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Musk plans for mars



 
 
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  #1  
Old October 1st 16, 02:55 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Default Musk plans for mars

In article ,
says...

http://jalopnik.com/heres-how-to-fix...ars-1787163420

More about Musk's Mars design... and how to tweak it!


Really, Jalopnik? That place is *not* where you want to go for sound
technical articles.

The proposed "tweaks" increase complexity greatly, while reducing the
size of the transport ship. This is just stupid. Cost scales closely
with complexity, but only loosely with size.

Jeff

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  #2  
Old October 1st 16, 11:49 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Bob Haller
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Default Musk plans for mars

On Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 5:33:54 PM UTC-4, JF Mezei wrote:
How realistic is it to build a ship with 100 or as Musk really wants 200
people enclosed for ~3-4 months, and expect these people to be
functional after being lethargic in 0-g all that time ?

Also, when they land, since there won't be a JFK airport with airtight
jetways to welcome the people, won't they each need to have their own
suit (perhaps a requirement to live on mars anyways) and that would take
up a lot of space as cargo.

The logistics of unloading the ship would be interesting.


just send lots of cargo ships, with redundant everything. so some failures can be tolerated
  #3  
Old October 1st 16, 11:54 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Bob Haller
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Default Musk plans for mars

at some point a nuke booster for travel from earth orbit to mars will be necessary..

to shorten travel time, and lessen supplies for the manned portion of flights.

a realtively small but very fast booster would be nice to have available for emergencies.

hey the water recycler is totally kaput, get earth to sen a replacement immediately!

of course sending one manned vehicle to mars with 2 backups flying close by will also help

  #4  
Old October 2nd 16, 01:29 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Alain Fournier[_3_]
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Default Musk plans for mars

On Oct/1/2016 at 5:33 PM, JF Mezei wrote :
How realistic is it to build a ship with 100 or as Musk really wants 200
people enclosed for ~3-4 months, and expect these people to be
functional after being lethargic in 0-g all that time ?


It isn't easier for a person to be functional after ~3-4 months enclosed
with 5 others to be functional than for the same person to be functional
after the trip with 100 others. So unless you think that going to Mars
isn't practical under any circumstances, the fact that they will be 100
doesn't change much in this respect.

Also, when they land, since there won't be a JFK airport with airtight
jetways to welcome the people, won't they each need to have their own
suit (perhaps a requirement to live on mars anyways) and that would take
up a lot of space as cargo.

The logistics of unloading the ship would be interesting.


It's not as if you have to unload the ship in 15 minutes. I don't see
a problem here.


Alain Fournier

  #5  
Old October 2nd 16, 05:21 AM posted to sci.space.policy
William Mook[_2_]
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Default Musk plans for mars

On Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 10:33:54 AM UTC+13, JF Mezei wrote:
How realistic is it to build a ship with 100 or as Musk really wants 200
people enclosed for ~3-4 months, and expect these people to be
functional after being lethargic in 0-g all that time ?


Suspended animation solves this problem. So does virtual reality with a suit that has motorised movement.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...neys-Mars.html

https://www.nasa.gov/content/torpor-...stasis-to-mars

http://www.space.com/22520-incredibl...animation.html

http://www.livescience.com/53870-nul...lity-suit.html

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-con...irtual-reality

This is all built into the biosuit which is designed for long-duration wear. The functions would be integrated into the suit and be part of the training for each traveller.


Also, when they land, since there won't be a JFK airport with airtight
jetways to welcome the people,


Well, since robots can be sent on ahead capable of building such things, this is not necessarily true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvN9Ri1GmuY

http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/r...-6-meter-tower

Certainly not true after the first group arrives.

won't they each need to have their own
suit (perhaps a requirement to live on mars anyways) and that would take
up a lot of space as cargo.


Newer counter-pressure designs using MEMS life support designed for long-duration, would require very little added space.

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/617047main_4..._spacesuit.pdf

These would be like second skins and dispense with the need for bathtubs, showers, laundry, and even toilets.

However, settlers will come with tons of gear, a spacesuit, even an old-style one, would be a small part of that total space.


The logistics of unloading the ship would be interesting.


Arthur Clarke had that worked out back in 1968 - in his movie 2001;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jgpp7YCA0_Y

The interesting bit starts at 5:17 - you land in an airlock with the door open and then close the door, and pressurise the entire ship prior to breaking its seal, normalising pressure, and opening all hatches.



