...Was the N Korean Missile Fired Towards Hawaii?

"John Schilling" wrote in message
...
Especially
in contrast with the ongoing war in Iraq, this would be a most
righteous crusade against an Insane Supervillian(tm) plotting
Nefarious Evil(tm) with his Weapons of Mass Destruction(tm).

Is this not fodder for a Bond movie?

John Schilling wrote:


Kim Jong-Il is not an Insane Supervillian. I know what the
TV says, and the blogosphere, but no.


Oh yeah?
http://www.teamamerica.com/downloads/wp_7_small.html
Are you sure you're really "John Schilling" and not, say...GEORGE
CLOONEY, leader of F.A.G.?! ;-)

In article ,
jonathan wrote:
Your position defies logic. You are assuming it's just coincidence
that Kim fired the missile in the general direction of our
Pacific Fleet headquarters.

You might want to note that India also just fired a rocket in the general
direction of your Pacific Fleet headquarters. Worse yet, China (AAA! The
Yellow Peril!) does the same thing with some frequency. So does Japan.

They do this for the same reason that North Korea *might* conceivably have
done it: by coincidence -- yes, pure coincidence -- they are located
roughly west of said headquarters, and east is the direction in which you
launch satellites if you want maximum payload. So you can't rationally
conclude anything from the direction in which the launch was done.

...So logic and caution would dictate
we assume the worst case...not...the best case as you have.

John's point is that jumping to *either* conclusion is incorrect. The
evidence does not support choosing one over the other.

Only an irrational mind would NOT consider N Korea
to be a threat to start a war...

Clearly they are a *threat* to start a war. But if and when they actually
decide to start one, it's likely to be a whole lot less ambiguous. (Hint:
US forces based in Japan are a much more immediate threat to them than the
forces far away in Hawaii. Even back in the 1950s, when the US military
was much less air-mobile than it is now, Japan was the primary staging
base for operations into Korea.)

...I imagine you consider the time they
launched, the Fourth of July, is another coincidence?
Not intended to send the US a clear message?

If they meant to send a clear message, they sure chose a vague, obscure,
and cryptic way of doing it.

In other words, the more threatened he feels remaining
in power at home, the more likely he is to start a war
with the US.

There's not the slightest evidence that he is feeling threatened.
Fortunately or unfortunately, his grip on his country seems quite secure,
as best one can tell from outside.
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |

"Henry Spencer" wrote in message
...
In article ,

There's not the slightest evidence that he is feeling threatened.
Fortunately or unfortunately, his grip on his country seems quite secure,
as best one can tell from outside.


In my hobby, complexity science, the idea is to use the output
of a system to gain info about the inner mechanisms. The
opposite of conventional. The output, his recent actions, indicate
he does have serious internal problems. Which would be
expected given the overwhelming economic and political
problems facing his country.

Kim just thumbed his nose at his only remaining ally, China.
And one of his primary sources of income are from sales
of military technology, which just fizzled for all the
world to see. And I sincerly believe that once Iraq
winds down he feels N Korea is next on the list.
After all we're close to cutting a deal with Iran, which
would leave him ...all alone.. on that list.

I smell a critical point approaching, desperation is written
all over his actions. He keeps pushing harder while the
US and China play hot-potato with the issue.
Something's gotta give sooner or later.

Facts? This is politics, the science of mind-reading.


s




--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
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John Schilling ) wrote:
: On Sun, 9 Jul 2006 19:49:15 -0400, "jonathan" wrote:

: During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
: the missile launches, he was asked each time which
: direction the long range missile was fired. Both
: times he dodged the question and seemed rather
: nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
: don't want to talk about it.

: Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
: along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
: even possible?

: Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
: that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
: response?


: No, he isn't. There are lots of people out peddling conspiracy
: theories about how Kim Jong-Il is planning to nuke Hawaii or
: Alaska as soon as he gets missiles working, and therefore if
: Bush II had any sense we'd go nuke North Korea into oblivion
: right now.

