Why I am not a believer in Flying Saucers visiting us

My form of the Drake Equation:

N=ns*np*nl*nmc*ncmc*nil*nt

Whe

N = number of civilizations EVER in the galaxy
n = fraction of stars including brown dwarfs
np = fraction of stars having planets
nl = fraction having even single celled life
nmc = fraction having multi-cellular life
ncmc = fraction having complex multi-cellular life
nil = fraction having intelligent life
nt = fraction having technology

Plug in some numbers. I use 4 E 11 for the number of stars. .5 for
the number having planets, .5 for the number having single cellular
life, .03 for the number having multi-cellular life, .3 for the
fraction having complex multi-cellular life, .3 for the fraction
having intelligent life, and .1 for the fraction developing
technology. This gives only 2.7E7 civilizations EVER in the galaxy.

Now, I make an assumption that seems reasonable to me. That after
100,000 yrs, a civilizations technology will be so advanced that it
will “disappear” from view. That is, it will either destroy itself
(unlikely) or will encode itself into the information contained in the
universe so it has no conventional physical form. You may not agree
with this but it makes sense to me given the rate of technical
advances.

I assume that the universe is about 15 billion years old and that life
could not begin to exist until about 5 billion years later when there
was sufficient “metal” in the universe from fast burning stars. So,
since 10 billion years ago, there have been only 100,000 civilization
lifetimes. Divide the number of civilizations EVER in the galaxy by
this number of lifetimes and you get an estimate of the number of
visible civilizations in the galaxy NOW. I get ………only, 270.

270 is a small number in a big galaxy.

Now, the Milky Way galaxy is 100,000 light years (LY) radius and 2000
LY thick giving a volume of 1.26E14 cubic LY or CLY. Assume our
civilizations are spread equally throughout giving each one 4.65 E11
CLY. What is the distance to the edge of such a cube with this
volume, this distance being the distance to the “boundary” of the next
civilization? Simple, take the cube root of this number and divide by
2 giving 3870 LY. This means we can expect that the closest
civilization to be no closer than 3870 LY although since we assumed
the civilizations are located at the center of these cubes it is
actually double this distance or 7740 LY.

I assume that any ET visiting earth can not move faster than c. If
they can move faster than c then the universe gets enormously bigger
because they are no longer constrained by moving just one direction in
time so they could just as easily visit all of the 27 million
civilizations that have ever existed before us and all of those that
will exist after us and soon one civilization will look like another.
Really, how many data points do you need?
So, our ETs move below c.

Say, 10,000 years ago, using gravitational lensing from a star, our
ETs looked at earth and saw the beginnings of civilization. Well, it
took the light from those mud huts 7740 years to reach them before
they hopped in their spaceships moving at .999c meaning their
spaceships will be here in 2260 years.

Now, you can change any of my numbers a lot, say increase the age of a
civilization by a factor of 10 to be a million years and the ultimate
result does not change much, it is still a very long way (over 1000
LY) to the nearest civilization. You would have to change two or more
of my numbers by a large amount to get much of a change and I think
this is unlikely.

Consequently, I do not believe in flying saucers.

Frogwatch wrote:

My form of the Drake Equation:

N=ns*np*nl*nmc*ncmc*nil*nt

Whe

N = number of civilizations EVER in the galaxy
n = fraction of stars including brown dwarfs
np = fraction of stars having planets
nl = fraction having even single celled life
nmc = fraction having multi-cellular life
ncmc = fraction having complex multi-cellular life
nil = fraction having intelligent life
nt = fraction having technology

Plug in some numbers. I use 4 E 11 for the number of stars. .5 for
the number having planets, .5 for the number having single cellular
life, .03 for the number having multi-cellular life, .3 for the
fraction having complex multi-cellular life, .3 for the fraction
having intelligent life, and .1 for the fraction developing
technology. This gives only 2.7E7 civilizations EVER in the galaxy.

