#11
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
In article , Rand Simberg
wrote: I've been really depressed for the last week as a result of the failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private space. I've gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up the new frontier. The way to succeed is to have systems that are not so brittle that a single failure causes total destruction. And that's what SpaceX has. Elon Musk has said that he can get through two failures and still do another try. At $100M invested, blowing up a few $6.7M rockets is a lot cheaper than spending a few years drawing viewgraphs instead. I've come to realize that we do in fact have launch systems that work, most of the time, even if they're expensive. We have launch system systems that work to the extent that a new launch system has about even odds of blowing up before its first success. (We could probably improve the launch system system to generate better launch systems, but that would require a launch system system system.) We have a space station, if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it, and start to turn it to the useful ends for which it was intended. It has done pretty well in its primary intention as a foreign aid vehicle. Shuttle is risky, but any new frontier is risky. We need to work hard to continue to minimize the risk of losing our priceless astronauts, even if we don't fly it for another three years. How many priceless astronauts have to die of old age or in training accidents while being valueless as astronauts because launches are shut down for three years? -- David M. Palmer (formerly @clark.net, @ematic.com) |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
If Von Braun had reacted that way to the failure of his first V2, where
would we be now? There'll always be launch failures in the first developmental stages - only the Saturn programme ever escaped without one. You look at what went wrong, fix it and move on! I'll always be dubious about Armadillo Aerospace because of their ad-hoc development process, but SpaceX seem to have their heads screwed on right to me. This is the true future of space, in the intermediate range between the sole inventor and the mega corporation. *From:* h (Rand Simberg) *Date:* Sat, 01 Apr 2006 20:33:33 -0500 OK, I've had a long day, I'm coming down with a cold, and I'm tired, but I've got one more post before I go to bed, and the day is over. I've been really depressed for the last week as a result of the failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private space. I've gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up the new frontier. |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
On Sat, 1 Apr 2006, Rand Simberg wrote:
Date: Sat, 01 Apr 2006 20:33:33 -0500 From: Rand Simberg Newsgroups: sci.space.policy, sci.space.moderated Subject: Reconsideration OK, I've had a long day, I'm coming down with a cold, and I'm tired, but I've got one more post before I go to bed, and the day is over. I've been really depressed for the last week as a result of the failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private space. I've gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up the new frontier. .... much snipped ..... Well, one failure should not be cause for that much dismay, although I too was very much looking forward to a successful launch. The one major thing that really bothered me about SpaceX, however, was their developing a new engine. Why in God's green earth did Elon do that? A Russian NK-39 is not all that much bigger and has far higher performance (Isp of 349 vs 305). He could have come twice as far for half the money had he chosen to use a Russian engine, and then could make the structure much heavier and more robust leading to easier reusability. -- Larry |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
Rand,
I think you need to post again when you're not sick. One launch failure should not spell the end to Space X. If it does, then the investors and customers didn't understand the risks to begin with. Also, despite it's lean, private roots, Falcon 1 is still being tested as ordinance. The first flight was an all up test. As such, I personally figured they had maybe a 50/50 shot of pulling off a successful first flight. I hope they'll fix the problems they find and try again later. Jeff -- Remove icky phrase from email address to get a valid address. .. |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
Rand Simberg ) wrote:
: OK, I've had a long day, I'm coming down with a cold, and I'm tired, : but I've got one more post before I go to bed, and the day is over. : I've been really depressed for the last week as a result of the : failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and : disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private : space. I've gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to : question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up : the new frontier. : I've come to realize that we do in fact have launch systems that work, : most of the time, even if they're expensive. We have a space station, : if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it, and start to : turn it to the useful ends for which it was intended. Shuttle is : risky, but any new frontier is risky. We need to work hard to continue : to minimize the risk of losing our priceless astronauts, even if we : don't fly it for another three years. We have a president with a : vision, a Congress willing to support it to a degree, and a new NASA : administrator (a genuine rocket scientist--something we've never : before had as a NASA administrator, and isn't it about time?) with : great ideas about how to get us back to the moon quickly (or as : quickly as the stingy folks on the Hill are willing to fund). : Maybe it's just because I'm getting old, or don't feel well, but I : know now that relying on guys in garages, operating on shoestrings, is : never going to get us into space. The skeptics are right--Rutan's done : nothing except replicate what NASA did over forty years ago. : Furthermore, I realize now that it's not important