Jonathan's Space Report No. 515

Jonathan's Space Report
No. 515 2003 Dec 5, Cambridge, MA
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Recent Launches
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The Russian Space Forces launched a UR-100NU (RS-18/SS-19) rocket on Dec
5 at 0600 UTC from Baykonur. According to TASS the rocket was a standard
suborbital missile training launch, which delivers dummy warheads to
Kamchatka, but a Reuters story claims it is the first orbital launch of
the Strela version of the rocket and placed a dummy payload in a 120 to
160 km low orbit. The situation remains unclear at this writing.

According to Kommersant newspaper, the Russian Space Forces have
announced that the five debris pieces from Kosmos-2399 I mentioned in
JSR 514 are not from an explosion, but (as I speculated) from a failed
film capsule recovery. Several of the pieces are actually confused
tracking of a single piece, the extremely long and thin unreeled
photographic film, flapping free in low orbit. I hate it when the same
thing happens when I take a tape out of the VCR, I imagine it must be
even more annoying when it happens in orbit. The capsule is probably
object 2003-35E, which decayed most slowly and reentered on Nov 30.

Two Japanese spy satellites were lost during launch on Nov 29. The H-IIA
rocket was destroyed 11 min after launch. This would be half way into
the second-stage burn. Reports indicate that one of the two massive
(10-tonne) solid boosters failed to separate from the first stage as
planned less than two minutes after launch, possibly because leaking hot
gas burned through the command wires. The extra mass decreased the first
stage's acceleration. The first stage and the attached booster fell away
about 6 minutes after launch, leaving the second stage to operate
normally but starting off low and slow. According to the Kyodo news
agency the H-IIA F6 reached an altitude of 422 km. This is similar to
the planned altitude, but with the extra mass during first stage burn
the rocket's velocity would have been far too low to reach orbit. JAXA
has not released information on the velocity achieved.

The two satellites carried by H-IIA F6, IGS-2a and IGS-2b, were
classified Information Gathering Satellites built by Mitsubishi, one
with an optical imaging payload and the other with a radar payload. They
would have joined IGS-1a and IGS-1b in orbit to form an operational
Japanese space reconnaissance system.

This is the first failure of the H-IIA, developed as an improved and
simplified version of the H-II rocket. The Japan Aerospace Agency
(JAXA), formed on October 1, now has to add this to the failure of the
Midori (ADEOS) 2 satellite and the ongoing problems with the Nozomi Mars
probe, making an inauspicious beginning for the organization.

For reference, here are previous H-II and H-IIA flights. All launches to
date are from Tanegashima's Yoshinobu LP1.

Flight Date Variant Fairing Payloads Result

H-II-1F 1994 Feb 3 H-II 4S OREX (Ryusei) Success
VEP (Myojo)
H-II-2F 1994 Aug 28 H-II 4S ETS-6 (Kiku-6) Success
H-II-3F 1995 Mar 18 H-II/2-SSB 5/4D SFU Success
GMS-5 (Himawari-5)
H-II-4F 1996 Aug 17 H-II 5S ADEOS-1 (Midori) Success
H-II-6F 1997 Nov 27 H-II 4/4D TRMM Success
ETS-7 (Kiku-7)
H-II-5F 1998 Feb 21 H-II 4S COMETS (Kakehashi) Stage 2
underburn
H-II-8F 1999 Nov 15 H-II 5S MTSAT Failed to
orbit
H-IIA-1F 2001 Aug 29 H-IIA 202 4S VEP-2 Success
LRE
H-IIA-2F 2002 Feb 4 H-IIA 2024 4/4D-LC VEP-3 Success
MDS-1 (Tsubasa)
DASH
H-IIA-3F 2002 Sep 10 H-IIA 2024 4/4D-LC USERS Success
DRTS (Kodama) Success
H-IIA-4F 2002 Dec 14 H-IIA 202 5S ADEOS-2 (Midori-2) Success
H-IIA-5F 2003 Mar 28 H-IIA 2024 4/4D-LC IGS-1a/IGS-1b Success
H-IIA-6F 2003 Nov 29 H-IIA 2024 4/4D-lC IGS-2a/IGS-2b Failed to
orbit

(Note: ADEOS-1 and ADEOS-2 suffered later payload failures; DASH failed
to separate from the launch vehicle; and DRTS and ETS-6 had payload
propulsion
problems. However, these problems were not related to the H-II/H-IIA.)