Now, I make an assumption that seems reasonable to me. That after
100,000 yrs, a civilizations technology will be so advanced that it
will ´disappear¡ from view. That is, it will either destroy itself
(unlikely) or will encode itself into the information contained in the
universe so it has no conventional physical form. You may not agree
with this but it makes sense to me given the rate of technical
advances.

There's another way a civilization could disappear from *our* view.
What if humans were to develop a fusion drive to be able to colonize the
Kuiper belt and then its technology advanced to the point the rockets
showed very little flame other than neutinos? Humans could colonize the
Ooort cloud. The cloud is so large there's some overlap star to star,
but the result could be a civilization that rarely goes deep enough into
a star's gravity well to deal with planets that have cleared their
orbits. A planet that has cleared its orbit does not have extra comets
to colonize.

Also try runing the math on a civlization that can colonize other star
systems. If the ships go 1% C and it takes a few centuries to build
industry in the colony system to the point it starts launching new
colonies it takes on the order of 10 million years to fill the galaxy.
That's 100 times your guess at the maximum lifespan so at most the
civilization fills 1% of the galaxy before it goes extinct. If your
number of 270 civilizations in the galaxy at the same time is accepted
that suggests that a sizable fraction of civilizations go their entire
existance without encountering any other civilization and that most as
so different by the time they encounter each other they might even
overlap across a wide range. If a civilization could last 10 million
years then we would already see flying saucers. Very low chances.

But combine the Oort cloud hypothesis with the numbers on volume and
expansion and it could happen that we are already embedded in an
interstellar civilization and we don't even know it because they are far
removed from stars.

On Jan 26, 8:07*pm, Frogwatch wrote:

...........................................*That is, it will either destroy itself
(unlikely) or will encode itself into the information contained in the
universe so it has no conventional physical form. *You may not agree
with this but it makes sense to me given the rate of technical
advances.


Thus physical form implies a type of decay that (eventually) invited
conflict between various species of intelligent life - intelligent
life that may have argued more about whose dominion either withstood
or accepted the way in which the "intelligent growth" made itself
known - freely and without reservation - as all intelligent and thus
benevolent species are known to exist.

I assume that the universe is about 15 billion years old and that life
could not begin to exist until about 5 billion years later when there
was sufficient “metal” in the universe from fast burning stars. *So,
since 10 billion years ago, there have been only 100,000 civilization
lifetimes. *Divide the number of civilizations EVER in the galaxy by
this number of lifetimes and you get an estimate of the number of
visible civilizations in the galaxy NOW. *I get ………only, 270.

270 is a small number in a big galaxy.


A small number of ET's in the galaxy does not make our own
civilization's potential for FTL transportation invalid, it just makes
us more like a race of progenitors that may have been tweaking our
biogene over the centuries. Perhaps these progenitors, as well as our
own, may already not be so location-specific, esp. if our own had
already split and migrated to one of the many metal-rich G2V stars
existing throughout the galaxy.


Now, the Milky Way galaxy is 100,000 light years (LY) radius and 2000
LY thick giving a volume of 1.26E14 cubic LY or CLY. *Assume our
civilizations are spread equally throughout giving each one 4.65 E11
CLY. *What is the distance to the edge of such a cube with this
volume, this distance being the distance to the “boundary” of the next
civilization? *Simple, take the cube root of this number and divide by
2 giving 3870 LY. *This means we can expect that the closest
civilization to be no closer than 3870 LY although since we assumed
the civilizations are located at the center of these cubes it is
actually double this distance or 7740 LY.


Read last point.


I assume that any ET visiting earth can not move faster than c. *If
they can move faster than c then the universe gets enormously bigger
because they are no longer constrained by moving just one direction in
time so they could just as easily visit all of the 27 million
civilizations that have ever existed before us and all of those that
will exist after us and soon one civilization will look like another.
Really, how many data points do you need?
So, our ETs move below c.


