is the next on the list, then total seating would be for either three or four. So that would make for one of two passengers, where you can work out for yourself the time it would take to shift the world's population. No manned craft is being planned that would last a trip to even the Moon and back. So unless they blast the ISS out of orbit and to a Lunar orbit (a role that it is not too good at), then you won't be seeing people around the Moon until about 2020. My subject is not related to the moon; the moon is in earth orbit. So is the ISS, which is what you did mention. And as you mentioned the public, then this was related to colonization, whereby I then mentioned that they cannot even go to the Moon yet. Humans have been around for millions of years already, in more primitive forms, where there is no reason to believe that we won't be around for millions of additional years. I think you'll run into considerable disagreement about that. Hey, so we have pessimists, but that does not change the fact that we are going nowhere really quickly. I can only feel that the military would have done a better job with human space exploration (and domination and control) than what NASA has. Why should we judge "better job" by "domination and control?" Cos' NASA owns ****! ;-P There will always be famine, disease and natural disasters, where if you want to cure world strife, then the only answer seems to be to kill everyone. I don't see how your list adds up to "world strife." Then please compile your own list. Cardman. |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 10:05:56 +1000, Manfred Bartz
wrote: Cardman writes: Humans have been around for millions of years already, IIRC, homo sapiens has been around for approx 130000 years. Yes, but I did say in one form or another. Don't knock great grand par just because he is a little on the slow side. :-] In just thousands of years from now, then it will be our turn to play the dumb ancestors. ... where there is no reason to believe that we won't be around for millions of additional years. There are lots of reasons why we should consider the possibility that our species is a lot closer to its End than to its Beginning. And I see that none of them cover human intelligence. http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsst...2814/story.htm Yes, humans all dead before 3 years ago. Viruses are the cause, even if no virus has ever yet achieved that 100% kill rate. Also governments would be really, really and I mean REALLY dumb to even try. You want to know what will happen in such an expected outbreak, then take a good look at how human intelligence contained SARS. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/...rs/2976279.stm Humans all dead by 2100. Possible causes... super-eruptions: Come on eruptions are usually always local, where plenty of people live no where near a volcano, like me. Worst case scenario is the nuclear winter thing, where very many people would die, but not even close to all. asteroid impacts: Have you read the odds today? Not in my life time buddy, where in the future they will certainly be able to solve this threat for good. engineered viruses: Still not got that 100% yet... And then some people would just live underground for years until everyone else was dead and rotted away. nuclear terrorism: Like even a third world War could destroy our entire species let alone terrorists with like one crude bomb. super-intelligent machines: By 2100 right? Come on their still learning to walk and now they are our new masters? Also if they were super intelligent, then they would more likely take care of us. Some paranoid minds at work I see, but this is all good, when this is part of the process in perceiving threats that we can then all tackle. Also when a space revolution occurs and NASA lays dead, then will humans live in space and away from all these threats. Cardman. |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 12:29:01 +0100, Cardman wrote:
In just thousands of years from now, then it will be our turn to play the dumb ancestors. Some of us may be jumping the gun a bit Dale |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 13:01:08 +0100, Cardman wrote:
Well as I am a optimist, then I will see you next in countless billions of years from now, when our ancestors at that time decide to bring everyone back to life (for a joke) and make them immortal. Nah, that will just mean yet another Jackson Five reunion tour. I'll pass Dale |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
"Cardman" wrote in message ... On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 04:36:19 -0700, Dale wrote: On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 12:29:01 +0100, Cardman wrote: In just thousands of years from now, then it will be our turn to play the dumb ancestors. Some of us may be jumping the gun a bit LOL, yes. There are always the pessimists (or doom bringers) in society, where they have always been wrong so far. So I see no reason why in a million years from now our ancestors cannot still be living here and no doubt in a few nearby star systems. Like all those dinosaurs. |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
super-intelligent machines: By 2100 right? Come on their still
learning to walk and now they are our new masters? Also if they were super intelligent, then they would more likely take care of us. Like we take care of our dumber animal neighbors? Also when a space revolution occurs and NASA lays dead, then will humans live in space and away from all these threats. In space, AI will be even more powerful. On earth you can turn off a machine if it gets too smart. Not if you depend on it for the air you breathe. Viruses will be carried in spaceships then, the way they are carried by jetliners now. |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 13:16:14 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote: "Cardman" wrote in message .. . Humans all dead by 2100. Possible causes... super-eruptions: Come on eruptions are usually always local, where plenty of people live no where near a volcano, like me. Worst case scenario is the nuclear winter thing, where very many people would die, but not even close to all. Perhaps, but the human race could be brought below viability levels on a global level and then die out. Met any dinosaurs recently? What like the crocodiles and alligators... Nature has just had it in for big creatures. asteroid impacts: Have you read the odds today? Not in my life time buddy, where in the future they will certainly be able to solve this threat for good. You certainly haven't been reading the odds then. I have been reading the odds, where even a recent computer calculation and simulation showed that impacts were less likely than expected and questioned if we should bother looking for them at all. Also just about all the likely impact types won't even come close to killing our whole species. engineered viruses: Still not got that 100% yet... And then some people would just live underground for years until everyone else was dead and rotted away. And then what do they do? Live on and grow. Sure, some people might survive, but not civilisation. And yet all the knowledge is available for when society supports enough population once again. Knowledge above all else is the key to advanced civilization. I'm more concerned about nanotachnology derived illness myself. I am still waiting for nano-technology to do more then make some nice patterns myself. nuclear terrorism: Like even a third world War could destroy our entire species let alone terrorists with like one crude bomb. super-intelligent machines: By 2100 right? More likely much earlier than that. That is what they said back in like the 1950s, where here we are with no intelligent robots or flying cars. They still have to work on intelligence by a huge degree long before you can even touch on self-awareness. One main problem is that no computer even comes close to the processing power of the human brain. Come on their still learning to walk and now they are our new masters? Also if they were super intelligent, then they would more likely take care of us. On what do you base that comment? Do you have pets? Animal conversation, wildlife parks that Australian guy and his crocodiles. Habitats are made based upon their needs. And someone intelligent who can say why his living quarters suck is much more likely to soon find improvement. Intelligence also promotes co-operation, understanding and will often lead to wisdom. So a greater intelligence would seek control followed by protecting us from ourselves. Either that or they leave us alone to "evolve". Such artificial intelligence would be free from the emotions that are responsible for both the good and bad things in society. Instead they would have rules not unlike what Arthur C. Clarke imagined. Some paranoid minds at work I see, but this is all good, when this is part of the process in perceiving threats that we can then all tackle. You do know who Martin Rees is? Not really, but I expect that he should not have children. Cardman. |
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Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit
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