Earthquake Forecasting Research Nov. 8, 2010

EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING RESEARCH

Posted by: E.D.G. November 8, 2010
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasti...Interpret.html
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Charts.html
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Year_Charts.html

Summary - Charts and information available via the above Web pages and
others could be our world's first easily understood proof that a good
percentage of our most powerful earthquakes can be predicted.

Those data show that governments, independent researchers, and
disaster mitigation personnel could be predicting them by watching for
certain types of electromagnetic energy signals (earthquake precursors) that
can be easily detected around the world.

Newsgroup Readers - Please forward copies of this report to earthquake
researchers, university geology and physics departments, disaster mitigation
groups, government agencies, and news services. This information is also
being circulated by E-mail and surface mail.

This report has been posted to a physics Newsgroup because it
discusses geophysical phenomena. And it was posted to an astronomy related
Newsgroup because the technology being discussed is highly reliant on data
associated with the locations of the sun and the moon in the sky.

The information in this report represents expressions of personal
opinion, observations, and scientific theory.

THE THREE CHART WEB PAGES

The Charts.html Web page listed above displays what are referred to
as "Year Charts." They are two dimensional records of EM Signal activity
(longitude versus time) for the years 2001 through 2010.

The Charts-Interpret.html Web page discusses observations and
theories related to the data on the Year Charts. It is the most important
of the three Web pages.

The Year_Charts.html Web page displays a large number of specially
prepared charts that are intended mainly for earthquake researchers.

EM SIGNALS

The EM Signals being referred to are believed to a large extent to be
earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic energy field signals
that are presently being monitored primarily at one location in the United
States. They can probably be detected anywhere on the planet and are likely
affected by distance and other factors such as fault zone depth.

A variety of EM Signals are being monitored. They range in frequency
from about 5 cycles per second up to around 8000 cycles per second. Many of
the signals do not have a specific frequency but are detected as energy
bursts, something like the sound that is heard on a radio when there is a
bolt of lightning during a nearby thunderstorm. The time duration of the
signals is usually in the 0.25 second to 20 second range. Some can last as
long as 6 hours or more.

The detection method I myself am using is somewhat unusual. And
there is not too much that is actually known regarding the nature of the EM
Signals. They do not appear to be electric in nature like a standard radio
wave. Conventional radio receivers seem to be unable to detect them.
Instead they are believed to be associated with fluctuations in the Earth's
geomagnetic energy field as it exists in the atmosphere (rather than the
ground.) Some of the signals can be easily generated and detected under
laboratory conditions. A description of one type of signal detector that
was developed by research personnel in the People's Republic of China can be
found at the above listed Web site.

It may be that the fault zones that are the sources of the EM Signals
could be located by using signal monitors that have a directional
capability. Triangulation might work. I myself do not have any detectors
like that. So I am using a computer program that I have developed over the
years in order to identify fault zone locations.

THE EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM

The Perl and Gnuplot languages based earthquake forecasting computer
program uses an earthquake database that goes from the beginning of 1990 up
to the present. For each of the more than 50,000 earthquakes in the
database file there are 5 numbers that correspond to things such as the
locations of the sun and the moon in the sky at the time that the earthquake
occurred along with certain types of ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide data.
The single most important number of those five is associated with the "Tide
Generating Force."

When EM Signals are detected their times are recorded. The five sun,
moon, and tide crest and trough location type numbers are calculated for
that time. And those numbers are compared with the same numbers in the
earthquake database file. Fairly complex probability equations then
identify the most likely locations for the fault zones responsible for the
EM Signals.

This forecasting method works for some approaching earthquakes. But
it is probably nowhere near as good as a triangulation based method would
be. The reason that his report is being circulated at the present time has
to do with some extraordinary data associated with this forecasting
procedure that have become available in just the past few weeks.

EM SIGNALS AND OUR MOST POWERFUL EARTHQUAKES

There has always been some question regarding exactly which
earthquakes these EM Signals are associated with. And it appears that that
question has now been answered.

Logic would suggest that if they are associated with earthquakes
occurring around the world, then they would preferentially point to the most
powerful ones. And the latest data indicate that this is in fact the case.

The 2001 through 2010 Year Charts use circles of different sizes and
colors to show when 7 and higher magnitude earthquakes occurred. There is a
single 9 magnitude earthquake on the charts that occurred in the Indonesia
area on December 26, 2004. It spawned a tsunami (tidal wave) that
reportedly claimed a quarter of a million lives. And there are about a
dozen 8 magnitude earthquakes plus many more 7 magnitude ones. Some of the
charts also use red triangles to indicate the times and locations of all of
the earthquakes that I know of that produced fatalities.

The EM Signal data appear to be clearly pointing to the approach of
the 8 and higher magnitude earthquakes as well as some of the 7 magnitude
ones and even a few others such as the deadly 6.5 magnitude December 22,
2003 earthquake in California.

There are two easily observed indicators that show that the chart
data are in fact pointing to those powerful earthquakes.

First, the EM Signals are displayed as horizontal lines that have
longitude as the X axis and time as the Y axis. The longitude where the
computer program determines the fault zone responsible for a group of EM
Signals is located is identified by line peaks. And with some of the most
powerful earthquakes it can be easily seen that the precursor line peaks are
at the approaching earthquakes' longitudes.

The second indicator applies to a larger percentage of earthquakes.
Researchers examining the Year Charts should pay particular attention to
this indicator.

With it, the computer program is not necessarily correctly
identifying an approaching earthquake's true longitude. Instead, during the
weeks and months before the earthquake and then during the weeks or months
after it occurs there are easily observed line peak "Transitions." That
means that the line peaks appear at some longitude before the earthquake,
remain there for a while, and then abruptly shift to some other longitude
after it occurs.

Several of the best examples of that "Transition" indicator that are
clearly visible on the Year Charts with the two 8 magnitude earthquakes that
occurred in the Kuril Islands area in late 2006 and early 2007.

COMMENTS

A standalone exe version of my earthquake forecasting computer
program written a few years ago is available through my Web sites as a
freeware download. Some of the source code can also be found there.
Efforts are in progress to make newer versions of the program available for
free use by governments and earthquake researchers around the world.
Computer programs written in any language can interact with the latest
version to generate customized charts etc. There will also be some EM
Signal data that can be used with the computer program for forecasting and
research purposes.

One of the most difficult steps in forecasting earthquakes involves
simply proving that reliable earthquake precursors do in fact exist. And
the Year Charts are doing that by showing that there are links between these
EM Signals and our most powerful earthquakes.

This methodology could be thought of as a type of X-ray system that
can enable researchers to see what is taking place within the Earth's crust
around the world. Some of the line peak patterns observable on the Year
Charts are probably matching phenomena such as volcanic eruptions. That
might be shown to be the case with time. For the present, it is my opinion
that the Year Charts are showing that at least one easily detected, reliable
earthquake precursor exists that governments and disaster mitigation
personnel around the world could be working with in order to tell when
destructive earthquakes are going to occur. There are undoubtedly others.

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