  #6  
Old October 2nd 16, 06:39 AM posted to sci.space.policy
William Mook[_2_]
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Posts: 3,840
Default Musk plans for mars

On Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 11:54:14 AM UTC+13, bob haller wrote:
at some point a nuke booster for travel from earth orbit to mars will be necessary..

to shorten travel time, and lessen supplies for the manned portion of flights.

a realtively small but very fast booster would be nice to have available for emergencies.

hey the water recycler is totally kaput, get earth to sen a replacement immediately!

of course sending one manned vehicle to mars with 2 backups flying close by will also help


Suspended animation allows launching people on a regular basis in drones, that remain in earth orbit with zero boil off cryogenics, until the synodic period alignment, and they are all blasted to Mars around the same time.

So, if we send 200 people at a time three times a day, over a 2.1 year period you have one flight every eight hours, and over the synodic period 2,300 ships are in parking orbit. This lets you service the ships and deal with problems prior to departure. The entire fleet leaves as a group when the planets are in proper alignment. They fly as a group. You have a capacity of say 210 people per ship - and if fewer than 5% of the ships fail (which is highly likely that fewer than 1% fail) then people can be transported from the failed ship to any of the remaining ships. So, you have a very very high probability of success.

Say 1% fail - so that 23 fail and 2287 arrive - with 202 people each - 100% of the people - arrive - with 23 bad ships - the good ships arrive at different parts of the planet, where robots were sent before to build cities. People settle down into homes that were built ahead of time - to their specifications using virtual reality and computer interfaces - and stocked with their personal items that were sent ahead - or sent along with them.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/r...-6-meter-tower

http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/r...l-marc-raibert

So, each person pays $200,000 - and in return they get a permanent homestead - supplied with food, medicines, AI, built to their specification, free of all the restrictions and risks of living on an over populated Earth, stocked several tons of whatever is they'd like to take along. So, you put your money down, and spend time training, and designing, and building your ideal space habitat. On the day you get launched into parking orbit, and awake on Mars, being conducted to your personal Mars estate by your own personal team of AI driven robots.

This would have wide appeal.

2300 ships over 2.1 years - carrying 460,000 people - one way to Mars - are allocated to 14 'towns' of 2 sq km each - the size and lifestyle of Monaco! You choose your location based on a high resolution orbital survey - followed by a ground survey and selection team - of 1400 town sites. These are put on the internet, and people select them - and negotiate with one another - and when a town has achieved 1/3 its designed size (10,000 people) it is switched 'live' and construction commences.

With 2300 ships at $40 million earned for each - we have sales of $92 billion! This ship shown in the video can put up 800,000 pounds - and with 200 people each - that's two tons per person - so in suspended animation we can have 7,500 pounds of cargo accompany each person. A family of four could haul up 15 tons of personal belongings.

By contrast each CITY - would require - ONE team of self replicating robots - to be landed - and several could be landed with ONE FLIGHT!

That is, a survey team, with PR crew aboard, carries up 285 pounds of self-replicating utility fog for each of the 1400 sites. This material extracts useful material from the terrain and doubles in mass every month. At the end of 25 months, the 285 pounds of machinery transforms into 270,000 pounds of machinery for each of the 35,000 future inhabitants arriving next synodic period.

All sites are developed - to the point of a town square - with the remaining parts of the development undone until the site goes live. Only 1% of the 1400 sites go live each year!

What I describe are entry level - economy fares. Larger estates could be purchased at higher prices. More cargo sent at added cost. Return fares available at added cost - but a guaranteed return if not satisfied is part of the bargain. Fine print says you've got to stay there for two synodic periods and undergo a second psychological review - but you can come back if you like. You had to undergo a first psychological review, and a physical review, before being accepted as a client. You do have to have $200,000 and agree to release a $25,000 non refundable fee to go through 'training' - and you have to pass 'training' to be scheduled - part of that is physical and psychological testing - and passing the minimal training requirements. For an added $10,000 - you can try again after taking special extended training- you have five shots at it - with the added cost refunded after success.

People who pay $25,000 per year - can get a round trip to Earth and back - every ten years (five synodic periods) Since the return flights arrive back on Earth 21 months after departing Earth, you have 4 months on planet - before departing again. You can reschedule for the next synodic period - 29 months after you arrive back on Earth - for an added $25,000.

You can undergo hypno training while in stasis - and use artificial stimulation of muscles to build your body - and acquire skills while in stasis - for $20,000. Various surgeries could also take place - to improve one's appearance - various cosmetic surgeries, and one's health - various implants and so forth. So this is an added revenue stream that could take place during the 3 month transit at zero gee in a clean room environment. A small team of doctors could carry out a sizeable number of procedures this way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-E2trjeX8M

This keeps them active and busy, and profitable, during transit, whilst bringing adequate medical skills with them. 14 medical ships each with 80 medicos on board - that serve the fleet of 2300 ships - and become 14 hospitals at the 14 micro-nations that are settled each synodic period.

