A Space & astronomy forum. SpaceBanter.com

Go Back   Home » SpaceBanter.com forum » Space Science » Space Station
Site Map Home Authors List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Web Partners

A pair of anniversaries



 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old January 25th 04, 07:00 PM
rschmitt23
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default A pair of anniversaries

Today, 25Jan2004, marks the 20th anniversary of President Reagan's State of
the Union speech that got the ball rolling on the permanent space station:

"Tonight, I am directing NASA to develop a permanently manned space station
and to do it within a decade. A space station will permit quantum leaps in
our research in science, communications and in metals and life-saving
medicines which can be manufactured only in space. We want our friends to
help us meet these challenges and share in their benefits. NASA will invite
other countries to participate so we can strengthen peace, build prosperity
and expand freedom for all who share our goals."

NASA's initial idea was an "8 and 8" plan, 8 years to construct the station
(completion date sometime in 1992) and development cost of $8B ($FY83, about
$13B in todays bucks). Needless to say, this plan has been junked for some
time now. We presently have a half-built ISS with an indefinite completion
date, a two-person crew instead of 6 or 7, and development cost over $30B
and counting.

And in February this year we celebrate the 30th anniversary of the
completion of the Skylab program. On 8Feb1974 the third Skylab crew returned
to Earth after 84 days in orbit marking the end of that effort. The nine
Skylab astronauts spent 171 days in space and while aboard Skylab had logged
over 3200 manhours of scientific research on solar astronomy, Earth
resources, medical tests, engineering experiments, comet observations (Comet
Kohoutek) and miscellaneous research such as student experiments.

Skylab grew out of the Apollo Applications Program (AAP) initiated by George
Mueller, NASA's manned spaceflight administrator, in August 1965. (One of my
first jobs as a fledgling engineer at McDonnell Aircraft Corp. was working
on AAP.) For the next three years the focus was on von Braun's "wet
workshop" concept, an S-IVB stage launched with tanks filled with propellant
as part of a Saturn IB stack. In late 1968 it became clear that two or three
Apollo moon landings would be cancelled and that several Saturn V vehicles
would become available. Mueller redirected AAP into a "dry workshop" design
launched on the Saturn V. On 20July 1969, during the Apollo 11 mission, NASA
officially announced that the dry workshop concept would be built and in
February 1970 the program was named "Skylab". Skylab was launched on
14May1973, less that 4 years after the program was officially started.

President Reagan's space station plan was not so fortunate. The program
actually started in May 1982 with the formation of John Hodge's "Space
Station Task Force". Hodge's group spent about 18 months sorting through the
various space station options The initial configuration developed by the
Hodge Group in April 1983 was a modest space station in a 28.5-degree orbit
carrying a crew of five to eight astronauts with 50-60 kW of electric power.
The station would include two laboratory modules each with volume of 2,100
cubic feet, a satellite servicing capability, and the capability to
accommodate several attached payloads. The space station would be augmented
by two free-flying platforms, one in a low-inclination orbit for
astrophysics research, and one in a high-inclination orbit for earth
resources programs. Development would start in FY 1987 and initial occupancy
of the space station would occur in FY 1991. The expected cost for
development and initial operational capability was $7.5-9B ($FY83, $12-14B
in todays bucks). NASA Administrator Jim Beggs decided that $8B ($FY83)
would be the number used in presentations to Congress.

After Reagan's go-ahead, NASA found that it needed as much support as
possible from all potential space station users in order to get Congress on
board. This led to a noticeable "Christmas Tree Effect" which caused the
size of the station to steadily increase. During the Reagan years the space
station program lurched through several major redesigns (Power Tower, Dual
Keel, Modified Dual Keel) ending up in June1988 in the Space Station Freedom
(SSF) configuration (28 degree inclination, 490 foot-long truss including
solar panels, 3-4 pressurized modules each 14 ft dia x 44 ft long, 75 kW
electric power initially). The price tag on SSF development was an estimated
$20-25B.

Although he started the program, Reagan did not fight very hard for the
necessary budget to keep the program on the initial 8-year development
schedule. During FY85-89 NASA required about $9B current dollars) to stay on
schedule, but the actual Reagan request was $3.7B (current dollars). So when
the G.H.W. Bush administration came to town in Jan 1989, NASA's space
station program was seriously underfunded and had experienced nearly 100%
growth in development cost since its inception.

During the Elder Bush years (Jan 89-Jan93), the space station story is
largely about NASA's effort to cut the SSF development cost. NASA
established new guidelines for SSF on 2 November 1990:

a) no more than four shuttle flights per year for SSF assembly
b) use a phased "buy it by the yard" approach for SSF construction
c) no more than $2.6B ($FY91, $3.3B current bucks) per year for SSF
d) initial crew reduced to four astronauts instead of eight
e) life sciences and material sciences have highest priorities on SSF
f) first SSF assembly flight in March 1995
g) no free-flying platforms
h) no use of expendable heavy lift launch vehicles (HLLVs) for SSF assembly
i) no target date for completion of SSF assembly (SSF would be evolutionary)

In March 1991 NASA embarked on a 90-day SSF redesign effort demanded by
Congress. The truss length was reduced to 350 feet, inital electric power
was reduced to 30kW, length of the pressurized modules was reduced from 44
to 27 feet. Initial occupancy slipped to late 1996. The SSF effort dragged
on during 1991 until Feb 1992 when VP Dan Quayle fired NASA Administrator
Dick Truly, who was replaced in April by Dan Goldin. The new Administrator
spent the rest of 1992 defending the SSF in Congress while his Red Team/Blue
Team evaluators tried to figure out how to fix the ailing space station
program that was now entering its 9th year without a pound of payload lifted
off the launch pad so far.

