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Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?



 
 
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  #1  
Old December 11th 16, 02:53 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jonathan
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 278
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?



I've been looking at some the incredibly expensive
steps which are planned for a Mars colony.

From the massive rockets, massive transports
and things like droves of robots that will
dig out an underground habitat and so on
and so on and so on...

Sounds like Trillions of dollars will be
needed over several decades.

Of course we all know that as time goes on
and cost estimates steadily rise, the
goals will shrink and shrink, until
in the end we land a couple of astronauts
for a couple of weeks.

But even if a self sustaining colony of
say a 100 people is established, what
will the human race get in return for
all this money and effort?



Finding life on Mars?


NASA has made it clear that's not a primary
concern. The current MSL couldn't identify
life is it was sitting in a field of moss.

And the next rover won't be able to either, instead
looking for signs of...ancient life, and identify
samples for some....future sample return mission
and to support some...future human habitation.

THE MSL 202O CAN DO EVERYTHING.....EXCEPT
DIRECTLY SEARCH FOR LIFE.

http://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/news/w...ws&NewsID=1678


It's yet another rover that's meant to get
a...sample return mission and colony instead
of directly searching for life.

That's just another self-serving deception
on the part of NASA, at the expense of
science and what the public wants.

For the incredible cost of a manned
landing, we could send a hundred much
more ambitious rovers far faster and
cover far more ground than a manned
landing.



Allow the human race to survive an impact?


It's far cheaper and easier to spot, divert
or destroy an asteroid than this colony.


Inspiration?


For what? Colonies around Jupiter?
Again, for the same end, just more
inspiration?


For resources?


What doesn't the Earth have that
the moon or asteroids have?


For national pride?


Spending that money directly improving America
would do far more in that respect.




If an agency is going to spend Trillions of
precious research money on a single project
it needs to be thoroughly justified so as
to be easily convincing.

So far I only see 'planting the flag' as
the only widespread appeal, and that's
not enough.





Ads
  #2  
Old December 11th 16, 04:46 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,018
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

Jonathan wrote:


I've been looking at some the incredibly expensive
steps which are planned for a Mars colony.

From the massive rockets, massive transports
and things like droves of robots that will
dig out an underground habitat and so on
and so on and so on...

Sounds like Trillions of dollars will be
needed over several decades.


Jonathan, this is a 'sci' hierarch newsgroup. That means handwavium
and distortions don't work here. Are you now going to go into another
snit and stalk out of the newsgroup again in high dudgeon?


Of course we all know that as time goes on
and cost estimates steadily rise, the
goals will shrink and shrink, until
in the end we land a couple of astronauts
for a couple of weeks.


We all don't know any such thing. Idiocy like the preceding is why we
don't let you make decisions.


But even if a self sustaining colony of
say a 100 people is established, what
will the human race get in return for
all this money and effort?


Way too few people for a self-sustaining colony.


Finding life on Mars?


NASA has made it clear that's not a primary
concern. The current MSL couldn't identify
life is it was sitting in a field of moss.

And the next rover won't be able to either, instead
looking for signs of...ancient life, and identify
samples for some....future sample return mission
and to support some...future human habitation.

THE MSL 202O CAN DO EVERYTHING.....EXCEPT
DIRECTLY SEARCH FOR LIFE.

http://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/news/w...ws&NewsID=1678


It's yet another rover that's meant to get
a...sample return mission and colony instead
of directly searching for life.


If people aren't going, why do we care? What do we get if we do (or
don't) find life on Mars?


That's just another self-serving deception
on the part of NASA, at the expense of
science and what the public wants.

For the incredible cost of a manned
landing, we could send a hundred much
more ambitious rovers far faster and
cover far more ground than a manned
landing.


Well, no, you couldn't.


Allow the human race to survive an impact?

It's far cheaper and easier to spot, divert
or destroy an asteroid than this colony.


Oh? How's that.


Inspiration?

For what? Colonies around Jupiter?
Again, for the same end, just more
inspiration?


For people to actually get excited about STEM subjects so that they
learn to actually think. Of course, you don't want this because it
would reduce your 'audience'.


For resources?

What doesn't the Earth have that
the moon or asteroids have?


A silly reason to go unless you're going to use those resources in
space.


For national pride?

Spending that money directly improving America
would do far more in that respect.


Nope, it wouldn't.