The medical teams serving 15% of the 35,000 members - earn $105 million - or $1 million each! They can pay for a luxury estate for them and their family. So, that's cool.

Musk operates the First Bank of Mars - this is self-issued planetary credit against the good faith and credit of the people of Mars. This is very similar to what Lincoln developed following his financial advisor Carey to pay for the Civil War.

https://ia802601.us.archive.org/19/i...infr00care.pdf

Updated with modern emergent and electronic techniques to simplify and improve the core system

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOkCXiqnEDA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2mGhfZCemg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igAY9WjAhhk

Basically, on Mars, a dollar is 100 cents and one cent is equivalent to one second of useful time and attention of one person for another. There are a number of other rules to create a peacful prosperous society, but without the costs of legacy systems and Earth history, people of Mars will do quite well, especially by making use of advanced technology as described above and emergent computing technology.

So, every person receives $36 per hour by definition - and trades their time with one another on this basis. Of course a portion of this total capacity is willingly surrendered to innovators and the top 15% who are most productive and creative - which account for about 30% of the total in a healthy economy - the top 1% by this accumulation will consume something like 5% of this total. The top 0.1% will consume 1.5% of this total... giving us a sort of fiscal distribution seen in the wealthiest of nations.

Augmenting this are about 200 robot hours for every human hour. Also, it takes about 1 human hour to get about 2000 high quality robot hours - so 200 robot hours can be had for every 0.1 human hours - and 10% of the population programs, monitors and services robots. At 2000 hours a year, per adult, and 40,000 robot hours per year per adult - $72,000 per year in human time may be earned - and $1,440,000 per year in virtual robot time - may be purchased for $7,200 out of pocket. (Human dollars and robot dollars)

A child born on Mars will work from say 20 to 70 typically - though some may work more others less - and working 2000 hours per year - that's 100,000 hours - and $3.6 million over their life. They will also consume about $72..0 million over their life - in robot human equivalent time. So, lifestyles can be quite high. Of course more capable and aggressive people will work more hours and arrange to build businesses where they can profit on their labour and the labour of others...

A robot works 8766 hours per year - typically - and requires 4.4 hours of human time and attention to maintain peak value. 4.5 robots for every person provides the level of support described here. This is basically the robots on board the ships and built by the utility fog.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igAY9WjAhhk

Twenty-one is the age of majority, a person's parents can spend up 12.5% of their life earnings on them - which is $450,000 human dollars and $9,000,000 robot dollars at this time. Another 12.5% is loaned against future earnings - the same amount - to buy their own estate and pay for education - and buy into a business. One's attitudes are continuously surveyed by AI and shapes the nature of the tensor based currency issued by each person. Each person issues their own currency - and exchanges it in a block chain - totally secure from oversight - through an encrypted web. In this way, money flows to where its needed emergently in response to people's desires and needs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxVbDJ3ERas

High value commodities - jewels, precious metals, unique drugs and spices - are shipped back with each return ship - and in this way materials are extracted from Mars, as aspiring people are extracted from Earth while the bulk of materials are used to build up Mars for its population.


  #7  
Old October 2nd 16, 08:39 AM posted to sci.space.policy
William Mook[_2_]
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Posts: 3,840
Default Musk plans for mars

On Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 11:54:14 AM UTC+13, bob haller wrote:
at some point a nuke booster for travel from earth orbit to mars will be necessary..

to shorten travel time, and lessen supplies for the manned portion of flights.

a realtively small but very fast booster would be nice to have available for emergencies.

hey the water recycler is totally kaput, get earth to sen a replacement immediately!

of course sending one manned vehicle to mars with 2 backups flying close by will also help


Suspended animation, improved virtual reality, in combination with a long-duration second skin type spacesuit, can do much to achieve very efficient travel along hohman transfer orbits from Earth to Mars and back.

Nuclear pulse rockets of the 1950s can be improved dramatically with pyroelectric initiated micronukes using lithium-deuteride. These produce an exhaust in excess of 11,000 km/sec and can be built into a propulsive skin that efficiently controls the direction of beams collimated by plasmoids.

A ship boosting say 1 AU between Earth and Mars (the current distance for example) that's 150 million km approximately. 75 million km of boost, 75 million km to slow. That's 68.7 hours trip time at one gee. It achieves a top speed of 1212 km/sec A total delta vee of 2424. Add another 16 km/sec to escape Earth and land on Mars - this is 2440 km/sec each way. With an exhaust velocity of 11,000 km/sec this means 19.9% take off weight is Lithium-Hydride propellant!

