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Latest News on Global Warming



 
 
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  #1  
Old August 7th 18, 02:40 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Quadibloc
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Default Latest News on Global Warming

The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...port-1.4775649

John Savard
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  #2  
Old August 8th 18, 05:49 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
RichA[_6_]
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Posts: 1,076
Default Latest News on Global Warming

On Tuesday, 7 August 2018 09:40:03 UTC-4, Quadibloc wrote:
The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...port-1.4775649

John Savard


Yes, just like "peak oil," mass-starvation by 1980, global cooling, the LHC creating a black hole and all the other sky-is-falling B.S. you nuts believe.
  #3  
Old August 8th 18, 07:14 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris.B[_3_]
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Default Latest News on Global Warming

On Wednesday, 8 August 2018 06:49:27 UTC+2, RichA wrote:
On Tuesday, 7 August 2018 09:40:03 UTC-4, Quadibloc wrote:
The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...port-1.4775649

John Savard


Yes, just like "peak oil," mass-starvation by 1980, global cooling, the LHC creating a black hole and all the other sky-is-falling B.S. you nuts believe.



Every corrupt and hierarchically organized, technological species must face the seemingly insurmountable, thermal hurdle. And probably fail to deal with it. Some species must fail abysmally and offer only a basic existence of unbelievably wealthy, sociopathic, commercial warlords. Competing against each other to own ever larger armies of downtrodden peasants and countless more commuting, mindless, worker slaves.

All are moving, like zombies, through a smog-ridden, parched and desolate landscape without any foreseeable hope of change. All are working for their own master's toxic and mass produced, ephemeral trinkets, bangles and beads..

The workers even think they compete with each other over which Earth destroying, commuter vehicle makes them seem more important in their own eyes. Or which of this month's, latest mobile communicators ensures they are fully remote controlled and safely contained 24x365 by their distant masters.

This is Earth's _present_ condition. It can only get very much worse. Revolution would be utterly meaningless. Russia and Iran tried that and just look at the living hell with which they were so generously rewarded.
  #4  
Old August 8th 18, 12:03 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gary Harnagel
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Posts: 659
Default Latest News on Global Warming

On Tuesday, August 7, 2018 at 7:40:03 AM UTC-6, Quadibloc wrote:
The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...port-1.4775649

John Savard


http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 298.52 K, Upward heat flux = 298.52 W/m²

T_offset = 2, T_ground = 301.7 K, Upward heat flux = 307.44 W/m²

Conditions are CO2 = 400 ppm, Tropical region, No clouds

Clouds hold the heat in, but reflect more solar energy.

The model also shows that DOUBLING the CO2 concentration to 800 ppm
has a minimal effect on outgoing heat:

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 299.7 K, CO2 = 800 pp,, Upward heat flux = 295.2 W/m²

To get the UHF back to 298.5 W/m², increase T_offset to 0.75 K.
So doubling the CO2 level increases the ground temperature by 2 K.
That doesn't look like a "tipping point."
  #5  
Old August 8th 18, 02:10 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris L Peterson
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Posts: 10,007
Default Latest News on Global Warming

On Tue, 7 Aug 2018 21:49:24 -0700 (PDT), RichA
wrote:

On Tuesday, 7 August 2018 09:40:03 UTC-4, Quadibloc wrote:
The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...port-1.4775649

John Savard


Yes, just like "peak oil," mass-starvation by 1980, global cooling, the LHC creating a black hole and all the other sky-is-falling B.S. you nuts believe.


Peak oil is real. There was never any scientific consensus that the
Earth was cooling. There was never any scientific consensus that the
LHC would create a black hole. There _is_ overwhelming scientific
consensus (within the limits of noise, 100%... probably larger than
for any other scientific idea, even GR) that humans are warming the
Earth and that the consequences are going to be very serious for us.

You flat-earthers just make yourselves look silly pretending
otherwise.
  #6  
Old August 8th 18, 07:11 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris.B[_3_]
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Posts: 1,001
Default Latest News on Global Warming

On Wednesday, 8 August 2018 13:03:40 UTC+2, Gary Harnagel wrote:
On Tuesday, August 7, 2018 at 7:40:03 AM UTC-6, Quadibloc wrote:
The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...port-1.4775649

John Savard


http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 298.52 K, Upward heat flux = 298.52 W/m²

T_offset = 2, T_ground = 301.7 K, Upward heat flux = 307.44 W/m²

Conditions are CO2 = 400 ppm, Tropical region, No clouds

Clouds hold the heat in, but reflect more solar energy.

The model also shows that DOUBLING the CO2 concentration to 800 ppm
has a minimal effect on outgoing heat:

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 299.7 K, CO2 = 800 pp,, Upward heat flux = 295.2 W/m²

To get the UHF back to 298.5 W/m², increase T_offset to 0.75 K.
So doubling the CO2 level increases the ground temperature by 2 K.
That doesn't look like a "tipping point."


Don'tcha just love oversimplification for effect?
Is Big Carbon's pocket money allowance taxable?