If an agency is going to spend Trillions of
precious research money on a single project
it needs to be thoroughly justified so as
to be easily convincing.

So far I only see 'planting the flag' as
the only widespread appeal, and that's
not enough.


Your intellectual myopia is your problem, not ours. You seem to have
made an argument against sending toasters to space, too, even though
that's what you seem to favor.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn
  #3  
Old December 12th 16, 12:33 AM posted to sci.space.policy
William Mook[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3,840
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

—to low Earth orbit.

Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.

The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.

Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26 metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210 passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.

Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.

Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.

Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.

People of very high wealth who have money making plans off world may hire agents to represent their interests and establish a homestead off world and later come visit. People who have political difficulties with terrestrial governments will seek a place to live free of those difficulties off world. Governments worried about people off world posing a threat and interfering with terrestrial affairs will send agents and officers off world on various missions that make sense to them. Scientists who seek to understand the new environment and develop that understanding - will have governments and business support their activities. People born off world may seek to return to their parents home world. Others born off world will seek their fortunes where they are. Some will seek their fortunes further afield. Some like America's early lunar explorers will have philisophical insights. Those insights will inform and enlighten others, and new philosophies and religions will arise in the frontier and extend back to terrestrial populations.

My friend Edgar Mitchell's Samadhi Experience on his return from the moon -
https://vimeo.com/15037621

The Noetic Institute was created by Edgar following his flight. Other Apollo astronauts became ministers and artists to communicate their experience. Others became politicians and served on boards of corporations. We can expect a flood of returning adventurers to do even more than the handful of Apollo explorers in the coming years. This will expand and enliven the centre by expanding the mythos of the centre.

Breaking free of the authorities that presume to control us, that is a great transformation of culture, which enlivens and extends the culture in many ways - freeing the centre of that control - and the common mode risks there.

Joseph Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGx4IlppSgU

The frontier will provide resources to the centre - the terrestrials remaining behind. The world for example today consumes 83 tons per year of precious metals far more valued than gold. These metals are more abundant off world than on Earth. So, these metals will form the basis of trade. Less valued metals, but still considered precious occur in larger quantities off world than on Earth. Platinum - 530 tons per year worth a substantial amount - used in fuel cells for example. Gold - 2500 tons per year of gold is produced on Earth used for a variety of purposes. This could easily be doubled using off world resources. Copper 18,400 tons per year. Silver 26,000 tons per year. Uranium 58,000 tons per year. Uranium would very likely be processed into usable forms before being sent to Earth - say suitcase sized devices that produce 750 MW - and when hooked up to sea water and switched on - produce

3.43 kg/sec - hydrogen
12,376.5 kg/hour - hydrogen
111,389.2 litres/hour - water reduced to hydrogen and oxygen
11,138,928.1 litres/hour - sea water to fresh water
389,862.4 kg/hour salt

This is enough to supply fresh water and power in the form of hydrogen fuel, for 668,000 persons. 1.5 million of these devices would supply a population of 10 billion people with the essential of life.

We can also dispose of radioactive wastes off world - on the moon for example - where it can be re-processed.

The escape velocity of Mars is 5.3 km/sec. The excess velocity required to reach Earth is 3.0 km/sec for about 3 months every 2.15 years. This requires an object attain 6.1 km/sec when launched from the surface of Mars. Containers with these metals can be shot out of magnetic launchers, rail guns, hyper velocity cannons, on Mars' surface and they will arrive back at Earth in 3 to 4 months. There they will enter the Earth's atmosphere, and parachute down to a landing. So, returning significant quantities of material from Martian mines is possible.

A 750 MW generator can project 40.3 tons per hour from Mars at 6.1 km/sec using a form of rail gun. Doing this for three months obtains 88,317 tons. Doing this once every 2.15 years obtains 41,077 tons per year - per launcher.

Firing from Ceres at a speed of 4.5 km/sec - for three months out of every 15 months - achieves the same sort of results. It takes about 15 months for materials to reach Earth. Over 583,800 tons of metals and other materials may be projected from Ceres each synodic period from a 750 MW rail gun type launcher.

The world produces 1.6 billion tons of steel each year. Each ton requires 14 gigajoules of energy. To transport this to Earth requires 10.1 gigajoules per ton from Ceres and 16.3 giga joules per ton from Mars' surface.

