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  #11  
Old September 21st 16, 08:07 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Posts: 10,018
Default Chinese Space Station News

bob haller wrote:

On Wednesday, September 21, 2016 at 6:31:14 AM UTC-4, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article ,
says...

On Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 2:27:20 PM UTC-4, jacob navia wrote:
Le 20/09/2016 à 05:02,
a écrit :
China's Tiangong-1 space station has been orbiting the planet for about 5 years
now, but recently it was decommissioned and the Chinese astronauts returned to
the surface. In a press conference last week, China announced that the space
station would be falling back to earth at some point in late 2017."

Problem is:

The chinese controllers have lost the command over the ship that will
fall incontrably to earth somewhere.

I find it preposterous that space ships fall somewhere, maybe over
someone's head... The chinese (americans russians whatever) should
ensure that the ship is disposed in a controlled manner, over an empty
area of the planet!

this will be a problem untill the situation fixes itself........

a major part comes down in a city and kills a bunch of people.


Very unlikely given the percentage of the surface of the earth covered
by "city".

they are playing the odds, and have been successful so far, but it will eventually happen


And the odds are clearly in their favor.


very unlikely means its still possible.. rocket owners have been playing the odds forever. its assured one day they will come back to bite them


It's also 'still possible' that we could all fart at the same time and
blow Earth's atmosphere away, but it's pretty unlikely.


the most likely event. a failure on iss leads to loss of control. station is big heavy complex and in low orbit.....


No. I know this is one of your pet "the sky is falling" scenarios,
but it's pretty much ****e.


when station begins to enter modules will break off, scattering debris, many of which will survive rentry, all over our world.


Wrong. Pieces don't just magically start flying hither and yon
because you're an idiot.


Causing a world wide panic..


Only among people who are prone to react to Chicken Little.


--
"Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the
truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
-- Thomas Jefferson
  #12  
Old September 21st 16, 10:52 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Bob Haller
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Posts: 3,197
Default Chinese Space Station News

skylab was somewhat under control/

the last crew left a solar powered receiver on. when nasa realized it was going to re enter. they contacted skylab and ordered it to charge its batteries. without stable power they had blown some controls, and were on the backup.

they kept skylab in a low drag attitude, to get it as low in the atmosphere as possible, then ordered it to tumble to dig into the atmosphere over a low popuation area

came down over the ocean and australia

the chinese station appears they cant control or communicate with it at all.......

now lets assume A ISS failure where the crew abandons the station or is unable to control it....

once the station begins tumbling modules will probably come off one at a time, all along its ground track

once a disaster occurs rules will be tightened

its not a matter of if...... only when. so far we have been lucky......

  #13  
Old September 22nd 16, 03:43 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default Chinese Space Station News

In article ,
says...

On Wednesday, September 21, 2016 at 6:31:14 AM UTC-4, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article ,
says...

On Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 2:27:20 PM UTC-4, jacob navia wrote:
Le 20/09/2016 à 05:02,
a écrit :
China's Tiangong-1 space station has been orbiting the planet for about 5 years
now, but recently it was decommissioned and the Chinese astronauts returned to
the surface. In a press conference last week, China announced that the space
station would be falling back to earth at some point in late 2017."

Problem is:

The chinese controllers have lost the command over the ship that will
fall incontrably to earth somewhere.

I find it preposterous that space ships fall somewhere, maybe over
someone's head... The chinese (americans russians whatever) should
ensure that the ship is disposed in a controlled manner, over an empty
area of the planet!

this will be a problem untill the situation fixes itself........

a major part comes down in a city and kills a bunch of people.


Very unlikely given the percentage of the surface of the earth covered
by "city".

they are playing the odds, and have been successful so far, but it will eventually happen


And the odds are clearly in their favor.


very unlikely means its still possible..


It's also very unlikely that it will snow tomorrow here in Ohio. You
could place a bet against snow tomorrow and be nearly certain to win.
The odds of the *single module* Chinese space station hitting "in a city
and kills a bunch of people" is very, very low.

rocket owners have been playing the odds forever. its assured one day
they will come back to bite them


So what? People die every day from all sorts of accidents. You act
like space is "special" in this regard. It's not.


the most likely event. a failure on iss leads to loss of control.
station is big heavy complex and in low orbit.....


You've said this many times before, but it was b.s. then and it's b.s.
now. Where is your analysis? If it is someone else's analysis, where
is your cite?

when station begins to enter modules will break off, scattering
debris, many of which will survive rentry, all over our world.