Two Energiya Yamal-200 communications satellites for the Russian Gazkom
company were launched by Proton on Nov 24. The satellites, with masses
of 1360 and 1320 kg, were placed in geosynchronous drift orbit by a
Krunichev Proton-K with an Energiya Blok DM-2M (11S861-01) upper stage.
Space Command has not yet issued elements for both satellites.

Lockheed Martin launched an Atlas IIAS from Vandenberg Air Force Base on
Dec 2. The rocket orbited a payload for the National Reconnaissance
Office. The NROL-18 "Libra" launch is thought to carry the second in a
series of ocean reconnaissance systems developed by Lockheed
Martin/Denver. The Centaur stage entered a 160 x 1200 km transfer orbit
and then ignited at apogee to reach a 1010 x 1210 km x 63.4 deg
operational orbit. It separated from its payload 74 min after launch.
According to optical observers, three objects have been seen in orbit,
including the Centaur, implying that the payload separated in two (and
not three) shortly after launch.

The ocean reconnaissance satellites are believed to be the follow-ons to
a series begun in 1976 which used three satellites flying in formation,
using radio interferometry to locate ships by their transmissions. It
was therefore expected that the new Atlas-launched series would also use
three satellites, but only two objects were seen in addition to the
Centaur on the first launch in Sep 2001. A failure was rumoured on that
mission, so observers were expecting to see three satellites this time
too (or maybe four, if a separate dispenser was placed in orbit).
However, since only two objects were seen this time (and it will be a
week or two before we know for sure that there isn't a third) we
conclude that the new series uses a different technical approach
involving only two satellites.

Table of Recent Launches
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Date UT Name Launch Vehicle Site Mission
INTL.

DES.
Oct 1 0403 Galaxy 13 Zenit-3SL SL Odyssey Comms
44B
Oct 15 0100 Shenzhou 5 ) CZ-2F Jiuquan Spaceship
45A
SZ-5 OM ) Imaging
45G
Oct 17 0452 IRS-P6 PSLV Sriharikota Imaging
46B
Oct 18 0538 Soyuz TMA-3 Soyuz-FG Baykonur PL1/5 Spaceship
47A
Oct 18 1617 DMSP F16 Titan 23G Vandenberg SLC4W Weather
48A
Oct 21 0316 ZY-1 No. 2 ) CZ-4B Taiyuan Imaging
49A
CX-1 ) Comms
49B
Oct 30 1343 SERVIS-1 Rokot Plesetsk Tech
50A
Nov 3 0720 JB-4? CZ-2D Jiuquan Micrograv
51A
Nov 14 1601 Zhongxing-20 CZ-3A Xichang Comms
52A
Nov 24 0622 Yamal-200 KA-1 ) Proton-K/DM-2M Baykonur PL81/23 Comms
53A
Yamal-200 KA-2 ) Comms
53B
Nov 29 0433 IGS-2a ) H-IIA 2024 Tanegashima Imaging
F02
IGS-2b ) Radar
F02
Dec 2 1004 USA 173? ) Atlas IIAS Vandenberg SLC3E Sigint
54A
USA 173 PL/2? ) Sigint
54

..-------------------------------------------------------------------------.
| Jonathan McDowell | phone : (617) 495-7176 |
| Somerville MA 02143 | |
| c/o | |
| Center for Astrophysics, | |
| 60 Garden St, MS6 | |
| Cambridge MA 02138 | inter : |
| USA | |
|
|
| JSR: http://www.planet4589.org/jsr.html



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Jacques :-)

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