A 750 MW generator that processes iron into steel and projects it from Ceres transports 244,751 tons per three month interval. We can increase this to the higher rate by making iron in advance and projecting it out - during the synodic launch window. Then, in other periods, making steel and other materials for local production.

To replace all primary steel production world wide with off world sources requires 6,558 mine sites on Ceres, each operating a 750 MW power plant and a rail gun.

Actually Mars covered as it is with iron oxide, is an ideal source of iron, despite the higher energies involved. 8,163 mine sites using a 750 MW power plant and rail gun capable of firing a 6.1 km/sec projectile off world - accurately - and have it guided to Earth - where it brakes in the Earth's atmosphere and descends directly to a customer's site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnnSiK5mayY

So, you have a large bus that is launched off Mars or Ceres, loaded with smaller cargos, that enter the upper atmosphere and descend directly to their buyers.

  #4  
Old December 12th 16, 02:56 AM posted to sci.space.policy
William Mook[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3,840
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

On Monday, December 12, 2016 at 12:33:22 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

—to low Earth orbit.

Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.

The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.

Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26 metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210 passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.

Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.

Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.

Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.

People of very high wealth who have money making plans off world may hire agents to represent their interests and establish a homestead off world and later come visit. People who have political difficulties with terrestrial governments will seek a place to live free of those difficulties off world. Governments worried about people off world posing a threat and interfering with terrestrial affairs will send agents and officers off world on various missions that make sense to them. Scientists who seek to understand the new environment and develop that understanding - will have governments and business support their activities. People born off world may seek to return to their parents home world. Others born off world will seek their fortunes where they are. Some will seek their fortunes further afield. Some like America's early lunar explorers will have philisophical insights. Those insights will inform and enlighten others, and new philosophies and religions will arise in the frontier and extend back to terrestrial populations.

My friend Edgar Mitchell's Samadhi Experience on his return from the moon -
https://vimeo.com/15037621

The Noetic Institute was created by Edgar following his flight. Other Apollo astronauts became ministers and artists to communicate their experience. Others became politicians and served on boards of corporations. We can expect a flood of returning adventurers to do even more than the handful of Apollo explorers in the coming years. This will expand and enliven the centre by expanding the mythos of the centre.

Breaking free of the authorities that presume to control us, that is a great transformation of culture, which enlivens and extends the culture in many ways - freeing the centre of that control - and the common mode risks there.

Joseph Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGx4IlppSgU

The frontier will provide resources to the centre - the terrestrials remaining behind. The world for example today consumes 83 tons per year of precious metals far more valued than gold. These metals are more abundant off world than on Earth. So, these metals will form the basis of trade. Less valued metals, but still considered precious occur in larger quantities off world than on Earth. Platinum - 530 tons per year worth a substantial amount - used in fuel cells for example. Gold - 2500 tons per year of gold is produced on Earth used for a variety of purposes. This could easily be doubled using off world resources. Copper 18,400 tons per year. Silver 26,000 tons per year. Uranium 58,000 tons per year. Uranium would very likely be processed into usable forms before being sent to Earth - say suitcase sized devices that produce 750 MW - and when hooked up to sea water and switched on - produce

3.43 kg/sec - hydrogen
12,376.5 kg/hour - hydrogen
111,389.2 litres/hour - water reduced to hydrogen and oxygen
11,138,928.1 litres/hour - sea water to fresh water
389,862.4 kg/hour salt

This is enough to supply fresh water and power in the form of hydrogen fuel, for 668,000 persons. 1.5 million of these devices would supply a population of 10 billion people with the essential of life.

We can also dispose of radioactive wastes off world - on the moon for example - where it can be re-processed.

The escape velocity of Mars is 5.3 km/sec. The excess velocity required to reach Earth is 3.0 km/sec for about 3 months every 2.15 years. This requires an object attain 6.1 km/sec when launched from the surface of Mars. Containers with these metals can be shot out of magnetic launchers, rail guns, hyper velocity cannons, on Mars' surface and they will arrive back at Earth in 3 to 4 months. There they will enter the Earth's atmosphere, and parachute down to a landing. So, returning significant quantities of material from Martian mines is possible.

A 750 MW generator can project 40.3 tons per hour from Mars at 6.1 km/sec using a form of rail gun. Doing this for three months obtains 88,317 tons.. Doing this once every 2.15 years obtains 41,077 tons per year - per launcher.