The average cruise ship weighs from 20,000 to 60,000 tons, though cruise ship weights are usually calculated using gross registered tons. One GRT is equal to 100 cubic feet of enclosed revenue-earning space within the ship. Harmony of the Seas has 41.1 tons per passenger. This is 4110 cubic feet per person. So, 1,500 person ship would mass 60,000 tons - and consist of 12,000 tons of Lithium-6 Deuteride. This is 8 tons of propellant per passenger. Lithium hydrosxide costs about $6,000 per ton currently. So, using this as a measure, for Lithium-6 Deuteride, we have $48,000 per passenger for fuel cost. Again, $200,000 - is a reasonable figure - especially if you get a homestead in the bargain - and with 1,500 per trip - that's $300 million per trip. With an average of a one week turnaround - 50 flights per year - that's $15 billion per year per ship. At 600 per day (which was the flight rate considered before) you would need 4200 per week - or three ships in service - to match the fleet of 2300 chemically powered ships carrying folks in suspended animation described previously.

Mining Mars for Lithium-6 Deuteride and building LENR for consumption on Earth - this type of ship would be the poster child for clean fusion energy - made on Mars - used on Earth!

Each ship delivers 500 settlers, 500 returnees, and 500 visitors - this requires 9 ships to match the earlier chemical booster based settlers - departing in fleets of 2300 every 2.1 years. It would take 100 years to populate 1400 cities - at 14 per synodic period - but after 10 or 15 years - we can expect this sort of ship to replace the chemical booster based fleets - and with 90 such ships - all 1400 city states laid out during the first survey team - would be populated in 10 to 20 years thereafter.

Of course with this sort of propulsion and this type of ship - opens up the asteroids to development under similar terms and building large Bishop Ring style colonies among the asteroids.

YEAR POPULATION MINIMUM RATE -

2022 AD 8 billion 1159 ships 1.75 million/week
2033 AD 9 billion 1304 ships 1.96 million/week
2042 AD 10 billion 1449 ships 2.17 million/week
2051 AD 11 billion 1594 ships 2.39 million/week
2058 AD 12 billion 1739 ships 2.61 million/week

We can depopulate the Earth rather quickly, with 4,000 ships of the type just described, and build a very nice lifestyle among the asteroids for those who go there, and be ready to expand outward to the nearby stars - before the end of the 21st century!

http://www.iase.cc/openair.htm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZn5k8_my_o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xA2TmZxIK8

  #10  
Old October 2nd 16, 03:11 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default Musk plans for mars

In article m,
says...

On 2016-10-01 20:29, Alain Fournier wrote:

It isn't easier for a person to be functional after ~3-4 months enclosed
with 5 others to be functional than for the same person to be functional
after the trip with 100 others.


Think space for the "gym". You're not going to be able to keep 100
people fit with just one threadmill and one stationary bike. And you
can't say 24 persons can use the threamill 1 hour each day, so you only
need 4 threadmills because people don't want to exercise just before
they go to bed (otherwise you won't sleep). And since mechanical
exercise devices break down, you also need to have extra machines for
when one breks down until it is repaired.


So the "gym" has 10 treadmills and 10 stationary bikes and everyone
takes turns so that everyone gets 1 hour of exercise each day. And gym
equipment doesn't break down *that* easily. Take a couple of spares
along, just in case.

100 people exercising every day also produces much more CO2, and
increases water requirements (which also increases need for water
reclamation capacity from sweat that has evaporated into cabin air).


This ship is big. It will be sized to handle people exercising for one
hour a day.

The other aspect: once you start to add enough gear to support 100
people for months including the gym, toilets etc, do you really want to
bring all that down to mars and then back up ? Might make sense to have
a lot fo the stuff put in orbit at Mars so you don't have to brakme it
down and accelerate it back up (depending on its mass).


Yes, you want to take it to the surface. Adding more vehicles to the
mix just makes things more complex and complexity drives up cost.


It's not as if you have to unload the ship in 15 minutes. I don't see
a problem here.


How big/bulky would the spacesuits need to be for each passenger?
Shuttle EVA? Sokol?n (not just for the trip, but also to live on Mars.
You,.ll need one to go out to walk the dog every day :-)

And how much autonomy would a suit have to have at time of landing?
(what if it lands off target, 2 hours walking distance from base, and
suits only have 1 hour autonomy ?)


These are details, but if the ship is that big, I wouldn't rule out
designing pressurized shipping containers which can be easily slid out
of a cargo hold and lowered to the surface via a crane.

Jeff
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These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
 




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