  #7  
Old August 8th 18, 07:25 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Jibini Kula Tumbili Kujisalimisha
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Posts: 331
Default Latest News on Global Warming

"Chris.B" wrote in
:

On Wednesday, 8 August 2018 13:03:40 UTC+2, Gary Harnagel
wrote:
On Tuesday, August 7, 2018 at 7:40:03 AM UTC-6, Quadibloc
wrote:
The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...e-report-1.477
5649

John Savard


http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 298.52 K, Upward heat flux = 298.52
W/m



T_offset = 2, T_ground = 301.7 K, Upward heat flux = 307.44
W/m



Conditions are CO2 = 400 ppm, Tropical region, No clouds

Clouds hold the heat in, but reflect more solar energy.

The model also shows that DOUBLING the CO2 concentration to 800
ppm has a minimal effect on outgoing heat:

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 299.7 K, CO2 = 800 pp,, Upward heat
flux

= 295.2 W/m²

To get the UHF back to 298.5 W/m², increase T_offset to 0.75
K. So doubling the CO2 level increases the ground temperature
by 2 K. That doesn't look like a "tipping point."


Don'tcha just love oversimplification for effect?
Is Big Carbon's pocket money allowance taxable?

If stupidity had a tangible value, people named "Chris" would all
be rich.

--
Terry Austin

Vacation photos from Iceland:
https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB

"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek

Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.

  #8  
Old August 9th 18, 02:28 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gary Harnagel
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Posts: 659
Default Latest News on Global Warming

On Wednesday, August 8, 2018 at 12:11:12 PM UTC-6, Chris.B wrote:

On Wednesday, 8 August 2018 13:03:40 UTC+2, Gary Harnagel wrote:

On Tuesday, August 7, 2018 at 7:40:03 AM UTC-6, Quadibloc wrote:
The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...port-1.4775649

John Savard


http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 298.52 K, Upward heat flux = 298.52 W/m²

T_offset = 2, T_ground = 301.7 K, Upward heat flux = 307.44 W/m²

Conditions are CO2 = 400 ppm, Tropical region, No clouds

Clouds hold the heat in, but reflect more solar energy.

The model also shows that DOUBLING the CO2 concentration to 800 ppm
has a minimal effect on outgoing heat:

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 299.7 K, CO2 = 800 pp,, Upward heat flux = 295.2
W/m²

To get the UHF back to 298.5 W/m², increase T_offset to 0.75 K.
So doubling the CO2 level increases the ground temperature by 2 K.
That doesn't look like a "tipping point."


Don'tcha just love oversimplification for effect?
Is Big Carbon's pocket money allowance taxable?


Using simplified models for a sanity check on "more complex" one is a valid
scientific operation.
  #9  
Old August 9th 18, 06:59 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris.B[_3_]
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Posts: 1,001
Default Latest News on Global Warming

On Thursday, 9 August 2018 03:28:25 UTC+2, Gary Harnagel wrote:

Using simplified models for a sanity check on "more complex" one is a valid
scientific operation.


Not if it ignores every other factor.
  #10  
Old August 9th 18, 10:22 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Martin Brown[_3_]
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Posts: 189
Default Latest News on Global Warming

On 09/08/2018 02:28, Gary Harnagel wrote:
On Wednesday, August 8, 2018 at 12:11:12 PM UTC-6, Chris.B wrote:

On Wednesday, 8 August 2018 13:03:40 UTC+2, Gary Harnagel wrote:

On Tuesday, August 7, 2018 at 7:40:03 AM UTC-6, Quadibloc wrote:
The tipping point is in sight:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/w...port-1.4775649


They are probably being overly pessimistic. However, I think the
incidence of wildfires in the USA and persistent drought in Australia
may yet force the climate change deniers to change their tune.

It is a shame that Texas cannot be laid waste by climate change induced
catastrophes. California has been trying quite hard - they don't deserve
to bear the brunt of natures fight against the fossil fuel lobby.

http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 298.52 K, Upward heat flux = 298.52 W/m²

T_offset = 2, T_ground = 301.7 K, Upward heat flux = 307.44 W/m²

Conditions are CO2 = 400 ppm, Tropical region, No clouds

Clouds hold the heat in, but reflect more solar energy.

The model also shows that DOUBLING the CO2 concentration to 800 ppm
has a minimal effect on outgoing heat:

T_offset = 0, T_ground = 299.7 K, CO2 = 800 pp,, Upward heat flux = 295.2
W/m²

To get the UHF back to 298.5 W/m², increase T_offset to 0.75 K.
So doubling the CO2 level increases the ground temperature by 2 K.
That doesn't look like a "tipping point."


If you believe these figures are accurate to 5 sig fig then you are no
scientist.

Don'tcha just love oversimplification for effect?
Is Big Carbon's pocket money allowance taxable?


Using simplified models for a sanity check on "more complex" one is a valid
scientific operation.


Using a model that completely ignores the thawing of permafrost and
clathrates leading to bulk methane escaping in the Siberian wilderness
will obviously not show any kind of tipping point. There is serious
hysteresis in the climate system once you go past a certain point and
the permanent ice caps and glaciers are forced into retreat.

I tormented one of the much earlier models trying to boil the oceans at
the equator by making a big step change in CO2. Even at 3K per doubling
of CO2 it would require an increase of about 2^14 to get the worst case
temperatures that high - about 6 bar of CO2 (making it impossible for
life to survive outdoors in some places is much easier 8x will do that).

Things get quite nonlinear as the equatorial seas approach boiling point
so this was pushing the model well outside reasonable bounds.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown
 




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