Firing from Ceres at a speed of 4.5 km/sec - for three months out of every 15 months - achieves the same sort of results. It takes about 15 months for materials to reach Earth. Over 583,800 tons of metals and other materials may be projected from Ceres each synodic period from a 750 MW rail gun type launcher.

The world produces 1.6 billion tons of steel each year. Each ton requires 14 gigajoules of energy. To transport this to Earth requires 10.1 gigajoules per ton from Ceres and 16.3 giga joules per ton from Mars' surface.

A 750 MW generator that processes iron into steel and projects it from Ceres transports 244,751 tons per three month interval. We can increase this to the higher rate by making iron in advance and projecting it out - during the synodic launch window. Then, in other periods, making steel and other materials for local production.

To replace all primary steel production world wide with off world sources requires 6,558 mine sites on Ceres, each operating a 750 MW power plant and a rail gun.

Actually Mars covered as it is with iron oxide, is an ideal source of iron, despite the higher energies involved. 8,163 mine sites using a 750 MW power plant and rail gun capable of firing a 6.1 km/sec projectile off world - accurately - and have it guided to Earth - where it brakes in the Earth's atmosphere and descends directly to a customer's site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnnSiK5mayY

So, you have a large bus that is launched off Mars or Ceres, loaded with smaller cargos, that enter the upper atmosphere and descend directly to their buyers.


Manufactured goods, drugs, clothing, fabric, foods, etc., are also imported by interplanetary drone from off-world to Earth in the same way raw materials are imported described above. Of course, radio and laser traffic communicates data and software easily enough. So, literature, art, software, banking, finance, services can be done off-world. To support this accountants attorneys and executive representatives will operate in world the way foreign representatives used to operate in-country when sea travel took months. There will be regular traffic of these types of individuals. Telepresence will be possible on Earth, difficult off-world, so talented folks will be in demand in the frontiers and be greatly acclaimed. That acclaim in the frontier will reflexively add to the fame of the person when they return to Earth. For example, Mark Twain visited far flung regions of the globe, and was greatly beloved by those he met during his lecture tours, and when he returned to America, he was famous for having gone to those remote locations. The same will happen for artists, writers, philosophers, engineers, architects, medical folk, and so forth - that are exceptionally talented on Earth - and in great demand off-world.

Mark Twain - Following the Equator
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AL_Cbg5C9E

With 188,760 people per year - with a growth in capacity of 20% per year - and with population growth rate of 2% per year - with a 1/2% return per year - gives the following off-world populations;

Year Per Year-- Total

2020 188,760 188,760
2021 226,512 418,103
2022 271,814 696,188
2023 326,176 1,032,806
2024 391,411 1,439,709
2025 469,693 1,930,997
2026 563,631 2,523,592
2027 676,357 3,237,802
2028 811,628 4,097,997
2029 973,953 5,133,419

2030 1,168,743 6,379,163
2031 1,402,491 7,877,341
2032 1,682,989 9,678,490
2033 2,019,586 11,843,253
2034 2,423,503 14,444,404
2035 2,908,203 17,569,273
2036 3,489,843 21,322,655
2037 4,187,811 25,830,305
2038 5,025,373 31,243,132
2039 6,030,447 37,742,225

2040 7,236,536 45,544,894

  #5  
Old December 12th 16, 11:33 AM posted to sci.space.policy
William Mook[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3,840
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

On Monday, December 12, 2016 at 2:56:56 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
On Monday, December 12, 2016 at 12:33:22 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

—to low Earth orbit.

Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.

The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.

Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26 metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210 passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.

Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.

Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.

Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less.. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.

People of very high wealth who have money making plans off world may hire agents to represent their interests and establish a homestead off world and later come visit. People who have political difficulties with terrestrial governments will seek a place to live free of those difficulties off world. Governments worried about people off world posing a threat and interfering with terrestrial affairs will send agents and officers off world on various missions that make sense to them. Scientists who seek to understand the new environment and develop that understanding - will have governments and business support their activities. People born off world may seek to return to their parents home world. Others born off world will seek their fortunes where they are. Some will seek their fortunes further afield. Some like America's early lunar explorers will have philisophical insights. Those insights will inform and enlighten others, and new philosophies and religions will arise in the frontier and extend back to terrestrial populations.