: And I understand the appeal of that sort of thing. Especially
: in contrast with the ongoing war in Iraq, this would be a most
: righteous crusade against an Insane Supervillian(tm) plotting
: Nefarious Evil(tm) with his Weapons of Mass Destruction(tm).
: A war devoid of moral ambiguity, devoid of sympathetic innocent
: bystanders (the North Korean people being rather media-invisible
: these days), and perhaps most importantly a war devoid of any
: possibility of American defeat or even significant American
: casualties. At least in the conspiracy-fantasy version, this
: would be almost as glorious as World War II, the war every
: red-blooded American wants to fight.


: Except, A: it takes a particularly small and nasty mind to
: *want* to be fighting any sort of war, and B: the conspiracy
: fantasy version has absolutely nothing to do with reality.

: Kim Jong-Il is not an Insane Supervillian. I know what the
: TV says, and the blogosphere, but no.

: And the recent Taepo-Dong launch, as near as anyone can tell,
: was aimed in the direction vaguely known as "East". It didn't
: get far enough for any outside observer to pin it down any
: more precisely than that. A long-range missile launched due
: east of Musudan-ri, would pass approximately 500 miles south
: of Hawaii.

: The same missile launched exactly 5.8 degrees North of due
: East, might hit Hawaii. Or fly harmlessly over it, or fall
: well short of it. Need to get the elevation and velocity
: right as well, and we've even less clue there than we do
: with the azimuth.

Fly harmlessly over Hawaii, after he flew one harmlessly over Japan and
now put up a dud?! This is not a fun game and if he does screw up (i.e.
sends a missile harmlessly over some country and it them becomes a dud,
thus striking said country), then he should pay (i.e. direct strike on his
castle).

: Mostly, though, "East of Musadan-ri" means a few million
: square miles of empty ocean, which is exactly where people
: trying to test a missile without hurting or threatening
: anyone, would *want* to aim.

: And, perhaps more importantly, anyone who wants to test,
: not a missile, but a primitive satellite launch vehicle,
: is going to want to launch exactly due East if they can.
: The Taepo-Dong is pretty clearly a missile, but the last
: time the North Koreans tested one, they pretended it was
: a satellite launch vehicle, fired it due east, and didn't
: come anywhere close to hitting Hawaii.

: There's no reason to believe this wasn't more of the same.

Posturing? Just let him do it?

: So, no, Kim Jong-Il did not just try to nuke Pearl Harbor,
: and we don't have to nuke North Korea. Don't have to, and
: aren't going to, and it's not because anyone is covering
: anything up.

Fine, I'm with you until he hits another country and then...let him have
it and hard!

Eric

: --
: *John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
: *Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
: *Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
: *White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
: * for success" *
: *661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *

On Mon, 10 Jul 2006 22:49:18 -0400, "Scott Hedrick"
wrote:


"John Schilling" wrote in message
.. .
Especially
in contrast with the ongoing war in Iraq, this would be a most
righteous crusade against an Insane Supervillian(tm) plotting
Nefarious Evil(tm) with his Weapons of Mass Destruction(tm).

Is this not fodder for a Bond movie?


This is not a coincidence. The producers of the Bond movies,
not constrained in any way by concerns of realism, have made
enormous sums of money by telling stories about the world most
people really, really want to live in.

Righteous Crusades, Insane Supervillians to be defeated,
Nefarious Evil to be thwarted, Glorious Victories in which
nobody we care about gets hurt, complete lack of moral
ambiguity. Great stuff. Much more fun than reality.


Interesting historical exercise: Compare the relative success
of the United States of America in its wars the past century
or so, with the ability of American propagandists to paint the
enemy as an Insane Supervillian and his Faceless Minions.

Kim Jong-Il, is easy to miscast as an Insane Supervillian. And
we know his home address. If we wanted to wage war for the sake
of waging war, it would be hard to pick a better target.


--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *

On Mon, 10 Jul 2006 22:15:29 -0400, "jonathan" wrote:


"John Schilling" wrote in message
.. .
On Sun, 9 Jul 2006 19:49:15 -0400, "jonathan" wrote:

During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
the missile launches, he was asked each time which
direction the long range missile was fired. Both
times he dodged the question and seemed rather
nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
don't want to talk about it.

Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
even possible?

Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
response?