1993 was the watershed year for the space station. By November 1993 the
Clinton Administration had completely changed the program. SSF was junked
and the new "International Space Station Alpha (ISSA)" would be built around
a pair of Russian modules, the FGB and the Service Module (which was built
to be the core module of the Mir-2 station). NASA hyped this revision
maintaining that the Russian contribution would save 2 years and $2B in the
development process. This turned out to be wishful thinking. The U.S. and
Russia were now partners in the space station and, to help the Russians pay
for their contribution, NASA began to fly astronauts to the Mir station for
extended periods of time. So after nearly 10 years of stumbling from one
design to another, NASA had finally established a "point design" for its
permanent space station and got on with the business of constructing flight
hardware.

During the next 5 years NASA's main problems were keeping development costs
under control (not too successfully) and prodding and threatening the
Russian Space Agency to provide the necessary budgets to keep the Service
Module development on schedule. The first ISS module, the FGB, was launched
in November 1998, followed by the first U.S. module in December. Since the
inception of the program, it had taken NASA nearly 15 years to get the first
component of its permanent space station into orbit. Another 19 months would
pass until the most critical part of the ISS, namely the Service Module, was
launched in July 2000. On 31 October 2000 the first ISS crew, ISS Expedition
1, was launched from the Baikonur facility on a Soyuz ELV in a Soyuz
spacecraft, nearly 17 years after the start of the program.

For the next 2 years, NASA kept more or less on schedule as a steady string
of shuttle launches supported ISS construction. Then on 1Feb2003 Columbia
was lost on a non-ISS science mission and ISS construction was halted. A
two-person caretaker crew is aboard ISS now keeping the station alive while
NASA works out the shuttle problems. It's anyone's guess when the shuttle
will return to flight (probably no sooner than Jan 2005). The ISS final
configuration and completion date are also indeterminate at this time.

NASA has continually hyped the ISS as a "world-class scientific
laboratory", but the pace and progress of this work has been very slow.
Prior to the Columbia disaster, the 3-person ISS crew was logging about 20
manhours per week of scientific work, with about 8 manhours devoted to U.S.
experiments. At this rate it will take over 7 years for the ISS crew to log
as many scientific manhours on U.S. experiments as the nine Skylab
astronauts managed 30 years ago.

Last week President Bush the Younger announced his ambitious return to the
Moon/let's go to Mars initiative, which generated the expected split between
supporters and detractors (about 50/50). However, one thing is clear. The
history of the ISS program during the past 20 years does not give a warm and
cozy feeling that the present NASA would be able to take on the management
responsibilities of such a Moon/Mars program and stay on schedule and keep
within budget.

For more info on this interesting history, see chapters 46-52 of my recent
book (2002) on U.S. manned spaceflight in the 20th century.

Later
Ray Schmitt


  #2  
Old January 25th 04, 08:48 PM
Hallerb
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default A pair of anniversaries


Today, 25Jan2004, marks the 20th anniversary of President Reagan's State of
the Union speech that got the ball rolling on the permanent space station:


Great recap!

ISS should be used as a model for how NOT to do whatever comes next!
  #3  
Old January 26th 04, 08:19 AM
John Doe
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default A pair of anniversaries

rschmitt23 wrote:
time now. We presently have a half-built ISS with an indefinite completion
date, a two-person crew instead of 6 or 7, and development cost over $30B
and counting.


Well, the ISS's crew size is 3 from the ISS systems point of view. It is down
to 2 only for resupply logistics.

Also, aren't all modules except the hab/node3 complete and ready for launch by
now ? If not, which modules aren't yet ready ?
  #4  
Old January 27th 04, 01:11 AM
rschmitt23
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default A pair of anniversaries

Yes, most of the ISS modules have already been fabricated and remain in
storage at KSC or elsewhere awaiting launch in the indefinite future. I
suppose I should have said "half-assembled" in order to be more precise.

Later
Ray Schmitt


"John Doe" wrote in message
...
rschmitt23 wrote:
time now. We presently have a half-built ISS with an indefinite

completion
date, a two-person crew instead of 6 or 7, and development cost over

$30B
and counting.


Well, the ISS's crew size is 3 from the ISS systems point of view. It is

down
to 2 only for resupply logistics.

Also, aren't all modules except the hab/node3 complete and ready for

launch by
now ? If not, which modules aren't yet ready ?



 




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Selected SRB Pc (MSFC) from Lift-Off [51-L] John Maxson Space Shuttle 70 October 8th 03 07:50 PM
Review of the 'Unmatched Pair' Intro (51-L) John Maxson Space Shuttle 0 September 29th 03 06:36 PM
Booster Crossing Chuck Stewart Space Shuttle 124 September 15th 03 12:43 AM
Sad turn Charleston Space Shuttle 93 August 12th 03 02:31 AM


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 07:17 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2024 SpaceBanter.com.
The comments are property of their posters.