My friend Edgar Mitchell's Samadhi Experience on his return from the moon -
https://vimeo.com/15037621

The Noetic Institute was created by Edgar following his flight. Other Apollo astronauts became ministers and artists to communicate their experience. Others became politicians and served on boards of corporations. We can expect a flood of returning adventurers to do even more than the handful of Apollo explorers in the coming years. This will expand and enliven the centre by expanding the mythos of the centre.

Breaking free of the authorities that presume to control us, that is a great transformation of culture, which enlivens and extends the culture in many ways - freeing the centre of that control - and the common mode risks there.

Joseph Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGx4IlppSgU

The frontier will provide resources to the centre - the terrestrials remaining behind. The world for example today consumes 83 tons per year of precious metals far more valued than gold. These metals are more abundant off world than on Earth. So, these metals will form the basis of trade. Less valued metals, but still considered precious occur in larger quantities off world than on Earth. Platinum - 530 tons per year worth a substantial amount - used in fuel cells for example. Gold - 2500 tons per year of gold is produced on Earth used for a variety of purposes. This could easily be doubled using off world resources. Copper 18,400 tons per year. Silver 26,000 tons per year. Uranium 58,000 tons per year. Uranium would very likely be processed into usable forms before being sent to Earth - say suitcase sized devices that produce 750 MW - and when hooked up to sea water and switched on - produce

3.43 kg/sec - hydrogen
12,376.5 kg/hour - hydrogen
111,389.2 litres/hour - water reduced to hydrogen and oxygen
11,138,928.1 litres/hour - sea water to fresh water
389,862.4 kg/hour salt

This is enough to supply fresh water and power in the form of hydrogen fuel, for 668,000 persons. 1.5 million of these devices would supply a population of 10 billion people with the essential of life.

We can also dispose of radioactive wastes off world - on the moon for example - where it can be re-processed.

The escape velocity of Mars is 5.3 km/sec. The excess velocity required to reach Earth is 3.0 km/sec for about 3 months every 2.15 years. This requires an object attain 6.1 km/sec when launched from the surface of Mars. Containers with these metals can be shot out of magnetic launchers, rail guns, hyper velocity cannons, on Mars' surface and they will arrive back at Earth in 3 to 4 months. There they will enter the Earth's atmosphere, and parachute down to a landing. So, returning significant quantities of material from Martian mines is possible.

A 750 MW generator can project 40.3 tons per hour from Mars at 6.1 km/sec using a form of rail gun. Doing this for three months obtains 88,317 tons. Doing this once every 2.15 years obtains 41,077 tons per year - per launcher.

Firing from Ceres at a speed of 4.5 km/sec - for three months out of every 15 months - achieves the same sort of results. It takes about 15 months for materials to reach Earth. Over 583,800 tons of metals and other materials may be projected from Ceres each synodic period from a 750 MW rail gun type launcher.

The world produces 1.6 billion tons of steel each year. Each ton requires 14 gigajoules of energy. To transport this to Earth requires 10.1 gigajoules per ton from Ceres and 16.3 giga joules per ton from Mars' surface.

A 750 MW generator that processes iron into steel and projects it from Ceres transports 244,751 tons per three month interval. We can increase this to the higher rate by making iron in advance and projecting it out - during the synodic launch window. Then, in other periods, making steel and other materials for local production.

To replace all primary steel production world wide with off world sources requires 6,558 mine sites on Ceres, each operating a 750 MW power plant and a rail gun.

Actually Mars covered as it is with iron oxide, is an ideal source of iron, despite the higher energies involved. 8,163 mine sites using a 750 MW power plant and rail gun capable of firing a 6.1 km/sec projectile off world - accurately - and have it guided to Earth - where it brakes in the Earth's atmosphere and descends directly to a customer's site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnnSiK5mayY

So, you have a large bus that is launched off Mars or Ceres, loaded with smaller cargos, that enter the upper atmosphere and descend directly to their buyers.


Manufactured goods, drugs, clothing, fabric, foods, etc., are also imported by interplanetary drone from off-world to Earth in the same way raw materials are imported described above. Of course, radio and laser traffic communicates data and software easily enough. So, literature, art, software, banking, finance, services can be done off-world. To support this accountants attorneys and executive representatives will operate in world the way foreign representatives used to operate in-country when sea travel took months. There will be regular traffic of these types of individuals. Telepresence will be possible on Earth, difficult off-world, so talented folks will be in demand in the frontiers and be greatly acclaimed. That acclaim in the frontier will reflexively add to the fame of the person when they return to Earth. For example, Mark Twain visited far flung regions of the globe, and was greatly beloved by those he met during his lecture tours, and when he returned to America, he was famous for having gone to those remote locations. The same will happen for artists, writers, philosophers, engineers, architects, medical folk, and so forth - that are exceptionally talented on Earth - and in great demand off-world.

