Bye-bye INF treaty?

Pat Flannery wrote:

Bill Bonde wrote:

Feel free to explain how Iraq could fire conventional missiles at Israel
and Saudi Arabia in the 1991 Gulf War and not risk getting nuked (as
long as it didn't use WMDs).

They did risk getting nuked in the case of Israel.

If they'd used WMDs. Israel let the scuds land and then had their civil
defence respond as if they were chemical or biological weapons. They
didn't, however, nuke Iraq.


We told the Israelis we'd send Patriot missiles to defend them, and also
pay them a whole ****load of money outright not to start shooting stuff
back at Iraq.

As long as Iraq kept it convention, however, Israel would as well.



That being said, it still amazes me they didn't nuke Baghdad around ten
minutes after the first Scud hit on general principles.

You are making that argument for what the US will supposedly do in case
it's shot at with ICBMs. Using a nuclear weapon is a huge deal and I
suspect that a long missile that is likely conventional doesn't raise to
the point of warranting such a thing.



Would missile attacks on Europe constitute
something materially different from those on Israel? So would Europe
retaliate while the missiles were in the air using its nuclear weapons,
assuming Europe even had such things. The next step is what makes it
different if an ICBM is fired at New York City.


I think range is perceived as intent. The further you send it, the more
dangerous it's perceived to be.

I know that's the feeling, that an ICBM could only have a nuke in it,
however I've been arguing that's by no means some ironclad long term
rule. It was just true because the US and the USSR did it that way in
the Cold War.



That's what killed the conventionally warheaded Trident SLBM program, we
may know it has a conventional warhead, but the Russians wouldn't, and
might do something silly when they saw one launched via their radar and
satellites... you know... like launching on warning.

I don't think you have to launch on warning if you see one enemy missile
coming your way. Maybe you could launch whatever that missile was seen
as targeting, especially if it's ballistic. In any case, the rules are
changed now that longer range missiles are coming into the hands of even
rogue powers.



--
Bush say global warm-warm not real
Even though ice gone and no seals
Polar bears can't find their meals
Grow as thin as Ally McBeals