I'm not so sure that your "one direction in time" works with parallel
universe theory. According to this theory, there may be an infinite
number of directions in time, while only a small fraction of the
universe that supports life might be a universe in which protons could
not transform into neutrons, for example.

This event would have happened after the first second - 3 minutes
after creation, ending up with a parallel universe consisting of 3
fundamental forces instead of the usual 4. Now imagine how this
scenario, played out over an alternate civilization's timeline, would
affect even the consciousness of the alien life form - perhaps some
form of our own progenitors were created this way - perhaps not. One
might wonder which one ended up with a life expectancy of over a
thousand years.

All ET's therefore may or may not have moved above c, while some have
discovered a life-changing implication that FTL velocities might
forfeit the weak nuclear force, with other parameters changing the way
in which nuclear fusion occurs in (specifically) the metal-rich stars.

In that case, the ET's would have had to perform an entirely new
survey of their own galactic sector, in order to find out where the
new habitable sectors lie, with a completely different set of
civilizations, developing under completely different circumstances.


Say, 10,000 years ago, using gravitational lensing from a star, our
ETs looked at earth and saw the beginnings of civilization. *Well, it
took the light from those mud huts 7740 years to reach them before
they hopped in their spaceships moving at .999c meaning their
spaceships will be here in 2260 years.

Now, you can change any of my numbers a lot, say increase the age of a
civilization by a factor of 10 to be a million years and the ultimate
result does not change much, it is still a very long way (over 1000
LY) to the nearest civilization. *You would have to change two or more
of my numbers by a large amount to get much of a change and I think
this is unlikely.

Consequently, I do not believe in flying saucers.


Never heard of the Nephilim? Ezekiel's wheel? Area 51?

Unless you're of the reptilian genre, perhaps no more than 90
civilizations throughout the (underground's) known cosmos are at war
with the other 2/3.

In that case, the total of our original universe's civilizations
amounted to 90(3) = 270, which is what you have already given, in
addition to 270 of the alternate universe's, amounting to 540.

This of course, assumes that only one parallel universe exists
alongside our own, with ET's traveling between universes, and
intermingling with civilizations to form an altogether new species of
ET.

If we allow species intermingling over time, then we can add another
270 "species specific" civilizations over time, amounting to a grand
total of 270(3) = 810.

Other parallel universes might yield additional increments of 270.


American

"To many, politics is a game with two sides and a fence."

"We seek to make the unconscious a self-made machine."

- Anon

On Jan 27, 12:34*pm, American wrote:
On Jan 26, 8:07*pm, Frogwatch wrote:

...........................................*That is, it will either destroy itself
(unlikely) or will encode itself into the information contained in the
universe so it has no conventional physical form. *You may not agree
with this but it makes sense to me given the rate of technical
advances.

Thus physical form implies a type of decay that (eventually) invited
conflict between various species of intelligent life - intelligent
life that may have argued more about whose dominion either withstood
or accepted the way in which the "intelligent growth" made itself
known - freely and without reservation - as all intelligent and thus
benevolent species are known to exist.

I assume that the universe is about 15 billion years old and that life
could not begin to exist until about 5 billion years later when there
was sufficient “metal” in the universe from fast burning stars. *So,
since 10 billion years ago, there have been only 100,000 civilization
lifetimes. *Divide the number of civilizations EVER in the galaxy by
this number of lifetimes and you get an estimate of the number of
visible civilizations in the galaxy NOW. *I get ………only, 270.

270 is a small number in a big galaxy.

A small number of ET's in the galaxy does not make our own
civilization's potential for FTL transportation invalid, it just makes
us more like a race of progenitors that may have been tweaking our
biogene over the centuries. Perhaps these progenitors, as well as our
own, may already not be so location-specific, esp. if our own had
already split and migrated to one of the many metal-rich G2V stars
existing throughout the galaxy.



Now, the Milky Way galaxy is 100,000 light years (LY) radius and 2000
LY thick giving a volume of 1.26E14 cubic LY or CLY. *Assume our
civilizations are spread equally throughout giving each one 4.65 E11
CLY. *What is the distance to the edge of such a cube with this
volume, this distance being the distance to the “boundary” of the next
civilization? *Simple, take the cube root of this number and divide by
2 giving 3870 LY. *This means we can expect that the closest
civilization to be no closer than 3870 LY although since we assumed
the civilizations are located at the center of these cubes it is
actually double this distance or 7740 LY.

Read last point.



I assume that any ET visiting earth can not move faster than c. *If
they can move faster than c then the universe gets enormously bigger
because they are no longer constrained by moving just one direction in
time so they could just as easily visit all of the 27 million
civilizations that have ever existed before us and all of those that
will exist after us and soon one civilization will look like another.
Really, how many data points do you need?
So, our ETs move below c.

I'm not so sure that your "one direction in time" works with parallel
universe theory. According to this theory, there may be an infinite
number of directions in time, while only a small fraction of the
universe that supports life might be a universe in which protons could
not transform into neutrons, for example.

This event would have happened after the first second - 3 minutes
after creation, ending up with a parallel universe consisting of 3
fundamental forces instead of the usual 4. Now imagine how this
scenario, played out over an alternate civilization's timeline, would
affect even the consciousness of the alien life form - perhaps some
form of our own progenitors were created this way - perhaps not. One
might wonder which one ended up with a life expectancy of over a
thousand years.

All ET's therefore may or may not have moved above c, while some have
discovered a life-changing implication that FTL velocities might
forfeit the weak nuclear force, with other parameters changing the way
in which nuclear fusion occurs in (specifically) the metal-rich stars.

In that case, the ET's would have had to perform an entirely new
survey of their own galactic sector, in order to find out where the
new habitable sectors lie, with a completely different set of
civilizations, developing under completely different circumstances.





Say, 10,000 years ago, using gravitational lensing from a star, our
ETs looked at earth and saw the beginnings of civilization. *Well, it
took the light from those mud huts 7740 years to reach them before
they hopped in their spaceships moving at .999c meaning their
spaceships will be here in 2260 years.

Now, you can change any of my numbers a lot, say increase the age of a
civilization by a factor of 10 to be a million years and the ultimate
result does not change much, it is still a very long way (over 1000
LY) to the nearest civilization. *You would have to change two or more
of my numbers by a large amount to get much of a change and I think
this is unlikely.

Consequently, I do not believe in flying saucers.

Never heard of the Nephilim? Ezekiel's wheel? Area 51?

Unless you're of the reptilian genre, perhaps no more than 90
civilizations throughout the (underground's) known cosmos are at war
with the other 2/3.

In that case, the total of our original universe's civilizations
amounted to 90(3) = 270, which is what you have already given, in
addition to 270 of the alternate universe's, amounting to 540.

This of course, assumes that only one parallel universe exists
alongside our own, with ET's traveling between universes, and
intermingling with civilizations to form an altogether new species of
ET.

If we allow species intermingling over time, then we can add another
270 "species specific" civilizations over time, amounting to a grand
total of 270(3) = 810.

Other parallel universes might yield additional increments of 270.

American

"To many, politics is a game with two sides and a fence."

"We seek to make the unconscious a self-made machine."

*- Anon

Reptilian? I am an amphibian you dimwit.

"Frogwatch" wrote in message
...

My form of the Drake Equation:


The Drake Equation doesn't take into account
the latest sciences of self organzing systems.
Think of the probabilities of life this way.

Both a gravity well, and a fitness peak, follow
inverse square law behavior. Which means
that black holes and life are analogues of
each other. Both are rare, but absolutely
inevitable given enough time.

"They" are out there, or will be at least.
But the reason I think we won't be visited
or visit is simply that it's so much faster
and easier to look, instead of travel.

And by the time we could possibly travel that
far, we'll have probably figured out
whatever it is we wanted to know
in the first place.

It may be enough to remotely sense that life
is elsewhere.