Mark Twain - Following the Equator
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AL_Cbg5C9E

With 188,760 people per year - with a growth in capacity of 20% per year - and with population growth rate of 2% per year - with a 1/2% return per year - gives the following off-world populations;

Year Per Year-- Total

2020 188,760 188,760
2021 226,512 418,103
2022 271,814 696,188
2023 326,176 1,032,806
2024 391,411 1,439,709
2025 469,693 1,930,997
2026 563,631 2,523,592
2027 676,357 3,237,802
2028 811,628 4,097,997
2029 973,953 5,133,419

2030 1,168,743 6,379,163
2031 1,402,491 7,877,341
2032 1,682,989 9,678,490
2033 2,019,586 11,843,253
2034 2,423,503 14,444,404
2035 2,908,203 17,569,273
2036 3,489,843 21,322,655
2037 4,187,811 25,830,305
2038 5,025,373 31,243,132
2039 6,030,447 37,742,225

2040 7,236,536 45,544,894


http://go.nasa.gov/2gr8JY5

The sands of Mars are red. That's because they're made out of hematite. Why wouldn't you mine iron there and send it back to Earth with a rail gun? While you were doing that, you also make 14 other materials in abundance. In fact you make 5.65 bilion metric tons of stuff per year by mining 75.6 cubic kilometers of Mars dust per year. You make 2.35 billion metric tons of oxygen gas as well.

US MT/yr World MT/yr m3/year m3/year Material Multiple

520,000 12,225,705 4,355,176 102,394,420 Magnesium 738.50
5,390,000 126,724,138 46,293,921 1,088,415,080 Aluminium 69.48
150,000 3,526,646 3,241,820 7,218,336 Silicon 992.12
23,800,000 559,561,129 408,049,103 9,593,630,954 Phosphate 7.88
11,000,000 258,620,690 262,592,504 6,173,804,957 Sulphur 2.25
69,500,000 1,634,012,539 1,659,107,185 39,007,222,229 Salt 1.94
4,700,000 110,501,567 305,194,805 7,175,426,454 Potash 10.54
12,036,933 283,000,000 78,161,905 1,837,662,338 Quick Lime 41.15
1,190,000 27,978,056 56,407,791 1,326,201,991 Titanium 57.02
471,000 11,073,668 62,582,320 1,471,371,159 Chromium 51.39
750,000 17,633,229 88,039,130 2,069,885,505 Manganese 36.53
110,000,000 2,586,206,897 3,216,281,069 75,617,893,465 Steel 1.00
114,000 2,680,251 1,036,364 24,365,916 Nickel 3,103.43
960,000 22,570,533 10,909,091 256,483,329 Zinc 294.83
1,050 24,687 47,727 1,122,115 Bromine 67,388.75
------------- 5,656,339,734 3,216,281,069 75,617,893,465

Sending payloads at 6.1 km/sec from Mars requires 18.6 megajoules per kg. This is done over a three month period around the synodic period. So, this is a power over this period of 28.7 trillion watts - about 20% that used by humanity. To reduce the materials to the desired forms, requires about 15 megajoules per kg - so 2.5 months before sending the material on, requires the reduction of sand and rock into elemental forms.

The global demand is computed by taking the US demand, dividing that by the population and multiplying by the global popuation. SO, the steel is 2.6 billion rather than 1.6 billion tons per year.

28,700 launchers operating simultaneously arcross the planet, at 1 GW each is sufficient to send back to Earth all the things terrestrial humanity needs to live at US living standards in the materials in question - without harming the biosphere.

  #7  
Old December 12th 16, 02:49 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,018
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

William Mook wrote:

To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

to low Earth orbit.


So far so good. But, as usual, Mookie then spirals off into bootless
speculation.


Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.


There is no foundation for these cost 'guestimates'.


The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.


There is no 'expendable' part.


Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26
metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210
passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.


