Dangerous Mentality

I think NASA has come a long way during the last two and a half years. From
the public's perspective, nothing can be a more obvious demonstrator of that
than the upcoming lunch. But the one thing I don't like is how NASA
officials keep self-assuring themselves that they have raised the safety
standards of a space launch. I think this aire of confidence -- the pat
ourselves on the back mentality -- is very dangerous, in that you're lying
to yourself by denying the inherent risks invovled in all space missions.
In fact, I have a feeling that after the next launch, which has a very high
probability of success in the first place (at least 111/113), NASA will be
shouting a big proud "We told you so! We told you it's safe!", when in fact,
all they have done is demonstrate a very marginal improvement in the success
rate (at least 112/114). In othe words, just because I don't get into a
wreck on my drive over to the bank, it doesn't necessarily mean that I'm a
good driver. Although, it doesn't necessarily mean that I'm a bad driver
either -- it's just that there's no way of knowing.

They should approach it with a degree of humility, with statements more
along the lines of, "We're launching not because we think we've improved the
safety to acceptable levels, but because we're not quitters, and we're not
going to let past tragedies stop us from making future endavors. There's a
good chance that it'll end in a successful mission, but there's also a good
chance that it won't. We tried our best."

Maybe they've already adopted this mentality, but we won't know for sure
until Discovery completes its ground roll at Edwards, and until someone at
NASA picks up the microphone at the press conference.

Yuto Shinagawa wrote:
I think NASA has come a long way during the last two and a half years. From
the public's perspective, nothing can be a more obvious demonstrator of that
than the upcoming lunch. But the one thing I don't like is how NASA
officials keep self-assuring themselves that they have raised the safety
standards of a space launch. ...

I think that the decision to end the shuttle program
early, in 2010, tells us all we need to know about
what NASA thinks about shuttle's inherent safety,
especially given Griffin's commitment to shut it
down. Some Congressmen are trying to make him keep
shuttle flying longer than he wants!

- Ed Kyle