No, he isn't. There are lots of people out peddling conspiracy
theories about how Kim Jong-Il is planning to nuke Hawaii or
Alaska as soon as he gets missiles working, and therefore if
Bush II had any sense we'd go nuke North Korea into oblivion
right now.

Your position defies logic. You are assuming it's just coincidence
that Kim fired the missile in the general direction of our
Pacific Fleet headquarters.

The missile, as stated, was launched in the general direction
of "East". Yes, our Pacific Fleet headquarters is generally
East of Musadan-ri.

Our major forward bases in East Asia are all in the general
direction of "South" from Musadan-ri. Our Central Command
is currently deployed in the general direction of "West"
frum Musadan-ri. And our Homeland is found in the general
direction of "North" from Musadan-ri.

It is not coincidence, but geographic inevitability, that
the North Korean missile was launched "in the general
direction" of something idiot conspiracy theorists could
point at and scream, "They're shooting at Vital American
Interests!!!"


And it's not just the North Koreans. Every long-range
missile, rocket, and space launch vehicle ever to ride
fire across the sky, has flown a trajectory that comes
within a few hundred miles of someone else's major
strategic military installations.

The British, the French, the Russians, the Chinese, the
Indians, the Israelis, have all thusly "threatened" us,
and us them, and each of them pretty much all of the
others.

So, either we're way past due for World War III, or a
launch "in the general direction" of someone else's
territory, isn't cause for a shooting war.


And I understand the appeal of that sort of thing. Especially
in contrast with the ongoing war in Iraq, this would be a most
righteous crusade against an Insane Supervillian(tm) plotting
Nefarious Evil(tm) with his Weapons of Mass Destruction(tm).
A war devoid of moral ambiguity, devoid of sympathetic innocent
bystanders (the North Korean people being rather media-invisible
these days), and perhaps most importantly a war devoid of any
possibility of American defeat or even significant American
casualties. At least in the conspiracy-fantasy version, this
would be almost as glorious as World War II, the war every
red-blooded American wants to fight.

Only an irrational mind would NOT consider N Korea
to be a threat to start a war. Especially while they are
lobbing missiles towards our base of military power
in the region.

There's a difference between being "a threat to start a war",
and actually starting a war.

The North Koreans, did not just start a war. And however much
you might want it, we aren't going to start a war either. We
have explained to you, patiently, why the direction the North
Koreans launched their rocket was the safest, most reasonable,
most legitimate direction available to them, and ought not be
taken as an indication of nefarious intent without far more
evidence. And nobody who actually matters, thinks that it
would be a good idea to start a war over it.

Just idiot conspiracy theorists. The rest of us, are going to
handle this in a more sensible fashion, and leave you all to
your rants.


--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *

In article ,
jonathan wrote:
Kim just thumbed his nose at his only remaining ally, China.

Unfortunately, they so far show little sign of responding to his rudeness
by actually cutting back support to him. (If they did, we might see a
more reasonable attitude from him.)
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |

Henry Spencer ) wrote:
: In article ,
: jonathan wrote:
: Kim just thumbed his nose at his only remaining ally, China.

: Unfortunately, they so far show little sign of responding to his rudeness
: by actually cutting back support to him. (If they did, we might see a
: more reasonable attitude from him.)

Makes me think that China likes the fact that NK is threatening to the
Wset...

: --
: spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
: mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |

"John Schilling" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 10 Jul 2006 22:15:29 -0400, "jonathan" wrote:


"John Schilling" wrote in message

Just idiot conspiracy theorists.


Nut cases, like the Japanese govt? Which for the first time
in over half a century are theatening not only foreign military
actions, but preemptive strikes as well. But that doesn't
matter, since we all know that the Japanese for decades
have been a trigger-happy bunch that attack other
countries at the drop of a dime....right?

But it's not the facts on the ground that are important, it's
the ...effects...that matter. How people react are the
facts to be examined in such questions.


The rest of us, are going to
handle this in a more sensible fashion, and leave you all to
your rants.



Half the world is talking about this issue, and think it's
worth discussing. And the other half is doing....ah...well
....you tell me~



s





--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *