..07 First Atlantic Hurricane Nearing ..."Perfect"...More Global Warming Evidence

On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 13:38:06 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:


"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan" wrote in message
...




Fact:

Isolated events cannot be used as evidence of climate change. It is long
term trends that are important.


That's what 'they' said about Andew, and Katrina and Wilma and Jean and...

The point is we're in the middle of establishing a clear trend of larger
more powerful hurricanes. Out of the last ten most damaging storms
in US history...seven..have been since just 2004. While the number
of landfalling hurricances of all types have stayed roughly unchanged.

RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DAMAGE (U.S.)

1 KATRINA (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2 ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 26,500,000,000
3 WILMA (S FL) 2005 3 20,600,000,000
4 CHARLEY (SW FL) 2004 4 15,000,000,000
5 IVAN (AL/NW FL) 2004 3 14,200,000,000
6 RITA (SW LA, N TX) 2005 3 11,300,000,000
7FRANCES (FL) 2004 2 8,900,000,000
8 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 7,000,000,000
9 JEANNE (FL) 2004 3 6,900,000,000

That's because property values have been going up, and there has been
much more construction and population growth in hurricane zones, not
because hurricanes are getting more powerful. There was virtually no
property damage in Florida at all from Cat 5 storms a few hundred
years ago. It doesn't mean that there weren't any.

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 13:38:06 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:


"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan" wrote in message
...




Fact:

Isolated events cannot be used as evidence of climate change. It is long
term trends that are important.


That's what 'they' said about Andew, and Katrina and Wilma and Jean and...

The point is we're in the middle of establishing a clear trend of larger
more powerful hurricanes. Out of the last ten most damaging storms
in US history...seven..have been since just 2004. While the number
of landfalling hurricances of all types have stayed roughly unchanged.

RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DAMAGE (U.S.)

1 KATRINA (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2 ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 26,500,000,000
3 WILMA (S FL) 2005 3 20,600,000,000
4 CHARLEY (SW FL) 2004 4 15,000,000,000
5 IVAN (AL/NW FL) 2004 3 14,200,000,000
6 RITA (SW LA, N TX) 2005 3 11,300,000,000
7FRANCES (FL) 2004 2 8,900,000,000
8 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 7,000,000,000
9 JEANNE (FL) 2004 3 6,900,000,000

That's because property values have been going up, and there has been
much more construction and population growth in hurricane zones, not
because hurricanes are getting more powerful. There was virtually no
property damage in Florida at all from Cat 5 storms a few hundred
years ago. It doesn't mean that there weren't any.

You are trying to confuse an AGW'er with facts. Something that they can't
deliver.

"Jonathan" wrote in message
...

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan" wrote in message
...




Fact:

Isolated events cannot be used as evidence of climate change. It is long
term trends that are important.


That's what 'they' said about Andew, and Katrina and Wilma and Jean and...

The point is we're in the middle of establishing a clear trend of larger
more powerful hurricanes.

This is a plainly stupid comment. We've only recently had the ability to
measure hurricanes with the accuracy we do now.

Out of the last ten most damaging storms
in US history...seven..have been since just 2004. While the number
of landfalling hurricances of all types have stayed roughly unchanged.

RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DAMAGE (U.S.)

1 KATRINA (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2 ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 26,500,000,000
3 WILMA (S FL) 2005 3 20,600,000,000
4 CHARLEY (SW FL) 2004 4 15,000,000,000
5 IVAN (AL/NW FL) 2004 3 14,200,000,000
6 RITA (SW LA, N TX) 2005 3 11,300,000,000
7 FRANCES (FL) 2004 2 8,900,000,000
8 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 7,000,000,000
9 JEANNE (FL) 2004 3 6,900,000,000

You can't possibly be serious. You are only advertising how dumb one has to
be to believe in AGW. Obviously the dollar damages are going to be higher
presently than in the past because populations are higher and the value of
dollars has been inflated.