No Bob, that's *not* *at* *all* how orbital mechanics and reentries
work. Your paranoid delusional fantasies are getting the best of you
again.

Look at the debris pattern of Skylab. It wasn't "all over the world",
despite the fact that it too was made up of several pieces. The debris
pattern was, in fact, in a fairly narrow path below what would have been
its next orbit of the earth, had it had the kinetic energy to keep
going.

Causing a world wide panic..


B.S. Global thermonuclear war would cause a world wide panic.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #14  
Old September 22nd 16, 03:48 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default Chinese Space Station News

In article ,
says...

skylab was somewhat under control/


It wasn't really. They tried to control where it came down, but really
couldn't.

the last crew left a solar powered receiver on. when nasa realized it was going to re enter. they contacted skylab and ordered it to charge its batteries. without stable power they had blown some controls, and were on the backup.

they kept skylab in a low drag attitude, to get it as low in the atmosphere as possible, then ordered it to tumble to dig into the atmosphere over a low popuation area

came down over the ocean and australia


This is more or less right, but they were *not* aiming for Australia, so
clearly it wasn't under complete control.

the chinese station appears they cant control or communicate with it at all.......

now lets assume A ISS failure where the crew abandons the station or is unable to control it....


Why would we ever assume that? ISS is so multiply redundant these days,
it's very unlikely to be abandoned, even if damaged in some way.

You're a broken record Bob. You keep saying the same b.s. over and over
again. But no matter how many times you say it, it doesn't make it
true.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #15  
Old September 22nd 16, 05:11 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Greg \(Strider\) Moore
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Posts: 752
Default Chinese Space Station News

"bob haller" wrote in message
...

skylab was somewhat under control/


For a very loose definition of under control.

the last crew left a solar powered receiver on. when nasa realized it was
going to re enter. they contacted skylab and ordered it to charge its
batteries. without stable power they had blown some controls, and were on
the backup.

they kept skylab in a low drag attitude, to get it as low in the atmosphere
as possible, then ordered it to tumble to dig into the atmosphere over a
low popuation area

came down over the ocean and australia

the chinese station appears they cant control or communicate with it at
all.......


Right, but let's compare. For one thing:

Mass of Taingong -1 8,506kg
Skylab - 77,111kg
Hell, Space shuttle ETs were over 26,000kg.

To give you perspective, a full Soyuz weighs in at about 7,150 kg.
This thing is barely bigger than a Soyuz.

Now, while one can't draw a linear relationship between the mass of an
object and how much will re-enter, as a first order guess, one can guess the
bigger and more massive something is, the more likely a portion of it will
hit the ground. (ignoring details like something like the Soyuz re-entry
module which IS designed to reach the ground).
In fact, NASA has software (developed before Columbia, but unfortunately
refined further from data from Columbia) that given the design of a
satellite/craft can give an idea of what will reach the ground.

And hell, worst case scenario, there are ABM systems that have been
demonstrated in the past.

Taingong is NOT something I'm going to lose sleep over!




So Skylab was about 9 times more massive.


now lets assume A ISS failure where the crew abandons the station or is
unable to control it....

once the station begins tumbling modules will probably come off one at a
time, all along its ground track

once a disaster occurs rules will be tightened

its not a matter of if...... only when. so far we have been lucky......


--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

  #16  
Old September 23rd 16, 12:29 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Bob Haller
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Posts: 3,197
Default Chinese Space Station News

lets not forget how heavy and complex ISS is. plus its getting old. things like the stress of so many obits cycling its temperature.......with so many modules , never before has anything that large and complex been in orbit

hey o ring erosion isnt hazardous. its never caused a real problem..............

hey foam loss isnt hazardous its just a maintence issue.

and ISS is in a ever increasing debris field. space junk is probably one of its biggest enemies........
  #17  
Old September 24th 16, 02:48 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default Chinese Space Station News

In article ,
says...

lets not forget how heavy and complex ISS is. plus its getting old. things like the stress of so many obits cycling its temperature.......with so many modules , never before has anything that large and complex been in orbit


That's all babble. Temperature cycling would only be an issue for bits
that aren't covered by MMOD protection /insulation. Hint: All the
pressurized bits are protected.

hey o ring erosion isnt hazardous. its never caused a real problem..............


You can't summarize the Challenger disaster like that. There is a
*huge* report on what went wrong and why. Perhaps you should actually
read it.

hey foam loss isnt hazardous its just a maintence issue.