No. Each Transporter can deliver 100 tonnes of 'stuff' to Mars or 100
passengers. You don't get to stack the passengers in like cordwood
and you're overestimating cargo to Mars by over 3x and underestimating
mass per passenger by 4x.


Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.


No. If you are sending along everything in the Transporter that those
people "need to survive on Mars long term", your number of passengers
drops down to 10-15 and the rest of the 100 tonnes to Mars surface
becomes equipment. Musk foresees the first launches only carrying a
dozen or so people and the rest being cargo. Later on, he sees 9-10
cargo launches for every launch with passengers. HIS number make it
pretty clear that getting them to Mars surface takes around 1 tonne
per passenger and around 9 tonnes of other 'stuff' for them to survive
long term once they get there.

On to more bootless speculation...


Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.


You don't have three launch centers, you can't turn them around in a
week, You can't launch 3 of them a week, you're not going to keep
launching over a 52 week period, 75% of the launches are for FUEL
TANKERS, you're estimating 11x more passengers per ship than you can
get to Mars...

More bootless speculation, along with Mook's usual assumption of
magical technologies that don't exist.


Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.


And this is the biggest bit of silliness in your whole imaginary
'business case'. It's not you overestimating the passengers per ship
by 11x. It's not you underestimating the mass per passenger by 4x.
It's not you overestimating the mass per ship by 3x. It's not even
the magic house. It's the question of why these people would go to
Mars

The idea that you're going to get over 1% of this group PER YEAR to
decide to go is, well, ridiculous. You'll be lucky to get that
percentage TOTAL out of this group. What is their incentive to go?
Simply because you can multiply? Your estimates give a colony of 2
million in just a decade. Sane people think it will take a century to
get to something half that size.

snip remaining Mookery


--
"Ordinarily he is insane. But he has lucid moments when he is
only stupid."
-- Heinrich Heine
  #8  
Old December 12th 16, 07:29 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,018
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

JF Mezei wrote:

Possible Mars exports:

- Cans filled with martian air. "Fresh CO2 from Mars".
- Bottled water

AKA: novelty items.

Heck, if Coke/Pepsi can market tap water as upscale water, surely
someone will market water from mars glaciers as something that is very
desirable.

It would make for an intreresting debate on whether humans should strip
materials from one planet to bring back to earth.


It just doesn't pay.


Can we steal a few rocks ? Extract a few kilos of unobtainium ? Ship
tonnes and tonnes of water back to earth ? Steal a planet's atmosphere
with giant "mega maid" to bring back to replenish earth's atmosphere ?


Uh, what needs 'replenished'?


For that matter, could be take over Mars and use it as a giant trash can
to dispose of all of earth's garbage and hazardous materials, spent
uranium ?


The Moon is better suited to that sort of thing, but it's still
hideously expensive trash.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn
  #9  
Old December 12th 16, 10:22 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Rick Jones[_6_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 106
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

JF Mezei wrote:
It is hideously expensive to launch spent radioactive garbage and
have it crash onto the moon (there is no need to land, is there ?)
compared to all the regulatory red tape and long term costs of
maintaining uranium dump site on earth ?


There is a non-trivial group of folks who fight transporting nuclear
waste by either road or rail. It seems rather unlikely they would
find launching it into space any more palatable. Case in point, the
folks who protest any launch involving RTGs.

rick jones
--
It is not a question of half full or empty - the glass has a leak.
The real question is "Can it be patched?"
these opinions are mine, all mine; HPE might not want them anyway...
feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hpe.com but NOT BOTH...
  #10  
Old December 13th 16, 01:04 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,018
Default Once We Have A Self Sustaining Mars Colony - Then What?

JF Mezei wrote:

On 2016-12-12 13:29, Fred J. McCall wrote:

The Moon is better suited to that sort of thing, but it's still
hideously expensive trash.


It is hideously expensive to launch spent radioactive garbage and have
it crash onto the moon (there is no need to land, is there ?) compared
to all the regulatory red tape and long term costs of maintaining
uranium dump site on earth ?


Yes.


Different slant: the sun is said to be a big fusion reactor. If one
were to send a tonne of uranium to the sun, would it remain as uranium
(either molten or vapour) or would the extreme conditions cause any type
of atom to break apart and form hydrogen ?


Even more expensive. Getting to the Sun from here is HARD. The Sun
is a fusion furnace. It starts with hydrogen and makes heavier stuff,
not the other way around.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn
 




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