And the number of major hurricanes each year is clearly up.


years av trop storms av hurricanes av major hurricanes

1851-2006 156 8.7 5.3 1.8
1997-2006 10 14.5 7.8 3.6

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf



My point is the facts are showing storms are becoming stronger
and larger during the same period greenhouse gasses spike.

A plainly stupid conclusion.


Even the business community recognizes the dramatically
increased risk as home insurance rates in Florida have
gone up anywhere from 50% to 200% in the last two years.
Most private insurers and just dropping everyone near the
coast and forcing everyone into the state policy, Citizens,
which lost a couple of billion last year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/29/us...rssnyt&emc=rss





For Deans eye to grow larger would probably require an eyewall
replacement
cycle (which is what happened with Katrina).


And with Wilma a month later, just around the time it hit the
lowest pressure ever recorded at 882 mb.



It is somewhat ominous that it
is close to cat 5 already and the storm has yet to traverse the warmest
waters. We'll see what happens in the next few days.


And it's ominous it went to a category one to a four so quickly.
In just 24 hours or so. It seems to me it used to be pretty rare
for a storm to get to category 5, just the right conditions
had to happen. Now, it seems something has to get in the
way to prevent them all from becoming a category 5.

"Joe S." wrote in message
...

"PauL" wrote in message
...
Jonathan wrote:

What I want to see is if the eye starts growing in size once
it reaches category 5 strength. At that strength, and an eye
on the order of a hundred miles across, Dean would be
another super-hurricane like Katrina and Wilma in 05.

Oh No!
Maybe I should move the lawn furniture into the garage?

Paul in Houston, Texas.

Well, dumbass, before that, maybe you want to take a look at this
slideshow. The Mississippi Gulf Coast after Katrina.

http://psds.wcu.edu/1564.asp

http://psds.wcu.edu/1565.asp



....and logic would dictate that if there were no buildings in that area,
there would be no property damage!
Look fool, hurricanes have been happening from the dawn of time. Devistation
only happens when humans
lose property and posessions. Get it now?
If Bambi was living there and got blown 50 miles inland, you would call that
"nature" and wouldn't give it
a second thought. But because people chose to build on the ocean and lost
their posessions, is goes from
an act of nature to man made devastation. You really need to get a life.

On Aug 18, 6:31 am, "Jonathan" wrote:

First of many 5s to come. Too bad we're not smart enough to save
ourselves.
- Brad Guth

Theory:

"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones
(typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation."



Looks like we need to establish a category 6 for the really big boys...

Remember, global warming doesn't mean gradual warming everywhere.

Heard it said that, if humans never happened, the Earth would be
starting another ice age right now (more like a thousand years ago).
Seems we humans canceled it. Even the small populations back then
burned enough fuel to have an impact.

On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 12:44:54 -0400, Talk-n-Dog
wrote:

Captain Compassion wrote:
On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 09:31:08 -0400, "Jonathan"
wrote:

PCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers of "Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis"
http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/cl...qs-wg1-spm.jsp


Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks to Record Low
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
Aug 17, 2007
The puzzling thing, he said, is that the melting is actually occurring
faster than computer climate models have predicted.

So the models are wrong?

Yes.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful". -- George E. P. Box
--
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius

Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS

Joseph R. Darancette

On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 16:57:17 -0300, in a place far, far away, robert
casey made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:



Theory:

"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones
(typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation."



Looks like we need to establish a category 6 for the really big boys...

The physics sets an upper limit on how powerful they can get.

Rand Simberg wrote:
On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 16:57:17 -0300, in a place far, far away, robert
casey made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:


Theory:

"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones
(typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation."



Looks like we need to establish a category 6 for the really big boys...


The physics sets an upper limit on how powerful they can get.


Come now. We all know that the Bush/Cheney/Rove Hurricane Machine can
target blacks with storms having peak winds speeds that are well into
the hypersonic. That's why Rove is leaving the White House... Bush
Doesn't Care About Black People so much that he's ordered Rove to
improve the Hurricane machine so that instead of simply blowing houses
down, it will hurl them into space in excess of escape velocity.

I mean come on, it's obvious.