You can't summarize the Columbia disaster like that. There is a *huge*
report on what went wrong and why. Perhaps you should actually read it.

and ISS is in a ever increasing debris field. space junk is probably one of its biggest enemies........


Yes, but that's like saying since I live in the Midwest tornadoes are
one of my house's biggest enemies. Note that chances are slim a tornado
will actually hit my house.

Space is big. Mid bogglingly big. ISS still hasn't been it by an MMOD
strike big enough to punch a hole in pressurized module after all these
years. Yes it could happen. Yes there are contingency plans (similar
to tornado drills here in the Midwest). Yes the hatches on ISS close
quickly (unlike on Mir) to isolate a leaky module.

There is risk, but you CONSISTENTLY overestimate the risk.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #18  
Old September 24th 16, 03:14 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Bob Haller
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Posts: 3,197
Default Chinese Space Station News

On Friday, September 23, 2016 at 9:48:48 PM UTC-4, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article ,
says...

lets not forget how heavy and complex ISS is. plus its getting old. things like the stress of so many obits cycling its temperature.......with so many modules , never before has anything that large and complex been in orbit


That's all babble. Temperature cycling would only be an issue for bits
that aren't covered by MMOD protection /insulation. Hint: All the
pressurized bits are protected.

hey o ring erosion isnt hazardous. its never caused a real problem..............


You can't summarize the Challenger disaster like that. There is a
*huge* report on what went wrong and why. Perhaps you should actually
read it.

hey foam loss isnt hazardous its just a maintence issue.


You can't summarize the Columbia disaster like that. There is a *huge*
report on what went wrong and why. Perhaps you should actually read it.

and ISS is in a ever increasing debris field. space junk is probably one of its biggest enemies........


Yes, but that's like saying since I live in the Midwest tornadoes are
one of my house's biggest enemies. Note that chances are slim a tornado
will actually hit my house.

Space is big. Mid bogglingly big. ISS still hasn't been it by an MMOD
strike big enough to punch a hole in pressurized module after all these
years. Yes it could happen. Yes there are contingency plans (similar
to tornado drills here in the Midwest). Yes the hatches on ISS close
quickly (unlike on Mir) to isolate a leaky module.

There is risk, but you CONSISTENTLY overestimate the risk.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.


yep everything is just dandy. the challenger and columbia loss occured because nasa accepted hazardous problems to become ok.
......

hopefully elon musk and space x can get us to mars. nasa isnt capable of that anymore, just look at it SLS.....
  #19  
Old September 24th 16, 08:52 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Rob[_8_]
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Posts: 57
Default Chinese Space Station News

bob haller wrote:
hopefully elon musk and space x can get us to mars. nasa isnt capable of that anymore, just look at it SLS.....


Ask mr Musk why he evaporated AMOS-6 instead of launching it to orbit!
  #20  
Old September 25th 16, 03:16 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,307
Default Chinese Space Station News

In article ,
says...

On Friday, September 23, 2016 at 9:48:48 PM UTC-4, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article ,
says...

lets not forget how heavy and complex ISS is. plus its getting old. things like the stress of so many obits cycling its temperature.......with so many modules , never before has anything that large and complex been in orbit


That's all babble. Temperature cycling would only be an issue for bits
that aren't covered by MMOD protection /insulation. Hint: All the
pressurized bits are protected.

hey o ring erosion isnt hazardous. its never caused a real problem..............


You can't summarize the Challenger disaster like that. There is a
*huge* report on what went wrong and why. Perhaps you should actually
read it.

hey foam loss isnt hazardous its just a maintence issue.


You can't summarize the Columbia disaster like that. There is a *huge*
report on what went wrong and why. Perhaps you should actually read it.

and ISS is in a ever increasing debris field. space junk is probably one of its biggest enemies........


Yes, but that's like saying since I live in the Midwest tornadoes are
one of my house's biggest enemies. Note that chances are slim a tornado
will actually hit my house.

Space is big. Mid bogglingly big. ISS still hasn't been it by an MMOD
strike big enough to punch a hole in pressurized module after all these
years. Yes it could happen. Yes there are contingency plans (similar
to tornado drills here in the Midwest). Yes the hatches on ISS close
quickly (unlike on Mir) to isolate a leaky module.

There is risk, but you CONSISTENTLY overestimate the risk.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.


yep everything is just dandy. the challenger and columbia loss occured because nasa accepted hazardous problems to become ok.
.....


Repeating your assertion doesn't make it completely true. Again, read
the reports. It's clear you have not.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
 




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