that I get into : space myself--what's important is that the opportunity is there for my : children. Or my grandchildren. Or my great-grand children. It may take : a long time, because we know that space is hard. : What's important is that we have to keep striving, keep supporting : these vital efforts, never let our interest flag or wane, in getting : our people back to the moon, and on to Mars, no matter how long it : takes, no matter how much it costs. Yes, it costs a lot, but we are a : great country, and a rich one. There are so many other things that the : government wastes money on, it's very frustrating that we can't get : the support we need to ensure that this NASA human spaceflight : program, critical not just to our nation's future, but to that of : humanity, can't move faster. I now realize that Mark Whittington is : right, and that there's a very real chance that the Chinese will beat : us to the moon, and lay claim to the strategic high ground. But we : must accept that, and work to change that potential outcome, whatever : it takes. : Ad Astra, and good night. Who are you and what have you done with Rand Simberg?!? This poster is much too reasonable to be Rand. Who snuck in and posted this...??? Actually, since we don't seem to be motivated until we're challenged, we'll probably beat (back) China to the moon. That is if they really make a concerted effort. Eric |
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
Rand Simberg ) wrote:
: OK, I've had a long day, I'm coming down with a cold, and I'm tired, : but I've got one more post before I go to bed, and the day is over. : I've been really depressed for the last week as a result of the : failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and : disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private : space. I've gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to : question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up : the new frontier. : I've come to realize that we do in fact have launch systems that work, : most of the time, even if they're expensive. We have a space station, : if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it, and start to : turn it to the useful ends for which it was intended. Shuttle is : risky, but any new frontier is risky. We need to work hard to continue : to minimize the risk of losing our priceless astronauts, even if we : don't fly it for another three years. We have a president with a : vision, a Congress willing to support it to a degree, and a new NASA : administrator (a genuine rocket scientist--something we've never : before had as a NASA administrator, and isn't it about time?) with : great ideas about how to get us back to the moon quickly (or as : quickly as the stingy folks on the Hill are willing to fund). : Maybe it's just because I'm getting old, or don't feel well, but I : know now that relying on guys in garages, operating on shoestrings, is : never going to get us into space. The skeptics are right--Rutan's done : nothing except replicate what NASA did over forty years ago. : Furthermore, I realize now that it's not important that I get into : space myself--what's important is that the opportunity is there for my : children. Or my grandchildren. Or my great-grand children. It may take : a long time, because we know that space is hard. : What's important is that we have to keep striving, keep supporting : these vital efforts, never let our interest flag or wane, in getting : our people back to the moon, and on to Mars, no matter how long it : takes, no matter how much it costs. Yes, it costs a lot, but we are a : great country, and a rich one. There are so many other things that the : government wastes money on, it's very frustrating that we can't get : the support we need to ensure that this NASA human spaceflight : program, critical not just to our nation's future, but to that of : humanity, can't move faster. I now realize that Mark Whittington is : right, and that there's a very real chance that the Chinese will beat : us to the moon, and lay claim to the strategic high ground. But we : must accept that, and work to change that potential outcome, whatever : it takes. : Ad Astra, and good night. Wait, April Fools Day, right? |
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
|
#18
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
Rand Simberg wrote:
Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's April Fools post. Pat's always been a little slow on the uptake, albeit amusingly so... I was buying it hook, line, and sinker until I got to the part where he realized Mark Whittington has been right all along. :-) About the only worse way he could have overplayed his hand was to concede that Eric Chomko or Brad Guth had been right all along... Jim Davis |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
OK, I've had a long day, I'm coming down with a cold, and I'm tired, but I've got one more post before I go to bed, and the day is over. I've been really depressed for the last week as a result of the failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private space. I've gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up the new frontier. Geez. Are you serious, Rand? Honestly, I would have been happily surprised had the flight of the Falcon gone perfectly the first time. Embarrassing? Maybe. My gut feeling is that Musk is on the right track and headed for success. I don't believe he should have gone for an all-up flight the first time, but used a dummy second stage and payload. Anyhow, live and learn. I'll bet he gets much closer next time, and gets to orbit by the third time if not next. Jon |
#20
|
|||
|
|||
Reconsideration
"Jim Kingdon" wrote in message
Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's April Fools post. He had me going up until about paragraph 3 or so (I think "We have a space station, if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it" was about when I stopped asking myself, "gee, what has Rand gotten disillusioned about and what new direction does he see?"). Oh, good grief. Got me too. That's hilarious. Jon |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|